This week features a few key match-ups of unexpected 3-0 teams going on the road with tough match-ups, both the Bills and Lions. Last week we saw the parity in the NFL take center stage with almost every underdog covering.
On to the games...(ATS = Against the Spread)
Detroit Lions +1 at Dallas Cowboys: The Lions proved they can go on the road and win and also come back in tight games. If they win it will be the first 5 game road win streak in the team's history. The public is betting heavy on the Lions with 65.35%, generally a sign this one could be a trap with the Cowboys a fairly good team playing at home. Breaking down the match-up the Cowboys are susceptible to the passing game and doubt Malcolm Jenkins will be able to contain Calvin Johnson at all. Romo will still be without Miles Austin and the Cowboys are ailing with multiple injuries, unable to score TD's in the win on Monday Night, coming off a short week. Detroit has one of the best front 4's in football and should rattle Romo, while I also have concern that Ware could wreak havoc on Stafford. Lions are 5-0 ATS last 5 games, while Dallas is 0-3-1 its last 4 ATS as a favorite.
The Pick: Lions +1 - Have to Side with the "Dumb Money" - Lions are for real
Saints -7.5 at Jaguars: The Saints head to Jacksonville and coming off a big win versus a strong Titans team, and the Jags struggled against the Panthers with rookie QB Gabbert. The public is betting heavy on the Saints with 84.57% of the action, but this could be a trap game, the Saints tend to play down against lesser opponents as seen with the 1-9 ATS record in last 10 vs. teams with a losing record. However, the Jags are 2-9 ATS against teams with winning records. Expect the Saints to throw the ball with Colston and Moore back in the fold, while the Jags depend on MJD to have any chance and he is off to a blazing start. Jags are 4-1 ATS last 5 home games, and are a completely different team at home. Now that Gabbert has one game under his belt, coaches can turn him loose a bit and could see a surprisingly close game here.
The Pick: Jags +7.5
SF 49ers +10 at Philly Eagles: It looked like Vick would be out a few weeks, but now fully expected to be ready for this one, but let's face it, the Eagles have looked terrible all season and lack an O-Line and LB's, two major holes that will continue to be exploited. The 49ers are 2-1 and come in with one of the better Defenses in the league, and Willis will be all over Vick in this one. SF has a terrible Offense which makes this one real tough to call, only managing 13 points against the Bengals, and unlikely to have any success throwing the ball. Only 46.3% of the public betting on the Eagles thus far. 49ers are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, while Eagles are 1-6 ATS last 7 as a favorite. How the NFL has SF travelling to Cincy and then back to Philly is beyond me, and could play a factor.
The Pick: 49ers +10 - Eagles are going to fall apart at the seams after not living up to such high expectations, and doubtful Vick finishes this game.
Redskins -2 at Rams: This is another one that looks too easy, the 2-1 Skins against the 0-3 banged up Rams and 66.7% of the public putting action on the Skins. The states favor them as well with Washington 12-3-1 last 16 ATS as a favorite, and Rams 9-20 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Rams are weak in the secondary so Grossman should have plenty of success, while Redskins are stout defensively and held the Cowboys to 6 FG's, expect the Rams to struggle just as they did last week with the Ravens.
The Pick: Skins -2
Titans at Browns (Pick): This is a match-up of two teams lucky to be 2-1. The Titans have yet to get Chris Johnson going, while the Browns should get Hillis back this week. However, the Titans were impressive with a 26-13 win against Baltimore, but struggle on the road, losing their last 6 by an average of 10 points. 61.8% of the action is betting on the road Titans in this one. Titans are 5-12 ATS against winning record teams, while Browns are 6-0 ATS in last 6 week 4 games, and 10-3 ATS in October, but 0-5-1 last 6 ATS at home. Titans are going to rely on its D to win this one and hopefully get the ground game going against the Browns who are 29th against the run. Titans first game without star wideout Kenny Britt could impact the passing game.
The Pick: Titans Pick-Em - Defense and Pounding he Ball to Sen Tenn. to 3-1, although hate being with the majority on a pick-em
Buffalo Bills -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals: The 3-0 bills on the road as favorites against eh feisty Bengals, in what could be a tricky one with the Bills coming off an emotional hard-fought victory last week. The public is riding the Bills hard with 77.55% of the action. Cincy's two losses came by 5 and 2 points and although weak opponents they play strong defense, run the ball, and Dalton can manage a game. The Bill's Defense has been unimpressive, but their offense has more than made up for it. Bills are 2-5 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite in the last 7, but 9-4-1 in the last 14 ATS overall. Bengals are 4-0 ATS last 4 as underdogs, but for an unusual stat 1-14 ATS in Week 4 games.
The Pick: Cincy +3 - Home Underdog and Bills Due for Let-Down, too Much Action on One Side
Vikings -2.5 at KC Chiefs: A match-up of two 0-3 teams, yet the home team is an underdog, very unusual. However, the Chiefs were blown out in their first two but played the Chargers close last week and starting to deal with some major injuries and get around that, while the Vikings have to be in disarray blowing three straight halftime leads, and many calling for a QB and possibly a coaching change. The Vikings are under-utilizing Peterson and Harvin, but can play Defense. 72.5% of the public is betting Minnesota in this one, and to me it looks like "dumb money" again. Vikings are 4-9 ATS last 13 road games, while Chiefs are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so neither team really has a statistical advantage.
The Pick: Chiefs +2.5 - Going against the public again, see Vikings struggling on the road and KC starting to turn things around.
Carolina +7 at Chicago Bears: Cam Newton secured his first win last week in a monsoon game where the running game finally got going and should have some success against the Bears secondary that let a Tight End score 3 TD's last week and Carolina has Shockey and Olsen. The Bears come in 1-2 and will be looking to get back to even, and should be fired up after losing to the Packers last week. 58.6% of the public betting with the home favorites in this one. Forte should find a lot of room against a D that saw MJD run wild, and Johnny Knox and the Bears special teams could be difference makers. I expect Newton to struggle in this test on the road and make a lot of turnovers. Panthers are 1-6 last 7 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points ATS, while Bears 4-1-1 last 6 ATS as a favorite.
The Pick: Bears -7
Steelers +3.5 at Houston: Two 2-1 teams looking to get over the hump, the Texans blowing a victory last week in New Orleans and a team that excels at home, and the performance last week shows this team is ready to turn a corner. The Steelers pulled out a close on against a terrible Colts team, and Big Ben is making mistakes with a banged up O-Line and the Defense is looking to be lacking energy and youth. Texans get Arian Foster back and look for the screen game to take a toll on Pitt's aggressiveness. 52.7% of the public betting on Pitt in this one. Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 as road underdog, while Houston 5-1-1 last 7 as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Houston -3.5 - Big Ben with 8 Turnovers in 3 Games and Houston D Strong this Year
Atlanta -4.5 at Seattle: Both teams 1-2 and 1-2 ATS this season. We know that Seattle is much better at home, but still a terrible team lacking any running game,and a real QB. 78.3% of the public on Atlanta here with a fairly wide spread, a bit concerning. Atlanta has a team that can compete with the best, but off to a very slow start with offensive line issues, but I look for them to turn things around starting this week with a run-away. Falcons are 11-0 ATS after scoring less than 15 points in previous game, and 10-2 ATS as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Seahawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 as home underdog. Seattle can keep this close if they get pressure on Matt Ryan, who has already been sacked 13 times this season.
The Pick: Falcons -4.5 - Atlanta is disappointing me every week, but they are due for an offensive explosion
Giants -1 at Cardinals: After a poor start to the season the Giants with two wins in a row and overcoming injuries, and the D-Line, the strength of the team, starting to get healthy again. Arizona's Kevin Kolb was under pressure all week last week from Seattle in a loss, and difficult to think he will have much success this week. Arizona may be without starting RB Beanie Wells again as well, while the Giants now have 3 WR weapons for Manning and a dual threat at RB. 69.4% of the public betting the Giants, and NY is 28-13 last 41 ATS on road games, while Arizona 7-2 last 9 at home ATS as underdog.
The Pick: Giants -1 - G-Men will put too much pressure on Kolb and win this one with field position - lock of the week
Miami Dolphins +7 at SD Chargers: Miami comes in without Daniel Thomas who has been the team's bright spot as a rookie RB, and although Henne has performed fine, the Defense has been non-existent. When looking at what Brady did to the Dolphins secondary, Rivers should have a field day for the Chargers, typical slow starters that should get rolling this week at home. Public is split with 52.36% on the Chargers, a team 0-3 ATS this season, much of which is due to them being over-rated in the preseason. Dolphins are an impressive 18-7-1 last 26 ATS on the road, but 0-5-1 ATS last 6 overall. Chargers are 23-7 ATS last 30 at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.
The Pick: Chargers -7 - Dolphins remain underrated and will become one of the better 0-4 teams in NFL history, but Chargers offense will be too much in an easy win
Denver +13 at Green Bay: The biggest mis-match of the week and the public betting with 68.6% on Green Bay. Denver has been involved in 3 close games, while Green Bay excited to return home 3-0. However, although Rodgers can spread the field and throw at will on the Broncos, the pass rushing of Dumervil and Von Miller coupled with GB losing its starting right tackle could cause some problems, while Packers also without RB Ryan Grant. Denver's offense is a mess without an attack on the ground or by air, so points will be hard to come by for them although GB has allowed teams to put up points on them this year. Denver is 4-10-1 last 16 ATS overall, and GB is 6-1 ATS last 7 at home, but just 7-18-2 last 27 as 10.5 or more favorite ATS.
The Pick: Denver +13 - Denver will hold GB to some FG's and be able to put up a late TD when the its out of hand to beat the spread
New England Patriots -5 at Oakland Raiders: A rematch of the Snow Bowl that cost the Raiders their rightful trip to the Super Bowl and started the Pat's Dynasty. The Raiders took care of business at home against the Jets last week and are building a bully, a team that can pound the ball with Bush and McFadden, and getting back play-maker Jacoby Ford. The Raiders O-Line is much improved this season, and the D-Line will be able to get pressure on Brady who will make mistakes, as seen with 4 picks last week, and New England without its starting Center. The Raiders have let teams throw the ball at will, and the Pats will be able to put up some numbers, Raiders struggle covering smallish WR's like Welker and Tight End's, with Gronkowski Brady's go-to guy. 69.2% of the public betting the Pats, while the Raiders come in 3-0 ATS this season, still doubters. Pats are 14-6 ATS last 20 as road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while Oakland 9-4 ATS versus teams with winning records, which I can see as they always play the better teams harder. Hue Jackson will have a gameplan to keep Brady on the sidelines and Janikowski could play a big role in this one late.
The Pick: Raiders +5 - My boys been working for me every week and can amtch the Pats offensively and have the better D
Jets +4 at Baltimore Ravens: I am a bit surprised to see the Ravens seeing 60.5% of the betting action. Baltimore has looked fantastic in 2 games, but also had a let-down game against the Titans, who are very similar to the Jets on both sides of the ball. Rex Ryan knows the Ravens and should see his team bounce back strong in this one, keeping Ray Rice under raps. Baltimore's WR's will struggle against the Jets DB's. Jets are 8-3 ATS last 11 after a loss, while Baltimore is 6-2 ATS last 8 as favorite.
The Pick: Jets +4 - Considering I see this game as a coin-toss for who wins, think Jets can definitely keep within a FG
Colts +10.5 at Tampa Bay: Indy coming off a close one to Pitt as big underdogs, but was at home, and set to start Curtis Painter this week at QB, and the Bucs Defense is one of the best so far this season in the NFL, and under-appreciated. It's tough to see Tampa winning by such a margin, winning by 3 and 4 points so far this season, and Monday Night games tend to magically stay close. The public has 57% of the action on the Colts so far. The Colts rely on its pass rush to force turnovers and set-up the team up with good field position, and Freeman has looked shaky thus far. Colts are 7-1 ATS last 8 Monday night games (Manning though) and 14-6-2 last 22 road games. Bucs are 4-1 last 5 ATS overall, but 5-16 ATS last 21 home games.
The Pick: Colts +10.5 - Maybe Painter surprises, either way Colt's D can keep this close enough, and not exactly a hostile playing environment
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