College 12 Pack - Week 5

There are a few real tight match-ups this week, at least based on National Ranking, so we should be in for another great week of football, although a few of my favorites to bet are off this week, including Oklahoma State and Oregon.

Over-Unders, Parlays, Teasers, etc. will be posted Saturday morning.

*** Note ATS = Against the Spread***

Texas A&M -3 at Arkansas: Texas A&M heads to Arkansas to face a team they can plan on seeing a lot more, joining the SEC next year. A&M blew a big lead in a critical game against Oklahoma State last week at home, and could see a hangover impact from the disappointment. Meanwhile Arkansas' offense was completely shut down by Alabama last week, but returns home, and has enough weapons to put up some points. I was impressed by A&M's QB last week, under-rated, and surprised by his speed running the ball as well. Swope is a Wes Welker type receiver, while Fuller is a beast, reminds me of Vincent Jackson, so I am looking or a high scoring affair. The public is split in this one right now, about 50% on each side. A&M is 7-3 its last 10 ATS, but 0-6-1 ATS its last 7 versus the SEC. The Hogs are 7-2 ATS against the Big 12, and 11-4 ATS its last 15 overall.

The Pick: Arkansas +3 - Statistics, Home Underdog, and Petrino Coaching Advantage

Nevada +27 at Boise St.: Boise St. at home on the blue turf and been putting up 37 a game with Kellen Moore one of the Top 3 QB's in college football. Recent wins against Toledo and Tulsa unimpressive with 25 and 20 point margins. Nevada was beaten by 49 on the road at Oregon to start the year, but stuck in for just a 1 point loss last week at Texas Tech, and somehow now its 4th straight road game to start the season. Boise St. lost to Nevada last year in one of Moore's worst games in his career, and the last 4 have all been close ones, although this years Nevada team is missing a lot of key components from last year. 67.6% of the public picking Boise State in this one. Nevada is 4-1 ATS its last 5 as an underdog, while the Broncos are 12-5 ATS their last 17 overall. Mike Ball could be the difference maker for Nevada, and has the ability to make some big plays running the ball to keep it close.

The Pick: Nevada +27 - Wolfpack are showing progress and face a familiar foe, so I expect them to hang around just enough to cover.

Georgia Tech -10.5 at NC. State: Georgia Tech is 4-0 and has looked extremely impressive with its triple-option offense, a team full of explosive play makers, winning a close one against UNC last week. NC State was destroyed by Cincy 44-14 last week and dealing with an array of injuries, and a team not looking to be much of a threat this year. 76% of the public siding with GT in this one. Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS last 4 as a faovrite, and 8-2 ATS as a road favorite. NC State is 13-6-1 its last 20 ATS at home, but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -10.5 - Too much offense and NC State looks terrible

Michigan State +3.5 at Ohio State: Michigan St. at 3-1 heads to the Big House to face the 3-1 Buckeyes. Michigan St. lost to Notre Dame 31-13 in its only real test of the season, also on the road. Ohio State is still a week away from 4 key players returning from suspension. In this one we have a strong Michigan St. defense, but an offense that can;t run the ball well, and all the pressure on Cousings to Cunningham. Ohio St. is starting its Freshman QB Braxton Miller again, and coming off a solid 37-17 performance against Colorado. Ohio St. also looked poor in its only real test, a 24-6 loss to Miami. Ohio St. seeing 52.5% of the action in this one. Ohio St has handled Mich. St for years, but if there is any year for an upset, it would be this one, although Michigan St.'s O-Line is banged up. Michigan St. is 1-5 ATS its last 6 as a road underdog, and 3-10 overall ATS its last 13 as an underdog. Ohio St. is 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home.

The Pick: Michigan St +3.5 - I'll take the experienced QB in Cousins over Miller in what should be a back and forth battle

Arizona +13 at USC: USC returns home after looking awful on the road at Arizona St in a 43-22 loss. Arizona coming off a 56-31 loss to Oregon, and a game that really made me feel for Nick Foles, the Wildcats QB as talented as any in NCAA FB, but receivers dropped multiple big plays last week. Arizona started the year with the most brutal schedule at OK St. and home versus Stanford and Oregon, so USC will actually be one of its easier match-ups. 56.2% of the public betting with the underdog Wildcats in this one. The last 4 between these 2 teams has ended within a TD. Arizona is 7-3 ATS its last 10 as a 10.5 or more underdog, but 1-5 its last 6 ATS overall. USC is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more in its last 7.

The Pick: Arizona +13 - Wildcats schedule gave them a raw deal, and seeing signs of improvement. Foles to Crines can keep them in this one against an under-achieving Trojan squad.

Baylor -3.5 at Kansas State: The Baylor Bears are for real and RJ Griffin has more TD's than incompletions through 3 games, although against a few suspect opponents. However, this week the Bears head to K-St. to face a strong Wildcats Defense that pulled out a big win at Miami last week. 75% of the public betting on Baylor so far in this one. Baylor is 6-0 ATS as a road favorite, but 1-4 ATS within the Conference. K-St. is 2-5 its last 7 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but 10-4 ATS its last 14 Conf. games.

The Pick: Baylor Bears -3.5 - RJ Griffin will continue to roll and K-St. will suffer a let down after a big win last week.

Auburn +10 at South Carolina: Auburn is 3-1 and pulled out a squeaker in week 1 and its only loss was in Clemson to a very talented team, and at first glance a 10 point spread for a rivalry game looks a bit wide. This match-up will feature two of the better RB's in college football with Lattimore for the 'Cocks and Dyer for the Tigers. South Carolina has not had much success throwing the ball this year, and coming off 3 point wins against Georgia and Navy and just a 21-3 win vs Vandy. 58.4% of the public betting with the Tigers, although Auburn 1-3 ATS this season. Auburn has owned this match-up the last 5 years, and South Carolina is ranked #10 in the Nation, but I think undeservedly. Auburn is 10-1 its last 11 Conf. games ATS, and 4-1 ATS last 5 as underdog. South Carolina 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.

The Pick: Auburn +10 - I would not be surprised to see a big upset win here for Auburn

Clemson +7 at Virginia Tech: Clemson is a team that really has me excited this year, now ranked #13 coming off wins at Home versus Auburn and Florida St. They face another test this week traveling to V. Tech, but Boyd looks great at QB and Watkins is one hell of a playmaker at WR. The Hokies are un-tested, ranked #11 in the country, and yet to face a quality opponent, and I think this spread is really underestimating Clemson. 61% of the public betting with Clemson in this one, and V-Tech 1-3 ATS this season. Clemson 11-2 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, and 19-8 ATS overall as underdog. V-Tech 7-2 last 9 ATS at home.

The Pick: Clemson +7 - Lock of the Week, I think they win this game

Texas -10 at Iowa State: The 17th ranked Longhorns head to Iowa St. who site 3-0 with an impressive start to the season, favored by 9.5. Texas has not earned its ranking yet, a 1 point win vs a BYU team that has turned out to be pretty bad, and a 29 point win at UCLA, a terrible team. Texas has Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. the following 2 weeks and may be looking ahead, and could be an upset victim this week. The Cyclones have won all 3 games, but by a combined 8 points, so they keep things close. Steele Jantz is the QB for Iowa St. and a strong start, but needs to cut back on the 6 interceptions thrown. 58% of the public siding with Texas in this one. Iowa St. beat Texas on the road by 7 last year. Texas is a dismal 4-9 ATS last 13 as a favorite, and 5-16-1 ATS against teams with winning records. Cyclones are 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog.

The Pick: Iowa St +10 at home - underrated team that will keep Texas to a low score and make enough plays on offense.

Washington +10 at Utah: The Huskies are looking good this year, hanging with #11 Nebraska in a 13 point loss, and beating Cal by 8 last week, 3-1 ATS this season while Utah is 1-2 ATS. Utah looked bad on the road at USC with a 9 point loss, but beat BYU 54-10 last week. 53.5% of the public betting with Utah in this one, pretty even mix. I was unimpressed with Utah's offense in the games I have seen, while Washington as exceeded expectations. Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 overall, but Utah 8-2 ATS after a bye week its last 10, but 1-9 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Utah is a run first team and Huskies can defend the run, and should keep the Utah passing game at bay. Utah's best O-Tackle is doubtful with a knee injury, while Washington lost its top pass rusher for the season, but that still favors the Defense.

The Pick: Huskies +10 - Like Price over Wynn at QB

Alabama -3.5 at Florida: The match-up of the week with 'Bama on the road to face-off with a Gators team that has looked much better than I expected this season. Alabama shut down a pretty strong Arkansas offense last week and has the best D in the country, great playmakers in the secondary and plenty of NFL caliber players. On offense Alabama will control the ground game and McCarron will manage the game, but that may not be enough in this one. Florida has not really played a quality opponent yet this year, and after this one heads to LSU, basically facing the best 2 teams int he country back to back weeks. Brantley and Rainey are the playmakers for Florida, but life will be tough against the Crimson Tide. 68.7% of the public betting on Alabama in this one. Alabama has owned the last two match-ups. Crimson Tide are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road, but 1-4 ATS last 5 as 3.5 to 10 point road favorite. Florida is 7-3 last 10 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: Alabama -3.5 - Defense wins against an untested Gators team unlikely to make the big plays needed.

Nebraska +9.5 at Wisconsin: The second best match-up of the week with #7 and #8 squaring off the Cornhuskers head to Wisconsin for the first time in the Big 10. Nebraska is fairly inexperienced on the O-Line and in the Secondary, and has not faced an opponent even 1/2 as good as the Badgers this season. Wisconsin is also un-tested this season, but at home and Wilson, Ball, and Toon one of the most potent threesomes in the country. The odds-makers not being very kind to Nebraska, possibly because they are 1-3 ATS this season, while Badgers are 3-0-1 ATS. 54.4% of the public betting on Wisconsin, a slight bias. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS last 5 as underdog and 6-2 last 8 ATS on the road. Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS as a favorite and 10-0-1 ATS overall in last 11.

The Pick: Wisconsin -9.5 - Taylor Martinez is only one man and Badgers will box him up, while Wisconsin has weapons at every position and experience is enough to win this one at home by 2 TD's.


Bonus Picks:

Miss. St +7 at Georgia: I like the Miss. St. team a lot, tons of talent and think they can keep it close against a Georgia D that has been iffy.

TCU -13 vs SMU: Young and talented TCU squad starting to gel.

Arizona St. -18 vs Oregon St.: Beavers are terrible this year and Sun Devils just thrashed USC, should be a run-away.