Another solid week last week going 8-3, one of those losses Tennessee which was 0.5 points away from covering, also costing me a parlay, and another was BYU who was extremely disappointing, bad call on that one.
We have some huge Conference Rivalry Match-ups this week, so "Getcha Popcorn Ready"
San Diego St. +10.5 at Michigan: A 3-0 Mountain West team comes into the Big House where the Wolverines are a surprising 3-0, and look to prove themselves. SD. St has wins against Cal Poly, Army, and Washington St., not exactly powerhouses. Denard Robinson is a 1-man wrecking crew for Michigan, and the team will only go as far as he can. SD. St should be fired up about facing its old coach now at Michigan. SD St. is 5-1 against the spreads it last 6 non-conference games, and its last 6 as a road underdog. Michigan is 0-7 against the spread at home against teams with winning records, but 8-2 its last 10 non-conference games.
The Picks: The Aztecs have something to prove and will keep it close, SD St. +10.5
UNC +7 at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is the highest scoring team in the country, and leading rushing team with three players already over 200 yards rushing. However, the wins came against Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee and Kansas, so the road is much tougher ahead, but enough to earn them a #25 ranking. The Yellow Jackets are an explosive, big-play team, but UNC does come in undefeated at 3-0 as well, wins against James Madison, Rutgers, and Virginia. UNC has some strength on Defense with 4 starters projected to be high picks in the NFL Draft next year. UNC is 18-7 its last 25 against the spread as an underdog, while GT is 5-1 its last 6 against the spread as a favorite, but just 1-5 at home as a 3.5-10 point favorite.
The Pick: Although at home the Yellow Jackets face their first real test of the year, and I expect a Win, but only by 4 points, so UNC +7
Kansas St. +13 at Miami: Miami is coming off of a dominating 24-6 win over Ohio St, although lost its opener on the road at Maryland. With Harris back at QB this is a better Hurricanes team, although he needs to cut back on the mistakes. K-St comes in 2-0 with wins over Eastern Kentucky and Kent St, not a very impressive resume. The Wildcats could be looking ahead to a showdown at home against Baylor next week. This is the first meeting between these two teams. K-St. is 4-1 against the spread its last 5 as a road underdog, but 7-20 against the spread its last 27 non-conference games. Miami is 7-1 its last 8 against the spread vs. the Big 12, but 1-4 the last 5 as a 10.5 or more favorite. K. St is the top ranked Defense in the nation in terms of yardage and scoring, although against sub-par teams, but the team has quite a few transfers that are getting a feel for the system and the team is starting to put things together.
The Pick: Miami is coming off of an emotional win and K. St. can do enough right in this game to win the turnover battle and keep it close. K. St +13
Arkansas +11 at Alabama: The 14th ranked Hogs head to #3 ranked Alabama as a big rivalry against the vaunted defense of the Crimson Tide. Arkansas' offensive line is a liability in this one. Arkansas is putting up big offensive numbers so far this year, but against New Mexico, Missouri St. and Troy, so in for a much tougher battle this week. Arkansas had a big upset in the bad last year against Alabama, but blew it in the final minutes. The Razorbacks special teams may be a difference maker, a unit that has scored 3 times this year already. Alabama's running attack and stellar defense give them the advantage in this one, but the spread makes it a tough call, but a run heavy low scoring game would favor the 11 point dog in a rivalry game. Arkansas is 10-1 its last 11 against the spread in conference games, 8-1 on grass, and 15-7 as a 10.5 or more underdog. Alabama is 4-1 its last 5 as a 10.5 point or more favorite, and 8-3 against the spread as a home favorite.
The Pick: Leaning towards Arkansas +11 due to the style of game expected, and Tyler Wilson should do enough for the Hogs with his WR weapons to keep them in this one, so Arkansas +11.
Florida St +2.5 at Clemson: Clemson is now ranked #21 after an upset against Auburn, breaking Auburn's 17 game win streak and Clemson is an explosive team. Florida St. comes to Clemson after a disappointing 23-13 loss to Oklahoma, the best team in the country. Florida St.s QB EJ Manuel is questionable for the game along with two of its top WR's. Fllorida St. has not won at Clemson since 2001 and could be facing Clemson with a Freshman QB. Tajh Boyd is on a record pace for Clemson at QB. Both teams offensive lines have been allowing sacks, likely a factor in this game. FSU is 1-5 against the spread its last 6 conference games, while Clemson is 2-8 its last 10 as a 0.5 to 3 point favorite.
The Pick: Clemson -2.5 if FSU is without Manuel at QB, otherwise FSU +2.5 with Manuel
Oklahoma St. +4 at Texas A&M: This is going to be the best game of the week in my view, and I am an OSU fan, but will attempt to stay partial. A match-up of #7 and #8 with A&M having the home-field advantage. A&M has faced Idaho and Southern Methodist, not a challenge, and comes in with Cyrus Gray as a top RB in the Nation. OK St. is averaging 408 passing yards a game, experienced Weeden at QB and the best WR in the nation in Justin Blackmon, while also boasting an impressive running game with Randle. OK. St is off to a 3-0 start with wins vs. Arizona, Louisiana Lafayette, and Tulsa. 4 of the last 5 games when these two met have finished within 5 points, always a close game. The line has been moving in favor of A&M with a 3 point spread up to 5 at some books. A&M lost last year thanks to 5 turnovers, but comes into this one with home-field advantage and the better defense. OK St. is 6-0 against the spread its last 6 road games, but 1-7 against the spread as an underdog. A&M is 6-0 against the spread its last 6 conference games.
The Pick: Texas A&M -4 (Against my Heart, but the differences in the Defenses and Home-Field play a Big Part)
Nevada +15.5 at Texas Tech: Texas Tech off to a 2-0 start with 54.5 points averaged, its passing attack clicking on all cylinders. Nevada was beaten by Oregon 69-20, a similar style offense, so the WolfPack could struggle again this week. Texas Tech is 4-0 as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points, against the spread, and I look for them to gash this defense.
The Pick: Texas Tech -15.5
Rice +20.5 at Baylor: Rice is coming off an upset win against Purdue, while Baylor is ranked #19 and becoming one of the more exciting stories in College Football, RJ Griffin to K. Wright connection lighting it up, beginning the season with a 50-48 win vs TCU and then an easy 48-0 win vs Stephen Austin last week. Baylor at home for its 3rd straight game this week. Rice is -5 against the spread its last 5 road underdog games, and 8-19 in non conference games. The Baylor Bears are just 1-4 against the spread its last 5 games overall. Rice's defense is 104th ranked nationally and Baylor historically beats Rice by 20, and this is the best Baylor team in years.
The Pick: Baylor -20.5, too much offense
LSU -6 at West Virginia: Another great match-up with #2 ranked LSU who has already defeated strong Oregon, and Miss. St teams heading to West Virginia for a SEC/Big-East Showdown. West Virginia got off to a strong start against Maryland last week, but almost choked, and really has not seen a Defense near as good as LSU's. LSU will force West Virginia to be one dimensional, shutting down the run, and is likely to shutdown WVU. LSU's offense has been less than impressive, still without starting QB Jefferson, but Lee filling in and getting the job done. WVU is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog, but 0-3-1 its last 4 at home against the spread.
The Pick: LSU -6 - Game should be close, but LSU should pull this out by a TD with an untested WVU team in for a treat with LSU's killer Defense
Oregon -16 at Arizona: The Ducks have shaken off the LSU defeat to come back with two dominating performances, although against two terrible teams. It begins its quest for the Pac-12 title on the road in Arizona, a Wildcats team that lost by 23 on the road against the OK St. Cowboys, and by 27 last week at home against Stanford. Nick Foles is a more than capable QB, but this could be a pride game for Oregon, wanting to beat up on Zona by more than the Cardinals did last week, and Foles has had zero help from his running game nor offensive line. However, Oregon's Defense is not all that impressive, so the Wildcats should be able to score some points. Oregon is is only 2-5-1 its last 8 as a favorite against the spread, while Arizona is 6-0 as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Pick: Arizona +16 (A Numbers Game based on Statistics, Tough One to Call)
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