Michigan St. +4 at Nebraska: Michigan St is coming off a huge win at home against Wisconsin, and will travel to Nebraska for a Big 10 showdown, starting a new rivalry. Michigan St. plays defense as good as any team in the country, and the Offense is starting to click as well, a dangerous team. Nebraska is also 6-1, and was blown out by a Wisconsin team that the Spartans beat last week. Nebraska is 70th against the run and Taylor Martinez will struggle against a fast Spartans defense ranked 2nd in the country in total yards allowed. Michigan St. is 5-2 ATS this season and Nebraska is 2-5 ATS, and Spartans seeing 52.65% of the betting action. This line opened at 6 points, so moving in favor of Michigan St, and Spartans are just 2-7 last 9 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, while Cornhuskers are just 8-20-1 last 29 ATS as home favorites.
The Pick: Michigan St +4 - Stick with the Hot Team and I Would take Spartans Money Line
Purdue +14 at Michigan: Purdue is 4-3 and has played in a lot of close games this season, beating 23rd ranked Illinois last weekend in an upset. The Wolverines had a bye week to let the loss to Michigan St. sink in, and expect them to be ready to play at home Saturday. Michigan is ranked 18th, but really lacks quality wins. Purdue runs for 195 yards a game and Michigan is 54th against the run, while Michigan has a similar favorable match-up on offense. Michigan is 5-2 ATS and Purdue is 4-3, and 69.7% of the action betting the Wolverines. Purdue is 8-2 ATS last 10 as road underdog of 10.5 or more, while Michigan is just 4-22 ATS last 26 in Conference games.
The Pick: Purdue +14 - Purdue has a big Special Teams Edge that should keep this close via field position
Missouri +10 at Texas A&M: Missouri has lost 3 of its last 4 due to a brutal schedule, losing to Oklahoma, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St., and now having to head to Texas A&M against a hot team. A&M is as good as any team in the country and could be 7-0 right now, led by Tannerhill. Missouri ranks 39th passing and A&M is 120th against the pass, while Missouri is 86th against the pass and A&M is 19th passing and 14th rushing, a dynamic offense. The public is betting heavy on A&M at 63.57%, although A&M is just 2-5 ATS this season and Missouri is 4-3. The Tigers are 9-14 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point road underdog, while Aggies are 5-2 ATS last 7 home games.
The Pick: A&M -10 - Aggies have too many weapons and although Missouri will put up some points I do not see them keeping it close
Virginia Tech -15 at Duke: Virginia Tech stands 7-1 and have looked good the past 3 weeks against Miami, Wake Forest and BC. Duke relies heavily on its passing game and lost a close one to Wake Forest last week. Duke is 100th against the pass and will be over-matched talent-wise in this one, Virginia Tech's defense top 10 in the country. 73.3% of the public betting with the Hokies who are just 2-6 ATS this season. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a 10.5 point or greater favorite, while Duke is just 3-12 ATS last 15 as home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -15 - Hokies know they need to run the table, and will be too much for the Blue Devils in this one.
Wake Forest +7 at UNC: This one should be a good battle, Wake Forest winning 5 of its last 6, including a win versus FSU. UNC is a good team as well, losing its last two to Miami and Clemson, although its wins have come at a close margin against some bad teams. Wake Forest should have success throwing the ball and matches up well defensively also. UNC is seeing 52.35% of the action, and is 3-5 ATS this season. The Deamon Deacons 3-10 ATS last 13 as road underdog, while UNC is 4-1 ATS last 5 as 3.5 to 10 point home favorite.
The Pick: Wake Forest +7 - These two match-up closely so I will take the underdog
Georgia -3 at Florida: Georgia has won 5 in a row, although against lower quality teams, but starting to find its groove and has to head to Florida against a beaten up Gators team, but the game being played in Jacksonville. Florida has lost 3 in a row, but to Alabama, LSU, and Auburn, and gets Brantley back at QB. Gators defense is 6th against the pass and 34th against the run, while Georgia is 9th against the pass and 20th against the run. Georgia has the better offensive rankings. Georgia is seeing 68.2% of the bets and are 4-3 ATS this season. Florida is 2-8-1 TS last 11 against winning record teams, and Georgia is 4-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite.
The Pick: Georgia -3 - Taking the Hotter Team, and Brantley is Sure to be Rusty, while Georgia gets Ogletree back at LB
Oklahoma -14 at Kansas St: Oklahoma is coming off a shocker of a loss to Texas Tech, and Kansas St. at 7-0 is still a 14 point underdog at home, a team that has not gotten any respect all year long and is 6-1 ATS. If K-St. can win this one they have a showdown with Oklahoma St, who may also be undefeated depending on its big game with Baylor. Oklahoma is the 4th best passing team and Wildcats are 87th against the pass, one issue in this one for the Wildcats, and K-St. on offense leans on its running game and the Sooners are 28th against the run. Oklahoma's stats look better than they should though as the meat of their schedule has yet to come. Kansas St. is seeing 60% of the betting action. Oklahoma is 19-7 ATS last 26 after a loss, while K-St. has gone 6-0 ATS last 6 overall.
The Pick: K-St. +14 - Wildcats have won for me each of the last 6 weeks was shocked to see a 14 point spread. Sooners will be mad, but K-St. will compete.
Baylor +14.5 at Oklahoma St: They may need to make room for extra sports on the scoreboard because we could see 100 points in this one. Baylor has fallen back and A&M hung a 55-28 score on them last week. Oklahoma St. is now 3rd in the Nation, but has kept games close due to a lack of defense. The public is heavy on the favorite with 68.4%, and the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS this season, Baylor just 3-2. Cowboys are 19-7 ATS last 26 as home favorite of 10.5 or greater, but Baylor is 8-2 ATS last 10 as underdog of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Baylor +14.5 - Top 10 Teams have Been Dominant ATS this Season, but I think Baylor Puts Together a Great Performance as we See a Game Come Down to the Wire
Clemson -3.5 at Georgia Tech: The 8-0 Clemson Tigers are turning into a must watch team every week, exciting with Boyd and Watkins. They have started slow some games, but seem to have the ability to score at will. The Yellow Jackets are falling apart, teams catching on to its option offense, and have lost 2 in a row to unranked teams. Georgia Tech is 8th against the pass, and is 5th on offense rushing, while Clemson is 75th against the run, so some of the match-ups favor the Yellow Jackets. Clemson is seeing 71.7% of public bets, but the line has moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Clemson is 7-0 ATS last 7 Conf. games, while Yellow Jackets are 3-7 ATS last 10 as home underdog.
The Pick: Clemson -3.5 - Tigers are on a roll, and GT on the decline
Wisconsin -7.5 at Ohio St: Wisconsin coming off a last second loss and was exposed a bit, some seeing them as National Title contenders although they were winning with a cupcake schedule. Ohio St. plays strong Defense and held Michigan St. to just 10 points, something Wisconsin could not do, and the Buckeyes are playing a lot better the last few weeks. Ohio St. is going to have zero success throwing the ball, and will need to grind this one out, hopefully using the bye week to get the passing game going. Wisconsin is seeing 75% of the bets right now, a team 5-1-1 ATS this season. Ohio St is 17-4 ATS last 21 at home.
The Pick: Ohio St +7.5 - Big Advantage coming off a bye week while Badgers are feeling the pain of defeat
Stanford -7.5 at USC: Andrew Luck and Stanford set for their first real test of the season, although they did blow out what looked to be a strong Huskies team 65-21 last week. USC is 6-1 and with the probation is really looking forward to at least trying to play spoiler for a Stanford team that is in the hunt for a National Title. Barley to Woods should have some success with Stanford's top Safety out for the game. However, USC is 102nd against the pass, not a good match-up against Andrew Luck, who will be looking to showcase his talent to the NFL scouts and Heisman voters. Standford is seeing 70.4% of the bets and is 7-0 ATS this season. Cardinals are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on the road, while USC is 4-12 ATS last 16 after an ATS win.
The Pick: Stanford -7.5 - I expect Standford to start running up scores to get in the Title picture, and USC will be unable to stop them
Southern Miss -10 at UTEP: The Southern Miss. Golden Eagles are 6-1 and putting up 37 points a game and just allowing 19, including a quality win against UVA and sneaks into some Top 25 polls. UTEP has been a fun team to watch, plenty of talent, it's best game a 7 point loss to Houston and plays noticeably better at home. Southern Miss is seeing 63.25% of the betting action, although UTEP is 6-1 ATS this season, under-rated team. Southern Miss is 18-8 last 26 ATS on the road as a favorite, while UTEP is 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdog of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: UTEP +10 - Rooting for this Underdog, Fun Team to Watch and Plays Strong at Home
5 Bonus Picks:
Penn St. -5 vs Illinois - Illinois lost 2 straight and although PSU generally in close games, should win by a score.
Ole Miss +13 at Auburn - Auburn is not that good, and Ole Miss playing better, and should keep it tight
Tennessee +4 vs South Carolina - Gamecocks are falling apart and on the road without star RB Lattimore, look for a hungry Vols team to win outright int he upset
Arizona +4.5 at Washington - Arizona has plenty of talent and showed that against Oregon, USC and UCLA recently. Washington looked to have something going but got stomped by Stanford last week. I think he Wildcats are the better team.
Oregon St. +5 at Utah - Beavers are much better than 2-5 record indicates, and Utah is not looking strong vs. Pac 12 teams.
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