Week 1 was definitely full of surprises as expected with the league having so much parity, and the poor performances by the Steelers, Browns and Falcons caught me by surprise, but took wins in all the Prime-time games to finish 8-8 for the week, while my goal is 11-5 or better each week, so need to make up for it this week!
Chicago Bears +7 at New Orleans: The Bears were impressive against the Falcons last week on both sides of the ball, while the Saints were impressive Offensively, but not defensively against the Packers. Chicago will look to give Forte a heavy workload and should find room to put up points, while also being able to put pressure on Brees and limit the damage. Tough road game for the Bears, but I see them keeping it close.
The Pick: Chicago +7
Kansas City +8.5 at Detroit: Detroit is coming off a big win in Tampa, a team that rarely won road games the past 5+ years, while Kansas City was embarrassed by the Bills in its home stadium. Detroit has twice the offensive fire power as the Bills, so that equates to an 80+ point performance, kidding, but in perspective. The Chiefs will look to establish the run, but Detroit has one of the best D-Line's in the game and will really cause havoc.
The Pick: Lions -8.5 (Over 46)
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 at NY Jets: It appears that the Jags will be without their starting Tight End and WR, and their main weapon is MJD, who the Jets will be sure to key on, and the Jags will struggle to score. The Jags D was impressive against a Titan's team, aside from a couple freak plays and the Jets offense is less than spectacular, so look for a low scoring game, and with a 9 point spread this would usually favor the underdog, and the spread was +10 earlier this week, more favorable for the Jags to cover. Santonio Holmes could miss the game for the Jets as well.
The Picks:: Jets -9 (I would probably say Jags if you get +10 though) - Under 39.5
Oakland Raiders +3.5 at Buffalo Bills: I have to lead with the fact I am a huge Raiders fan, and tend to always bet with them. They got a raw deal having to play a Monday Night late game and then play an early game on the East Coast, so the cards are stacked against them, and throw in the fact that the officials seem keen on making them the most penalized team in the NFL by a wide margin once again, and it makes for a tough game. The Bills are coming off an impressive performance and will look to give the rowdy fans something to cheer about. Buffalo has a much improved run defense, and that is Oakland's bread and butter, the passing game with Campbell still concerns me. The Raiders D is very under-rated and can rush the passer as good as any team with an 8 man rotation and stuffs the run. The Raiders should be able to match-up well against all of the Bills offensive players, and Stevie Johnson the biggest threat is a bit banged up.
The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (Under 42)
Arizona Cardinals +4 at Washington Redskins: I consider the Cardinals to be one of the worst teams in the league and will be unable to do much against a Skins D that shut down the Giants. Grossman should light up the Cards like Newton did, and Hightower in for a big day.
The Pick: Washington -4
Baltimore -6.5 at Tennessee: Baltimore dismantled the Steelers while Tennessee played weak against the Jags, so it seems like an easy pick here, but not so fast. Baltimore should have its way on D and stuff the Titans running and passing attack, while Flacco and Rice should dice up the Titans D like MJD did last week. Wait, maybe it was that easy.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5
Seattle +14.5 at Pittsburgh: The Steelers will be out for redemption after taking a drubbing last week at the hands of the Ravens, and will look to prove that game to be a fluke. Seattle played with the 49ers until the Special Teams blunders, but really has zero chance in terms of talent. Expect the Steelers to put up 30+ and potentially shut the SeaHawks out.
The Pick: Pitt -14.5
Green Bay Packers -10.5 at Caroline Panthers: Welcome to the NFL Cam Newton! Last week he faced a Cardinals team that's Defense was not much better than what he saw in the SEC. However, Green Bay let the Saints move the ball up and down the field on them. Basically Carolina will be unable to stop the Packers, they may not punt all game and expect a 40+ point performance. Carolina may stick around early, but turnovers and mistakes will let the Pack pull away and cover.
The Pick: Packers -10.5 (Over 45.5)
Tampa Bay +3 at Minnesota: The Bucs are a good team and I would take them with the money line, so that ruins any surprise I had in store here. McNabb looked terrible last week and Peterson can only do so much, while the Bucs have plenty of weapons to put up numbers.
The Pick: Tampa +3
Cleveland Browns -3 at Indy Colts: Who would have ever thought the Browns would be a favorite on the road against the Colts, how quickly things change when you lose your franchise QB. Looking at last week the Browns lost to a terrible team, while the Colts were clubbed by a great team. Expect Indy to bounce back and have some success this week, and too unusual of a spread not to take the Colts. I had high hopes for the Browns coming into the year, but already gave up on them, so prove me wrong!
The Pick: Colts +3
Dallas Cowboys -3 at SF 49ers: The Cowboys looked good last week against the Jets but may be without Dez Bryant this week, though I think he will man-up and play. The 49ers beat a poor Settle team with Ted Ginn's return ability, and still think they lack a QB to take them anywhere. Expect Felix Jones to have a good game catching the ball out of the backfield. SF has a great Defense, but not enough to allow them to stay within a FG.
The Pick: Dallas -3 (Under 42.5)
Houston -3 at Miami Dolphins: Houston showed last week that they are not messing around and should get Arian Foster back this week. Miami was able to move the ball last week, but its Defense looked terrible and unlikely to have much more success this week with Andre Johnson coming to town. Houston is also stout defensively and has enough team speed to contain Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall. Look for another strong performance out of the Texans.
The Pick: Houston -3
SD Chargers +7 at New England Patriots: The Pats live for these games, a team considered a "contender" in the AFC coming into their home turf. Expect no mercy to be shown and Brady should pick apart a SD team lacking a great pass rush and secondary, while key injuries to the Chargers also will take a toll. SD almost lost to the Vikings, who are not a very strong team, and expect the Pats D to put in a much better performance, Henne last week was an outlier, took them by surprise.
The Pick: Pats -7 (Some Books at -6.5 or lower, and feel much better at that spread)
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 at Denver Broncos: The spread started closer to 5.5 so some money moving into the Bengals. Denver played fairly well in its loss to the Raiders, while the Bengals were a surprise winner. Dalton is expected to play and looked good early last week, a surprise, but faces a much better Defense this week. Denver may be without Moreno, but expect them to exploit the passing game, although Cincy's D is under-rated and has play-makers with Leon Hall in the secondary.
The Pick: Bengals +3.5 - Potential for a Wild Upset as Orton Struggles and Hears a Boo
Eagles -3 at Atlanta Falcons: Michael Vick should be amped up for his return to Atlanta, and the Falcons looked terrible last week, although I still consider them Super Bowl contenders if the O-Line will make some blocks. Matt Ryan could struggle against the Eagles blitzing and improved secondary could take away Roddy White. The Falcons were unable to stop Cutler and Company, so good luck against Philly.
The Pick: Eagles -3
Rams +6 at NY Giants: The Rams come in after sustaining a few key injuries, but Bradford will be playing and still some weapons on offense. The Giants are coming off a lousy performance and will look to establish the run, but the health of Hakeem Nicks will be key to this game. A Monday nighter, so I expect the Rams to stay in this one until the very end, exploiting some of the holes int he Giants D caused by the injury bug.
I will look to update this post later on with some of the Betting Trends and Money Flows into Sunday.
Thanks! Think Saints could roll Chicago though.
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