
Picking some of the better looking games and spread plays for the week, liking a lot of the favorites this week on the road.
Oregon -27 vs Nevada: The Ducks should come out angry with National Title hopes likely over following a thrashing from LSU last week. Oregon beat itself in that game with turnovers and should be much sharper against an over-matched Wolfpack squad. Nevada comes in with 14 returning startes, but with a big hole missing its star QB Kaepernick that was drafted by the 49ers. Nevada is a power running team and has a talented Defense, but one that was unable to stop the more prolific WAC offenses in Fresno St. and Hawaii, and Oregon is on a whole new level.
The Pick: Take the Ducks -27
Alabama -10 vs Penn St.: This is the top game this week with #3 'Bama making its way to University Park to play the 23rd ranked Nittany Lions. We also have a match-up of two high profile coaches with Saban and Paterno. Alabama comes in with likely Heisman contender Trent Richardson running the ball and one of the most talented defenses in the country, while Penn State still has uncertainty at the QB position, and is fairly inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball, and Alabama's Maze should make some big plays catching the ball.
The Pick: Alabama is a much better team and despite being the the road, should win this one easily. I like Alabama money line, and if you can tease the spread to -9.5 I would take it, as I see them winning by 10.
Stanford -22 vs Duke: Stanford is coming off a flawless 57-3 win over San Jose St. and Andrew Luck showed why he will be the the #1 pick in the NFL Draft next year. Duke is not known for football and although an improving offense Duke gave up 450 yards a game last year, and Stanford should light them up for 50+ in a 52-24 win.
The Pick: Stanford at -22 should blow out the Blue Devils
South Carolina -3 vs Georgia: South Carolina comes in with one of the top RB's in College Football with Lattimore who should find plenty of running room Saturday. Georgia is coming off of a disappointing performance against Boise St, and rumors that starting QB Murray has broken ribs. We should see a high scoring affair, but I don;t think Georgia can keep up with the Gamecocks.
The Pick: South Carolina -3
Texas -7 vs BYU: BYU comes into Texas after a close win over Ole Miss last week, and an experienced team that looked great on Defense, but needs work on Offense. BYU has a great offensive line and its Sophomore QB Heaps is a potential star in the making. BYU and Texas both have the same liability, the secondary, and I would favor the BYU passing game in this one.
The Pick: Cougars +7 - BYU could make a push into Top 25 in coming weeks
Arkansas -36.5 vs New Mexico: Arkansas is coming off a 51-7 win vs Missouri St and New Mexico had the worst Defense in the nation last season, so look for another dominant performance in this one. New Mexico's offense is not much better with a shaky QB and no running game, so look for the Hogs to put up a 55-10 win.
The Pick: Arkansas -36.5
USC -9 vs Utah: USC is coming off a close call against the Gophers, while Utah was not all that impressive against Montana St. last weekend. Lane Kiffin is doing a great job at USC and plenty of talent to do some damage this year although lacking the motivation due to NCAA violations. Utah is new to the Pac-12 and comes in with a good looking QB in Jordan Wynn and a very smart offensive coordinator in Norm Chow. USC's Robert Woods looked dominant in last weeks game and is a star WR to keep an eye on this season.
The Pick: I look for Utah to keep it close and cover at +9
Michigan +3 vs Notre Dame: A game under the lights in the Big House with Denard Robinson leading the way against a Notre Dame team coming off an embarrassing loss to South Florida and already making a QB change, a team in shambles already. These games are almost always close and I like Michigan better in this one. Michigan's Defense is suspect, but the Notre Dame players do not look ready to play for Brian Kelly and his antics.
The Pick: Wolverines at +3 to cover and likely win
Auburn +7 vs Mississippi St.: Auburn welcomes #16 Miss. St after an amazing comeback Auburn pulled out against Utah St. last week. Trotter did a heck of a job at QB for the Tigers last week, replacing Cam Newton. Miss. St might be looking ahead to the Thursday night game with LSU next week, and although coming off a 59-14 thrashing of Memphis, I just do not have enough confidence in a team with a new line-backing group coming into a hostile environment against a team coming off that type of win. Ballard had 10 carries for 166 yards and 3 TD's for the BullDogs last week, a player to watch as a high impact guy. Auburn's D is suspect and Miss. St. does have the talent to put up some numbers, but I think Auburn will hang around in a tight SEC battle.
The Pick: Auburn +7
Iowa -7 vs Iowa St: Iowa St barely got past Northern Iowa last week and the Hawk Eyes are a balanced team that should be able to win this one easily.
The Pick: Iowa -7
Nice analysis on all the games! I put down my wagers this morning and I'm locked and loaded on all your above picks, minus Utah -- choosing to stay out of the action for now.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any conviction on either side of Cincy +4.5 at Tenn -4.5?