Week 8 NFL Picks

Last week sucked at 5-8, so onto this week where we have a bunch of large spreads do to mis-matches once again:

Colts +9 at Titans: The 0-7 Colts coming off a 62-7 loss to the Saints on the road to face the 3-3 Titans that got beat 41-7 at home against the Texans last week, so two teams struggling to say the least. The Colts can't do a thing offensively, but the Titans are 24th against the run. Titans should be able to get Chris Johnson going finally against the 31st ranked run defense. Titans are seeing 52.44% of the betting action. The line has moved from double digits, so some of the Sharps pushing for the Colts to keep it close. Colts are 1-6 ATS last 7 vs AFC teams, and Titans are 19-7 ATS last 26 after being held to less than 15 points in the prior game.

The Pick: Titans -9 - Colts are bad at home, and really bad on the road

Jaguars +10 at Texans: The Jags are coming off a big upset against the Ravens, but are on a short week and on the road, while Houston was dominant this week, but look to still be without Andre Johnson, and tend to slack off after big wins. The Jags defense keeps them in games and they can milk the clock with MJD, and have covered large spreads against better teams like the Steelers and Saints. Jags are 3-10 ATS last 13 after playing a Monday night game. Houston is seeing 62.3% of the public bets. Houston is 4-11-2 ATS last 17 after a ATS win.

The Pick: Jags +10 - Gabbert turning a corner and could make some big plays to Jason Hill in this one, but the Jags really need to go out and get him some weapons to compete.

Vikings +3.5 at Panthers: The 2-5 Panthers are ranked well in most categories, except being 29th against the run, which gives the Vikings an advantage with Peterson, while Ponder looked great in his first NFL start. Carolina has competed with some of the NFL's best like the Packers, Saints, and Bears. Cam Newton should have no problem carving up the 29th ranked Vikings pass defense. Carolina is 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, and Vikings are 1-3 ATS last 4 on road. Panthers are getting 60.3% of the public bets, and Vikings are just 3-10-1 last 14 ATS as underdogs. This one basically comes down to two rookie QB's, and Newton has more experience and the advantage of being at home.

The Pick: Panthers -3.5 - I like the match-up for Peterson, but Cam Newton is the real deal and keeps the Panthers in the win column.

Saints -14 at Rams: The Saints are coming off a 62-7 win, but have looked shaky at times. The Rams are banged up and once again without Sam Bradford, and scoring points has been a major problem. Rams are surprisingly 13th against the pass, but may be more a factor of teams getting ahead early and not passing in the second half, but Saints will be without Ingram at RB. 76.8% of the bets are siding with the heavily favored Saints. Saints are 1-5 ATS last 6 as road favorites, while Rams are 0-7 ATS last 7 as underdogs.

The Pick: Saints -14 - Brees and Co. set for another blowout win

Cardinals +13 at Ravens: Arizona heads to Baltimore as a heavy underdog against a team that should be angry, although coming off a short week, after being upset and looking terrible offensively against the Jags, but the Cardinals are 28th against the pass, a recipe to get the offense going again. Arizona has lost 5 in a row, and Kolb has not looked very good, and I doubt they find much against the Ravens. The public favors the Ravens with 61.4% of the action, and Baltimore is 11-4 ATS last 15 as 10.5 or more home favorite, but just 2-7 ATS following a Monday Night game. Arizona is 2-8 ATS last 10 as road underdog, but 4-0 ATS last 4 as 10.5 point or more underdog.

The Pick: Ravens -13 - Battle of the Birds, and Ravens Shut Down Cardinals and Put Up 30 on Offense

Dolphins +10 at Giants: The Giants are coming off a bye week, and teams have struggled this season off bye weeks with the new rules, also a team just 1-5 ATS last 6 as 7.5 to 10 point favorites. Miami lost another close one last week, and is on the verge of getting a win, although unlikely this weekend. Miami is last in the NFl on 3rd Downs and Giants D is 9th. Eli Manning should have a field day against the 21st ranked Dolphins pass defense.

The Pick: Dolphins +10 - NY has been home for a month and could be a bit rusty this week. Miami is better than the record shows and will have some success running the ball, although the QB situation is a mystery.



Redskins +5 at Buffalo Bills: Buffalo coming off a bye week and a tough loss the week prior vs. the Giants, but a team that has looked good this season, and the game will be played in Toronto where the Bills have struggled. Skins looked terrible with John Beck last week and now without Hightower and Santana Moss due to injury. The Bills are 30th against the run and pass, while Washington ranks Top 15 on Defense and 2nd best on 3rd down conversions. Skins are 7-2 ATS last 9 after 2 straight losses. Buffalo is seeing 74.55% of the bets, but is just 2-6 ATS last 8 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Skins are 6-1 ATS last 7 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Skins +5 - ATS Trends, Bye Week Blues, and Skins Superior Defense Point to a Game Decided by a FG

Lions -3 at Denver Broncos: The Lions coming off 2 straight losses head to Mile High to face a Broncos team coming off a miracle comeback, and with an amped up home crowd for the Tebow debut. Detroit is also without Best at RB and Stafford remains a question mark with an ankle injury. Lions are 28th against the run, and considering Tebow is a QB that runs before he throws, Detroit could get shredded for some yards, although Suh and the Lions D-Line likely to put some big pops on Tebow all game. Broncos are 5-16 ATS last 21 vs. NFC North. The Lions continue to see the public love-parade, with 72.77% of the action. Detroit is 0-8-1 ATS last 9 as road favorite.

The Pick: Broncos +3 - I am one of the few making this pick, and I hate Tebow and the Broncos, but not liking some of the ATS trends and the Lions are a different team without Best.

Patriots -3 at Steelers: The Patriots are 5-1 and coming off a bye week, and although teams struggling this season with the mandatory days off, I bet Bellichek found a way to keep the Pats practicing. This will be the Pats biggest road test of the season and Steelers are starting to get the running and passing game going. Pats are 8-2 ATS last 10 against Pittsburgh. Steelers are 2nd against the pass and Pats are 32nd against the pass, so defintiely some advantages for Pittsburgh, although they have struggled in recent years against spread offenses. Pats are seeing 68.3% of the public action, which seems a bit high. Pats are 5-1 ATS last 6 as road favorite, while Steelers are 1-5 ATS last 6 following a win, but 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog.

The Pick: Steelers +2.5 - Pats defense is vulnerable and Steelers will rattle Brady, and I think this is a real tough game for the Pats to win on the road.

Browns +9 at 49ers: Browns pulled out a 6-3 win last week in the ugliest game of the season, and sit 3-3 as a team that has been pesky more than anything. 49ers are the leagues surprise and sit 5-1 with three consecutive quality wins. 49ers need to run the ball to set up the pass and Browns are 2nd against the run. 49ers are 1st against the pass, and Hillis likely out again so need to rely on Hardesty. SF is seeing 65% of the public bets, but the Browns are 7-1 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 49ers are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 in games after a bye week.

The Pick: Browns +9 - Browns D finds a way to keep this close, and Cribbs makes some key special team plays to win the field position battle.

Bengals -3 at Seahawks: Andy Dalton has the Bengals at 4-2 and now coming off a bye week, although yet to face an elite team and gets the Seahawks this week for a road trip out west. Seattle has looked good in a few games, but terrible with Whitehurst at QB, but Jackson expected to be back this week. Cincy ranks Top 5 in the NFL in all defensive categories which should give Seattle fits, a team that is not gifted with offensive weapons. Cincy is seeing the public action at 58.55%, but Seattle is a completely different team at home. Bengals are 8-1 ATS last 9 overall, but just 7-21 ATS last 28 as a favorite. Seattle 4-0 ATS last 4 at home.

The Pick: Seattle +3 - Really tough on for me to call as my football analysis puts Cincy as the clear advantage, but ATS trends, a west coast trip, coming off a bye, and historically strong team at home as a FG dog favors Seattle.

Cowboys +3.5 at Eagles: Cowboys got the running game going last week with Murray and a team that is as talented as any with healthy, an improved D, and competed with both the Lions and Pats in tight losses recently. Eagles coming off a bye and Vick will be healthy, and set on turning this season around. Eagles are 12-0 with Andy Reid in games following a bye, but Dallas has won the last 5 ATS. Dallas is 1st against the run and Eagles are 10th against the pass. Dallas will get pressure on Vick and we know he tends to get hit a lot and may not finish the game. Cowboys are seeing 54.22% of the action and the line has moved 1/2 a point to Dallas. Dallas is 7-0 ATS last 7 as underdog, while Eagles just 2-8 ATS last 10 as favorites.

The Pick: Dallas +3.5 - ATS Trends Favor a Cover and See Dallas' D Giving Vick Issues

Chargers -3.5 at Chiefs: San Diego blew a lead last week to lose to the Jets and struggled, and without Tolbert again this week. KC has bounced back from an injury-riddled 0-3 start to win 3 in a row, although not doing much offensively. San Diego is 11-4 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 3 points or less, but just 4-9-1 last 14 games in KC. Home Team underdogs have also pulled some shockers this season on MNF. San Diego seeing 62.9% of the public action.

The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 - San Diego is over-rated and KC playing passionate ball will be ready to upset the Chargers on MNF

College Football Additional Wagers

Betting Trends:

Sharps are betting with USC, NC. State, Vanderbilt, and Florida

Squares are betting Stanford, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, and Oregon


6 Team, 6 Point Teaser (+600)

* Purdue +20.5 vs Michigan

* Arkansas -4 vs Vanderbilt

* Georgia +3 vs Florida

* Kansas St. +20 vs Oklahoma

* Oklahoma St. -8.5 vs Baylor

* Arizona +10.5 vs Washington

5 Team, 6 Point Teaser (+450)

* Michigan St. +10 vs Wisconsin

* A&M -4 vs Missouri

* Virginia Tech -9 vs Duke

* Clemson +2 vs Georgia Tech

* Stanford -2.5 vs USC

Over-Under Bets:

Michigan St / Nebraska Under 51

Arkansas / Vanderbilt Under 52

Kansas / Texas Under 64

Clemson / Georgia Tech Over 62

College 12 Pack - Week 9

Michigan St. +4 at Nebraska: Michigan St is coming off a huge win at home against Wisconsin, and will travel to Nebraska for a Big 10 showdown, starting a new rivalry. Michigan St. plays defense as good as any team in the country, and the Offense is starting to click as well, a dangerous team. Nebraska is also 6-1, and was blown out by a Wisconsin team that the Spartans beat last week. Nebraska is 70th against the run and Taylor Martinez will struggle against a fast Spartans defense ranked 2nd in the country in total yards allowed. Michigan St. is 5-2 ATS this season and Nebraska is 2-5 ATS, and Spartans seeing 52.65% of the betting action. This line opened at 6 points, so moving in favor of Michigan St, and Spartans are just 2-7 last 9 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, while Cornhuskers are just 8-20-1 last 29 ATS as home favorites.

The Pick: Michigan St +4 - Stick with the Hot Team and I Would take Spartans Money Line

Purdue +14 at Michigan: Purdue is 4-3 and has played in a lot of close games this season, beating 23rd ranked Illinois last weekend in an upset. The Wolverines had a bye week to let the loss to Michigan St. sink in, and expect them to be ready to play at home Saturday. Michigan is ranked 18th, but really lacks quality wins. Purdue runs for 195 yards a game and Michigan is 54th against the run, while Michigan has a similar favorable match-up on offense. Michigan is 5-2 ATS and Purdue is 4-3, and 69.7% of the action betting the Wolverines. Purdue is 8-2 ATS last 10 as road underdog of 10.5 or more, while Michigan is just 4-22 ATS last 26 in Conference games.

The Pick: Purdue +14 - Purdue has a big Special Teams Edge that should keep this close via field position

Missouri +10 at Texas A&M: Missouri has lost 3 of its last 4 due to a brutal schedule, losing to Oklahoma, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St., and now having to head to Texas A&M against a hot team. A&M is as good as any team in the country and could be 7-0 right now, led by Tannerhill. Missouri ranks 39th passing and A&M is 120th against the pass, while Missouri is 86th against the pass and A&M is 19th passing and 14th rushing, a dynamic offense. The public is betting heavy on A&M at 63.57%, although A&M is just 2-5 ATS this season and Missouri is 4-3. The Tigers are 9-14 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point road underdog, while Aggies are 5-2 ATS last 7 home games.

The Pick: A&M -10 - Aggies have too many weapons and although Missouri will put up some points I do not see them keeping it close

Virginia Tech -15 at Duke: Virginia Tech stands 7-1 and have looked good the past 3 weeks against Miami, Wake Forest and BC. Duke relies heavily on its passing game and lost a close one to Wake Forest last week. Duke is 100th against the pass and will be over-matched talent-wise in this one, Virginia Tech's defense top 10 in the country. 73.3% of the public betting with the Hokies who are just 2-6 ATS this season. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a 10.5 point or greater favorite, while Duke is just 3-12 ATS last 15 as home underdog of 10.5 points or more.

The Pick: Virginia Tech -15 - Hokies know they need to run the table, and will be too much for the Blue Devils in this one.

Wake Forest +7 at UNC: This one should be a good battle, Wake Forest winning 5 of its last 6, including a win versus FSU. UNC is a good team as well, losing its last two to Miami and Clemson, although its wins have come at a close margin against some bad teams. Wake Forest should have success throwing the ball and matches up well defensively also. UNC is seeing 52.35% of the action, and is 3-5 ATS this season. The Deamon Deacons 3-10 ATS last 13 as road underdog, while UNC is 4-1 ATS last 5 as 3.5 to 10 point home favorite.

The Pick: Wake Forest +7 - These two match-up closely so I will take the underdog



Georgia -3 at Florida: Georgia has won 5 in a row, although against lower quality teams, but starting to find its groove and has to head to Florida against a beaten up Gators team, but the game being played in Jacksonville. Florida has lost 3 in a row, but to Alabama, LSU, and Auburn, and gets Brantley back at QB. Gators defense is 6th against the pass and 34th against the run, while Georgia is 9th against the pass and 20th against the run. Georgia has the better offensive rankings. Georgia is seeing 68.2% of the bets and are 4-3 ATS this season. Florida is 2-8-1 TS last 11 against winning record teams, and Georgia is 4-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite.

The Pick: Georgia -3 - Taking the Hotter Team, and Brantley is Sure to be Rusty, while Georgia gets Ogletree back at LB

Oklahoma -14 at Kansas St: Oklahoma is coming off a shocker of a loss to Texas Tech, and Kansas St. at 7-0 is still a 14 point underdog at home, a team that has not gotten any respect all year long and is 6-1 ATS. If K-St. can win this one they have a showdown with Oklahoma St, who may also be undefeated depending on its big game with Baylor. Oklahoma is the 4th best passing team and Wildcats are 87th against the pass, one issue in this one for the Wildcats, and K-St. on offense leans on its running game and the Sooners are 28th against the run. Oklahoma's stats look better than they should though as the meat of their schedule has yet to come. Kansas St. is seeing 60% of the betting action. Oklahoma is 19-7 ATS last 26 after a loss, while K-St. has gone 6-0 ATS last 6 overall.

The Pick: K-St. +14 - Wildcats have won for me each of the last 6 weeks was shocked to see a 14 point spread. Sooners will be mad, but K-St. will compete.

Baylor +14.5 at Oklahoma St: They may need to make room for extra sports on the scoreboard because we could see 100 points in this one. Baylor has fallen back and A&M hung a 55-28 score on them last week. Oklahoma St. is now 3rd in the Nation, but has kept games close due to a lack of defense. The public is heavy on the favorite with 68.4%, and the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS this season, Baylor just 3-2. Cowboys are 19-7 ATS last 26 as home favorite of 10.5 or greater, but Baylor is 8-2 ATS last 10 as underdog of 10.5 or more.

The Pick: Baylor +14.5 - Top 10 Teams have Been Dominant ATS this Season, but I think Baylor Puts Together a Great Performance as we See a Game Come Down to the Wire

Clemson -3.5 at Georgia Tech: The 8-0 Clemson Tigers are turning into a must watch team every week, exciting with Boyd and Watkins. They have started slow some games, but seem to have the ability to score at will. The Yellow Jackets are falling apart, teams catching on to its option offense, and have lost 2 in a row to unranked teams. Georgia Tech is 8th against the pass, and is 5th on offense rushing, while Clemson is 75th against the run, so some of the match-ups favor the Yellow Jackets. Clemson is seeing 71.7% of public bets, but the line has moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Clemson is 7-0 ATS last 7 Conf. games, while Yellow Jackets are 3-7 ATS last 10 as home underdog.

The Pick: Clemson -3.5 - Tigers are on a roll, and GT on the decline

Wisconsin -7.5 at Ohio St: Wisconsin coming off a last second loss and was exposed a bit, some seeing them as National Title contenders although they were winning with a cupcake schedule. Ohio St. plays strong Defense and held Michigan St. to just 10 points, something Wisconsin could not do, and the Buckeyes are playing a lot better the last few weeks. Ohio St. is going to have zero success throwing the ball, and will need to grind this one out, hopefully using the bye week to get the passing game going. Wisconsin is seeing 75% of the bets right now, a team 5-1-1 ATS this season. Ohio St is 17-4 ATS last 21 at home.

The Pick: Ohio St +7.5 - Big Advantage coming off a bye week while Badgers are feeling the pain of defeat



Stanford -7.5 at USC: Andrew Luck and Stanford set for their first real test of the season, although they did blow out what looked to be a strong Huskies team 65-21 last week. USC is 6-1 and with the probation is really looking forward to at least trying to play spoiler for a Stanford team that is in the hunt for a National Title. Barley to Woods should have some success with Stanford's top Safety out for the game. However, USC is 102nd against the pass, not a good match-up against Andrew Luck, who will be looking to showcase his talent to the NFL scouts and Heisman voters. Standford is seeing 70.4% of the bets and is 7-0 ATS this season. Cardinals are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on the road, while USC is 4-12 ATS last 16 after an ATS win.

The Pick: Stanford -7.5 - I expect Standford to start running up scores to get in the Title picture, and USC will be unable to stop them

Southern Miss -10 at UTEP: The Southern Miss. Golden Eagles are 6-1 and putting up 37 points a game and just allowing 19, including a quality win against UVA and sneaks into some Top 25 polls. UTEP has been a fun team to watch, plenty of talent, it's best game a 7 point loss to Houston and plays noticeably better at home. Southern Miss is seeing 63.25% of the betting action, although UTEP is 6-1 ATS this season, under-rated team. Southern Miss is 18-8 last 26 ATS on the road as a favorite, while UTEP is 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdog of 3.5 to 10.

The Pick: UTEP +10 - Rooting for this Underdog, Fun Team to Watch and Plays Strong at Home

5 Bonus Picks:

Penn St. -5 vs Illinois - Illinois lost 2 straight and although PSU generally in close games, should win by a score.

Ole Miss +13 at Auburn - Auburn is not that good, and Ole Miss playing better, and should keep it tight

Tennessee +4 vs South Carolina - Gamecocks are falling apart and on the road without star RB Lattimore, look for a hungry Vols team to win outright int he upset

Arizona +4.5 at Washington - Arizona has plenty of talent and showed that against Oregon, USC and UCLA recently. Washington looked to have something going but got stomped by Stanford last week. I think he Wildcats are the better team.

Oregon St. +5 at Utah - Beavers are much better than 2-5 record indicates, and Utah is not looking strong vs. Pac 12 teams.

Week 7 NFL Wagers

Along with the individual games a few Teasers, Over-Under Etc.

5 Team, 7 Point Teaser (+350)

Skins +10 vs Panthers, Chargers +8 vs Jets, Cowboys -7 vs Rams, Packers -3.5 vs Vikings, Texans +10 vs Titans

4 Team, 6 Point Teaser (+300)

Falcons +11 vs Lions, Chiefs +10 vs Raiders, Ravens -3 vs Jags, Seahawks +9 vs Browns

Over-Under Plays

Steelers / Cardinals Under 44.5

Broncos / Dolphins Over 41.5

Bears / Bucs Under 44

College Football Wagers Week 7

Been able to make some good money with the ATS single bets this season, but missing these teasers last few weeks, usually 1 of 6 games misses, but making money in sports betting is based on betting the single games, and these are just fun and add to the pot, so keep that in mind.

5 Team, 6 Point Teaser

* Kansas St -5 at Kansas

* Nevada -5.5 at Fresno St

* USC +15 at Notre Dame

* Wisconsin -2 at Michigan St.

* UTEP -4 at Colorado St.

5 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser

* Purdue +10.5 vs Illinois

* Clemson -4.5 vs. UNC

* Missouri +14 vs Oklahoma St.

* Arkansas -9.5 vs Ole Miss

* Texas A&M -14.5 at Iowa State

Over-Under Plays

Clemson/UNC Over 58

K. St vs Kansas Under 59

NC. St vs Virginia Under 52

Georgia Tech vs Miami Under 62

Utah vs Cal Over 46

Wisconsin vs Michigan St Under 50

Week 7 NFL Spread Picks

The week ahead has a fairly lousy schedule, no games between teams with winning records, but still a few interesting match-ups and the story-line being new QB's in Washington, Denver, Minnesota and Oakland.

Chicago Bears -1 vs Tampa Bay Bucs (In London): The Bears are coming off their best performance of the season, and now sit 3-3, but traveling to London on a short week. The Bucs shocked the Saints last week after being thrashed by the 49ers the week prior, and sit 4-2. The Bears defense is no longer what it used to be, ranked 25th against the pass and 22nd against the run. Tampa is 26th against the pass and 18th against the rush. The public is currently siding with Tampa at 53.1%, fairly even, and Tampa is 3-3 ATS this season, while Chicago is 2-4. Chicago is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 as a 0.5 to 3 point road favorite, and the Bucs are 7-2 ATS last 9 as an underdog.

The Pick: Bucs +1 - Travel Schedule and Statistics Favor Tampa - Forte and Hester the Best Players in this Game both on the Bears, but Freeman Pulls Out Another 4th Quarter Comeback

Washington Redskins +3 at Carolina Panthers: The 3-2 Skins an underdog against the 1-5 Panthers seems unusual, but Washington made a QB change with Beck now in, although he is a solid QB that can manage a game. The Panthers are 5th in the league passing, but the Skins are stout on defense, 9th against the pass. Carolina's run defense is 31st against the run, so Helu, Hightower, and Torrain should all find some room to run and control the clock. 67% of the public is taking the 1-5 home Panthers in this one, Caroline 4-2 ATS this season and Washington 3-2. Skins are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as road underdog, while Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS last 9 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Skins +3 - Washington can still salvage a good season and Beck is an upgrade to Grossman, while Cam Newton is coming back to earth and will make some key mistakes, and too much dumb money with the Panthers here.

San Diego Chargers -2.5 at NY Jets: The Jets are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this year, and really needs this game this week. The Jets have not looked good, but a team that has all the pieces and Sanchez just needs to get his act together. The Chargers are well rested coming off a bye, but still the East to West travel and at 4-1, but against 4 of the worst teams in the league. The Jets have been lousy against the run, ranked 28th, and Tolbert/Matthews will be the key because Revis should take away Vincent Jackson, while the Chargers may get a boost with Gates expected to return from injury. Chargers are 2nd against the pass and Jets are 31st running the ball, but LT should be fired up for this one against his former team and has a lot to prove. San Diego is receiving 57.6% of the public action so far, although 2-3 ATS this season. San Diego is 2-6-1 last 9 as a road favorite ATS, while Jets are 6-1 ATS last 7 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog.

The Pick: Jets +2.5 - Line Opened at Even so Money is Moving to the Chargers, but my feel is that the Jets have more to lose, and want this game more, and can beat an underachieving team.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cleveland Browns: Seattle is coming off a bye week and has looked alright this season, much of which can be attributed to coaching, beating the Giants and losing a tight one with the Falcons. Seattle making another trip out East, and Charlie Whitehurst now in at QB. The Browns are 2-3, low quality wins, and will struggle running the ball Sunday, so the pressure will be on Colt McCoy. Cleveland is seeing 59.3% of the betting action, although 1-3-1 ATS this season and Seattle is 3-2. Seattle is 6-20 ATS last 26 as road underdog, while Browns are 1-7-1 last 9 ATS overall and 0-6-1 ATS at home.

The Pick: Seattle +3 - It Will be Ugly, but it Should be Close and Cleveland is not a Tough team for Seattle to steal a 2nd Straight Road Win as I Fall into the Road Underdog Trap Again

Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans: The Texans are falling apart at the seams with key injuries, and have lost 3 of the last 4 and now on the road. Titans are quietly 3-2 and coming off a bye week, time to get Chris Johnson going this week. The Titans are lacking a WR threat with Britt done for the year, but they should have success running the ball finally. Houston is seeing 59% of the bets at a road underdog, and is 3-3 ATS this season, Titans at 2-3 ATS. Houston is 0-5 ATS last 5 as underdog, while Titans are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 as home favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.

The Pick: Titans -3 - As much as the Texans look to be appealing as a 3 point dog, I think the Titans come out and prove they are going to win the AFC South, and shut down the Texans big play passing game.

Denver Broncos Pick at Miami Dolphins: This may be the suck for Luck bowl, see which teams can do their best to lose. Tim Tebow the story of this game, his first start and in his state of Florida, but honestly he is a terrible QB and the Broncos lack much of a running game this season. Miami is 0-6 and although in some close games, things going downhill with Henne out, although Moore seems to have a great connection with Marshall. Miami won't do much defensively to stop Tebow, but the Broncos are also near the bottom of the league on Defense, and expect a breakout game for rookie RB Daniel Thomas. The public is betting with Denver, 65.3%. Denver is 2-6 ATS last 8 road games, while Miami is 0-7-1 last 8 ATS overall.

The Pick: Dolphins - Miami should be able to move the ball all day long, and Tebow is exposed for what he is, a Fullback with a QB's number

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at Detroit Lions: The Falcons look to be ready to turn their season around, although likely without Julio Jones again, and will use Michael Turner to get back to their brand of football. The Falcons are 27th against the pass, and that is the Lion's specialty, although a big blow to both the running and passing game this week with Jahvid Best out. Detroit suffered their first loss last week and must show they can bounce back, not the Lions of old. The public is split in this one, 50.8% with Detroit, the Lions 4-1-1 ATS this season and Falcons just 2-4. Detroit has been in a lot of close games, but I think the pass rush will cause Matt Ryan to struggle. Falcons are 13-6 ATS last 19 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but the Lions are 13-3-1 last 17 ATS vs NFC opponents.

The Pick: Lions -3.5 - Detroit may become 1-Dimensional but Atlanta will not have an answer defensively, and Matt Ryan is in for a long day against Suh and Company.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Oakland Raiders: This one would have been a run-away for the Raiders, but now without their starting QB and Palmer not ready for this game, so left with Kyle Boller starting, a major downgrade, and Raiders likely without another top weapon, their kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Oakland will run the ball but the Chiefs will put 8 men in the box to try and make Boller beat them. Kansas City fresh off a bye week and on a 2 game winning streak, and showing a lot of improvement after being hit with early season injuries. Dwayne Bowe is match-up problem for the Raiders defense, and the Chiefs may be able to run the ball by committee. Oakland is seeing 72% of the betting action, and are 5-1 ATS this season, last week a back-door cover the only loss. The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS last 14 as underdog, and Oakland is 3-12 last 15 ATS as home favorite.

The Pick: Chiefs +4 - Raiders too many uncertainties at QB now and missing Jano is a Big Deal.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Arizona Cardinals: The only part of this that makes it a fair game is the Steelers have to travel out West. Pittsburgh is showing they are not too old, and rumors of their demise were exaggerated. Arizona is going to struggle against the top-ranked pass defense and Kolb likely makes more than a couple mistakes. Arizona is 20th against the run and pass and Steelers have plenty of weapons to make this the blowout of the week. Pittsburgh is seeing 73.9% of the betting action, although just 2-4 ATS this season. Steelers are 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road, but 6-2 ATS last 8 as a favorite. Cardinals are 10-4 ATS last 14 as home underdog.

The Pick: Steelers -4 - Statistics say the Cardinals find a way to cover, but purely based on the match-up I do not see how.

St Louis Rams +13 at Dallas Cowboys: The 0-5 Rams showed heart last week and stuck in there with the Packers and I was impressed with the defensive play. Bradford has a high ankle sprain, but does get a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd. Dallas lost a tough on against the Pats, and this is a trap game before a Sunday Night game with the Eagles. Dallas will be without Felix Jones at RB, although he has been a non-factor this season. Rams are ranked dead last against the run so Choice and Murray should fill in fine for Jones this week. Dallas is 1st against the run and will force Bradford to throw a lot, and he has a bum ankle against the blitzing Rob Ryan defense, a tough match-up likely leading to turnovers. The heavily favored Cowboys seeing 61.4% of the action, and are 2-2-1 ATS this season, the Rams 0-5 ATS, unable to cover. There is some compelling trend of double digit underdogs covering spreads this season. Rams are 5-14 ATS last 19 as 10.5 or more underdog, while Dallas is just 1-9-1 last 11 ATS as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS as home favorite.

The Pick: Cowboys -13 - Dallas tends to underachieve, but this one is an easy one they should run-away with

Green Bay Packers -9 at Minnesota Vikings: The Packers are dominant and can't be stopped, so not a lot of analysis needed here. Vikings starting a rookie QB in Ponder and coming off a beating by the Bears, and the Packers are much better. The only problem in this one is it seems too obvious. The public is taking the Packers 81.3%, and Green bay 5-1 ATS this season, the Vikings 2-3-1. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS last 10 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Packers -9 - Should be No Contest Despite the Rivalry. Packers are 5th against the run which limits the Vikings only chance, a big day for Peterson being unlikely.

Indianapolis Colts +14 at New Orleans Saints: The winless Colts head to New Orleans for the Sunday night game, one that schedule makers though would be a great match-up come week 7. The Colts have not been getting blown out, and are showing progress on offense, while the D is not playing all that bad. The Saints have been rather unimpressive, losing to Tampa last week, and narrow wins against the Panthers and Jags. However, the Saints are much better at home, though coach Sean Payton will coach from the Press Box with a broken leg. The Saints are seeing 66% of the action to cover, and Saints are 3-3 ATS this season, while Colts are 2-4. Colts are 10-2 ATS last 12 as a 10.5 or greater underdog, and 15-7-2 last 24 ATS on the road. Saints are 2-10 ATS vs. teams with losing records, and 1-5 ATS as home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

The Pick: Colts +14 - Saints should win easily, but I expect Indy to at least stay within 2 TD's

Baltimore Ravens -9 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The 4-1 Ravens with a fairly easy road match-up on Monday Night, and have looked very good this season. The Jags have lost 5 in a row, but have been in games, but they lack threats throwing the ball with MJD 75% of their offense and expect the Ravens D to key on him all game. The public has 69.5% of the action on Baltimore, and the Ravens are 4-1 ATS this season, Jags at 2-4. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 6 Monday Night games, while Jags are 2-7 ATS last 9 Monday Night games, and 1-6 ATS last 7 games overall as an underdog.

The Pick: Ravens -9 - I'm Surprised the Spread Is Not Larger - Another Poorly Scheduled Monday Night Game

Teaser Cheatsheet

College 10 Pack - Week 8

Week 6 started miserable 1-4 ATS, but then I hit 10 of the next 12 to finish 11-6. This week the games are not all that exciting and a few lines off the board, including Auburn and LSU with the suspensions at LSU, but found 12 to focus on:

UNC +10.5 at Clemson: UNC is 5-2 this season, much improved, and their two losses were by 7 and 6 points to Georgia Tech and Miami respectively. Clemson is 7-0, the 7th ranked team in the country, and struggled versus Maryland last week although Boyd was banged up. Watkins is one of the most exciting freshman WR's in a long time, and Clemson a fun team to watch putting up 38 points per game. UNC is 92nd against the pass, likely to struggle and Clemson is Top 20 in most offensive stats. UNC has Dwight Jones, one of the top WR prospects in the country, and should have some success against a Defense that struggled last week. Just over 70% of the public betting the Tigers right now, who are 6-1 ATS this season, UNC 3-4 ATS. Clemson is 6-0 ATS last 6 Conf. games, and UNC is 18-8 ATS last 26 as underdog.

The Pick: Clemson -10.5 - Death Valley a Tough Place for UNC to Play, and Clemson's Defense Should Step It Up this Week - Top 10 Teams have a Strong ATS Record this Season

Oklahoma St -7.5 at Missouri: The 4th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys bring their 49.2 points per game high powered offense to Missouri for a Big 12 match-up. OSU has plenty of holes defensively, narrowly escaping against Texas A&M and Texas gave them a fight much of last week. Missouri beat Iowa State 52-17 last week, and the prior two were on the road at Oklahoma and Kansas St., both ranked, and just 10 and 7 point losses. Franklin continues to improve at QB and Josey is an explosive RB. Oklahoma St. is suspect on Defense, 100th in the country in total yards allowed. 75% of the public is betting Oklahoma St., who are 5-1 ATS this season, while Missouri is 4-2 ATS. I've watched all the Cowboys' games and it is my favorite team, but I can see an upset in this one. Oklahoma St. is 20-4-2 last 26 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Missouri is 6-2 ATS last 8 at home.

The Pick: Missouri +7.5 - This May be the Game of the Week


Arkansas -15.5 at Mississippi: Arkansas comes off the bye week with a #9 ranking, only falling to Alabama, and coming off an impressive 24 point win versus Auburn. Ole Miss is 2-4 and one of the worst offenses in the country, losing 52-7 to Alabama last week, and also a 30-7 loss to Vanderbilt this season. The Razor Backs are 8th in the nation in passing, and Ole Miss is 56th defensively against the pass and 115th against the rush. Arkansas is seeing 73% of the bets, and are 4-2 ATS this season, Ole Miss at 2-4. Hogs are 0-4 ATS last 4 as road favorite of 10.5 or more, one scary stat, while Ole Miss is 15-3 ATS last 18 after scoring less than 20 points in the prior game, so statistics favor a potential cover here.

The Pick: Arkansas -15.5 - Hogs should be able to throw the ball all day long and pull away by at least 20 points. Houston Nutt has a tough task this week and his job security is in question.

Maryland +18 at Florida St: Maryland is a team that has impressed me this season, they screwed up one of my bets when they covered at Georgia Tech and they had Clemson's backs against the wall last week before losing it late, a team starting to click. FSU rolled over Duke last week after losing 3 straight to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake Forest. EJ Manuel is back healthy and FSU's defense is always among the elite. Both teams have a ton of injuries and Maryland is without Dorsey at WR this week, a big blow to its offense. Statistically Maryland is way over-matched in this one, and FSU a tough place to play. Both teams are 2-4 ATS this season and 56.65% of the money playing for the Terps to cover. Maryland is 7-3 ATS last 10 as a 10.5 or more underdog, while FSU is 2-7 ATS last 9 Conf. games and some rather terrible ATS stats following large margin wins from the prior week.

The Pick: FSU -18 - Seminoles are ready to start rolling the rest of the season

Texas A&M -20.5 at Iowa State: A&M a 21 point favorite on the road, and recently beating Texas Tech and Baylor. A&M has holes defensively, but could very well be 6-0 if it did not blow big leads against Oklahoma St and Arkansas. A&M has weapons at every position offensively, and Iowa St. was ripped for 52 points last week in Missouri, so A&M will have no problem hanging another 50-burger on the Cyclones. Iowa St. is not all that bad, just a tough schedule and over-matched, but the 20.5 point spread is alluring. Iowa St is ranked 110th against the run, but A&M is 120th against the pass. A&M is seeing 69% of the action as a heavy favorite,a nd both teams 2-4 ATS this season. Aggies are 4-10 ATS last 14 road games, and 4-12 ATS last 16 after a win by 20 or more. Cyclones are 0-5 ATS last 5 Conf. games.

The Pick: A&M -20.5 - Cyclones having QB issues and turnovers, Aggies will roll


USC +9 at Notre Dame: USC is quietly having a strong season at 5-1, although lacking any quality wins, and 1-1 on the road. This once great rivalry game has lost some of its luster as both teams have fell to mediocrity. USC is the 19th ranked passing team and Notre Dame is 67 against the pass. Notre Dame is still shaky at QB, so USC a big advantage in that area. USC is 19th against the run and should force Notre Dame to throw, it's weak point. Notre Dame has won 4 in a row, one impressive win vs. Michigan St. USC is seeing 55.55% of the action and both teams 3-3 ATS this season. The last 2 between these 2 decided by an average of 5.5 points. USC is 10-3 last 13 ATS as road underdog, but just 3-12 ATS last 15 after ATS win. Notre Dame is 10-3 ATS last 13 after a bye week, but just 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: USC +9 - There is not a big discrepancy with these two, so it should be a close one, and defensively favors USC.

Texas Tech +29 at Oklahoma: Oklahoma has proven they are a dominant team, led by Landry Jones and with Broyles, Whaley, Stills and others, and also one of the toughest defenses in the country. Texas Tech spreads it out and puts up points, but clearly over-matched here, losing to A&M and Kansas St., and without Stephens at RB, gone for the season with injury. Texas Tech is 111th against the run, but is 21st against the pass. Texas Tech is seeing 54.6% of the action as a cover, and both teams are 4-2 ATS this season. Texas Tech is 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdog, but 44-18-1 last 63 ATS after a loss. The Sooners 7-2 ATS last 9 as 10.5 or more point favorite.

The Pick: Oklahoma -29 - Sooners will run up the score trying to impress the pollsters

Wisconsin -7 at Michigan State: Michigan St. has one slip-up this season against Notre Dame, but otherwise impressive, specifically on defense, although Gholston suspended for this game. Wisconsin is 6-0, ranked 6th in the country and has had an easy schedule so far, but did beat Nebraska 48-17. Wisconsin has one of the best QB-RB-WR combos with Wilson, Ball and Toon, but the Spartans play aggressive defense and will have home field advantage. Wisconsin is ranked in the Top 5 for most offensive categories and is also 4th defensively against the pass. Wisconsin is seeing 66% of the betting action, and is 5-0-1 ATS this season, while Spartans are 4-2. The last 4 have been decided by an average of just 5.5 points with these two teams. Michigan St. is 1-7 last 8 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: Wisconsin -7 - Badgers Take Advantage of this One to Impress the Polls - Spartans Tough Defense, but coming off an emotional win could suffer a let-down against well rested Badger team

Illinois -3.5 at Purdue: Illinois lost it's first game of the year at home against Ohio St, unable to do anything offensively and beating a very suspect team that is ranked #23. Scheelhaase to Jenkins is a great combo, but yet to face much competition. Purdue is coming off a 5 point road loss to Penn State and lost by 28 to Notre Dame earlier this season. Illinois' defense ranks Top 25 in all categories and also 20th offensively rushing the ball. Illinois is receiving 69% of the public money, and is just 3-4 ATS this season, Purdue 3-3. Illinois is 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road, but 7-20 ATS last 27 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Purdue is 5-2 ATS last 7 as home underdog.

The Pick: Illinois -3.5 - Taking the Road Favorite - Illinois Gets a Mulligan and Proves they are much better than they looked last week

Georgia Tech +3 at Miami: Georgia Tech lost its bid for a perfect season last week and has been looking weaker and weaker each week, really losing momentum as teams catch on to the Triple-Option where the QB seems to keep the ball way too often. The task this week is trying to win in Miami, a team coming off a close win at UNC and almost pulled an upset at Virginia Tech. Miami is 94th against the run, a match-up problem, but plenty of athleticism defensively to defend the Yellow Jackets option offense. Georgia Tech is seeing 55.7% of the action this week, and are 4-2-1 ATS this season, while Miami is 3-3. Yellow Jackets are 16-7-1 last 24 as road underdog, while Miami is just 4-14 ATS last 18 at home vs teams with a winning road record.

The Pick: Miami -3 - Yellow Jackets are one dimensional and have not looked impressive, and this is a tough road game, advantage to the Hurricanes

Bonus Picks:

Indiana +24 at Iowa

Kansas St. -11 at Kansas

Virginia Tech -21 vs Boston College

Nevada -11 vs Fresno St

UTEP -9.5 at Colorado St

Teaser Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 6 Wagers

A few bets to go along with spread picks in earlier post:

Teasers:
5 Teams, 6.5 Points (+400)
 Packers -9 vs Rams
 Steelers -6.5 vs Jaguars
 Panthers +10 vs Falcons
 Saints Pick-Em
 Dallas Cowboys +13.5 at Patriots

6 Teams, 7 Points (+500)
 Colts +13 vs Bengals
 Ravens Pick vs Texans
 Raiders Pick vs Browns
 Vikings +10 vs Bears
 Bills +10 vs Giants
 Skins +10 vs Eagles

Over-Under Plays:
 Eagles/Skins Over 47
 Falcons/Panthers Under 50
 Ravens/Texans Under 44.5
 Raiders/Browns Over 45
 Cowboys/Pats Over 56
** Can tease these 6 Points in a teaser

Player Props:
 1pm Most Rushing Yards Ahmad Bradshaw 5/1
 1pm Most Receiving Yards Steve Smith 5/1
 James Starks Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
 Mike Wallace Over 85 Receiving Yards
 Roddy White Over 85 Receiving Yards
 AJ Green Over 4.5 Receptions
 Ahmad Bradshaw Over 3.5 Receptions
 Ray Rice Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
 Dez Bryant Over 4.5 Receptions

NFL Week 6 Match-Ups and Spread Picks

After a 9-4 ATS week where 3 of the losses were from picking road underdogs, looking to get at least 10 of 13 this week, though a bunch of wide spreads this week, and here are the games:

St. Louis Rams +15 at Green Bay Packers: Double digit underdogs are 6-2 ATS this season in the NFL, and that is about the only thing the Rams have going for them. The Rams are 0-4, disappointing for a team that expected to wins its division this year, and Bradford has struggled. The Packers are 5-0 and averaging a 12 point margin of victory, although the schedule has been fairly easy. The Rams come in ranked 32nd against the pass, and Rodgers has so many weapons that I doubt we see a single punt from Green Bay this weekend. However, the Packers are 30th against the pass, but Bradford is likely to see a lot of blitzes and the game is at Lambeau. St Louis is 1-4 ATS this season and Packers are 4-1, and 68.4% of the public betting on the Packers to cover. Rams are 5-13 ATS last 18 as a 10.5 point or more underdog, while Packers are 7-1 ATS last 8 home games, but just 6-16-2 last 24 ATS as 10.5 or more favorite.

The Pick: Packers -15 - I See Green Bay Putting Up 45 and St Louis closer to 13, and I have the honor of playing a team in my high roller Fantasy Football league that has all Green Bay Packers.

Jacksonville +13 at Pittsburgh: The Steelers at home for the 2nd week in a row after a dominating performance against the Titans, just when people were counting them out. Pittsburgh still has plenty of injury concerns, but is 1st in the league against the pass. Jacksonville has lost 4 in a row, and struggling with a rookie QB, and Steelers will make it their top priority to shut down MJD. For a 13 point spread, Jacksonville does have a Top 10 ranked defense in the NFL that could keep the score low enough to cover. The Jags are 1-4 ATS this season and Steelers are 2-3, and 60.57% of the public siding with the Steelers. Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS last 12 against teams with winning records and 0-6 ATS last 6 as underdog. Steelers are 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, but only 6-14 ATS as a 10.5 or more point favorite.

The Pick: Jags +13 - Steelers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team and I feel that I should side with one of the double digit underdogs, and the Jags play good enough defense to keep this game in range, and MJD could bust a few plays.

Eagles -2 at Redskins: The Eagles continue to disappoint, and although involved in close games, making too many mistakes with penalties and turnovers, both of which are tough to correct, especially on the road against a divisional foe. Skins come off a bye well rested and feature one of the NFL's top ranked defenses, although wins against Arizona and St Louis were unimpressive. The Eagles are 30th against the run and Washington should control the tempo, running Torrain, Helu and Hightower in a bruising effort, and the Eagles known to quit. The Eagles still have the public's faith with 59.7% of the action, even at 1-4 ATS this season while Skins are 3-1. The Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, while Washington is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as underdog, but just 7-15-2 ATS last 24 at home.

The Pick: Skins +2 - I have bet against the Eagle all season and won, and I see Washington controlling this on the ground and causing Vick havoc all day long.

49ers +4 at Detroit Lions: The 49ers are 4-1 and could easily be 5-0, but I am still not a believer, even after thrashing Tampa Bay 48-3. I am a believer in the 5-0 Lions who will be at home in front of a pumped crown once again. Detroit has a ton of weapons on offense and the pass rush should really shake up Alex Smith, who lost Josh Morgan with a broken ankle. The 49ers are 23rd against the pass and should have no answer for Stafford to Mega-Tron. Both teams are 4-0-1 ATS this season and the public has 59.9% of the bets on the Lions. 49ers are 11-4-3 last 18 ATS as an underdog, while Lions are 14-4-3 ATS last 21 against the NFC and 10-0-1 last 11 ATS after a SU win.

The Pick: Lions -4 - Detroit keep rolling and exposes SF as a fake

Panthers +4 at Atlanta Falcons: There have been a lot of disappointing teams in the league, but Atlanta is at the top of that list for me. Falcons are 2-3 and could be 0-5, and now without Julio Jones this week. They are 28th against the pass and Cam Newton comes in averaging around 400 yards a game on the road. Carolina has kept a bunch of games close and is on the brink of a big win, and it may come this week. Panthers are 27th against the run so Turner could be in for a big day and Falcons will play clock control. Carolina is 4-1 ATS and Atlanta is 1-4, and Falcons with 52% of the action so far. Panthers are 4-9 ATS last 13 as underdog, and Falcons are 17-5 ATS last 22 following a loss.

The Pick: Panthers +4 - Upset Alert - Carolina could win this straight up, but expect the game to come down to the wire

Colts +7 at Bengals: I never thought I'd see this spread for Colts/Bengals, but things have changed quickly for these teams. The 0-5 Colts are showing improvement and have lost the last 4 by an average of just 5.5 points. Painter has played well at QB, although may be pressured this week with Addai out with injury. The Bengals are 3-2 and winning with defense and Dalton playing game-manager. Dalton could make some mistakes this week with Mathis and Freeney providing pressure. The Colts are 31st against the run, so Benson set for a big afternoon. Bengals are 3rd against the pass and 7th against the run, a tough day ahead for the Colts offense. Cincy is 4-1 ATS this season and Colts are 2-3, and 59.5% betting Indy. Colts are 8-3 ATS last 11 as an underdof, while Bengals are 7-0 ATS last 7 versus AFC opponents, but just 3-13 last 16 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.

The Pick: Colts +7 - Indy improving and Cincy winning close games makes for another close one.

Bilss +3 at Giants: This could be the trickiest game of the week, the underdog Bills love that role and facing a Giants team that looked awful at home against the Seahawks, and make this one look way too obvious. Giants lack many quality wins, while Buffalo is for real, although potentially without defensive stars Merriman and Kyle Williams for this game. The Giants are 21st against the run and not much better against the pass, and the Bills know how to score points. However, Buffalo is 29th against the run and 26th against the pass, looking like a shoot-out, so bet the over. Both teams are 3-2 ATS this season, and 62.65% of bets riding the Bills. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 0 to 3 points, while NY is just 4-10-1 last 15 as home favorite ATS.

The Pick: Bills +3 - No Edge Here and Hate Going with Obvious Choice, but both Defenses Playing Poorly, so Counting on Ole Miss Education of Eli to make more mistakes than Harvard-man Fitzpatrick.

Texans +7 at Ravens: Houston, a team that looks to be playoff-caliber, opens as an 8 point dog to the Ravens. Houston lost a tough one last week and is not playing up to potential, also hurt by the absence of Andre Johnson, and now without Mario Williams. Baltimore is well-rested coming off a bye and the Raven's D is back to its old form, causing a ton of turnovers. Arian Foster is the key to the game and faces the 2nd ranked run defense. Houston is 3-2 ATS this season and Ravens are 3-1, and 56.3% of the public taking the Texans to cover. Texans are 1-5 ATS last 6 as road underdog, while Baltimore is 47-22-1 last 70 ATS as home favorite.

The Pick: Baltimore -7 - Betting Against the Dumb Money - Texans Ship ready to Sink Along with Coach Kubiak's Job Security

Browns +7 at Raiders: My Raiders at home for the next 3 and 3-2, chance to go 6-2 with the schedule, while Browns are coming off a bye week at 2-2, wins against the winless Dolphins and Colts. Oakland tends to make enough mistakes to keep these games it should win close, and facing the 25th ranked rushing defense, McFadden should have a huge day, though Browns are 4th against the pass. Oakland is near the bottom of the league on all defensive stats,, but does have a good pass rush. Cleveland gets Peyton Hillis back, and Raiders do struggle more against big physical backs. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season while Browns are 1-2-1 and 72.8% of the action on the Raiders,a heavy bias. Browns are 7-0 ATS last 7 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Oakland is 2-12 ATS as home favorite last 14.

The Pick: Browns +7 - Love my Raiders and Expect a Win, but I also know they play down for bad teams, and statistics point to a cover while all the money is on one side.

Cowboys +7 at Patriots: Dallas goes on the road to face the Pats and gets back Miles Austin and Felix, Romo, and Dez all should be healthier, making for a high scoring game against the Swiss cheese Pats defense. Dallas is 1st against the run, and will force Brady to pass, and expect Ryan's Defense to blitz Brady all day long, although he often thrives with that approach. However, if Ware and company can get a few shots on Brady early, he does get rattles and makes mistakes. Dallas is 1-2-1 ATS and New England is 4-1 this season, and 67.3% on the Pats in this one. Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 as underdog, while New England is 39-18-1 last 58 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite.

The Pick: Dallas +7 - Plenty of Offense this One, Take the Over and if Romo Avoids the Mistakes, Dallas can actually UPSET the Pats this weekend.

Saints -4.5 at Tampa Bay: The Saints have won 4 in a row and are on the road for 3rd straight against the Bucs who got blown out 48-3 last week vs 49ers, although a tough game traveling to the West Coast after a Monday Nighter. Bucs are without top RB Blount this week, so Freeman needs to make plays. Tampa is much better than what last week's game showed, but defensively 20th against the pass. Saints have the edge on both sides of the ball here, although on the road. Saints are 3-2 ATS this season and Bucs are 2-3, and 72% of public betting New Orleans to cover. Saints are just 2-6 ATS last 8 road games, and Bucs are 5-17 ATS last 22 at home, and 3-13 ATS last 16 as home underdog.

The Pick: Saints -4.5 - I see Tampa struggling on both sides on the ball and Brees will lead the Saints to at least a 7 point win, so siding with the Squares here

Vikings +3 at Bears: The Vikings take their 31st ranked passing game and 3rd ranked rushing game to Chicago, and are 1-4, but could be 5-0. Chicago is 27th against the pass and 28th against the run, and lost 3 of last 4. Cutler is not getting it done, his offensive line partly to blame, and Forte is the Bears Offense, and tough this week against 5th ranked run D. Chicago is seeing 62.7% of the bets, although 1-4 ATS this season while Vikings are 2-2-1. This is a huge game for the Bears season, and they should be fired up. Vikings are 2-9-1 last 12 as underdog ATS, while Chicago is 2-13 ATS last 15 Week 6 games.

The Pick: Vikings +3 - Peterson vs Forte and Vikings D is much Better so Edge goes to Peterson and the Vikings as long as McNabb doesn't screw things up. Also, Peppers may be out for the Bears. I'm looking for a Vikings win, not just a cover.

Dolphins +7 at Jets: The 0-4 Dolphins on the road to face an angry Jets team on a losing streak, a good way to turn things around. Miami is much better than the 0-4 record shows, but has now lost Henne at QB. Jets lost 3 in a row, but quality opponents. Jets should have no problem winning this one at home, but looking at the spread, need to see the offense click in order to cover. Jets are 26th against the run and Miami has Bush and Thomas as quality runners. Miami is 31st against the pass so Sanchez should finally get things going. Jets are 1-4 ATS and Miami 0-3-1 ATS, and 64.65% betting NY for this game. Miami is 9-3-1 last 13 ATS as road underdog, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. AFC East. Jets are 1-4 ATS on Monday Night, but 9-3 ATS vs. teams with losing records.

The Pick: Jets -7 - Statement Game - Turn Things Around

College Football Teaser and Over-Under Picks

Teasers
6 Point, 6 Team Teaser (+600)
 Michigan +8 vs Mich. St
 South Carolina +3 vs Miss. St.
 Georgia Tech -1.5 at Virginia
 LSU -12 at Tennessee
 Oklahoma St -2 at Texas
 Duke +18.5 vs FSU

6.5 Point, 7 Team Teaser (+550)
 Baylor +14.5 at Texas A&M
 Missouri -9.5 vs Iowa St
 Wake Forest +13 vs Virginia Tech
 Clemson -2.5 at Virginia
 Vanderbilt +17 vs Georgia
 Kansas St. +10 at Texas Tech
 Northwestern +12.5 at Iowa

Over-Under Bets
 Michigan/Michigan St. Under 47
 Miami/UNC Under 52
 G-Tech/Virginia Under 56
 LSU/Tenn Over 46
 Oregon/ASU Under 66

College 12 Pack - Week 7

A great week of football ahead and 12 match-ups I am focusing on are:

Baylor +9 at Texas A&M: Baylor is 4-1 and comes in to A&M for a #20 vs #21 match-up. Baylor bounced back last week following its first loss of the season, while A&M held on to beat Texas Tech, avoiding its 3rd straight second half choke. A&M has the talent of a Top 10 team with Tannerhill at QB, Fuller at WR and Gray at RB. RG3 is turning heads at Baylor and can do everything, while Top WR Wright is a big time play maker, although did look injured at the end of last week's game and I am not able to get an update. Baylor is 3-1 ATS this season and A&M is 1-4, likely the reason 65.7% of the public is betting Baylor. Although a shoot-out is expected with two suspect defenses, Texas A&M may burn some clock with the run-game ranked 17th in the Nation against Baylor's 82nd ranked run defense. Baylor will have to throw the ball to win and A&M does pressure the QB, and Griffin is taking way too many hits this season. Baylor is 2-6 ATS last 8 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while A&M is 6-13 ATS last 19 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Baylor +9 - Betting with the Squares - A&M Can Not Put Teams Away and Baylor has Plenty of Offense to Keep this Close

Michigan +2 at Michigan State: The battle of Michigan is one of the better match-ups between these two teams in years, and the 6-0 Wolverines try to stay undefeated against a quality Spartans team. Michigan has yet to really be tested, a fairly easy schedule and relies on Denard Robinson for most of it's offense. Michigan St. does not have a very impressive schedule thus far either, and lost 31-13 to a Notre Dame team that the Wolverines beat. Cousins to Cunningham is solid on offense, and they are only allowing 10 points a game, one of the top defenses in the country with the 2nd ranked passing defense and 3rd ranked rushing defense. Michigan is 5-1 ATS this year and Michigan St. is 3-2 ATS, and 55.6% of the public betting on the road underdog, although Michigan St. has won the past 3 meetings. Michigan is 7-20 ATS versus teams with winning records, and 5-23 ATS the last 28 conference games. The Spartans are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Michigan State -2 - Defense and Coming Off a Bye Week with 2 Weeks to Prepare, and Throw in Home Field Advantage and I see a Senior Sweep of the Wolverines.



South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State: The 15th ranked Gamecocks head to Miss. St after a 54-3 win against Kentucky with a new QB at the helm, Garcia officially back in the dog house. South Carolina is very over-rated, having lost its only game against a quality team, that being Auburn who is not even ranked. South Carolina does have the best RB in the Nation with Lattimore and Jeffery at WR, so plenty of weapons. Miss. St has been very disappointing, starting the season ranked, but now 3-3, losses versus Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Relf and Ballard are good players, but have struggled. South Carolina is 3rd against the pass, but 60th against the run, and Miss St. is 21st against the pass. South Carolina is 3-3 ATS this year and Miss. St is 1-5, and 72.3% of the public betting on the road favorite Gamecocks. South Carolina is 4-0 ATS last 4 road games, while Miss. St. is 12-5-1 last 18 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog. South Carolina gets a boost with star D-End Melvin Ingram returning from a foot injury.

The Pick: South Carolina - 3 - The team will rally after dismissing Senior QB Garcia from the team and Miss. St's O-Line has been terrible, and will struggle.

Florida State -14 at Duke: FSU has lost 3 in a row against Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest, quality teams, and now on the road against a surprisingly good Blue Devil's team. FSU has no rushing attack, but Duke is 103rd against the pass. Florida State's defense ranks in the top 25 against the run and pass. Duke has won 3 in a row, but against weak opponents. FSU recently lost its RB and O-Tackle to season ending injuries, a team in a tough situation that is one of the worst in the country with turnover differential. FSU is 1-4 ATS this year and Duke is 3-2 ATS, and 68.9% of the action betting the Seminoles. FSU is 5-11 ATS last 16 as a 10.5 or more favorite, and 1-7 ATS last 8 conference games. Duke is 8-21 ATS last 29 as a home underdog, but 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in October.

The Pick: Duke +14 - Duke is at home with the best chance it may ever get to do the unthinkable, beat FSU in football. Duke will be able to put up some points, and with a few turnovers can actually see this one as a major UPSET.

Georgia Tech -7.5 at Virginia: The Yellow Jackets are off to a 6-0 start and continue to put up big offensive numbers, although its Triple-Option offense has looked a bit shaky the last two weeks and the defense has allowed lesser teams to cover late in games. Teva Washington is a dual threat QB but needs to read the pitch more often, and has been taking way too many hits. Virginia is 3-2, and its best opponent was UNC, just an 11 point loss on the road. Virginia's Defense actually ranks 35th against the run and 26th against the pass, and also Top 40 in most offensive stats, so the numbers make Virginia out to be a better team than the results have shown. Georgia Tech is 4-1-1 ATS and Virginia is 1-4, and a heavy bias with 81.57% of the public leaning on Georgia Tech. Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 last as road favorite, while Virginia is 2-8 last 10 conference games ATS, but 11-5 ATS last 16 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -7.5 - I was going to go with the home underdog, but I can't see them keeping up with GT to keep it close, although the way the Yellow Jackets burn the clock with long drives always makes them a tough cover.

LSU -17.5 at Tennessee: LSU heads to Tennessee and has been rolling over every team this season, and I see no reason a Vols team with Bray injured at QB and Simms in, has a chance to keep this close. Tennessee has kept games close this year, but a big discrepancy in talent in this one. LSU is 4-2 ATS and Vols are 2-1-2 and 72.26% of the action betting LSU this week. One interesting stat is that LSU is 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road favorite of 10.5 or more, and Vols are 9-4 ATS last 13 as a 10.5 or greater underdog, so the stats point to a potential underdog to cover.

The Pick: LSU -17.5 - Hate Betting with Such a Public Bias, but this game should be a Lay-Up for LSU, hopefully not looking ahead to the showdown with Alabama in 2 weeks.

Ohio State +3.5 at Illinois: Illinois has been one of the surprised this season, off to a 6-0 start and ranked #15, and QB Scheelhaase is one of the most under-rated stars in college football. The issue is that the Illini have been winning games by small margins against sub-par teams. Ohio St. lost by 3 to Mich. St. and blew a big lead to lose by 7 against Nebraska. Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season and 57.8% of the money betting with Illinois. Ohio St.'s Defense is ranked 22nd against the pass and 36th against the rush, also stellar on 3rd downs. Ohio St. is 21-7 ATS last 28 after a loss, while Illinois is 10-4 ATS last 14 conference games.

The Pick: Ohio St. +3.5 - As bad as Ohio St. has been this year, there is a strong defense in place and if they stick to running the ball they can keep it close against a team that has a trend of tight games.



Oklahoma State -7 at Texas: Oklahoma St. has to be excited heading to Texas if it watched film of last week's game when Landry Jones torched the inexperienced Longhorns secondary, and OK. St has the highest scoring team in the nation. Texas looked terrible on offense as well last week, and although the Cowboys Defense is not up to par with the Sooners, Texas is in for a long day. OK. St. is somewhat unproven, it's only test was A&M and that was a 1 point win. Texas is still 4-1 and ranked #22, but ran into a buzz saw last week. The Cowboys are 103rd against the pass and 75th against the rush, so Texas should have no problem scoring this week. Texas is 3-2 ATS and OK. St. is 4-1, and 76% of the money betting on OK. St. this week to cover. The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS last 16, while Texas is 1-6 ATS last 7 conference games and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 versus winning teams.

The Pick: Oklahoma St. -7 - Too Much Offense and Texas Will Not Keep Pace

Clemson -8 at Maryland: The Taj Boyd and Sammy Watkins show head to Maryland at 6-0 and ranked 8th in the Nation, beating good teams along the way. Maryland hung in last week to cover against Georgia Tech and looked like a completely different team in the second half. Maryland has kept games close against its two best opponents, West Virginia and G-Tech. Maryland is 98th in the country against the rush, and it's offense is not in the Top 50 in any category. Clemson is 5-1 ATS and Maryland is 2-3, and 75.6% of the public siding with the Tigers. Clemson's Taj Boyd at QB does have a hip injury, but expected to be ready for the game. Clemson is 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games, while Maryland is 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Maryland is in the middle of a QB controversy and will be missing its leading tackler for the game.

The Pick: Clemson -8 (Only if Taj Boyd Starts)

Florida -2 at Auburn: Florida has been blown out by LSU and Alabama in back-to-back weeks, arguably the best 2 teams in the country, and lacks any quality wins this season, and now on the road to face off with Auburn, a team that has climbed back into the Top 25, but lost against Clemson and Arkansas by an average of 19 points, its top 2 opponents this season. Auburn is 104th in the Nation on Defense, while Florida is 11th on defense. Florida is 3-2-1 ATS and Auburn is 2-4 ATS, currently 58.4% of the action betting on Auburn. The Gators are 14-3 ATS last 17 as road favorite, while Auburn is 2-9 ATS last 11 after a loss.

The Pick: Florida -2 - Gators Speed will Make the Difference and Allow them to Get Back on Track

Kansas State +3.5 at Texas Tech: Kansas St. has been one of my betting darlings this season and once again I feel this spread is off. K-St. is ranked #17 and plays great defense, quality wins against Baylor, Missouri and Miami the last 3 weeks. Texas Tech made the game close against A&M, but did not look too impressive, and will be relying on the passing game. The Wildcats are 17th on overall yards allowed defensively, and Texas Tech is 115th against the run, while K-St. is averaging 205 yards a game rushing. Both teams are 4-1 ATS this season, but Texas Tech seeing 57% of the bets. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 as road underdog, while Red Raiders are 15-6 ATS last 21 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Kansas St. +3.5 and Potential Upset Win - Defense and Running the Ball will Keep the Ball out of Texas Tech's Spread Offense Led by Seth Doege

Arizona State +14 at Oregon: This could have been a tricky one for the Ducks if it was at Arizona St. but the home-field advantage will play a big role, the team hurting without star RB LaMichael James. Oregon took exception to the LSU loss and has been rolling ever since, although it plays in the Pac 12 with a cake schedule. ASU is a lot better than people think and at 5-1 ranked #18 with just a loss of 3 points to Illinois this season, and already have beaten two ranked teams in USC and Missouri. ASU's big QB Osweiler can toss it around and keep the Sun Devils alive in this one for awhile. Oregon is 3-2 ATS this season and ASU is 2-4, and 58.57% of the public with the Ducks in this one. ASU is 8-2 ATS last 10 as 10.5 point or more underdog, while Oregon is 19-6-1 last 26 as 10.5 point or more favorite.

The Pick: Arizona St. +14 - Ducks win, but face first real threat of season in what should be a great game

Bonus Games without the In Depth Analysis:

SMU -3.5 vs Central Florida

BYU +3 vs. Oregon St.

Vanderbilt +11.5 vs Georgia

Northwestern +6 vs Iowa

Purdue +11.5 vs Penn St.

NFL Week 5 Wagers

Along with the spread picks, a few other bets to consider:


Teasers:
4 Team, 6 Point Teaser (+300)
 Arizona +9 vs Vikings
 Raiders +11 vs Houston
 Saints -1 vs Panthers
 Tampa +9 vs SF. 49ers

6 team, 7 Point Teaser (+500)
 Chiefs +10 vs Colts
 Bengals +7 vs Jags
 Titans +10.5 vs Steelers
 Chargers +3 vs Broncos
 Giants -3 vs Seattle
 Pats -1 vs Pats

Over-Under Plays
 Arizona/Minnesota Under 45.5
 Raiders/Texans Over 49
 Giants/Seahawks Over 44
 Packers/Falcons Over 53

Player Props
 1pm Most Passing Yards Fitzpatrick at 10/1
 1pm Most Rushing Yards McFadden at 5/1
 1pm Most Receiving Yards Percy Harvin 20/1
 Maclin Receiving Yards Over 65.5
 Ingram Rushing Yards Over 50.5
 Steve Smith (CAR) Receiving Yards Over 75.5
 AJ Green Receptions Over 4.5

NFL Week 5 Match-Ups

We are a quarter through the season, so now each team has started to show their true colors, making for, hopefully, easier analysis of the match-ups. We have a few teams on bye weeks, so less flexibility in the Parlays/Teasers. As for this week's games (ATS = Against the Spread). I am picking a lot of underdogs to cover this week, feel a week of close low scoring games coming as we enter October.

Kansas City +3 at Indianapolis Colts: The 1-3 Chiefs on the road against the 0-4 Colts, although Indy has been in 3 straight close games and Painter looked to be in the zone last week. The Chiefs coming off a 5 point win against the Vikings and lost only by 3 versus the Chargers, starting to overcome some early season injuries. The Colts are near the bottom of the league in all offensive categories, while the Chiefs are near the bottom defensively. The Chiefs have a good pass rush and the Colts )-Line is shuffling due to injuries, potentially could be the difference. Both teams are 2-2 ATS this season, and 70.5% of the public betting with the Colts. Chiefs are 9-4 ATS last 13 as underdog, but 2-8 ATS last 10 versus the AFC. Colts are 0-3-1 last 4 ATS at home as 0.5 to 3 point underdog.

The Pick: Chiefs +3 - The Pass Rush a Difference Maker for KC and a FG Battle

Arizona +3 at Minnesota: The Vikings are 0-4 and in dire need of a QB change, but Peterson should have success against the Cards, and Minnestoa lost 4 games by an average of 5 points per game. Arizona has lost 3 in a row losing by 1, 3, and 4 points, so this has all the makings of a close one. The Vikings are 28th against the pass and Arizona throws the ball fairly well. 53.4% of the action siding with the Vikings. Cards are 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdogs, while Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 as home favorite, but 2-8-1 last 11 ATS against the NFC.

The Pick: Arizona +3 - Cards will find success in the air, and only need to shut down Peterson to win this one, and likely will win this money line.

Philadelphia -3 at Buffalo: The struggling Eagles on the road to face the Bills, who are 3-1 and seeing no respect from Vegas with this line. The Bills are always involved in close games, and Philly could struggle defensively as they allow 6 yards a carry, so Fred Jackson should be on for a big day. The Bills defense will be the key to this game, trying to slow down an Eagles offense that has yet to click. The Eagles D should be fired up after Frank Gore's comments, basically saying they are weak and quit. The Eagles are ranked 2nd in rushing and 9th in passing, while the Bill's D is 25th. 55.9% of the action is on the Eagles thus far, though the Eagles are 1-7 ATS last 8 as a favorite.

The Pick: Bills +3 - Buffalo suffered a let-down last week, and many are questioning them, but I expect them to bounce back well at home.

Oakland +5 at Houston: The Raiders will be playing with heavy hearts following the passing of the Ultimate Raider, Al Davis. Oakland is coming off a loss to the Pats, a game they easily could have won if not for a few questionable calls and to mistakes by Campbell, the Raiders out-gaining the Patriots. This will be a battle of the leagues Top 2 rushing teams, McFadden versus Foster, and the Texans passing game takes a hit losing Andre Johnson for a few weeks. Houston actually has a fairly solid Defense, although the Saints exposed them last week, ranked 10th against the pass. The Raiders have struggled defensively all season and needs to force turnovers to win this game. Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season and 53.1% of the action on the Texans, although the line opened at -7 so the "Sharps" appear to be leaning on the Raiders. Raiders are 12-2 ATS last 14 after a ATS loss, and 5-2 ATS last 7 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, while Houston is 4-0 ATS as a favorite, but 4-10-2 ATS last 16 following a ATS win. Houston has won the 2 at home against the Raiders by an average of 18 points, so the Raiders do tend to struggle in Houston.

The Pick: Raiders +5 - "Win One for Al" Carries the Raiders to an Emotional Victory

New Orleans -7 at Carolina: The Saints are a team that lacks the killer instinct to cover spreads often, and heads to Carolina against a Panthers team that has played well all season. Houston and Green Bay had a lot of success throwing the ball on the Saints and Cam Newton is looking set for another big day. Carolina has yet to lose by more than 7 and have faced quality opponents in the Bears and Packers. Panthers are 6th against the pass, so the Saints may need to lean a bit more on Ingram and the running game against a 31st ranked rushing defense. Right now 65.33% of the money is on the Saints, which leads me to believe this is not "smart money". Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season, the Panthers just 3-9 ATS last 12 an underdog, while Saints are 2-9 ATS versus teams with losing records.

The Pick: Panthers +7 - Saints lack the "killer instinct" and the Panthers will put points on the board, and always seem to hang around late in games.

Cincinnati +3 at Jacksonville: The Bengals have to be happy sitting 2-2,a nd Dalton has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. The Bengals two losses by a combined 7 points. The Jags are 1-3 losing 3 in a row to the Jets, Panthers and Saints. Going unnoticed this season in the Bengals Defense, ranked 1st in total yards, 3rd against the pass and 7th against the rush, while Jacksonville struggles throwing the ball, lacking many weapons. Right now 54% of the action is on the Bengals who are 3-1 ATS this season while Jags are 1-3 ATS. Bengals are 6-0 ATS last 6 against the AFC and 5-0 ATS last 5 as an underdog. Jags are 5-1 ATS last 6 as favorite, but 1-6 ATS last 7 overall. Expecting windy and rainy conditions, favoring a close game.

The Pick: Bengals +3 - Cincy focuses on shutting down MJD and wins a tight defensive game, and an ugly one for those crazy enough to choose to watch this one.

Tennessee +3.5 at Pitt: The Steelers are not looking good at all, turning the ball over and giving up a ton of sacks, and now have to face the Titans who are one of the best defenses in the league. Big Ben has a hurt foot and Mendenhall may sit this one out. The Titans are quietly 3-1 and Hasselbeck is off to a strong start, while CJ2K is about to get it going. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS this season and 51.17% of the action on the Titans. Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, while Pitt is 4-0 ATS at home, but 7-21-1 last 29 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Titans +3.5 - "Sharps" are moving this spread and Steeler injuries and turnovers are likely the difference, see Titans winning this straight up.

Seattle +9.5 at NY Giants: Seattle tends to struggle on the road and heads East for a 1pm start, and has been unable to do anything on offense this season. The Giants D should force turnovers and Manning should pick apart the Seahawk's D. Giants likely without Tuck and Jacobs, but unlikely to need them in what should be a run-away. Giants are 3-1 ATS this season and Seattle 2-2 ATS with 68.6% of the action on the G-Men. Seattle is 6-22 ATS last 28 as road underdog, and Giants are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 in October.

The Pick: Giants -9.5 - I see NY Winning this One by 17 or More

Tampa Bay +3 at SF 49ers: Tampa has won 3 in a row and remains under-rated, a young team that can run the ball well, protect the QB, and play Defense although wins have come in tight games. The 49ers are 3-1, quality win against Philly and an overtime loss against the Cowboys, but I still have plenty of doubts with this team. The 49ers are 27th against the pass, but 4th against the run, so Freeman is finally going to need to win one for the Bucs. SF is seeing 55% of the money and is 3-0-1 ATS this season. Bucs are 11-0 ATS last 11 on road versus teams with winning home records, and 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdog. 49ers are 2-9-2 last 13 ATS following a ATS win. Tampa is coming off a short week playing on Monday Night and has to travel to the West Coast.

The Pick: Tampa Bay +3 - I Continue to See the 49ers as Over-Rated although Harbaugh is a great coach, but I'll side with Raheem Morris

NY Jets +7.5 at NE Patriots: A classic battle and although the Jets are struggling they seem to always be prepared for the Pats. Tom Brady is smart enough to pick on Cromartie all day long, especially if Welker is matched up with Revis. The Pats have not really been able to win by a large spread this year due to their terrible Defense, now without their top linebacker. Sanchez has looked awful and Rex Ryan should try and keep the ball on the ground. The Jets are second against the pass, but 27th against the run, so a strength on strength match-up. The Pats are 32nd against the pass, but the Jets can not do much offensively. Jets are 1-3 ATS this season and Pats are 3-1, but 55% of the money on the Jets. Pats are 14-4 ATS last 18 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.

The Pick: Pats -7.5 - Expect Brady to turn the 2nd ranked Jets passing D inside out

San Diego -3.5 at Denver: The notorious slow starting Chargers are 3-1 heading to Denver, a team struggling to find an identity. San Diego has not exactly been impressive with 7, 3, and 10 point wins against 3 teams with 1 combined win. Denver was torn apart by Rodgers and the Packers, so Rivers has to be excited for this one, although may be without Vincent Jackson. Chargers are 5th against the pass and 12th against the run, so I expect Denver to be held to under 13 points, and Denver is 23rd against the pass, so looking for 28 or more by San Diego. 72.7% of the action on San Diego in this one, a heavy skew, and Denver is 1-3 ATS this season. Chargers are 2-6-1 last 9 ATS on the road, and 1-6-1 ATS as road favorite. Broncos are 11-5-2 ATS last 18 as home underdog, but 8-21-2 ATS last 31 versus AFC West.

The Pick: San Diego -3.5 - Statistics and the "Dumb Money" Call for Denver to Cover, but Football IQ Says San Diego Wins by 10+

Green Bay -6 at Atlanta: The 4-0 Packers are looking like a team that could run the table this season, and no real answer for their spread offense. Also, the Defense finds ways to make big plays and Atlanta is struggling to protect Matt Ryan, really hampering the offense. Atlanta should be angry, following a loss in the playoffs last season to the Packers who went on to win it all. Atlanta has been disappointing this season, and Green Bay's stout run defense will force Atlanta to be one dimensional against the Packers 31st ranked pass defense. Atlanta should try to control the clock by running, but may struggle, and if so this one turns into a Sunday Night Shootout. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this year and Atlanta 1-3, and 65.4% of the action on the Packers. Atlanta has the chance to make this game the turning point of its season, so I expect its best effort. Packers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, but Atlanta 5-1 last 6 ATS as home underdog, but 4-16-1 ATS last 21 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The line opened closer to 4 points, so "Sharps" look to be favoring Green Bay.

The Pick: Green Bay -6 - I see way too many concerns with Atlanta's O-Line stopping the Aggressive Packers D and take Rodgers in a shootout anytime

Chicago +6 at Detroit: The 4-0 Lions are looking to continue their streak at home against the Bears, but should focus on not getting down big at the half for the 3rd straight week. Detroit with two straight squeakers of 3 and 4 points, but facing a Bears D ranked 29th against the pass and 23rd against the run. The Bears are also going to struggle against the Lions pass rush with Cutler known for making bad decisions. Detroit is seeing 57.2% of the public money and are 3-0-1 ATS this season, the Bears 1-3 ATS. Bears are 5-1 ATS last 6 Monday Night games, but 8-23 ATS last 31 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Lions are 12-2-2 last 16 ATS after a ATS win and 16-5-2 ATS last 23 overall.

The Pick: Lions -5 - Expect them to shine, finally in a prime-time game and Bears D will have no answer for the passing or running game, while Cutler will look silly.

College Football Wagers

Along with the picks below, put together a few teasers that pay-out nicely, and a look at a few over-under plays


7 Team, 7 Point Dog Teaser (+800)
 Kansas St. +11 vs Missouri
 Texas +18 vs Oklahoma
 Iowa +11 vs Penn. St
 Texas Tech +16.5 vs Texas A&M
 Tennessee +10 vs Georgia
 Wake Forest +17 vs Florida St
 SD. St +12.5 vs TCU

6 Team, 6 Point Favorite Teaser (+600)
 Georgia Tech -9.5 vs Maryland
 Illinois -8.5 vs Indiana
 Virginia Tech -1.5 vs Miami
 LSU -8 vs Florida
 Arkansas -4 vs Auburn
 Michigan -2 vs Northwestern

Over-Under Bets
 Kentucky/South Carolina Over 43
 Illinois/Indiana Under 54
 ASU/Utah Over 49
 LSU/Florida Under 43
 Georgia/Tenn. Under 55

College Football 12 Pack - Week 5

Absolutely dominated last week, but this week is lacking the quality match-ups and not seeing as many games to play, but here are the Top 12 games I am focusing on this week (ATS = Against the Spread):



Oklahoma -10.5 at Texas: The top rivalry game of the week with the #3 ranked Sooners heading to Texas for a showdown of undefeated teams. Oklahoma has only faced two quality opponents, both FSU and Missouri and won each game just by 10 points, and along with Texas is 3-1 ATS this year. Heisman hopeful Landry Jones has quite a connecting with Broyles, and look for the passing game to be the key to their success. Texas is looking better and better each week with McCoy settling in as the starting QB. 10 of the last 13 between these teams decided by 10 points or more. Texas has yet to face an offense ranked in the Top 65 in the Nation, and its young secondary could struggle in this one. 56.7% of the public betting on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS last 7 as 10.5 or more point favorite, while Texas is 5-1 ATS last 6 as 10.5 or greater underdog, but just 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.

The Pick: Texas +10.5 - Count on 2 Landry Jones INT's to Keep It Close (Neutral Site for Game)

Florida St. -10.5 at Wake Forest: Florida St. has dropped to #23 after losses to Oklahoma and Clemson, yet to beat a quality team this season. FSU is coming off a bye and gets QB EJ Manuel back. Wake Forest is off to its best start in a long time, but with wins against NC St. and BC, not exactly worth performances. Tanner Price is a quality QB but he's yet to see a D like the 'Noles and should struggle. FSU is 1-3 ATS this season and Wake Forest is 3-1. More than 65% of the public betting on FSU in this one, the squares. FSU is 9-19-2 ATS last 30 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite, and 1-6 ATS last 7 Conf. games. Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10, and 12-5 ATS as home underdog overall.

The Pick: Wake Forest +10.5 - "Dumb Money" All Over FSU and have a QB back from injury, on the road, and a team that has lost it's hunger with the 2 losses, and the statistics favor a cover. Also, Wake Forest is 8th in Total Yards on Defense.

Maryland +14.5 at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech as been great this year, 5-0 and ranked #13, averaging 378 yards rushing a game with its triple-option and Maryland is 90th in run defense. Georgia Tech is another team yet to me tested, and looking ahead to October 29th game with Clemson. Maryland put otu a great effort against West Virgina is a second half comeback, coming up 7 points short, but then got run over by Temple 38-7. Maryland is 1-3 ATS this season and GT is 4-0-1, and 69% of the action betting the Yellow Jackets. Maryland is 6-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, while GT 5-2 ATS last 7 at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 as home favorite.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -14.5 - The Spread is not all that friendly, one that could use a 6 point tease, but they should run wild on the Terrapins, likely put up 45 and see Maryland closer to 24.

Arizona St. -3.5 at Utah: The 4-1 Sun Devils hit the road with the 27th ranked passing attack led by Osweiler, while Utah is 2-2 (0-2 in its first year in Pac 12), and other than a big win at BYU, Utah lost by 9 to USC and 17 to Washington. ASU beat USC by 21 and Missouri by 7, and has a well rounded team. Also, Utah is without starting QB Jordan Wynn. Utah is 91st on Defense against the pass, ASU's strong point, and ASU's defense is #1 in the country on 3rd down conversion % at 24.2% while Utah's offense is 104th with a 33.3% conversion rate, a key stat. Currently 61.5% of the money siding with the Sun Devils and ASU is 1-4 ATS this season while Utah is 1-3 ATS, so something has to give. ASU is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, but 2-9 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite, while Utah is 5-1 ATS as home underdog and 28-10-1 ATS last 39 overall as underdog, but 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records last 4.

The Pick: ASU -3.5 - ASU's Passing Offense and 3rd Down Defense Make the Difference, although statistics favor Utah to cover. Hopefully ASU is not looking ahead to Oregon next week.

Miami +7.5 at Virginia Tech: Miami has been inconsistent all year with losses to K. St. and Maryland, and its key win against an over-rated Ohio St. team missing most of its stars. Miami recently lost starting DT and MLB for the season, so the Defense is banged up. Virginia Tech looks to recover after a 23-3 home loss to Clemson, a game they were favored, but I called as the lock of the week for a Clemson win. I've yet to see anything impressive out of Virginia Tech this year, and can;t understand why they are still ranked 21st. Look for V. Tech to pound the ball with D. Wilson all day long as QB Logan Thomas has been less than spectacular. Miami is 1-3 ATS this season and V. Tech is 1-4 ATS, and 63.25% of the public betting with the Hokies. Miami is 11-5 ATS last 16 as underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Hokies are 22-7 last 29 ATS after scoring less than 20 in prior game, ad 40-16 ATS in Conf. games.

The Pick: V. Tech -7.5 - Running the Ball and Defense Win this One for a Team with a History of Bouncing Back after Losses

Missouri -4 at Kansas St.: I honestly could not believe my eyes when I first saw this spread open, the home K. St Wildcats an underdog after wins at Miami and home vs. Baylor. K. St has a double threat with Klein throwing and running, and the team is stout on D. Missouri is well rested coming off a bye week, and has had a ton of success running the ball this season, and did only lose by 10 to Oklahoma. With games left again Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Baylor and Texas, Missouri is one of these teams that can steal wins. Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season and 55.4% of the public betting with K. St. Missouri matches up well, its D 16th against the run, which is K. St's best attack, while K. St is among the Top 20 in all defensive stats, and Missouri is 113th on 3rd down conversions which can prove costly. Missouri is 17-8 last 25 ATS on the road, while K. St. is 11-4 ATS last 15 Conf. games.

The Pick: K. St. +4 - My Only Concern is this One Appears Way to Easy

Florida +14 at LSU: A game that was looking to be a great match-up until Florida lost it's QB Brantley to injury, and a QB making his first start against the best Defense in the country, when Florida struggled offensively with Brantley against Alabama, has now become an easy one for LSU at home. LSU has quality wins against West Virginia and Oregon, and Florida does not have any quality wins. The one dynamic that could keep it close is that the Gator's D has looked strong as long as the offense does not turn it over, and LSU's passing attack is 100th in the country. Currently 63% of the public siding with LSU, although LSU is only 3-2 ATS this season. Gators are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games, while LSU is 8-17 ATS last 25 home games and 2-6 ATS last 8 as home favorite.

The Pick: Florida +14 - All the Money on 1 Side and LSU's Offense has Struggled, so going with the statistics ATS that say Gators should cover, although the new QB must not turn the ball over.

Georgia -2.5 at Tennessee: Georgia heads on the road at 3-2 to face the 3-1 Vols. Georgia has a 3 game winning streak after starting the season with tough losses to Boise St. and South Carolina. The Bulldogs have struggled its last two trips to Knoxville, blown out in each. Tennessee has had a lot of success throwing the ball this year, 11th in the country, but the Bulldogs are 4th against the pass. The Vols are converting an amazing 62% of 3rd downs this year, 2nd best in the country, but Georgia only allowing 25.4%, also 2nd in the country. Georgia is 3-2 ATS this season and Tenn. is 2-0-2 ATS, and 54.4% of the public favoring the Bulldogs. Georgia is 5-16 ATS last 21 against teams with winning records, and Vols are 4-1-1 last 6 ATS at home, but just 2-6-1 last 9 as underdog ATS.

The Pick: Vols +2.5 - Home Team has Dominated this Series and Teams Match-Up Well, so Take the Home Dog and the History, and Fade the Public

Texas A&M -9.5 at Texas Tech: A&M coming off two tough losses to Oklahoma St. and Arkansas, blowing big leads in each, takes to the road against the Red Raiders. A&M has the offense with Tannerhill, Fuller, Swope and Gray to win against any team, but it's Defense has been poor and no second half kill-shot attitude. Texas Tech is 4-0 averaging 47 points a game, but yet to face a quality opponent and ready with its pass-happy offense. Doege should be able to put up big numbers again this week against an A&M Defense allowing a ton of passing yards. Texas Tech struggles against the run, so A&M will have no problem scoring. A&M is 1-3 ATS this season and Texas tech is 3-1, and 53.45% of the public betting A&M here. A&M is 6-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, but 4-9 ATS last 13 road games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdog.

The Pick: Texas Tech +9.5 - A&M lacks the ability to slow them down, and should be shoot-out to the finish in a tight one.



Iowa St. +15.5 at Baylor: Baylor tries to bounce back after a tough loss to K. St. in what they were hoping to be their season to shine in the Big 12. Griffin to Wright is rivaling Weeden to Blackmon as the best duo in the country. Iowa St. is not push-over, and a team I remain bitter for the non-cover last week at home versus Texas and costing me an 8 team teaser. Baylor is 2-1 ATS this season and Iowa St. 2-2, and 69% of the money on Baylor right now. Iowa St. is 20-9 ATS last 29 as underdog of 10.5 or more and 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 10.5 or more. Baylor is 5-18 ATS last 23 versus teams with winning road records.

The Pick: Iowa St. +15.5 - Baylor may have a hangover effect and Iowa St. statistically is solid ATS, a game that looks great with a 6 point teaser.




Auburn +10 at Arkansas: Arkansas bounced back with a big win vs. Texas A&M last week in a comeback, and Tyler Wilson is looking like a great QB, although his O-Line needs to protect him better. Auburn is 4-1 and beat South Carolina last week, but may rely on Dyer and the running game with it's top 2 WR's possibly out for this one, and Arkansas' Defense is 109th against the run, also 75th against the pass. All signs point to a high scoring back and forth game, so take the over. Auburn is 2-3 ATS and Arkansas 3-2 ATS this season, and 55.77% siding with Auburn thus far in a favorable 10 point spread on the road. Auburn is 11-1 ATS last 12 Conf. games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10, while Arkansas is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home as a favorite, and 10-2 last 12 conf. games ATS.

The Pick: Auburn +10 - Injuries Could Factor, but Not a Big Separation Here Statistically, so I like the 10 Point Dog in a Rivalry game

TCU -5 at San Diego St.: TCU comes in dropping out of the top 25 and I was not impressed in there loss to SMU last week, and lack quality wins this year, a young team that has a lot of learning. SD. St had its chance to prove itself against Michigan, but failed in a 28-7 loss, although had plenty of opportunities to keep that one much closer and the Wolverines are rolling. SD. St is 9th against the pass, but 114th against the run and TCU averages 204 yards a game on the ground. The Over looks like a safe bet in this one as well. TCU is seeing 61% of the betting action, but is just 2-3 ATS this season. TCU is 20-7 last 27 after a ATS loss, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10. SD St. is 4-0 ATS at home, and 9-4 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.

The Pick: SD. St. +5 - Potential Upset Alert