NFL Week 4 Match-Ups and Spread Picks

This week features a few key match-ups of unexpected 3-0 teams going on the road with tough match-ups, both the Bills and Lions. Last week we saw the parity in the NFL take center stage with almost every underdog covering.

On to the games...(ATS = Against the Spread)

Detroit Lions +1 at Dallas Cowboys: The Lions proved they can go on the road and win and also come back in tight games. If they win it will be the first 5 game road win streak in the team's history. The public is betting heavy on the Lions with 65.35%, generally a sign this one could be a trap with the Cowboys a fairly good team playing at home. Breaking down the match-up the Cowboys are susceptible to the passing game and doubt Malcolm Jenkins will be able to contain Calvin Johnson at all. Romo will still be without Miles Austin and the Cowboys are ailing with multiple injuries, unable to score TD's in the win on Monday Night, coming off a short week. Detroit has one of the best front 4's in football and should rattle Romo, while I also have concern that Ware could wreak havoc on Stafford. Lions are 5-0 ATS last 5 games, while Dallas is 0-3-1 its last 4 ATS as a favorite.

The Pick: Lions +1 - Have to Side with the "Dumb Money" - Lions are for real

Saints -7.5 at Jaguars: The Saints head to Jacksonville and coming off a big win versus a strong Titans team, and the Jags struggled against the Panthers with rookie QB Gabbert. The public is betting heavy on the Saints with 84.57% of the action, but this could be a trap game, the Saints tend to play down against lesser opponents as seen with the 1-9 ATS record in last 10 vs. teams with a losing record. However, the Jags are 2-9 ATS against teams with winning records. Expect the Saints to throw the ball with Colston and Moore back in the fold, while the Jags depend on MJD to have any chance and he is off to a blazing start. Jags are 4-1 ATS last 5 home games, and are a completely different team at home. Now that Gabbert has one game under his belt, coaches can turn him loose a bit and could see a surprisingly close game here.

The Pick: Jags +7.5

SF 49ers +10 at Philly Eagles: It looked like Vick would be out a few weeks, but now fully expected to be ready for this one, but let's face it, the Eagles have looked terrible all season and lack an O-Line and LB's, two major holes that will continue to be exploited. The 49ers are 2-1 and come in with one of the better Defenses in the league, and Willis will be all over Vick in this one. SF has a terrible Offense which makes this one real tough to call, only managing 13 points against the Bengals, and unlikely to have any success throwing the ball. Only 46.3% of the public betting on the Eagles thus far. 49ers are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, while Eagles are 1-6 ATS last 7 as a favorite. How the NFL has SF travelling to Cincy and then back to Philly is beyond me, and could play a factor.

The Pick: 49ers +10 - Eagles are going to fall apart at the seams after not living up to such high expectations, and doubtful Vick finishes this game.

Redskins -2 at Rams: This is another one that looks too easy, the 2-1 Skins against the 0-3 banged up Rams and 66.7% of the public putting action on the Skins. The states favor them as well with Washington 12-3-1 last 16 ATS as a favorite, and Rams 9-20 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Rams are weak in the secondary so Grossman should have plenty of success, while Redskins are stout defensively and held the Cowboys to 6 FG's, expect the Rams to struggle just as they did last week with the Ravens.

The Pick: Skins -2

Titans at Browns (Pick): This is a match-up of two teams lucky to be 2-1. The Titans have yet to get Chris Johnson going, while the Browns should get Hillis back this week. However, the Titans were impressive with a 26-13 win against Baltimore, but struggle on the road, losing their last 6 by an average of 10 points. 61.8% of the action is betting on the road Titans in this one. Titans are 5-12 ATS against winning record teams, while Browns are 6-0 ATS in last 6 week 4 games, and 10-3 ATS in October, but 0-5-1 last 6 ATS at home. Titans are going to rely on its D to win this one and hopefully get the ground game going against the Browns who are 29th against the run. Titans first game without star wideout Kenny Britt could impact the passing game.

The Pick: Titans Pick-Em - Defense and Pounding he Ball to Sen Tenn. to 3-1, although hate being with the majority on a pick-em

Buffalo Bills -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals: The 3-0 bills on the road as favorites against eh feisty Bengals, in what could be a tricky one with the Bills coming off an emotional hard-fought victory last week. The public is riding the Bills hard with 77.55% of the action. Cincy's two losses came by 5 and 2 points and although weak opponents they play strong defense, run the ball, and Dalton can manage a game. The Bill's Defense has been unimpressive, but their offense has more than made up for it. Bills are 2-5 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite in the last 7, but 9-4-1 in the last 14 ATS overall. Bengals are 4-0 ATS last 4 as underdogs, but for an unusual stat 1-14 ATS in Week 4 games.

The Pick: Cincy +3 - Home Underdog and Bills Due for Let-Down, too Much Action on One Side

Vikings -2.5 at KC Chiefs: A match-up of two 0-3 teams, yet the home team is an underdog, very unusual. However, the Chiefs were blown out in their first two but played the Chargers close last week and starting to deal with some major injuries and get around that, while the Vikings have to be in disarray blowing three straight halftime leads, and many calling for a QB and possibly a coaching change. The Vikings are under-utilizing Peterson and Harvin, but can play Defense. 72.5% of the public is betting Minnesota in this one, and to me it looks like "dumb money" again. Vikings are 4-9 ATS last 13 road games, while Chiefs are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so neither team really has a statistical advantage.

The Pick: Chiefs +2.5 - Going against the public again, see Vikings struggling on the road and KC starting to turn things around.

Carolina +7 at Chicago Bears: Cam Newton secured his first win last week in a monsoon game where the running game finally got going and should have some success against the Bears secondary that let a Tight End score 3 TD's last week and Carolina has Shockey and Olsen. The Bears come in 1-2 and will be looking to get back to even, and should be fired up after losing to the Packers last week. 58.6% of the public betting with the home favorites in this one. Forte should find a lot of room against a D that saw MJD run wild, and Johnny Knox and the Bears special teams could be difference makers. I expect Newton to struggle in this test on the road and make a lot of turnovers. Panthers are 1-6 last 7 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points ATS, while Bears 4-1-1 last 6 ATS as a favorite.

The Pick: Bears -7

Steelers +3.5 at Houston: Two 2-1 teams looking to get over the hump, the Texans blowing a victory last week in New Orleans and a team that excels at home, and the performance last week shows this team is ready to turn a corner. The Steelers pulled out a close on against a terrible Colts team, and Big Ben is making mistakes with a banged up O-Line and the Defense is looking to be lacking energy and youth. Texans get Arian Foster back and look for the screen game to take a toll on Pitt's aggressiveness. 52.7% of the public betting on Pitt in this one. Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 as road underdog, while Houston 5-1-1 last 7 as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Houston -3.5 - Big Ben with 8 Turnovers in 3 Games and Houston D Strong this Year

Atlanta -4.5 at Seattle: Both teams 1-2 and 1-2 ATS this season. We know that Seattle is much better at home, but still a terrible team lacking any running game,and a real QB. 78.3% of the public on Atlanta here with a fairly wide spread, a bit concerning. Atlanta has a team that can compete with the best, but off to a very slow start with offensive line issues, but I look for them to turn things around starting this week with a run-away. Falcons are 11-0 ATS after scoring less than 15 points in previous game, and 10-2 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Seahawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 as home underdog. Seattle can keep this close if they get pressure on Matt Ryan, who has already been sacked 13 times this season.

The Pick: Falcons -4.5 - Atlanta is disappointing me every week, but they are due for an offensive explosion

Giants -1 at Cardinals: After a poor start to the season the Giants with two wins in a row and overcoming injuries, and the D-Line, the strength of the team, starting to get healthy again. Arizona's Kevin Kolb was under pressure all week last week from Seattle in a loss, and difficult to think he will have much success this week. Arizona may be without starting RB Beanie Wells again as well, while the Giants now have 3 WR weapons for Manning and a dual threat at RB. 69.4% of the public betting the Giants, and NY is 28-13 last 41 ATS on road games, while Arizona 7-2 last 9 at home ATS as underdog.

The Pick: Giants -1 - G-Men will put too much pressure on Kolb and win this one with field position - lock of the week

Miami Dolphins +7 at SD Chargers: Miami comes in without Daniel Thomas who has been the team's bright spot as a rookie RB, and although Henne has performed fine, the Defense has been non-existent. When looking at what Brady did to the Dolphins secondary, Rivers should have a field day for the Chargers, typical slow starters that should get rolling this week at home. Public is split with 52.36% on the Chargers, a team 0-3 ATS this season, much of which is due to them being over-rated in the preseason. Dolphins are an impressive 18-7-1 last 26 ATS on the road, but 0-5-1 ATS last 6 overall. Chargers are 23-7 ATS last 30 at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.

The Pick: Chargers -7 - Dolphins remain underrated and will become one of the better 0-4 teams in NFL history, but Chargers offense will be too much in an easy win

Denver +13 at Green Bay: The biggest mis-match of the week and the public betting with 68.6% on Green Bay. Denver has been involved in 3 close games, while Green Bay excited to return home 3-0. However, although Rodgers can spread the field and throw at will on the Broncos, the pass rushing of Dumervil and Von Miller coupled with GB losing its starting right tackle could cause some problems, while Packers also without RB Ryan Grant. Denver's offense is a mess without an attack on the ground or by air, so points will be hard to come by for them although GB has allowed teams to put up points on them this year. Denver is 4-10-1 last 16 ATS overall, and GB is 6-1 ATS last 7 at home, but just 7-18-2 last 27 as 10.5 or more favorite ATS.

The Pick: Denver +13 - Denver will hold GB to some FG's and be able to put up a late TD when the its out of hand to beat the spread

New England Patriots -5 at Oakland Raiders: A rematch of the Snow Bowl that cost the Raiders their rightful trip to the Super Bowl and started the Pat's Dynasty. The Raiders took care of business at home against the Jets last week and are building a bully, a team that can pound the ball with Bush and McFadden, and getting back play-maker Jacoby Ford. The Raiders O-Line is much improved this season, and the D-Line will be able to get pressure on Brady who will make mistakes, as seen with 4 picks last week, and New England without its starting Center. The Raiders have let teams throw the ball at will, and the Pats will be able to put up some numbers, Raiders struggle covering smallish WR's like Welker and Tight End's, with Gronkowski Brady's go-to guy. 69.2% of the public betting the Pats, while the Raiders come in 3-0 ATS this season, still doubters. Pats are 14-6 ATS last 20 as road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while Oakland 9-4 ATS versus teams with winning records, which I can see as they always play the better teams harder. Hue Jackson will have a gameplan to keep Brady on the sidelines and Janikowski could play a big role in this one late.

The Pick: Raiders +5 - My boys been working for me every week and can amtch the Pats offensively and have the better D

Jets +4 at Baltimore Ravens: I am a bit surprised to see the Ravens seeing 60.5% of the betting action. Baltimore has looked fantastic in 2 games, but also had a let-down game against the Titans, who are very similar to the Jets on both sides of the ball. Rex Ryan knows the Ravens and should see his team bounce back strong in this one, keeping Ray Rice under raps. Baltimore's WR's will struggle against the Jets DB's. Jets are 8-3 ATS last 11 after a loss, while Baltimore is 6-2 ATS last 8 as favorite.

The Pick: Jets +4 - Considering I see this game as a coin-toss for who wins, think Jets can definitely keep within a FG

Colts +10.5 at Tampa Bay: Indy coming off a close one to Pitt as big underdogs, but was at home, and set to start Curtis Painter this week at QB, and the Bucs Defense is one of the best so far this season in the NFL, and under-appreciated. It's tough to see Tampa winning by such a margin, winning by 3 and 4 points so far this season, and Monday Night games tend to magically stay close. The public has 57% of the action on the Colts so far. The Colts rely on its pass rush to force turnovers and set-up the team up with good field position, and Freeman has looked shaky thus far. Colts are 7-1 ATS last 8 Monday night games (Manning though) and 14-6-2 last 22 road games. Bucs are 4-1 last 5 ATS overall, but 5-16 ATS last 21 home games.

The Pick: Colts +10.5 - Maybe Painter surprises, either way Colt's D can keep this close enough, and not exactly a hostile playing environment

College 12 Pack - Week 5

There are a few real tight match-ups this week, at least based on National Ranking, so we should be in for another great week of football, although a few of my favorites to bet are off this week, including Oklahoma State and Oregon.

Over-Unders, Parlays, Teasers, etc. will be posted Saturday morning.

*** Note ATS = Against the Spread***

Texas A&M -3 at Arkansas: Texas A&M heads to Arkansas to face a team they can plan on seeing a lot more, joining the SEC next year. A&M blew a big lead in a critical game against Oklahoma State last week at home, and could see a hangover impact from the disappointment. Meanwhile Arkansas' offense was completely shut down by Alabama last week, but returns home, and has enough weapons to put up some points. I was impressed by A&M's QB last week, under-rated, and surprised by his speed running the ball as well. Swope is a Wes Welker type receiver, while Fuller is a beast, reminds me of Vincent Jackson, so I am looking or a high scoring affair. The public is split in this one right now, about 50% on each side. A&M is 7-3 its last 10 ATS, but 0-6-1 ATS its last 7 versus the SEC. The Hogs are 7-2 ATS against the Big 12, and 11-4 ATS its last 15 overall.

The Pick: Arkansas +3 - Statistics, Home Underdog, and Petrino Coaching Advantage

Nevada +27 at Boise St.: Boise St. at home on the blue turf and been putting up 37 a game with Kellen Moore one of the Top 3 QB's in college football. Recent wins against Toledo and Tulsa unimpressive with 25 and 20 point margins. Nevada was beaten by 49 on the road at Oregon to start the year, but stuck in for just a 1 point loss last week at Texas Tech, and somehow now its 4th straight road game to start the season. Boise St. lost to Nevada last year in one of Moore's worst games in his career, and the last 4 have all been close ones, although this years Nevada team is missing a lot of key components from last year. 67.6% of the public picking Boise State in this one. Nevada is 4-1 ATS its last 5 as an underdog, while the Broncos are 12-5 ATS their last 17 overall. Mike Ball could be the difference maker for Nevada, and has the ability to make some big plays running the ball to keep it close.

The Pick: Nevada +27 - Wolfpack are showing progress and face a familiar foe, so I expect them to hang around just enough to cover.

Georgia Tech -10.5 at NC. State: Georgia Tech is 4-0 and has looked extremely impressive with its triple-option offense, a team full of explosive play makers, winning a close one against UNC last week. NC State was destroyed by Cincy 44-14 last week and dealing with an array of injuries, and a team not looking to be much of a threat this year. 76% of the public siding with GT in this one. Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS last 4 as a faovrite, and 8-2 ATS as a road favorite. NC State is 13-6-1 its last 20 ATS at home, but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -10.5 - Too much offense and NC State looks terrible

Michigan State +3.5 at Ohio State: Michigan St. at 3-1 heads to the Big House to face the 3-1 Buckeyes. Michigan St. lost to Notre Dame 31-13 in its only real test of the season, also on the road. Ohio State is still a week away from 4 key players returning from suspension. In this one we have a strong Michigan St. defense, but an offense that can;t run the ball well, and all the pressure on Cousings to Cunningham. Ohio St. is starting its Freshman QB Braxton Miller again, and coming off a solid 37-17 performance against Colorado. Ohio St. also looked poor in its only real test, a 24-6 loss to Miami. Ohio St. seeing 52.5% of the action in this one. Ohio St has handled Mich. St for years, but if there is any year for an upset, it would be this one, although Michigan St.'s O-Line is banged up. Michigan St. is 1-5 ATS its last 6 as a road underdog, and 3-10 overall ATS its last 13 as an underdog. Ohio St. is 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home.

The Pick: Michigan St +3.5 - I'll take the experienced QB in Cousins over Miller in what should be a back and forth battle

Arizona +13 at USC: USC returns home after looking awful on the road at Arizona St in a 43-22 loss. Arizona coming off a 56-31 loss to Oregon, and a game that really made me feel for Nick Foles, the Wildcats QB as talented as any in NCAA FB, but receivers dropped multiple big plays last week. Arizona started the year with the most brutal schedule at OK St. and home versus Stanford and Oregon, so USC will actually be one of its easier match-ups. 56.2% of the public betting with the underdog Wildcats in this one. The last 4 between these 2 teams has ended within a TD. Arizona is 7-3 ATS its last 10 as a 10.5 or more underdog, but 1-5 its last 6 ATS overall. USC is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more in its last 7.

The Pick: Arizona +13 - Wildcats schedule gave them a raw deal, and seeing signs of improvement. Foles to Crines can keep them in this one against an under-achieving Trojan squad.

Baylor -3.5 at Kansas State: The Baylor Bears are for real and RJ Griffin has more TD's than incompletions through 3 games, although against a few suspect opponents. However, this week the Bears head to K-St. to face a strong Wildcats Defense that pulled out a big win at Miami last week. 75% of the public betting on Baylor so far in this one. Baylor is 6-0 ATS as a road favorite, but 1-4 ATS within the Conference. K-St. is 2-5 its last 7 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but 10-4 ATS its last 14 Conf. games.

The Pick: Baylor Bears -3.5 - RJ Griffin will continue to roll and K-St. will suffer a let down after a big win last week.

Auburn +10 at South Carolina: Auburn is 3-1 and pulled out a squeaker in week 1 and its only loss was in Clemson to a very talented team, and at first glance a 10 point spread for a rivalry game looks a bit wide. This match-up will feature two of the better RB's in college football with Lattimore for the 'Cocks and Dyer for the Tigers. South Carolina has not had much success throwing the ball this year, and coming off 3 point wins against Georgia and Navy and just a 21-3 win vs Vandy. 58.4% of the public betting with the Tigers, although Auburn 1-3 ATS this season. Auburn has owned this match-up the last 5 years, and South Carolina is ranked #10 in the Nation, but I think undeservedly. Auburn is 10-1 its last 11 Conf. games ATS, and 4-1 ATS last 5 as underdog. South Carolina 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.

The Pick: Auburn +10 - I would not be surprised to see a big upset win here for Auburn

Clemson +7 at Virginia Tech: Clemson is a team that really has me excited this year, now ranked #13 coming off wins at Home versus Auburn and Florida St. They face another test this week traveling to V. Tech, but Boyd looks great at QB and Watkins is one hell of a playmaker at WR. The Hokies are un-tested, ranked #11 in the country, and yet to face a quality opponent, and I think this spread is really underestimating Clemson. 61% of the public betting with Clemson in this one, and V-Tech 1-3 ATS this season. Clemson 11-2 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, and 19-8 ATS overall as underdog. V-Tech 7-2 last 9 ATS at home.

The Pick: Clemson +7 - Lock of the Week, I think they win this game

Texas -10 at Iowa State: The 17th ranked Longhorns head to Iowa St. who site 3-0 with an impressive start to the season, favored by 9.5. Texas has not earned its ranking yet, a 1 point win vs a BYU team that has turned out to be pretty bad, and a 29 point win at UCLA, a terrible team. Texas has Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. the following 2 weeks and may be looking ahead, and could be an upset victim this week. The Cyclones have won all 3 games, but by a combined 8 points, so they keep things close. Steele Jantz is the QB for Iowa St. and a strong start, but needs to cut back on the 6 interceptions thrown. 58% of the public siding with Texas in this one. Iowa St. beat Texas on the road by 7 last year. Texas is a dismal 4-9 ATS last 13 as a favorite, and 5-16-1 ATS against teams with winning records. Cyclones are 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog.

The Pick: Iowa St +10 at home - underrated team that will keep Texas to a low score and make enough plays on offense.

Washington +10 at Utah: The Huskies are looking good this year, hanging with #11 Nebraska in a 13 point loss, and beating Cal by 8 last week, 3-1 ATS this season while Utah is 1-2 ATS. Utah looked bad on the road at USC with a 9 point loss, but beat BYU 54-10 last week. 53.5% of the public betting with Utah in this one, pretty even mix. I was unimpressed with Utah's offense in the games I have seen, while Washington as exceeded expectations. Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 overall, but Utah 8-2 ATS after a bye week its last 10, but 1-9 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Utah is a run first team and Huskies can defend the run, and should keep the Utah passing game at bay. Utah's best O-Tackle is doubtful with a knee injury, while Washington lost its top pass rusher for the season, but that still favors the Defense.

The Pick: Huskies +10 - Like Price over Wynn at QB

Alabama -3.5 at Florida: The match-up of the week with 'Bama on the road to face-off with a Gators team that has looked much better than I expected this season. Alabama shut down a pretty strong Arkansas offense last week and has the best D in the country, great playmakers in the secondary and plenty of NFL caliber players. On offense Alabama will control the ground game and McCarron will manage the game, but that may not be enough in this one. Florida has not really played a quality opponent yet this year, and after this one heads to LSU, basically facing the best 2 teams int he country back to back weeks. Brantley and Rainey are the playmakers for Florida, but life will be tough against the Crimson Tide. 68.7% of the public betting on Alabama in this one. Alabama has owned the last two match-ups. Crimson Tide are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road, but 1-4 ATS last 5 as 3.5 to 10 point road favorite. Florida is 7-3 last 10 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: Alabama -3.5 - Defense wins against an untested Gators team unlikely to make the big plays needed.

Nebraska +9.5 at Wisconsin: The second best match-up of the week with #7 and #8 squaring off the Cornhuskers head to Wisconsin for the first time in the Big 10. Nebraska is fairly inexperienced on the O-Line and in the Secondary, and has not faced an opponent even 1/2 as good as the Badgers this season. Wisconsin is also un-tested this season, but at home and Wilson, Ball, and Toon one of the most potent threesomes in the country. The odds-makers not being very kind to Nebraska, possibly because they are 1-3 ATS this season, while Badgers are 3-0-1 ATS. 54.4% of the public betting on Wisconsin, a slight bias. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS last 5 as underdog and 6-2 last 8 ATS on the road. Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS as a favorite and 10-0-1 ATS overall in last 11.

The Pick: Wisconsin -9.5 - Taylor Martinez is only one man and Badgers will box him up, while Wisconsin has weapons at every position and experience is enough to win this one at home by 2 TD's.


Bonus Picks:

Miss. St +7 at Georgia: I like the Miss. St. team a lot, tons of talent and think they can keep it close against a Georgia D that has been iffy.

TCU -13 vs SMU: Young and talented TCU squad starting to gel.

Arizona St. -18 vs Oregon St.: Beavers are terrible this year and Sun Devils just thrashed USC, should be a run-away.

College Football Thursday/Friday Primetime Games

Thursday Night

South Florida -2.5 at Pitt: South Florida is the best team you may have not heard of, and began the year with a 23-20 win at Notre Dame. Pitt looked pretty good against Notre Dame, but lost 15-12 and was at Home. Pitt has a good running game with Graham, but the Defense has holes and South Florida knows how to score. BJ Daniels can throw and run as a QB and has been solid to start the year. South Florida on the road as a favorite in a rivalry game makes for a tough situation, but one they should overcome.
South Florida is 5-0 against the spread its last 5 road games, but 0-6 against the spread on Thursday games. Pitt is 1-5-1 its last 7 against the spread on Thursday games, but 12-4 against the spread its last 16 conference games.

The Pick: Stick with the Hot Hand, South Florida -2.5

Houston -15.5 at El Paso: The 4-0 Cougars leading the nation in passing with Keenum at the helm will look to stay undefeated at El Paso. Houston began the year with a win against UCLA, so this Conf. USA team is competitive, but has had close games when on the road. UTEP lost to South Florida by 28 last week, and to New Mexico St. by 6 the week prior, 2-2 on the year. UTEP will get back DE and S starters that were missing last week, but fate of starting QB Lamaison still in the air. If a banged up UTEP team only lost to South Florida by 28 on the road, we could see them keep this one relatively close against Houston. Houston is 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 favored by 10.5 or more, but 1-7 against the spread on turf and 3-12 its last 15 on the road as a favorite against the spread. UTEP is 4-1 against the spread its last 5 as an underdog.

The Pick: UTEP +15.5

Friday Night:

Utah State +8 at BYU: BYU has been unpredictable, a close loss to a strong Texas team, and then destroyed 54-10 against Utah, but rebounding last week to beat UFC 24-17, though not convincingly. I like BYU's QB Heaps, but the inability to run the ball makes it tougher to make big plays in the passing game. Utah State is 5th in the country in rushing and could really control this game's temp, and rank 14th in the country for scoring offense. Utah State is a team that should have knocked off Auburn in week 1, but lost a heart breaker last week to Colorado State, so it's a matter of what team will show up. Utah State is 4-0 against the spread its last 4 road games, but 1-6 its last 7 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. BYU is 1-4 against the spreads its last 5 Friday games, and 5-15-1 against the WAC.

The Pick: Utah State +8 - Completely Different Styles, I Take the Running Game


A Wager: Tease South Florida, UTEP and Utah State 6 Points for SOuth Florida +3, UTEP +21.5 and Utah State +14

NFL Week 3 Wagers

Betting Trends: Public betting heavy on Bills, Lions, and Ravens, and Miami moves from +3 to -1.5 after Peyton Hillis declared inactive. The heavy favorites, Chargers and Steelers have me a bit nervous to cover.

Along with spread picks posted previously, a few other wagers:

7 Team 7 Point Teaser +800

Put this in last night, lines may have changed some, but was Texans +11, Eagles -2, Miami +10, Atlanta -8, Pitt -4, SF +10 and Arizona +3.5

4 Team Dog 6.5 Point Teaser at +250

Giants +15.5, Bears +11, Jags +10, Broncos +13.5

4 Team Straight Parlay - Pays 10X

Raiders +3, Falcons +1, Texans +4, Lions -3.5

Over-Under Bets

* Broncos - Titans Under 44

* Jags - Panthers Over 43.5

* San Diego - Kansas City Over 44.5

* Falcons - Bucs Under 45

Player Props

* Cam Newton 13/2 Most Passing Yards 1pm Games

* Daniel Thomas Most Rushing Yards 1pm Games at 12/1

* Kenny Britt Most Receiving Yards 1pm Games at 6/1

* Cedric Benson Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

* AJ Green Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

* Steve Johnson Over 70 Receiving Yards

* Rivers Over 292 Passing Yards

* Dustin Keller Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

* Boldin Over 4 Receptions

NFL Week 3 Match-Ups and Spread Picks

I will update some parlays, player props, and over/under plays before kick-off tomorrow, but want to break down this week's games:

SF. 49ers +3 at Cincy Bengals: The Niners have looked pretty solid their first two games and have a playoff caliber defense, while the offense is still lacking. The Bengals have exceeded expectations and Dalton to Green a combo we should see for years ahead, but the team with plenty of turmoil this week with Simpson and Benson legal issues. I think SF can keep this close with its Defense, even with the West to East trip, and possibly even pull out a road win. 49ers are 0-7-2 last 9 as underdog of 0.3 to 3 against the spread, and Bengals are 5-0 against the spread its last 5 overall, but 6-21 last 27 against the spread as a favorite.

The Pick: SF +3

NE Patriots -7.5 at Buffalo Bills: The scrappy Bills are home for a showdown with the Pats, looking to prove they are for real. The Bills pulled out a second half comeback last week, although a lot of home-filed love from the Refs. The Pats look vulnerable on Defense with both the Dolphins and Chargers putting up big numbers, and Fitzpatrick has the ability to pick apart defenses, so look for a shootout. The Bills Defense will be the X-Factor, and its much improved D-Line and Linebackers will look to pressure Brady who has been known to have "happy-feet" and gets rattled. If the Bills come out flying they can set the tone and stay in this game. Pats are 4-0 as a road favorite against the spread, while Buffalo is 7-3 last 10 against the spread vs AFC opponents, but 2-10-1 last 13 against the spread as a home underdog.

The Pick: Pats -7.5

Houston Texans +4 at New Orleans Saints: The Texans are still not receiving a lot of love from Vegas, a 4 point underdog, but are going into a hostile environment for their biggest test of the year. The Saints still have no running game and Houston will get pressure on Brees, and should do a fairly good job of containing the Saints offense. I see a bigger mis-match with the Texans offense against the Saints defense, similarities to when the Packers lit them up in Week 1. With or without Foster, the Texans will move the ball without a problem and look to cover the spread in what should be a game that comes down to the last play. Texans are 1-6 last 7 against the spread at an underdog, while Saints 4-1 against the spread as home favorite in last 5.

The Pick: Texans +4

NY Giants +9 at Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants come in off a short week and already with a ton of injuries on Defense, will be without Manningham for this game. The Eagles Defense is sure to make it a long day for the Giants, unless they can get Bradshaw and Jacobs going early. Vick is banged up for the Eagles but should be fine come game time, and too much talent here, and Philly should be rocking for a comfortable win. Giants are 2-5 last 7 against the spread as an underdog and Eagles 3-7 last 10 at home against the spread, and 1-5 last 6 against the spread as a favorite, but 7-3 last 10 after allowing 30 points or more in prior game.

The Pick: Eagles -9

Miami Dolphins +3 at Cleveland Browns: Miami comes in 0-2, but two strong efforts against good teams, the Pats and Texans, and rookie RB Daniel Thomas looks to be the real deal, while Brandon Marshall and Bess will provide match-up problems for the Browns Defense. Miami is without pro bowl corner Vontae Davis, but Cleveland lacks many weapons to take advantage of that and Hillis is the majority of the Browns offense, and missed practice this week due to illness. I like Miami on the road to get it's first Win. Dolphins are 6-0-2 last 8 against the spread as road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points, and 8-2 overall on the road against the spread, but 0-5 against the spread last 5 on grass. Browns are 3-7 against the spread last 10 as a favorite.

The Pick: Miami +3

Denver Broncos +7 at Tenn. Titans: Two under-achieving teams to start the year, though the Titans came away victorious against the Ravens in a shocker, and look for this to be the game that Chris Johnson gets things going, a Defense that was gashed by McFadden in week 1. Tennessee is not really a team you can see this year as winning by wide margins, so a tough one with a 7 point spread. The Titans big O-Line will wear on Denver and allow them to pull-away, while Orton is likely to struggle on the road without many of his weapons. Denver is 1-5 last 6 against the spread on the road, and Titans are 12-4 last 16 against the spread in September.

The Pick: Titans -7

Detroit Lions -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings: Detroit put up big numbers last week and has one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and although the Vikings have played solid Defense the first two weeks, they could struggle this week with match-ups in the secondary. The Vikings need to control the clock, and will look to Peterson early and often, while McNabb needs to start making plays down the field, but frankly I do not see that happening against the Lions with Suh leading the way up front and the D-Line likely forcing multiple turnovers in this one. Lions are 12-3-1 last 16 against the spread vs the NFC, and Vikings 2-8 last 10 against the spread vs NFC.

The Pick: Lions -3.5

Jaguars +3.5 at Carolina Panthers: The Jags are on the road and are putting rookie QB Gabbert into the fire, a decision that is questionable, usually coaches would debut a rookie in a home game. Cam Newton has the Panthers offense rolling, and put up a good fight against the Packers last weekend, and will stack the box to take away MJD and force Gabbert to beat them. If Newton avoids interceptions, he should lock up his first NFL win.

The Pick: Panthers -3.5

KC Chiefs +15 at San Diego Chargers: A big spread in this one with the Chiefs coming in after two blowout losses and now without star RB Charles for the year. San Diego is looking to bounce back from a loss to the Pats and should have plenty of space to make plays against a weak Chiefs Defense in what looks like a blowout, although AFC West games tend to stay close. I just can't see the Chiefs putting up much of a fight and look for the Chargers to make a statement after the Chiefs won the division last year. Chiefs are 10-2 against the spread last 12 as a 10.5 or more point underdog, but 0-5 last 5 against the spread vs. AFC West. Chargers are 2-8 against the spread last 10 as a 10.5 point or more favorite. Numbers point to chargers not having a killer instinct is games as a heavy favorite.

The Pick: Chargers -15

NY Jets -3 at Oakland Raiders: I have been seeing this one as an upset special all week, partially because I am a Raiders die-hard, but also because I like the match-ups, especially with the Jets missing center Nick Mangold, a team leader and pillar on the O-Line, facing an aggressive Raiders D-Line. The Raiders remain without top play-maker Jacoby Ford, but get Kevin Boss back at Tight End for his debut in Silver and Black. Oakland's offense is dynamic and look for them to pound it against a "soft" Rex Ryan defense. The Jets offense is likely to struggle on the ground, forcing Sanchez to make plays, but in the Black Hole he is going to make some key mistakes that keep the Raiders in this one. The only thing that scares me is that this is becoming a popular upset pick this week. Jets are 6-1 last 7 against the spread as a road favorite, and 12-5 against the spread last 17 road games. Raiders are 4-1 against the spread last 5 overall, but just 5-21-2 against the spread as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog, though 8-3 overall against the spread last 11 as an underdog.

The Pick: Raiders +3

Baltimore Ravens -4.5 at St. Louis Rams: The Rams are a team that was thought to be set for a breakout season, but now 0-2 and an ugly Monday Night performance against the Giants, and now looking at an 0-3 start with the Ravens not happy about a loss to the Titans last week. Ray Rice should have a field day, and although Lee Evans is out, expect Boldin to score twice. St. Louis is without its running game and the Ravens will be teeing off on Bradford, and this one could get ugly. Ravens are 10-1 against the spread last 11 following a game with less than 90 yards rushing, and Rams are 1-5 against the spread overall in last 6 games.

The Pick: Ravens -4.5

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Falcons are coming off a big win against the Eagles, which followed a terrible performance against the Bears, and still have not even cracked the surface of its potential. Julio Jones is going to be a star and Roddy White is ready to get going, and the Bucs Defense struggled against the Lions in week 1 and did not look too sharp last week. The Bucs Offense is also struggling, Freeman off to a poor start and poor decision making and teams doubling up Mike Williams seeing a lack of other weapons outside. Atlanta should go into Tampa and escape with a win, although it should be a fairly tight one. Falcons 4-1 last 5 against the spread on the road, and 8-3 overall, while Bucs are 5-17 against the spread their last 22 home games.

The Pick: Falcons +1

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks: A game that no-one will be watching, two terrible teams, although the Cardinals showing signs of life and clearly the more talented team in this one, but possibly without RB Beanie Wells. Seattle has no QB and relies on the run, and Lynch has no chance against 8-man fronts. Seattle is going to get embarrassed at home and some decisions have to be made, unless they are already looking forward to getting Andrew Luck with the first pick next year. Cardinals are 0-5 against the spread in the NFC West their last 5, while Seattle 2-6 last 8 against the spread overall.

The Pick: Arizona -3.5

GB Packers -4 at Chicago Bears: A big showdown and some disrespect to the Bears, a 4 point dog at home in a division rivalry. Chicago will look to get back at Green Bay for the loss in the playoffs last season, and look to slowdown the Pack's spread offense that is putting up video-game numbers. Chicago depends on Forte to get its offense going, and although unhappy, he is one of the best backs in the NFL, but Green Bay has one of the toughest defenses in the league. I have no faith or confidence in Jay Cutler to make plays against a top 5 NFL defense, and the Bears lost by 17 to a team Green Bay beat by 7 and struggled against that Defense, a bad sign, although that was on the road. Green Bay has not exactly been dominant this year, and struggled on the road against Carolina last week, making it tough not to take a 4 point home underdog playoff-caliber team. The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 and the Bears are 8-20 their last 28 against the spread as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: Packers -4

Steelers -11 at Colts: The Steelers should have their way with the Colts running and throwing while Kerry Collins has been exceptional at turning the ball over, and the Steelers will be hungry in the Sunday night game, so look for a run-away, the Colts also sniffing for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with Manning's future in jeopardy. I can't see the Colts putting more than 13 on the board and Pitt is good for 27 easy. Steelers are 5-0 last 5 against the spread as a favorite, and Colts are 9-2 against the spread last 11 as a 10.5 or more underdog.

The Pick: Steelers -11

Redskins +6.5 at Cowboys: This spread seems a bit odd to me, Cowboys banged up with Austin out, Jones likely out, Bryant hurting and Romo banged up, and the Skins are 2-0 and playing great ball with Grossman at the helm. The Cowboy's Defense will get a ton of pressure and force Sexy Rexy into his typical mistakes, but Hightower and Helu should be able to find running room to take over the tempo of the game early. This feels like a FG game to me, so have to take the 6.5 point dog, though I prefer a 7 point spread. Skins are 0-4 their last 4 Monday Night games against the spread, while Dallas is 1-5 their last 6 against the spread on Monday night, but 6-1 their last 7 against the spread on turf.

The Pick: Skins +6.5

Good Luck this Week and Enjoy the Games!

College Football Wagers for Week 4

Along with the picks in the prior post, I like to put on some parlays and look at the over/under plays:

* Parlay SD St. +10.5, Notre Dame -7.5, Kansas St +13.5, Colorado +17, Arkansas +11 with a 6.5 Point Teaser, Pays 5:1

* Parlay Clemson -2.5, OK ST +4 with 6 Point Teaser

* Parlay Oklahoma -20.5, West Virginia +7, USC +2.5

* UNC/Georgia Tech Under 58
* Notre Dame / Pitt Under 56
* Clemson / FSU Over 48
* Missouri / Oklahoma Over 57

College 10 Pack - Week 4

Another solid week last week going 8-3, one of those losses Tennessee which was 0.5 points away from covering, also costing me a parlay, and another was BYU who was extremely disappointing, bad call on that one.

We have some huge Conference Rivalry Match-ups this week, so "Getcha Popcorn Ready"

San Diego St. +10.5 at Michigan: A 3-0 Mountain West team comes into the Big House where the Wolverines are a surprising 3-0, and look to prove themselves. SD. St has wins against Cal Poly, Army, and Washington St., not exactly powerhouses. Denard Robinson is a 1-man wrecking crew for Michigan, and the team will only go as far as he can. SD. St should be fired up about facing its old coach now at Michigan. SD St. is 5-1 against the spreads it last 6 non-conference games, and its last 6 as a road underdog. Michigan is 0-7 against the spread at home against teams with winning records, but 8-2 its last 10 non-conference games.

The Picks: The Aztecs have something to prove and will keep it close, SD St. +10.5

UNC +7 at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is the highest scoring team in the country, and leading rushing team with three players already over 200 yards rushing. However, the wins came against Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee and Kansas, so the road is much tougher ahead, but enough to earn them a #25 ranking. The Yellow Jackets are an explosive, big-play team, but UNC does come in undefeated at 3-0 as well, wins against James Madison, Rutgers, and Virginia. UNC has some strength on Defense with 4 starters projected to be high picks in the NFL Draft next year. UNC is 18-7 its last 25 against the spread as an underdog, while GT is 5-1 its last 6 against the spread as a favorite, but just 1-5 at home as a 3.5-10 point favorite.

The Pick: Although at home the Yellow Jackets face their first real test of the year, and I expect a Win, but only by 4 points, so UNC +7

Kansas St. +13 at Miami: Miami is coming off of a dominating 24-6 win over Ohio St, although lost its opener on the road at Maryland. With Harris back at QB this is a better Hurricanes team, although he needs to cut back on the mistakes. K-St comes in 2-0 with wins over Eastern Kentucky and Kent St, not a very impressive resume. The Wildcats could be looking ahead to a showdown at home against Baylor next week. This is the first meeting between these two teams. K-St. is 4-1 against the spread its last 5 as a road underdog, but 7-20 against the spread its last 27 non-conference games. Miami is 7-1 its last 8 against the spread vs. the Big 12, but 1-4 the last 5 as a 10.5 or more favorite. K. St is the top ranked Defense in the nation in terms of yardage and scoring, although against sub-par teams, but the team has quite a few transfers that are getting a feel for the system and the team is starting to put things together.

The Pick: Miami is coming off of an emotional win and K. St. can do enough right in this game to win the turnover battle and keep it close. K. St +13

Arkansas +11 at Alabama: The 14th ranked Hogs head to #3 ranked Alabama as a big rivalry against the vaunted defense of the Crimson Tide. Arkansas' offensive line is a liability in this one. Arkansas is putting up big offensive numbers so far this year, but against New Mexico, Missouri St. and Troy, so in for a much tougher battle this week. Arkansas had a big upset in the bad last year against Alabama, but blew it in the final minutes. The Razorbacks special teams may be a difference maker, a unit that has scored 3 times this year already. Alabama's running attack and stellar defense give them the advantage in this one, but the spread makes it a tough call, but a run heavy low scoring game would favor the 11 point dog in a rivalry game. Arkansas is 10-1 its last 11 against the spread in conference games, 8-1 on grass, and 15-7 as a 10.5 or more underdog. Alabama is 4-1 its last 5 as a 10.5 point or more favorite, and 8-3 against the spread as a home favorite.

The Pick: Leaning towards Arkansas +11 due to the style of game expected, and Tyler Wilson should do enough for the Hogs with his WR weapons to keep them in this one, so Arkansas +11.

Florida St +2.5 at Clemson: Clemson is now ranked #21 after an upset against Auburn, breaking Auburn's 17 game win streak and Clemson is an explosive team. Florida St. comes to Clemson after a disappointing 23-13 loss to Oklahoma, the best team in the country. Florida St.s QB EJ Manuel is questionable for the game along with two of its top WR's. Fllorida St. has not won at Clemson since 2001 and could be facing Clemson with a Freshman QB. Tajh Boyd is on a record pace for Clemson at QB. Both teams offensive lines have been allowing sacks, likely a factor in this game. FSU is 1-5 against the spread its last 6 conference games, while Clemson is 2-8 its last 10 as a 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Clemson -2.5 if FSU is without Manuel at QB, otherwise FSU +2.5 with Manuel

Oklahoma St. +4 at Texas A&M: This is going to be the best game of the week in my view, and I am an OSU fan, but will attempt to stay partial. A match-up of #7 and #8 with A&M having the home-field advantage. A&M has faced Idaho and Southern Methodist, not a challenge, and comes in with Cyrus Gray as a top RB in the Nation. OK St. is averaging 408 passing yards a game, experienced Weeden at QB and the best WR in the nation in Justin Blackmon, while also boasting an impressive running game with Randle. OK. St is off to a 3-0 start with wins vs. Arizona, Louisiana Lafayette, and Tulsa. 4 of the last 5 games when these two met have finished within 5 points, always a close game. The line has been moving in favor of A&M with a 3 point spread up to 5 at some books. A&M lost last year thanks to 5 turnovers, but comes into this one with home-field advantage and the better defense. OK St. is 6-0 against the spread its last 6 road games, but 1-7 against the spread as an underdog. A&M is 6-0 against the spread its last 6 conference games.

The Pick: Texas A&M -4 (Against my Heart, but the differences in the Defenses and Home-Field play a Big Part)

Nevada +15.5 at Texas Tech: Texas Tech off to a 2-0 start with 54.5 points averaged, its passing attack clicking on all cylinders. Nevada was beaten by Oregon 69-20, a similar style offense, so the WolfPack could struggle again this week. Texas Tech is 4-0 as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points, against the spread, and I look for them to gash this defense.

The Pick: Texas Tech -15.5

Rice +20.5 at Baylor: Rice is coming off an upset win against Purdue, while Baylor is ranked #19 and becoming one of the more exciting stories in College Football, RJ Griffin to K. Wright connection lighting it up, beginning the season with a 50-48 win vs TCU and then an easy 48-0 win vs Stephen Austin last week. Baylor at home for its 3rd straight game this week. Rice is -5 against the spread its last 5 road underdog games, and 8-19 in non conference games. The Baylor Bears are just 1-4 against the spread its last 5 games overall. Rice's defense is 104th ranked nationally and Baylor historically beats Rice by 20, and this is the best Baylor team in years.

The Pick: Baylor -20.5, too much offense

LSU -6 at West Virginia: Another great match-up with #2 ranked LSU who has already defeated strong Oregon, and Miss. St teams heading to West Virginia for a SEC/Big-East Showdown. West Virginia got off to a strong start against Maryland last week, but almost choked, and really has not seen a Defense near as good as LSU's. LSU will force West Virginia to be one dimensional, shutting down the run, and is likely to shutdown WVU. LSU's offense has been less than impressive, still without starting QB Jefferson, but Lee filling in and getting the job done. WVU is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog, but 0-3-1 its last 4 at home against the spread.

The Pick: LSU -6 - Game should be close, but LSU should pull this out by a TD with an untested WVU team in for a treat with LSU's killer Defense

Oregon -16 at Arizona: The Ducks have shaken off the LSU defeat to come back with two dominating performances, although against two terrible teams. It begins its quest for the Pac-12 title on the road in Arizona, a Wildcats team that lost by 23 on the road against the OK St. Cowboys, and by 27 last week at home against Stanford. Nick Foles is a more than capable QB, but this could be a pride game for Oregon, wanting to beat up on Zona by more than the Cardinals did last week, and Foles has had zero help from his running game nor offensive line. However, Oregon's Defense is not all that impressive, so the Wildcats should be able to score some points. Oregon is is only 2-5-1 its last 8 as a favorite against the spread, while Arizona is 6-0 as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.

The Pick: Arizona +16 (A Numbers Game based on Statistics, Tough One to Call)

College Football Thursday/Friday Primetime Games

Thursday Night

Match-Up: North Carolina St. +8 at Cincinnati

Analysis: The Bearcats are averaging 51 points per game, scoring 72 against Austin Peay and 59 against Akron, not exactly powerhouses, while losing 45-23 to Tennessee. Cincy has a balanced attack, and plenty of offensive weapons. NC St. is also 2-1 with wins against Liberty and South Alabama, and a loss to Wake Forest. Neither team has a quality win, so tough to judge the outcome of this one. NC. St comes in with a ton of injuries of Defense, which could be the difference in this game with Cincy having the ability to put up points. This one may be best to look at statistical trends, Cincy 0-5 against the spread vs. teams with a winning record and 0-4 their last 4 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. NC St. is 3-0-1 their last 4 against the spread on the road as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: NC St. +8

Friday Night




Match-Up: Central Florida +3 at BYU Cougars

Analysis: BYU really disappointed me last week in a 54-10 loss to Utah, coming off a week when they should have beaten Texas, so inconsistency here. Central Florida comes in un-tested with a 62-0 win against Charleston Southern, and 30-3 against Boston College, and a 17-10 loss to Florida International. BYU is the more talented team, and should have a chip on its shoulder after that loss to Utah with 7 turnovers, so expect them to bounce back at home. Central Florida is 13-3 against the spread its last 16 on the road, while BYU is 0-4 against the spread their last 4 Friday games, but 6-2 against the spread in non-conference games.

The Pick: BYU -3 (Fool me Once....I'll see if they fool me again)

NFL Week 2 Wagers

Along with the Picks Posted Previously, Looking at a few Parlays and Over/Under Worth Considering Today:

* Parlay Redskins -4, Tampa Bay +3, Packers -10.5

* Parlay Raiders +4, Lions -9, Houston -3

* Detroit/Kansas City Over 45.5

* Raiders/Bills Under 43

* Packers/Panthers Over 46

Player Props

* 1pm Most Passing Yards: Rodgers 7/2

* 1pm Most Rushing Yards: Peyton Hillis 10/1

* 1pm Most Receiving Yards: Steve Johnson 10/1

* Hightower Over 72.5 Rushing Yards

* Boldin Over 4.5 Receptions

* Jimmy Graham Over 50.5 Yards Receiving

* Felix Jones Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

College Football Wagers

Using the picks posted in the 10-Pack put on some parlays, so I have:

1) Temple +7, Tenn +9.5, Duke +7

2) Washington +17, Texas Tech -21, Houston -7

3) BYU -4, OK St -14, Stanford -1O

Over/Under Worth a Look:

Wisconsin/Northern Illinois Under 65

Florida/Tenn Over 52

Texas/UCLA Under 46

Arizona St./Illinois Under 57

Oklahoma/Florida St Under 55

Stanford/Arizona Under 56

NFL Week 2 Match-Ups and Spread Picks

Week 1 was definitely full of surprises as expected with the league having so much parity, and the poor performances by the Steelers, Browns and Falcons caught me by surprise, but took wins in all the Prime-time games to finish 8-8 for the week, while my goal is 11-5 or better each week, so need to make up for it this week!

Chicago Bears +7 at New Orleans: The Bears were impressive against the Falcons last week on both sides of the ball, while the Saints were impressive Offensively, but not defensively against the Packers. Chicago will look to give Forte a heavy workload and should find room to put up points, while also being able to put pressure on Brees and limit the damage. Tough road game for the Bears, but I see them keeping it close.

The Pick: Chicago +7

Kansas City +8.5 at Detroit: Detroit is coming off a big win in Tampa, a team that rarely won road games the past 5+ years, while Kansas City was embarrassed by the Bills in its home stadium. Detroit has twice the offensive fire power as the Bills, so that equates to an 80+ point performance, kidding, but in perspective. The Chiefs will look to establish the run, but Detroit has one of the best D-Line's in the game and will really cause havoc.

The Pick: Lions -8.5 (Over 46)

Jacksonville Jaguars +9 at NY Jets: It appears that the Jags will be without their starting Tight End and WR, and their main weapon is MJD, who the Jets will be sure to key on, and the Jags will struggle to score. The Jags D was impressive against a Titan's team, aside from a couple freak plays and the Jets offense is less than spectacular, so look for a low scoring game, and with a 9 point spread this would usually favor the underdog, and the spread was +10 earlier this week, more favorable for the Jags to cover. Santonio Holmes could miss the game for the Jets as well.

The Picks:: Jets -9 (I would probably say Jags if you get +10 though) - Under 39.5

Oakland Raiders +3.5 at Buffalo Bills: I have to lead with the fact I am a huge Raiders fan, and tend to always bet with them. They got a raw deal having to play a Monday Night late game and then play an early game on the East Coast, so the cards are stacked against them, and throw in the fact that the officials seem keen on making them the most penalized team in the NFL by a wide margin once again, and it makes for a tough game. The Bills are coming off an impressive performance and will look to give the rowdy fans something to cheer about. Buffalo has a much improved run defense, and that is Oakland's bread and butter, the passing game with Campbell still concerns me. The Raiders D is very under-rated and can rush the passer as good as any team with an 8 man rotation and stuffs the run. The Raiders should be able to match-up well against all of the Bills offensive players, and Stevie Johnson the biggest threat is a bit banged up.

The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (Under 42)

Arizona Cardinals +4 at Washington Redskins: I consider the Cardinals to be one of the worst teams in the league and will be unable to do much against a Skins D that shut down the Giants. Grossman should light up the Cards like Newton did, and Hightower in for a big day.

The Pick: Washington -4

Baltimore -6.5 at Tennessee: Baltimore dismantled the Steelers while Tennessee played weak against the Jags, so it seems like an easy pick here, but not so fast. Baltimore should have its way on D and stuff the Titans running and passing attack, while Flacco and Rice should dice up the Titans D like MJD did last week. Wait, maybe it was that easy.

The Pick: Baltimore -6.5

Seattle +14.5 at Pittsburgh: The Steelers will be out for redemption after taking a drubbing last week at the hands of the Ravens, and will look to prove that game to be a fluke. Seattle played with the 49ers until the Special Teams blunders, but really has zero chance in terms of talent. Expect the Steelers to put up 30+ and potentially shut the SeaHawks out.

The Pick: Pitt -14.5

Green Bay Packers -10.5 at Caroline Panthers: Welcome to the NFL Cam Newton! Last week he faced a Cardinals team that's Defense was not much better than what he saw in the SEC. However, Green Bay let the Saints move the ball up and down the field on them. Basically Carolina will be unable to stop the Packers, they may not punt all game and expect a 40+ point performance. Carolina may stick around early, but turnovers and mistakes will let the Pack pull away and cover.

The Pick: Packers -10.5 (Over 45.5)

Tampa Bay +3 at Minnesota: The Bucs are a good team and I would take them with the money line, so that ruins any surprise I had in store here. McNabb looked terrible last week and Peterson can only do so much, while the Bucs have plenty of weapons to put up numbers.

The Pick: Tampa +3

Cleveland Browns -3 at Indy Colts: Who would have ever thought the Browns would be a favorite on the road against the Colts, how quickly things change when you lose your franchise QB. Looking at last week the Browns lost to a terrible team, while the Colts were clubbed by a great team. Expect Indy to bounce back and have some success this week, and too unusual of a spread not to take the Colts. I had high hopes for the Browns coming into the year, but already gave up on them, so prove me wrong!

The Pick: Colts +3

Dallas Cowboys -3 at SF 49ers: The Cowboys looked good last week against the Jets but may be without Dez Bryant this week, though I think he will man-up and play. The 49ers beat a poor Settle team with Ted Ginn's return ability, and still think they lack a QB to take them anywhere. Expect Felix Jones to have a good game catching the ball out of the backfield. SF has a great Defense, but not enough to allow them to stay within a FG.

The Pick: Dallas -3 (Under 42.5)

Houston -3 at Miami Dolphins: Houston showed last week that they are not messing around and should get Arian Foster back this week. Miami was able to move the ball last week, but its Defense looked terrible and unlikely to have much more success this week with Andre Johnson coming to town. Houston is also stout defensively and has enough team speed to contain Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall. Look for another strong performance out of the Texans.

The Pick: Houston -3

SD Chargers +7 at New England Patriots: The Pats live for these games, a team considered a "contender" in the AFC coming into their home turf. Expect no mercy to be shown and Brady should pick apart a SD team lacking a great pass rush and secondary, while key injuries to the Chargers also will take a toll. SD almost lost to the Vikings, who are not a very strong team, and expect the Pats D to put in a much better performance, Henne last week was an outlier, took them by surprise.

The Pick: Pats -7 (Some Books at -6.5 or lower, and feel much better at that spread)

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 at Denver Broncos: The spread started closer to 5.5 so some money moving into the Bengals. Denver played fairly well in its loss to the Raiders, while the Bengals were a surprise winner. Dalton is expected to play and looked good early last week, a surprise, but faces a much better Defense this week. Denver may be without Moreno, but expect them to exploit the passing game, although Cincy's D is under-rated and has play-makers with Leon Hall in the secondary.

The Pick: Bengals +3.5 - Potential for a Wild Upset as Orton Struggles and Hears a Boo

Eagles -3 at Atlanta Falcons: Michael Vick should be amped up for his return to Atlanta, and the Falcons looked terrible last week, although I still consider them Super Bowl contenders if the O-Line will make some blocks. Matt Ryan could struggle against the Eagles blitzing and improved secondary could take away Roddy White. The Falcons were unable to stop Cutler and Company, so good luck against Philly.

The Pick: Eagles -3

Rams +6 at NY Giants: The Rams come in after sustaining a few key injuries, but Bradford will be playing and still some weapons on offense. The Giants are coming off a lousy performance and will look to establish the run, but the health of Hakeem Nicks will be key to this game. A Monday nighter, so I expect the Rams to stay in this one until the very end, exploiting some of the holes int he Giants D caused by the injury bug.

I will look to update this post later on with some of the Betting Trends and Money Flows into Sunday.

College Football 10 Pack - Week 2

I set the bar high last week with an 8-1-1 performance. I will breakdown the 10 games I will be watching this weekend and will also post some Over/Under Plays and Parlays Saturday morning if I find time, will be at a concert most of the day.

Temple +7 vs Penn St: Temple is seeing a lot of hot money come in with the +10 spread pushed down to +7, and Owls are off to a 2-0 start, although against Villanova and Akron, but dominating performances none-the-less. Penn State is coming off a 27-11 defeat against Alabama, and the QB situation remains dismal. Temple is only 3-8 against the spread against Big 10 teams in its last 11, but did cover a 13.5 spread last season, while the prior 4 years resulted in Penn St blowouts. Temple is 7-1 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in the last 8 situations.

The Pick: Temple Owls at +7 - Smart Money and Temple Impressive and at Home

Duke +7 at Boston College: Duke is coming off a loss to Stanford, although I watched the game and felt like Duke played well and is a program on the rise. On the other side, Boston College has been unable to do a thing with its offense and lost 30-3 to Central Florida last week. Boston College's offensive line is banged up and could have trouble getting anything going against the Blue Devils, who contained a powerful Stanford offense fairly well. Boston College is 2-8 its last 10 games as a favorite against the spread, and 1-8 against the spread its last 9 home games.

The Pick: Duke +7 - I would even venture to say Duke could win, and pay-off on the Money Line

Tennessee +9 at Florida: We have a great SEC match-up here with both teams off to a 2-0 start, and Tennessee coming to town with Bray at QB who has been lights out, and Hunter/Rogers a dynamic WR combo. The Vols are a young and hungry team looking to snap a 6 game losing streak against the Gators. This game is likely to be a shoot-out. The Gators get back Sharrif Floyd to help rush the passer and should make an impact. The Vols are 6-1 against the spread the last 7 games, but 3-14-1 in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Florida is 4-0 their last 4 games as a home favorite against the spread, but 1-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record in the last 6. The Over seems like the safest bet here.

The Pick: Tenn +9 - Vols have something to prove and Florida in for a fight. If you can tease the spread to +10 I like it better.

Texas -4 at UCLA: Texas is coming off of a 1 point win against a solid BYU team, while UCLA squeaked by San Jose St. and lost to Houston in week 1. Texas is playing its first road game and is 4-13 against the spread in its last 17 games, and 2-6 in its last 8 road games. UCLA is 7-3 their last 10 games against the spread in non-conference games, but 0-5 their last 5 overall against the spread. Texas shakes things up with Case McCoy expected to start at QB, the familiar McCoy-Shipley connection back in action. Expect UCLA to pound the ball with the running game, but Texas' D has been fairly stout against the run this season. I'm expecting Malcom Brown to show his stuff as the lead back in Texas this week, and expect a low scoring game, so the Under is a good option here.

The Pick: Texas -4 - UCLA has been unimpressive this year and Texas should perform better with McCoy at the helm

Washington +17 at Nebraska: Nebraska is the 11th ranked team in the country, but coming off a tight one against Fresno St. Taylor Martinez is the factor as usual for the Corn Huskers, accounting for 79.3% of the team's offensive production. Washington also comes in 2-0 with wins against Eastern Washington and Hawaii. The Huskies QB Price has a 70% completion rate, and 7 TDs. Washington is 5-1-1 its last 7 against the spread, while Nebraska is 2-5 its last 7 against non-conference teams against the spread.

The Pick: Washington +17 - Washington is up and coming and Nebraska is too reliant on Martinez and could struggle with its O-Line sub-par.

Oklahoma -3.5 at Florida St.: The Game of the Week with the Sooners heading into Tallahassee for a showdown of #1 and #5, neither teams really facing any test this year, so not much to read into the season so far for these two. Oklahoma dismantled Florida St. 47-17 last year and has some of the best weapons in all of college football with Landry Jones throwing to R. Broyles. The spread has stayed at -3.5 all week, so no signs of money moving into either side, 73% of the public betting Oklahoma so far and 93% the Over. Oklahoma is 1-5 their last 6 as a road favorite against the spread.

The Pick: Florida St. +3.5 - The Seminoles program is back, finally, and after being embarassed last year have something to prove. Landry Jones is a Heisman candidate, but this game comes down to the turnover battle and I see the tenacious Seminoles D making just enough plays to keep this game within a FG or even pull the upset.

Utah +4 at BYU: The Cougars coach better have a strong heart, because BYU has started the season with a 1 point win at Ole Miss, and last week came up 1 point short against Texas. I watched both these teams play last week and I was impressed by BYU's QB Heaps, and not impressed by Utah's QB Wynn. This was a big rivalry game, but Utah now in the Pac 12 and BYU Independent, and these two tend to play tight games. Utah deserved to win last week against USC, but after watching both teams play I favor BYU and the homefield advantage. BYU is 6-1 their last 7 against the spread.

The Pick: BYU -4

Oklahoma St. -14 at Tulsa: The Cowboys head to Tulsa with the Weeden-Blackmon tandem, and there is not a corner-back in the country that can stop Justin Blackmon. One factor is play here is that OK St. could be looking ahead to a big showdown with Texas A&M next week, two Top 10 teams. Tulsa lost week 1 to Oklahoma 47-14, but coming off a 31-3 Tulane win. Oklahoma beat them by 33 and I consider OK St. a better team, and Tulsa still without Damaris Johnson.

The Pick: OK St -14 - As long as OK St. is not looking ahead to the A&M game, should be a blowout

Stanford -9.5 at Arizona: Stanford has looked strong its first 2 weeks and completely impressed with Andrew Luck's accuracy and poise in the pocket. I also became a huge fan of Luck's favorite target Owusu after watching last week's game, kid has skill for the next level. Arizona lost by 23 to OK St. last week and faces Oregon next week, a brutal schedule. Stanford beat Arizona 42-17 last year and many of the same players still around for both teams, and while I like Nick Foles at QB for Zona, Luck is even better. Stanford is 7-0-1 their last 8 against the spread as a favorite. Arizona is 5-1 their last 7 against the spread as a home underdog, but 1-5 their last 6 against teams with winning records, against the spread.

The Pick: Stanford -9.5 - Stanford has won for me the last two weeks covering the spread, and looking for that trend to continue against an over-matched Wildcats team.

Texas Tech -21 at New Mexico: New Mexico lost 52-3 against Arkansas last week, and while Texas Tech is no Ark., they can light it up in the air. Darrin Moore caught 12 balls for 221 yards in his first game of the year, and follows in the footsteps of another great Texas Tech WR, Michael Crabtree. Texas Tech did struggle to stop the run its first game and New Mexico had some success running against Colorado St, and that could slow down the pace of the game. It is a match-up of a pass-happy team, and a team that will try to control the tempo on the ground. This line started 19.5 and has been moving up steadily.

The Pick: Texas Tech -21 (Tease It to 20.5 a Better Play) - Too Much Firepower and New Mexico Lacks Much Offense

LSU vs Mississippi St. - Thursday Night Football

The Line: LSU -3.5 at Miss. St

Over/Under 50

The Breakdown: LSU comes into Miss. St just a 4.5 point favorite as the #3 ranked team in the country playing the #25 team. LSU is coming off of an impressive week 1 debit against Oregon, and had an easy game last week against Northwestern St. Miss. St is coming in after losing to Auburn, failing to punch it in at the goal-line on the last play of the game, a heart breaking defeat.

LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, and they will need it with Miss. St. having Relf at QB and Ballard a stud running back. LSU has not really put up big offensive numbers, but Miss. St. gave up 150 on the ground to Auburn's Dyer last week. Miss. St is also lacking much of a receiving threat, so expect LSU to key in on Ballard and try to take him away, and things could get ugly if they shut him down.

The Line in this game is clearly factoring in the homefield advantage and the typical SEC close game, but I think the short week has more of an impact off Miss. St that is coming off a battle against Auburn.

LSU is still without starting QB Jefferson and WR Shepard due to NCAA violations, which is sure to make this one tougher. However, Miss. St could be without its starting Center and Left Tackle, and that is a big deal.

Grey Matter Stats, a great resource for betting analysis and statistics is calculating Miss. St. to cover and the Under.

My Pick: LSU -3.5 (Seeing -3.5 Most Sports Books) - I see injuries and the short week making this a tough one for Miss. St, and the match-up favors LSU's Offense against Miss. St's Defense

As for the Over/Under I would lean to the Under, a final score LSU 27 and Miss. St 21

NFL Week 1 Wagers to Consider

I previewed the match-ups in an earlier post and picked each game against the spread.

A lot of the spreads have changed so I will highlight a few wagers I am looking at this morning. The games that I am most uncertain on are Buffalo vs KC (Liking KC -4 alot better than previous -6.5 Spread), Dallas at Jets (Although Moved from +4.5 to +6 Now) and Houston vs Indy due to the -9 Houston Favorite Now (Luckily Locked in at -1). The Cleveland vs Cincy spread moved from -6.5 to -7, also a big difference at this point for parlay potential, as I like -6.5 much better so may need to Tease that if playing in a parlay. I'm also starting to favor the Skins +3 against the Giants at home and with the Giant's injuries, but Grossman is a liability.

* Parlay Pitt (+1), Tenn. (-1), Atlanta -3

* Parlay KC -4, Giants -1.5, Dallas +6 (A Bit Crazy, All These Spreads Moved with Hot Money on the Other Side Last Few Hours, Contrarian Bet)

* Detroit vs Tampa Over 43

* Atlanta vs Chicago Over 41

* Buffalo vs KC Under 40

* Vikings vs Chargers Over 43


Player Props (for the speculators)

1PM Games Most Passing Yards: Matt Stafford 11/2

1PM Most Rushing Yards: Peyton Hillis 15/2

1PM Most Receiving Yards: Dwayne Bowe 12/1

Calvin Johnson Receiving Yards Over 80

Mike Williams (TB) Receptions Over 4

Matt Forte Rushing Yards Over 65

Dwayne Bowe Receiving Yards Over 57.5

Dez Bryant Receptions Over 3.5

Summary - Crushed It

Of the 10 College Match-Ups nailed 8 Wins, 1 Push and 1 Loss this Week, and also Hit a Few Parlays and Most of the Over-Unders.

Looking for a Repeat Effort with the NFL Games Tomorrow, although the Season could be more unpredictable due to the lockout impact.

Have a ton of work to get done in the morning, getting up early, and will look to have some picks up before kick-off.

Good Night!

Night Game Wagers

Nebraska vs Fresno St. Over 52

Arkansas vs New Mexico Over 54

Parlay: BYU +7.5 vs Texas, Utah +8 vs USC, Michigan +3.5 vs Notre Dame

UCLA -21 vs San Jose St

Day Game Trades

Parlay Alabama -10.5, Iowa -7, South Carolina -3

Parlay Oregon -27, Stanford -21.5

The Over in Oregon/Nevada at 63 and Stanford/Duke at 59 Attractive

Auburn is now only +6 against Miss. St., so avoiding that game although the Over 57 seems like a solid bet in that one.

Heading Out Fishing for the Day, Will Try and Get Some Night Game Picks Up Later, and already previewed many of the games in a prior post.

College Football Saturday - 10 Match-Ups

Picking some of the better looking games and spread plays for the week, liking a lot of the favorites this week on the road.

Oregon -27 vs Nevada: The Ducks should come out angry with National Title hopes likely over following a thrashing from LSU last week. Oregon beat itself in that game with turnovers and should be much sharper against an over-matched Wolfpack squad. Nevada comes in with 14 returning startes, but with a big hole missing its star QB Kaepernick that was drafted by the 49ers. Nevada is a power running team and has a talented Defense, but one that was unable to stop the more prolific WAC offenses in Fresno St. and Hawaii, and Oregon is on a whole new level.

The Pick: Take the Ducks -27

Alabama -10 vs Penn St.: This is the top game this week with #3 'Bama making its way to University Park to play the 23rd ranked Nittany Lions. We also have a match-up of two high profile coaches with Saban and Paterno. Alabama comes in with likely Heisman contender Trent Richardson running the ball and one of the most talented defenses in the country, while Penn State still has uncertainty at the QB position, and is fairly inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball, and Alabama's Maze should make some big plays catching the ball.

The Pick: Alabama is a much better team and despite being the the road, should win this one easily. I like Alabama money line, and if you can tease the spread to -9.5 I would take it, as I see them winning by 10.

Stanford -22 vs Duke: Stanford is coming off a flawless 57-3 win over San Jose St. and Andrew Luck showed why he will be the the #1 pick in the NFL Draft next year. Duke is not known for football and although an improving offense Duke gave up 450 yards a game last year, and Stanford should light them up for 50+ in a 52-24 win.

The Pick: Stanford at -22 should blow out the Blue Devils

South Carolina -3 vs Georgia: South Carolina comes in with one of the top RB's in College Football with Lattimore who should find plenty of running room Saturday. Georgia is coming off of a disappointing performance against Boise St, and rumors that starting QB Murray has broken ribs. We should see a high scoring affair, but I don;t think Georgia can keep up with the Gamecocks.

The Pick: South Carolina -3

Texas -7 vs BYU: BYU comes into Texas after a close win over Ole Miss last week, and an experienced team that looked great on Defense, but needs work on Offense. BYU has a great offensive line and its Sophomore QB Heaps is a potential star in the making. BYU and Texas both have the same liability, the secondary, and I would favor the BYU passing game in this one.

The Pick: Cougars +7 - BYU could make a push into Top 25 in coming weeks

Arkansas -36.5 vs New Mexico: Arkansas is coming off a 51-7 win vs Missouri St and New Mexico had the worst Defense in the nation last season, so look for another dominant performance in this one. New Mexico's offense is not much better with a shaky QB and no running game, so look for the Hogs to put up a 55-10 win.

The Pick: Arkansas -36.5

USC -9 vs Utah: USC is coming off a close call against the Gophers, while Utah was not all that impressive against Montana St. last weekend. Lane Kiffin is doing a great job at USC and plenty of talent to do some damage this year although lacking the motivation due to NCAA violations. Utah is new to the Pac-12 and comes in with a good looking QB in Jordan Wynn and a very smart offensive coordinator in Norm Chow. USC's Robert Woods looked dominant in last weeks game and is a star WR to keep an eye on this season.

The Pick: I look for Utah to keep it close and cover at +9

Michigan +3 vs Notre Dame: A game under the lights in the Big House with Denard Robinson leading the way against a Notre Dame team coming off an embarrassing loss to South Florida and already making a QB change, a team in shambles already. These games are almost always close and I like Michigan better in this one. Michigan's Defense is suspect, but the Notre Dame players do not look ready to play for Brian Kelly and his antics.

The Pick: Wolverines at +3 to cover and likely win

Auburn +7 vs Mississippi St.: Auburn welcomes #16 Miss. St after an amazing comeback Auburn pulled out against Utah St. last week. Trotter did a heck of a job at QB for the Tigers last week, replacing Cam Newton. Miss. St might be looking ahead to the Thursday night game with LSU next week, and although coming off a 59-14 thrashing of Memphis, I just do not have enough confidence in a team with a new line-backing group coming into a hostile environment against a team coming off that type of win. Ballard had 10 carries for 166 yards and 3 TD's for the BullDogs last week, a player to watch as a high impact guy. Auburn's D is suspect and Miss. St. does have the talent to put up some numbers, but I think Auburn will hang around in a tight SEC battle.

The Pick: Auburn +7

Iowa -7 vs Iowa St: Iowa St barely got past Northern Iowa last week and the Hawk Eyes are a balanced team that should be able to win this one easily.

The Pick: Iowa -7

Week 1 NFL Spread Picks

Game Notes:

Green Bay vs Saints: See Preview Post from Earlier this Week

Falcons at Bears: Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez create too many match-up problems for the Bears and Jay Cutler is likely to struggle with his terrible O-Line facing a tough Falcons pass rush.

Bills at Chiefs: The Bills are rebuilding, yet they lack much young talent, so not a good situation, while the Chiefs Defense is tough and even with injury concerns at QB, Charles should run wild, while Bowe, Breaston, and now the young Pitt WR will give KC weapons to move the ball downfield.

Bengals at Browns: The Bengals are going to be terrible and Andy Dalton is about 3 years away from being a mediocre NFL QB. The Browns could surprise people this year with a strong coaching staff, and Colt McCoy just gets the job done, so I like them to runaway with this one, and would also be my picks for Suicide Pools.

Lions at Bucs: The public is betting heavy on the Lions, and I would agree at +3.5 on the road. Detroit is full of talent on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay is also a solid team with a great young coach, QB, RB, and WR's. It comes down to Tampa's D unable to contain the Lions, who should not only cover but win the game. The Lions are worth watching just to see Suh destroy people, already one of the NFL's dominant forces on Defense in his 2nd year.

Titans at Jaguars: Tennessee comes in with a veteran QB, its star WR hurting and always in trouble, a freshly signed Chris Johnson who is sure to have some rust, and are on the road against a pesky Jags team. However, the Jaguars cut its starting QB days before the opening game in a poorly thought out move, and I do not see Luke McCown doing much for this team. Tennessee will stack the box to shut down MJD and the Jags have no real threats at WR, so I expect Tennessee to not only cover +3.5, but win this game.

Colts at Texans: Indy is without Peyton Manning for the first time in ages, but Kerry Collins is experienced and can put the football on target if he has the protection. The Texans come is with one of the best 3 headed monsters in the league with Foster, Johnson, and Schaub and will be able to win the shootout, while the Texans D should also contain Indy. Homefield advantage will play a big part and the Texans have a lot at stake with high expectations, so expect an emotional squad to come out and take it to the Colts.

Eagles at Rams: The so-called "Dream Team" has a lot of holes and is heading into St Louis to face a team that is likely going to make a playoff run this year. Philly lacks Offensive Line depth and is weak up the middle on D, and the Rams offense can score points, so I expect them to keep this one tight down to the wire, and like the Rams +5.5.

Steelers at Ravens: This is one of the better match-ups for the week and two evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball. The Ravens have some new offensive components and a revamped secondary. Pittsburgh has many of its SuperBowl team back in the fold and the Defense remains top in the NFL without question. The Steelers should contain Ray Rice and put the pressure of Flacco, who is capable, but I just do not see them being able to get much movement with the ball. I like Pittsburgh as the underdog to win the game.

Vikings at Chargers: I began this week thinking that this could be the blowout of the week, but then I started looking at it closer and realized the Vikings should not be all that bad this year. McNabb is a good fit for the team, and although losing Sidney Rice hurts, they still have the toughest runner in the NFL. The Chargers have been known to choke as heavy favorites and although Phillip Rivers should be able to pick apart the Vikings, the running game in SD is unproven at best. I think the Vikings will do just enough to keep this game within a TD.

Giants at Redskins: A classic NFC East matchup and I think the Redskins made the wrong decision with Grossman starting over Beck. Sexy Rexy will be running for his life against the Giants defensive front, and although a ton of injuries hit the team in preseason, Big Blue should runaway with this game. Eli should put up an efficient game, while Jacobs and Bradshaw are likely to combine for 200 yards against a no-name Redskins D. I think the Giants win this one by at least a TD.

Panthers at Cardinals: I think a lot of people are counting the Panthers out without really looking at the team. Cam Newton is a winner, and although making his first start he will be facing a sub-par team. Carolina can pound the ball with Williams and Stewart and really take the air out of this game. Kolb will be under the spotlight with his first start and is likely to force things, leading to turnovers. At a 5.5 point underdog I think Carolina can cover and possibly win this game.

Seahawks at 49ers: Another case where I think the spread is real whacky as I can't see the 49ers as 5.5 point favorites against any team in the NFL, and I consider Seattle a mid-tier team. The 49ers have a lousy QB, a disgruntled RB, and two diva WR's. Seattle comes in with a bunch of new additions, and although shaky at QB, I expect big things from Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice this year, and Zach Miller is a big addition at Tight End. I think Seattle will keep this tight and possibly win outright.

Cowboys at Jets: This is sure to be a back and forth game and with a 4.5 point spread I take the underdog Cowboys. Dallas is a well-rounded team, yet always under-achieves. The Jets are hyped up but really lack that killer instinct to runaway with games. I think Romo will have opportunities to hit Dez Bryant for big plays, and Felix Jones should cause matchup problems. I think the Jets win the game, but only by a FG.

Patriots at Dolphins: Miami is not a bad team and has the potential to be a thorn in the sides of some teams this year, but New England looked real efficient in the preseason, for what that's worth. Tom Brady has a new toy in OchoCinco that he should find early and often, and the Pats D will have a game-plan to stifle Reggie Bush. I like the Pats in a runaway on Monday Night.

Raiders at Broncos: The Raiders went 6-0 in its division last year becoming the first team to ever not make the playoffs with that accomplishment. However, Oakland lost 3 critical players in the offseason in Robert Gallery, Zach Miller, and Asomugha. Oakland has a ton of speed this year and weapons galore on Offense, and Denver will struggle to stop the McFadden/Bush tandem just like last year. Denver comes in with a potential rookie of the year in Von Miller and with the homefield advantage, but on paper the Raiders should handle business easily in this one. Denver lacks offensive firepower and Oakland should force Orton into making mistakes, while Moreno will be boxed up. I like the Raiders to win, although last year aside, typically in a close game.