Week 1 NFL Spread Picks

Game Notes:

Green Bay vs Saints: See Preview Post from Earlier this Week

Falcons at Bears: Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez create too many match-up problems for the Bears and Jay Cutler is likely to struggle with his terrible O-Line facing a tough Falcons pass rush.

Bills at Chiefs: The Bills are rebuilding, yet they lack much young talent, so not a good situation, while the Chiefs Defense is tough and even with injury concerns at QB, Charles should run wild, while Bowe, Breaston, and now the young Pitt WR will give KC weapons to move the ball downfield.

Bengals at Browns: The Bengals are going to be terrible and Andy Dalton is about 3 years away from being a mediocre NFL QB. The Browns could surprise people this year with a strong coaching staff, and Colt McCoy just gets the job done, so I like them to runaway with this one, and would also be my picks for Suicide Pools.

Lions at Bucs: The public is betting heavy on the Lions, and I would agree at +3.5 on the road. Detroit is full of talent on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay is also a solid team with a great young coach, QB, RB, and WR's. It comes down to Tampa's D unable to contain the Lions, who should not only cover but win the game. The Lions are worth watching just to see Suh destroy people, already one of the NFL's dominant forces on Defense in his 2nd year.

Titans at Jaguars: Tennessee comes in with a veteran QB, its star WR hurting and always in trouble, a freshly signed Chris Johnson who is sure to have some rust, and are on the road against a pesky Jags team. However, the Jaguars cut its starting QB days before the opening game in a poorly thought out move, and I do not see Luke McCown doing much for this team. Tennessee will stack the box to shut down MJD and the Jags have no real threats at WR, so I expect Tennessee to not only cover +3.5, but win this game.

Colts at Texans: Indy is without Peyton Manning for the first time in ages, but Kerry Collins is experienced and can put the football on target if he has the protection. The Texans come is with one of the best 3 headed monsters in the league with Foster, Johnson, and Schaub and will be able to win the shootout, while the Texans D should also contain Indy. Homefield advantage will play a big part and the Texans have a lot at stake with high expectations, so expect an emotional squad to come out and take it to the Colts.

Eagles at Rams: The so-called "Dream Team" has a lot of holes and is heading into St Louis to face a team that is likely going to make a playoff run this year. Philly lacks Offensive Line depth and is weak up the middle on D, and the Rams offense can score points, so I expect them to keep this one tight down to the wire, and like the Rams +5.5.

Steelers at Ravens: This is one of the better match-ups for the week and two evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball. The Ravens have some new offensive components and a revamped secondary. Pittsburgh has many of its SuperBowl team back in the fold and the Defense remains top in the NFL without question. The Steelers should contain Ray Rice and put the pressure of Flacco, who is capable, but I just do not see them being able to get much movement with the ball. I like Pittsburgh as the underdog to win the game.

Vikings at Chargers: I began this week thinking that this could be the blowout of the week, but then I started looking at it closer and realized the Vikings should not be all that bad this year. McNabb is a good fit for the team, and although losing Sidney Rice hurts, they still have the toughest runner in the NFL. The Chargers have been known to choke as heavy favorites and although Phillip Rivers should be able to pick apart the Vikings, the running game in SD is unproven at best. I think the Vikings will do just enough to keep this game within a TD.

Giants at Redskins: A classic NFC East matchup and I think the Redskins made the wrong decision with Grossman starting over Beck. Sexy Rexy will be running for his life against the Giants defensive front, and although a ton of injuries hit the team in preseason, Big Blue should runaway with this game. Eli should put up an efficient game, while Jacobs and Bradshaw are likely to combine for 200 yards against a no-name Redskins D. I think the Giants win this one by at least a TD.

Panthers at Cardinals: I think a lot of people are counting the Panthers out without really looking at the team. Cam Newton is a winner, and although making his first start he will be facing a sub-par team. Carolina can pound the ball with Williams and Stewart and really take the air out of this game. Kolb will be under the spotlight with his first start and is likely to force things, leading to turnovers. At a 5.5 point underdog I think Carolina can cover and possibly win this game.

Seahawks at 49ers: Another case where I think the spread is real whacky as I can't see the 49ers as 5.5 point favorites against any team in the NFL, and I consider Seattle a mid-tier team. The 49ers have a lousy QB, a disgruntled RB, and two diva WR's. Seattle comes in with a bunch of new additions, and although shaky at QB, I expect big things from Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice this year, and Zach Miller is a big addition at Tight End. I think Seattle will keep this tight and possibly win outright.

Cowboys at Jets: This is sure to be a back and forth game and with a 4.5 point spread I take the underdog Cowboys. Dallas is a well-rounded team, yet always under-achieves. The Jets are hyped up but really lack that killer instinct to runaway with games. I think Romo will have opportunities to hit Dez Bryant for big plays, and Felix Jones should cause matchup problems. I think the Jets win the game, but only by a FG.

Patriots at Dolphins: Miami is not a bad team and has the potential to be a thorn in the sides of some teams this year, but New England looked real efficient in the preseason, for what that's worth. Tom Brady has a new toy in OchoCinco that he should find early and often, and the Pats D will have a game-plan to stifle Reggie Bush. I like the Pats in a runaway on Monday Night.

Raiders at Broncos: The Raiders went 6-0 in its division last year becoming the first team to ever not make the playoffs with that accomplishment. However, Oakland lost 3 critical players in the offseason in Robert Gallery, Zach Miller, and Asomugha. Oakland has a ton of speed this year and weapons galore on Offense, and Denver will struggle to stop the McFadden/Bush tandem just like last year. Denver comes in with a potential rookie of the year in Von Miller and with the homefield advantage, but on paper the Raiders should handle business easily in this one. Denver lacks offensive firepower and Oakland should force Orton into making mistakes, while Moreno will be boxed up. I like the Raiders to win, although last year aside, typically in a close game.