Thursday Night
South Florida -2.5 at Pitt: South Florida is the best team you may have not heard of, and began the year with a 23-20 win at Notre Dame. Pitt looked pretty good against Notre Dame, but lost 15-12 and was at Home. Pitt has a good running game with Graham, but the Defense has holes and South Florida knows how to score. BJ Daniels can throw and run as a QB and has been solid to start the year. South Florida on the road as a favorite in a rivalry game makes for a tough situation, but one they should overcome.
South Florida is 5-0 against the spread its last 5 road games, but 0-6 against the spread on Thursday games. Pitt is 1-5-1 its last 7 against the spread on Thursday games, but 12-4 against the spread its last 16 conference games.
The Pick: Stick with the Hot Hand, South Florida -2.5
Houston -15.5 at El Paso: The 4-0 Cougars leading the nation in passing with Keenum at the helm will look to stay undefeated at El Paso. Houston began the year with a win against UCLA, so this Conf. USA team is competitive, but has had close games when on the road. UTEP lost to South Florida by 28 last week, and to New Mexico St. by 6 the week prior, 2-2 on the year. UTEP will get back DE and S starters that were missing last week, but fate of starting QB Lamaison still in the air. If a banged up UTEP team only lost to South Florida by 28 on the road, we could see them keep this one relatively close against Houston. Houston is 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 favored by 10.5 or more, but 1-7 against the spread on turf and 3-12 its last 15 on the road as a favorite against the spread. UTEP is 4-1 against the spread its last 5 as an underdog.
The Pick: UTEP +15.5
Friday Night:
Utah State +8 at BYU: BYU has been unpredictable, a close loss to a strong Texas team, and then destroyed 54-10 against Utah, but rebounding last week to beat UFC 24-17, though not convincingly. I like BYU's QB Heaps, but the inability to run the ball makes it tougher to make big plays in the passing game. Utah State is 5th in the country in rushing and could really control this game's temp, and rank 14th in the country for scoring offense. Utah State is a team that should have knocked off Auburn in week 1, but lost a heart breaker last week to Colorado State, so it's a matter of what team will show up. Utah State is 4-0 against the spread its last 4 road games, but 1-6 its last 7 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. BYU is 1-4 against the spreads its last 5 Friday games, and 5-15-1 against the WAC.
The Pick: Utah State +8 - Completely Different Styles, I Take the Running Game
A Wager: Tease South Florida, UTEP and Utah State 6 Points for SOuth Florida +3, UTEP +21.5 and Utah State +14
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