I will update some parlays, player props, and over/under plays before kick-off tomorrow, but want to break down this week's games:
SF. 49ers +3 at Cincy Bengals: The Niners have looked pretty solid their first two games and have a playoff caliber defense, while the offense is still lacking. The Bengals have exceeded expectations and Dalton to Green a combo we should see for years ahead, but the team with plenty of turmoil this week with Simpson and Benson legal issues. I think SF can keep this close with its Defense, even with the West to East trip, and possibly even pull out a road win. 49ers are 0-7-2 last 9 as underdog of 0.3 to 3 against the spread, and Bengals are 5-0 against the spread its last 5 overall, but 6-21 last 27 against the spread as a favorite.
The Pick: SF +3
NE Patriots -7.5 at Buffalo Bills: The scrappy Bills are home for a showdown with the Pats, looking to prove they are for real. The Bills pulled out a second half comeback last week, although a lot of home-filed love from the Refs. The Pats look vulnerable on Defense with both the Dolphins and Chargers putting up big numbers, and Fitzpatrick has the ability to pick apart defenses, so look for a shootout. The Bills Defense will be the X-Factor, and its much improved D-Line and Linebackers will look to pressure Brady who has been known to have "happy-feet" and gets rattled. If the Bills come out flying they can set the tone and stay in this game. Pats are 4-0 as a road favorite against the spread, while Buffalo is 7-3 last 10 against the spread vs AFC opponents, but 2-10-1 last 13 against the spread as a home underdog.
The Pick: Pats -7.5
Houston Texans +4 at New Orleans Saints: The Texans are still not receiving a lot of love from Vegas, a 4 point underdog, but are going into a hostile environment for their biggest test of the year. The Saints still have no running game and Houston will get pressure on Brees, and should do a fairly good job of containing the Saints offense. I see a bigger mis-match with the Texans offense against the Saints defense, similarities to when the Packers lit them up in Week 1. With or without Foster, the Texans will move the ball without a problem and look to cover the spread in what should be a game that comes down to the last play. Texans are 1-6 last 7 against the spread at an underdog, while Saints 4-1 against the spread as home favorite in last 5.
The Pick: Texans +4
NY Giants +9 at Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants come in off a short week and already with a ton of injuries on Defense, will be without Manningham for this game. The Eagles Defense is sure to make it a long day for the Giants, unless they can get Bradshaw and Jacobs going early. Vick is banged up for the Eagles but should be fine come game time, and too much talent here, and Philly should be rocking for a comfortable win. Giants are 2-5 last 7 against the spread as an underdog and Eagles 3-7 last 10 at home against the spread, and 1-5 last 6 against the spread as a favorite, but 7-3 last 10 after allowing 30 points or more in prior game.
The Pick: Eagles -9
Miami Dolphins +3 at Cleveland Browns: Miami comes in 0-2, but two strong efforts against good teams, the Pats and Texans, and rookie RB Daniel Thomas looks to be the real deal, while Brandon Marshall and Bess will provide match-up problems for the Browns Defense. Miami is without pro bowl corner Vontae Davis, but Cleveland lacks many weapons to take advantage of that and Hillis is the majority of the Browns offense, and missed practice this week due to illness. I like Miami on the road to get it's first Win. Dolphins are 6-0-2 last 8 against the spread as road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points, and 8-2 overall on the road against the spread, but 0-5 against the spread last 5 on grass. Browns are 3-7 against the spread last 10 as a favorite.
The Pick: Miami +3
Denver Broncos +7 at Tenn. Titans: Two under-achieving teams to start the year, though the Titans came away victorious against the Ravens in a shocker, and look for this to be the game that Chris Johnson gets things going, a Defense that was gashed by McFadden in week 1. Tennessee is not really a team you can see this year as winning by wide margins, so a tough one with a 7 point spread. The Titans big O-Line will wear on Denver and allow them to pull-away, while Orton is likely to struggle on the road without many of his weapons. Denver is 1-5 last 6 against the spread on the road, and Titans are 12-4 last 16 against the spread in September.
The Pick: Titans -7
Detroit Lions -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings: Detroit put up big numbers last week and has one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and although the Vikings have played solid Defense the first two weeks, they could struggle this week with match-ups in the secondary. The Vikings need to control the clock, and will look to Peterson early and often, while McNabb needs to start making plays down the field, but frankly I do not see that happening against the Lions with Suh leading the way up front and the D-Line likely forcing multiple turnovers in this one. Lions are 12-3-1 last 16 against the spread vs the NFC, and Vikings 2-8 last 10 against the spread vs NFC.
The Pick: Lions -3.5
Jaguars +3.5 at Carolina Panthers: The Jags are on the road and are putting rookie QB Gabbert into the fire, a decision that is questionable, usually coaches would debut a rookie in a home game. Cam Newton has the Panthers offense rolling, and put up a good fight against the Packers last weekend, and will stack the box to take away MJD and force Gabbert to beat them. If Newton avoids interceptions, he should lock up his first NFL win.
The Pick: Panthers -3.5
KC Chiefs +15 at San Diego Chargers: A big spread in this one with the Chiefs coming in after two blowout losses and now without star RB Charles for the year. San Diego is looking to bounce back from a loss to the Pats and should have plenty of space to make plays against a weak Chiefs Defense in what looks like a blowout, although AFC West games tend to stay close. I just can't see the Chiefs putting up much of a fight and look for the Chargers to make a statement after the Chiefs won the division last year. Chiefs are 10-2 against the spread last 12 as a 10.5 or more point underdog, but 0-5 last 5 against the spread vs. AFC West. Chargers are 2-8 against the spread last 10 as a 10.5 point or more favorite. Numbers point to chargers not having a killer instinct is games as a heavy favorite.
The Pick: Chargers -15
NY Jets -3 at Oakland Raiders: I have been seeing this one as an upset special all week, partially because I am a Raiders die-hard, but also because I like the match-ups, especially with the Jets missing center Nick Mangold, a team leader and pillar on the O-Line, facing an aggressive Raiders D-Line. The Raiders remain without top play-maker Jacoby Ford, but get Kevin Boss back at Tight End for his debut in Silver and Black. Oakland's offense is dynamic and look for them to pound it against a "soft" Rex Ryan defense. The Jets offense is likely to struggle on the ground, forcing Sanchez to make plays, but in the Black Hole he is going to make some key mistakes that keep the Raiders in this one. The only thing that scares me is that this is becoming a popular upset pick this week. Jets are 6-1 last 7 against the spread as a road favorite, and 12-5 against the spread last 17 road games. Raiders are 4-1 against the spread last 5 overall, but just 5-21-2 against the spread as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog, though 8-3 overall against the spread last 11 as an underdog.
The Pick: Raiders +3
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 at St. Louis Rams: The Rams are a team that was thought to be set for a breakout season, but now 0-2 and an ugly Monday Night performance against the Giants, and now looking at an 0-3 start with the Ravens not happy about a loss to the Titans last week. Ray Rice should have a field day, and although Lee Evans is out, expect Boldin to score twice. St. Louis is without its running game and the Ravens will be teeing off on Bradford, and this one could get ugly. Ravens are 10-1 against the spread last 11 following a game with less than 90 yards rushing, and Rams are 1-5 against the spread overall in last 6 games.
The Pick: Ravens -4.5
Atlanta Falcons +1 at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Falcons are coming off a big win against the Eagles, which followed a terrible performance against the Bears, and still have not even cracked the surface of its potential. Julio Jones is going to be a star and Roddy White is ready to get going, and the Bucs Defense struggled against the Lions in week 1 and did not look too sharp last week. The Bucs Offense is also struggling, Freeman off to a poor start and poor decision making and teams doubling up Mike Williams seeing a lack of other weapons outside. Atlanta should go into Tampa and escape with a win, although it should be a fairly tight one. Falcons 4-1 last 5 against the spread on the road, and 8-3 overall, while Bucs are 5-17 against the spread their last 22 home games.
The Pick: Falcons +1
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks: A game that no-one will be watching, two terrible teams, although the Cardinals showing signs of life and clearly the more talented team in this one, but possibly without RB Beanie Wells. Seattle has no QB and relies on the run, and Lynch has no chance against 8-man fronts. Seattle is going to get embarrassed at home and some decisions have to be made, unless they are already looking forward to getting Andrew Luck with the first pick next year. Cardinals are 0-5 against the spread in the NFC West their last 5, while Seattle 2-6 last 8 against the spread overall.
The Pick: Arizona -3.5
GB Packers -4 at Chicago Bears: A big showdown and some disrespect to the Bears, a 4 point dog at home in a division rivalry. Chicago will look to get back at Green Bay for the loss in the playoffs last season, and look to slowdown the Pack's spread offense that is putting up video-game numbers. Chicago depends on Forte to get its offense going, and although unhappy, he is one of the best backs in the NFL, but Green Bay has one of the toughest defenses in the league. I have no faith or confidence in Jay Cutler to make plays against a top 5 NFL defense, and the Bears lost by 17 to a team Green Bay beat by 7 and struggled against that Defense, a bad sign, although that was on the road. Green Bay has not exactly been dominant this year, and struggled on the road against Carolina last week, making it tough not to take a 4 point home underdog playoff-caliber team. The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 and the Bears are 8-20 their last 28 against the spread as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog.
The Pick: Packers -4
Steelers -11 at Colts: The Steelers should have their way with the Colts running and throwing while Kerry Collins has been exceptional at turning the ball over, and the Steelers will be hungry in the Sunday night game, so look for a run-away, the Colts also sniffing for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with Manning's future in jeopardy. I can't see the Colts putting more than 13 on the board and Pitt is good for 27 easy. Steelers are 5-0 last 5 against the spread as a favorite, and Colts are 9-2 against the spread last 11 as a 10.5 or more underdog.
The Pick: Steelers -11
Redskins +6.5 at Cowboys: This spread seems a bit odd to me, Cowboys banged up with Austin out, Jones likely out, Bryant hurting and Romo banged up, and the Skins are 2-0 and playing great ball with Grossman at the helm. The Cowboy's Defense will get a ton of pressure and force Sexy Rexy into his typical mistakes, but Hightower and Helu should be able to find running room to take over the tempo of the game early. This feels like a FG game to me, so have to take the 6.5 point dog, though I prefer a 7 point spread. Skins are 0-4 their last 4 Monday Night games against the spread, while Dallas is 1-5 their last 6 against the spread on Monday night, but 6-1 their last 7 against the spread on turf.
The Pick: Skins +6.5
Good Luck this Week and Enjoy the Games!
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