College 12 Pack - Week 7

A great week of football ahead and 12 match-ups I am focusing on are:

Baylor +9 at Texas A&M: Baylor is 4-1 and comes in to A&M for a #20 vs #21 match-up. Baylor bounced back last week following its first loss of the season, while A&M held on to beat Texas Tech, avoiding its 3rd straight second half choke. A&M has the talent of a Top 10 team with Tannerhill at QB, Fuller at WR and Gray at RB. RG3 is turning heads at Baylor and can do everything, while Top WR Wright is a big time play maker, although did look injured at the end of last week's game and I am not able to get an update. Baylor is 3-1 ATS this season and A&M is 1-4, likely the reason 65.7% of the public is betting Baylor. Although a shoot-out is expected with two suspect defenses, Texas A&M may burn some clock with the run-game ranked 17th in the Nation against Baylor's 82nd ranked run defense. Baylor will have to throw the ball to win and A&M does pressure the QB, and Griffin is taking way too many hits this season. Baylor is 2-6 ATS last 8 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while A&M is 6-13 ATS last 19 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Baylor +9 - Betting with the Squares - A&M Can Not Put Teams Away and Baylor has Plenty of Offense to Keep this Close

Michigan +2 at Michigan State: The battle of Michigan is one of the better match-ups between these two teams in years, and the 6-0 Wolverines try to stay undefeated against a quality Spartans team. Michigan has yet to really be tested, a fairly easy schedule and relies on Denard Robinson for most of it's offense. Michigan St. does not have a very impressive schedule thus far either, and lost 31-13 to a Notre Dame team that the Wolverines beat. Cousins to Cunningham is solid on offense, and they are only allowing 10 points a game, one of the top defenses in the country with the 2nd ranked passing defense and 3rd ranked rushing defense. Michigan is 5-1 ATS this year and Michigan St. is 3-2 ATS, and 55.6% of the public betting on the road underdog, although Michigan St. has won the past 3 meetings. Michigan is 7-20 ATS versus teams with winning records, and 5-23 ATS the last 28 conference games. The Spartans are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Michigan State -2 - Defense and Coming Off a Bye Week with 2 Weeks to Prepare, and Throw in Home Field Advantage and I see a Senior Sweep of the Wolverines.



South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State: The 15th ranked Gamecocks head to Miss. St after a 54-3 win against Kentucky with a new QB at the helm, Garcia officially back in the dog house. South Carolina is very over-rated, having lost its only game against a quality team, that being Auburn who is not even ranked. South Carolina does have the best RB in the Nation with Lattimore and Jeffery at WR, so plenty of weapons. Miss. St has been very disappointing, starting the season ranked, but now 3-3, losses versus Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Relf and Ballard are good players, but have struggled. South Carolina is 3rd against the pass, but 60th against the run, and Miss St. is 21st against the pass. South Carolina is 3-3 ATS this year and Miss. St is 1-5, and 72.3% of the public betting on the road favorite Gamecocks. South Carolina is 4-0 ATS last 4 road games, while Miss. St. is 12-5-1 last 18 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog. South Carolina gets a boost with star D-End Melvin Ingram returning from a foot injury.

The Pick: South Carolina - 3 - The team will rally after dismissing Senior QB Garcia from the team and Miss. St's O-Line has been terrible, and will struggle.

Florida State -14 at Duke: FSU has lost 3 in a row against Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest, quality teams, and now on the road against a surprisingly good Blue Devil's team. FSU has no rushing attack, but Duke is 103rd against the pass. Florida State's defense ranks in the top 25 against the run and pass. Duke has won 3 in a row, but against weak opponents. FSU recently lost its RB and O-Tackle to season ending injuries, a team in a tough situation that is one of the worst in the country with turnover differential. FSU is 1-4 ATS this year and Duke is 3-2 ATS, and 68.9% of the action betting the Seminoles. FSU is 5-11 ATS last 16 as a 10.5 or more favorite, and 1-7 ATS last 8 conference games. Duke is 8-21 ATS last 29 as a home underdog, but 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in October.

The Pick: Duke +14 - Duke is at home with the best chance it may ever get to do the unthinkable, beat FSU in football. Duke will be able to put up some points, and with a few turnovers can actually see this one as a major UPSET.

Georgia Tech -7.5 at Virginia: The Yellow Jackets are off to a 6-0 start and continue to put up big offensive numbers, although its Triple-Option offense has looked a bit shaky the last two weeks and the defense has allowed lesser teams to cover late in games. Teva Washington is a dual threat QB but needs to read the pitch more often, and has been taking way too many hits. Virginia is 3-2, and its best opponent was UNC, just an 11 point loss on the road. Virginia's Defense actually ranks 35th against the run and 26th against the pass, and also Top 40 in most offensive stats, so the numbers make Virginia out to be a better team than the results have shown. Georgia Tech is 4-1-1 ATS and Virginia is 1-4, and a heavy bias with 81.57% of the public leaning on Georgia Tech. Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 last as road favorite, while Virginia is 2-8 last 10 conference games ATS, but 11-5 ATS last 16 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -7.5 - I was going to go with the home underdog, but I can't see them keeping up with GT to keep it close, although the way the Yellow Jackets burn the clock with long drives always makes them a tough cover.

LSU -17.5 at Tennessee: LSU heads to Tennessee and has been rolling over every team this season, and I see no reason a Vols team with Bray injured at QB and Simms in, has a chance to keep this close. Tennessee has kept games close this year, but a big discrepancy in talent in this one. LSU is 4-2 ATS and Vols are 2-1-2 and 72.26% of the action betting LSU this week. One interesting stat is that LSU is 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road favorite of 10.5 or more, and Vols are 9-4 ATS last 13 as a 10.5 or greater underdog, so the stats point to a potential underdog to cover.

The Pick: LSU -17.5 - Hate Betting with Such a Public Bias, but this game should be a Lay-Up for LSU, hopefully not looking ahead to the showdown with Alabama in 2 weeks.

Ohio State +3.5 at Illinois: Illinois has been one of the surprised this season, off to a 6-0 start and ranked #15, and QB Scheelhaase is one of the most under-rated stars in college football. The issue is that the Illini have been winning games by small margins against sub-par teams. Ohio St. lost by 3 to Mich. St. and blew a big lead to lose by 7 against Nebraska. Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season and 57.8% of the money betting with Illinois. Ohio St.'s Defense is ranked 22nd against the pass and 36th against the rush, also stellar on 3rd downs. Ohio St. is 21-7 ATS last 28 after a loss, while Illinois is 10-4 ATS last 14 conference games.

The Pick: Ohio St. +3.5 - As bad as Ohio St. has been this year, there is a strong defense in place and if they stick to running the ball they can keep it close against a team that has a trend of tight games.



Oklahoma State -7 at Texas: Oklahoma St. has to be excited heading to Texas if it watched film of last week's game when Landry Jones torched the inexperienced Longhorns secondary, and OK. St has the highest scoring team in the nation. Texas looked terrible on offense as well last week, and although the Cowboys Defense is not up to par with the Sooners, Texas is in for a long day. OK. St. is somewhat unproven, it's only test was A&M and that was a 1 point win. Texas is still 4-1 and ranked #22, but ran into a buzz saw last week. The Cowboys are 103rd against the pass and 75th against the rush, so Texas should have no problem scoring this week. Texas is 3-2 ATS and OK. St. is 4-1, and 76% of the money betting on OK. St. this week to cover. The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS last 16, while Texas is 1-6 ATS last 7 conference games and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 versus winning teams.

The Pick: Oklahoma St. -7 - Too Much Offense and Texas Will Not Keep Pace

Clemson -8 at Maryland: The Taj Boyd and Sammy Watkins show head to Maryland at 6-0 and ranked 8th in the Nation, beating good teams along the way. Maryland hung in last week to cover against Georgia Tech and looked like a completely different team in the second half. Maryland has kept games close against its two best opponents, West Virginia and G-Tech. Maryland is 98th in the country against the rush, and it's offense is not in the Top 50 in any category. Clemson is 5-1 ATS and Maryland is 2-3, and 75.6% of the public siding with the Tigers. Clemson's Taj Boyd at QB does have a hip injury, but expected to be ready for the game. Clemson is 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games, while Maryland is 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Maryland is in the middle of a QB controversy and will be missing its leading tackler for the game.

The Pick: Clemson -8 (Only if Taj Boyd Starts)

Florida -2 at Auburn: Florida has been blown out by LSU and Alabama in back-to-back weeks, arguably the best 2 teams in the country, and lacks any quality wins this season, and now on the road to face off with Auburn, a team that has climbed back into the Top 25, but lost against Clemson and Arkansas by an average of 19 points, its top 2 opponents this season. Auburn is 104th in the Nation on Defense, while Florida is 11th on defense. Florida is 3-2-1 ATS and Auburn is 2-4 ATS, currently 58.4% of the action betting on Auburn. The Gators are 14-3 ATS last 17 as road favorite, while Auburn is 2-9 ATS last 11 after a loss.

The Pick: Florida -2 - Gators Speed will Make the Difference and Allow them to Get Back on Track

Kansas State +3.5 at Texas Tech: Kansas St. has been one of my betting darlings this season and once again I feel this spread is off. K-St. is ranked #17 and plays great defense, quality wins against Baylor, Missouri and Miami the last 3 weeks. Texas Tech made the game close against A&M, but did not look too impressive, and will be relying on the passing game. The Wildcats are 17th on overall yards allowed defensively, and Texas Tech is 115th against the run, while K-St. is averaging 205 yards a game rushing. Both teams are 4-1 ATS this season, but Texas Tech seeing 57% of the bets. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 as road underdog, while Red Raiders are 15-6 ATS last 21 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Pick: Kansas St. +3.5 and Potential Upset Win - Defense and Running the Ball will Keep the Ball out of Texas Tech's Spread Offense Led by Seth Doege

Arizona State +14 at Oregon: This could have been a tricky one for the Ducks if it was at Arizona St. but the home-field advantage will play a big role, the team hurting without star RB LaMichael James. Oregon took exception to the LSU loss and has been rolling ever since, although it plays in the Pac 12 with a cake schedule. ASU is a lot better than people think and at 5-1 ranked #18 with just a loss of 3 points to Illinois this season, and already have beaten two ranked teams in USC and Missouri. ASU's big QB Osweiler can toss it around and keep the Sun Devils alive in this one for awhile. Oregon is 3-2 ATS this season and ASU is 2-4, and 58.57% of the public with the Ducks in this one. ASU is 8-2 ATS last 10 as 10.5 point or more underdog, while Oregon is 19-6-1 last 26 as 10.5 point or more favorite.

The Pick: Arizona St. +14 - Ducks win, but face first real threat of season in what should be a great game

Bonus Games without the In Depth Analysis:

SMU -3.5 vs Central Florida

BYU +3 vs. Oregon St.

Vanderbilt +11.5 vs Georgia

Northwestern +6 vs Iowa

Purdue +11.5 vs Penn St.