Oklahoma -10.5 at Texas: The top rivalry game of the week with the #3 ranked Sooners heading to Texas for a showdown of undefeated teams. Oklahoma has only faced two quality opponents, both FSU and Missouri and won each game just by 10 points, and along with Texas is 3-1 ATS this year. Heisman hopeful Landry Jones has quite a connecting with Broyles, and look for the passing game to be the key to their success. Texas is looking better and better each week with McCoy settling in as the starting QB. 10 of the last 13 between these teams decided by 10 points or more. Texas has yet to face an offense ranked in the Top 65 in the Nation, and its young secondary could struggle in this one. 56.7% of the public betting on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS last 7 as 10.5 or more point favorite, while Texas is 5-1 ATS last 6 as 10.5 or greater underdog, but just 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.
The Pick: Texas +10.5 - Count on 2 Landry Jones INT's to Keep It Close (Neutral Site for Game)
Florida St. -10.5 at Wake Forest: Florida St. has dropped to #23 after losses to Oklahoma and Clemson, yet to beat a quality team this season. FSU is coming off a bye and gets QB EJ Manuel back. Wake Forest is off to its best start in a long time, but with wins against NC St. and BC, not exactly worth performances. Tanner Price is a quality QB but he's yet to see a D like the 'Noles and should struggle. FSU is 1-3 ATS this season and Wake Forest is 3-1. More than 65% of the public betting on FSU in this one, the squares. FSU is 9-19-2 ATS last 30 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite, and 1-6 ATS last 7 Conf. games. Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10, and 12-5 ATS as home underdog overall.
The Pick: Wake Forest +10.5 - "Dumb Money" All Over FSU and have a QB back from injury, on the road, and a team that has lost it's hunger with the 2 losses, and the statistics favor a cover. Also, Wake Forest is 8th in Total Yards on Defense.
Maryland +14.5 at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech as been great this year, 5-0 and ranked #13, averaging 378 yards rushing a game with its triple-option and Maryland is 90th in run defense. Georgia Tech is another team yet to me tested, and looking ahead to October 29th game with Clemson. Maryland put otu a great effort against West Virgina is a second half comeback, coming up 7 points short, but then got run over by Temple 38-7. Maryland is 1-3 ATS this season and GT is 4-0-1, and 69% of the action betting the Yellow Jackets. Maryland is 6-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, while GT 5-2 ATS last 7 at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 as home favorite.
The Pick: Georgia Tech -14.5 - The Spread is not all that friendly, one that could use a 6 point tease, but they should run wild on the Terrapins, likely put up 45 and see Maryland closer to 24.
Arizona St. -3.5 at Utah: The 4-1 Sun Devils hit the road with the 27th ranked passing attack led by Osweiler, while Utah is 2-2 (0-2 in its first year in Pac 12), and other than a big win at BYU, Utah lost by 9 to USC and 17 to Washington. ASU beat USC by 21 and Missouri by 7, and has a well rounded team. Also, Utah is without starting QB Jordan Wynn. Utah is 91st on Defense against the pass, ASU's strong point, and ASU's defense is #1 in the country on 3rd down conversion % at 24.2% while Utah's offense is 104th with a 33.3% conversion rate, a key stat. Currently 61.5% of the money siding with the Sun Devils and ASU is 1-4 ATS this season while Utah is 1-3 ATS, so something has to give. ASU is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, but 2-9 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite, while Utah is 5-1 ATS as home underdog and 28-10-1 ATS last 39 overall as underdog, but 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records last 4.
The Pick: ASU -3.5 - ASU's Passing Offense and 3rd Down Defense Make the Difference, although statistics favor Utah to cover. Hopefully ASU is not looking ahead to Oregon next week.
Miami +7.5 at Virginia Tech: Miami has been inconsistent all year with losses to K. St. and Maryland, and its key win against an over-rated Ohio St. team missing most of its stars. Miami recently lost starting DT and MLB for the season, so the Defense is banged up. Virginia Tech looks to recover after a 23-3 home loss to Clemson, a game they were favored, but I called as the lock of the week for a Clemson win. I've yet to see anything impressive out of Virginia Tech this year, and can;t understand why they are still ranked 21st. Look for V. Tech to pound the ball with D. Wilson all day long as QB Logan Thomas has been less than spectacular. Miami is 1-3 ATS this season and V. Tech is 1-4 ATS, and 63.25% of the public betting with the Hokies. Miami is 11-5 ATS last 16 as underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Hokies are 22-7 last 29 ATS after scoring less than 20 in prior game, ad 40-16 ATS in Conf. games.
The Pick: V. Tech -7.5 - Running the Ball and Defense Win this One for a Team with a History of Bouncing Back after Losses
Missouri -4 at Kansas St.: I honestly could not believe my eyes when I first saw this spread open, the home K. St Wildcats an underdog after wins at Miami and home vs. Baylor. K. St has a double threat with Klein throwing and running, and the team is stout on D. Missouri is well rested coming off a bye week, and has had a ton of success running the ball this season, and did only lose by 10 to Oklahoma. With games left again Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Baylor and Texas, Missouri is one of these teams that can steal wins. Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season and 55.4% of the public betting with K. St. Missouri matches up well, its D 16th against the run, which is K. St's best attack, while K. St is among the Top 20 in all defensive stats, and Missouri is 113th on 3rd down conversions which can prove costly. Missouri is 17-8 last 25 ATS on the road, while K. St. is 11-4 ATS last 15 Conf. games.
The Pick: K. St. +4 - My Only Concern is this One Appears Way to Easy
Florida +14 at LSU: A game that was looking to be a great match-up until Florida lost it's QB Brantley to injury, and a QB making his first start against the best Defense in the country, when Florida struggled offensively with Brantley against Alabama, has now become an easy one for LSU at home. LSU has quality wins against West Virginia and Oregon, and Florida does not have any quality wins. The one dynamic that could keep it close is that the Gator's D has looked strong as long as the offense does not turn it over, and LSU's passing attack is 100th in the country. Currently 63% of the public siding with LSU, although LSU is only 3-2 ATS this season. Gators are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games, while LSU is 8-17 ATS last 25 home games and 2-6 ATS last 8 as home favorite.
The Pick: Florida +14 - All the Money on 1 Side and LSU's Offense has Struggled, so going with the statistics ATS that say Gators should cover, although the new QB must not turn the ball over.
Georgia -2.5 at Tennessee: Georgia heads on the road at 3-2 to face the 3-1 Vols. Georgia has a 3 game winning streak after starting the season with tough losses to Boise St. and South Carolina. The Bulldogs have struggled its last two trips to Knoxville, blown out in each. Tennessee has had a lot of success throwing the ball this year, 11th in the country, but the Bulldogs are 4th against the pass. The Vols are converting an amazing 62% of 3rd downs this year, 2nd best in the country, but Georgia only allowing 25.4%, also 2nd in the country. Georgia is 3-2 ATS this season and Tenn. is 2-0-2 ATS, and 54.4% of the public favoring the Bulldogs. Georgia is 5-16 ATS last 21 against teams with winning records, and Vols are 4-1-1 last 6 ATS at home, but just 2-6-1 last 9 as underdog ATS.
The Pick: Vols +2.5 - Home Team has Dominated this Series and Teams Match-Up Well, so Take the Home Dog and the History, and Fade the Public
Texas A&M -9.5 at Texas Tech: A&M coming off two tough losses to Oklahoma St. and Arkansas, blowing big leads in each, takes to the road against the Red Raiders. A&M has the offense with Tannerhill, Fuller, Swope and Gray to win against any team, but it's Defense has been poor and no second half kill-shot attitude. Texas Tech is 4-0 averaging 47 points a game, but yet to face a quality opponent and ready with its pass-happy offense. Doege should be able to put up big numbers again this week against an A&M Defense allowing a ton of passing yards. Texas Tech struggles against the run, so A&M will have no problem scoring. A&M is 1-3 ATS this season and Texas tech is 3-1, and 53.45% of the public betting A&M here. A&M is 6-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games, but 4-9 ATS last 13 road games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdog.
The Pick: Texas Tech +9.5 - A&M lacks the ability to slow them down, and should be shoot-out to the finish in a tight one.
Iowa St. +15.5 at Baylor: Baylor tries to bounce back after a tough loss to K. St. in what they were hoping to be their season to shine in the Big 12. Griffin to Wright is rivaling Weeden to Blackmon as the best duo in the country. Iowa St. is not push-over, and a team I remain bitter for the non-cover last week at home versus Texas and costing me an 8 team teaser. Baylor is 2-1 ATS this season and Iowa St. 2-2, and 69% of the money on Baylor right now. Iowa St. is 20-9 ATS last 29 as underdog of 10.5 or more and 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 10.5 or more. Baylor is 5-18 ATS last 23 versus teams with winning road records.
The Pick: Iowa St. +15.5 - Baylor may have a hangover effect and Iowa St. statistically is solid ATS, a game that looks great with a 6 point teaser.
Auburn +10 at Arkansas: Arkansas bounced back with a big win vs. Texas A&M last week in a comeback, and Tyler Wilson is looking like a great QB, although his O-Line needs to protect him better. Auburn is 4-1 and beat South Carolina last week, but may rely on Dyer and the running game with it's top 2 WR's possibly out for this one, and Arkansas' Defense is 109th against the run, also 75th against the pass. All signs point to a high scoring back and forth game, so take the over. Auburn is 2-3 ATS and Arkansas 3-2 ATS this season, and 55.77% siding with Auburn thus far in a favorable 10 point spread on the road. Auburn is 11-1 ATS last 12 Conf. games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10, while Arkansas is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home as a favorite, and 10-2 last 12 conf. games ATS.
The Pick: Auburn +10 - Injuries Could Factor, but Not a Big Separation Here Statistically, so I like the 10 Point Dog in a Rivalry game
TCU -5 at San Diego St.: TCU comes in dropping out of the top 25 and I was not impressed in there loss to SMU last week, and lack quality wins this year, a young team that has a lot of learning. SD. St had its chance to prove itself against Michigan, but failed in a 28-7 loss, although had plenty of opportunities to keep that one much closer and the Wolverines are rolling. SD. St is 9th against the pass, but 114th against the run and TCU averages 204 yards a game on the ground. The Over looks like a safe bet in this one as well. TCU is seeing 61% of the betting action, but is just 2-3 ATS this season. TCU is 20-7 last 27 after a ATS loss, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10. SD St. is 4-0 ATS at home, and 9-4 ATS last 13 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog.
The Pick: SD. St. +5 - Potential Upset Alert
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