UNC +10.5 at Clemson: UNC is 5-2 this season, much improved, and their two losses were by 7 and 6 points to Georgia Tech and Miami respectively. Clemson is 7-0, the 7th ranked team in the country, and struggled versus Maryland last week although Boyd was banged up. Watkins is one of the most exciting freshman WR's in a long time, and Clemson a fun team to watch putting up 38 points per game. UNC is 92nd against the pass, likely to struggle and Clemson is Top 20 in most offensive stats. UNC has Dwight Jones, one of the top WR prospects in the country, and should have some success against a Defense that struggled last week. Just over 70% of the public betting the Tigers right now, who are 6-1 ATS this season, UNC 3-4 ATS. Clemson is 6-0 ATS last 6 Conf. games, and UNC is 18-8 ATS last 26 as underdog.
The Pick: Clemson -10.5 - Death Valley a Tough Place for UNC to Play, and Clemson's Defense Should Step It Up this Week - Top 10 Teams have a Strong ATS Record this Season
Oklahoma St -7.5 at Missouri: The 4th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys bring their 49.2 points per game high powered offense to Missouri for a Big 12 match-up. OSU has plenty of holes defensively, narrowly escaping against Texas A&M and Texas gave them a fight much of last week. Missouri beat Iowa State 52-17 last week, and the prior two were on the road at Oklahoma and Kansas St., both ranked, and just 10 and 7 point losses. Franklin continues to improve at QB and Josey is an explosive RB. Oklahoma St. is suspect on Defense, 100th in the country in total yards allowed. 75% of the public is betting Oklahoma St., who are 5-1 ATS this season, while Missouri is 4-2 ATS. I've watched all the Cowboys' games and it is my favorite team, but I can see an upset in this one. Oklahoma St. is 20-4-2 last 26 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Missouri is 6-2 ATS last 8 at home.
The Pick: Missouri +7.5 - This May be the Game of the Week
Arkansas -15.5 at Mississippi: Arkansas comes off the bye week with a #9 ranking, only falling to Alabama, and coming off an impressive 24 point win versus Auburn. Ole Miss is 2-4 and one of the worst offenses in the country, losing 52-7 to Alabama last week, and also a 30-7 loss to Vanderbilt this season. The Razor Backs are 8th in the nation in passing, and Ole Miss is 56th defensively against the pass and 115th against the rush. Arkansas is seeing 73% of the bets, and are 4-2 ATS this season, Ole Miss at 2-4. Hogs are 0-4 ATS last 4 as road favorite of 10.5 or more, one scary stat, while Ole Miss is 15-3 ATS last 18 after scoring less than 20 points in the prior game, so statistics favor a potential cover here.
The Pick: Arkansas -15.5 - Hogs should be able to throw the ball all day long and pull away by at least 20 points. Houston Nutt has a tough task this week and his job security is in question.
Maryland +18 at Florida St: Maryland is a team that has impressed me this season, they screwed up one of my bets when they covered at Georgia Tech and they had Clemson's backs against the wall last week before losing it late, a team starting to click. FSU rolled over Duke last week after losing 3 straight to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake Forest. EJ Manuel is back healthy and FSU's defense is always among the elite. Both teams have a ton of injuries and Maryland is without Dorsey at WR this week, a big blow to its offense. Statistically Maryland is way over-matched in this one, and FSU a tough place to play. Both teams are 2-4 ATS this season and 56.65% of the money playing for the Terps to cover. Maryland is 7-3 ATS last 10 as a 10.5 or more underdog, while FSU is 2-7 ATS last 9 Conf. games and some rather terrible ATS stats following large margin wins from the prior week.
The Pick: FSU -18 - Seminoles are ready to start rolling the rest of the season
Texas A&M -20.5 at Iowa State: A&M a 21 point favorite on the road, and recently beating Texas Tech and Baylor. A&M has holes defensively, but could very well be 6-0 if it did not blow big leads against Oklahoma St and Arkansas. A&M has weapons at every position offensively, and Iowa St. was ripped for 52 points last week in Missouri, so A&M will have no problem hanging another 50-burger on the Cyclones. Iowa St. is not all that bad, just a tough schedule and over-matched, but the 20.5 point spread is alluring. Iowa St is ranked 110th against the run, but A&M is 120th against the pass. A&M is seeing 69% of the action as a heavy favorite,a nd both teams 2-4 ATS this season. Aggies are 4-10 ATS last 14 road games, and 4-12 ATS last 16 after a win by 20 or more. Cyclones are 0-5 ATS last 5 Conf. games.
The Pick: A&M -20.5 - Cyclones having QB issues and turnovers, Aggies will roll
USC +9 at Notre Dame: USC is quietly having a strong season at 5-1, although lacking any quality wins, and 1-1 on the road. This once great rivalry game has lost some of its luster as both teams have fell to mediocrity. USC is the 19th ranked passing team and Notre Dame is 67 against the pass. Notre Dame is still shaky at QB, so USC a big advantage in that area. USC is 19th against the run and should force Notre Dame to throw, it's weak point. Notre Dame has won 4 in a row, one impressive win vs. Michigan St. USC is seeing 55.55% of the action and both teams 3-3 ATS this season. The last 2 between these 2 decided by an average of 5.5 points. USC is 10-3 last 13 ATS as road underdog, but just 3-12 ATS last 15 after ATS win. Notre Dame is 10-3 ATS last 13 after a bye week, but just 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: USC +9 - There is not a big discrepancy with these two, so it should be a close one, and defensively favors USC.
Texas Tech +29 at Oklahoma: Oklahoma has proven they are a dominant team, led by Landry Jones and with Broyles, Whaley, Stills and others, and also one of the toughest defenses in the country. Texas Tech spreads it out and puts up points, but clearly over-matched here, losing to A&M and Kansas St., and without Stephens at RB, gone for the season with injury. Texas Tech is 111th against the run, but is 21st against the pass. Texas Tech is seeing 54.6% of the action as a cover, and both teams are 4-2 ATS this season. Texas Tech is 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdog, but 44-18-1 last 63 ATS after a loss. The Sooners 7-2 ATS last 9 as 10.5 or more point favorite.
The Pick: Oklahoma -29 - Sooners will run up the score trying to impress the pollsters
Wisconsin -7 at Michigan State: Michigan St. has one slip-up this season against Notre Dame, but otherwise impressive, specifically on defense, although Gholston suspended for this game. Wisconsin is 6-0, ranked 6th in the country and has had an easy schedule so far, but did beat Nebraska 48-17. Wisconsin has one of the best QB-RB-WR combos with Wilson, Ball and Toon, but the Spartans play aggressive defense and will have home field advantage. Wisconsin is ranked in the Top 5 for most offensive categories and is also 4th defensively against the pass. Wisconsin is seeing 66% of the betting action, and is 5-0-1 ATS this season, while Spartans are 4-2. The last 4 have been decided by an average of just 5.5 points with these two teams. Michigan St. is 1-7 last 8 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.
The Pick: Wisconsin -7 - Badgers Take Advantage of this One to Impress the Polls - Spartans Tough Defense, but coming off an emotional win could suffer a let-down against well rested Badger team
Illinois -3.5 at Purdue: Illinois lost it's first game of the year at home against Ohio St, unable to do anything offensively and beating a very suspect team that is ranked #23. Scheelhaase to Jenkins is a great combo, but yet to face much competition. Purdue is coming off a 5 point road loss to Penn State and lost by 28 to Notre Dame earlier this season. Illinois' defense ranks Top 25 in all categories and also 20th offensively rushing the ball. Illinois is receiving 69% of the public money, and is just 3-4 ATS this season, Purdue 3-3. Illinois is 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road, but 7-20 ATS last 27 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Purdue is 5-2 ATS last 7 as home underdog.
The Pick: Illinois -3.5 - Taking the Road Favorite - Illinois Gets a Mulligan and Proves they are much better than they looked last week
Georgia Tech +3 at Miami: Georgia Tech lost its bid for a perfect season last week and has been looking weaker and weaker each week, really losing momentum as teams catch on to the Triple-Option where the QB seems to keep the ball way too often. The task this week is trying to win in Miami, a team coming off a close win at UNC and almost pulled an upset at Virginia Tech. Miami is 94th against the run, a match-up problem, but plenty of athleticism defensively to defend the Yellow Jackets option offense. Georgia Tech is seeing 55.7% of the action this week, and are 4-2-1 ATS this season, while Miami is 3-3. Yellow Jackets are 16-7-1 last 24 as road underdog, while Miami is just 4-14 ATS last 18 at home vs teams with a winning road record.
The Pick: Miami -3 - Yellow Jackets are one dimensional and have not looked impressive, and this is a tough road game, advantage to the Hurricanes
Bonus Picks:
Indiana +24 at Iowa
Kansas St. -11 at Kansas
Virginia Tech -21 vs Boston College
Nevada -11 vs Fresno St
UTEP -9.5 at Colorado St
Teaser Cheat Sheet
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