NFL Week 5 Match-Ups

We are a quarter through the season, so now each team has started to show their true colors, making for, hopefully, easier analysis of the match-ups. We have a few teams on bye weeks, so less flexibility in the Parlays/Teasers. As for this week's games (ATS = Against the Spread). I am picking a lot of underdogs to cover this week, feel a week of close low scoring games coming as we enter October.

Kansas City +3 at Indianapolis Colts: The 1-3 Chiefs on the road against the 0-4 Colts, although Indy has been in 3 straight close games and Painter looked to be in the zone last week. The Chiefs coming off a 5 point win against the Vikings and lost only by 3 versus the Chargers, starting to overcome some early season injuries. The Colts are near the bottom of the league in all offensive categories, while the Chiefs are near the bottom defensively. The Chiefs have a good pass rush and the Colts )-Line is shuffling due to injuries, potentially could be the difference. Both teams are 2-2 ATS this season, and 70.5% of the public betting with the Colts. Chiefs are 9-4 ATS last 13 as underdog, but 2-8 ATS last 10 versus the AFC. Colts are 0-3-1 last 4 ATS at home as 0.5 to 3 point underdog.

The Pick: Chiefs +3 - The Pass Rush a Difference Maker for KC and a FG Battle

Arizona +3 at Minnesota: The Vikings are 0-4 and in dire need of a QB change, but Peterson should have success against the Cards, and Minnestoa lost 4 games by an average of 5 points per game. Arizona has lost 3 in a row losing by 1, 3, and 4 points, so this has all the makings of a close one. The Vikings are 28th against the pass and Arizona throws the ball fairly well. 53.4% of the action siding with the Vikings. Cards are 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdogs, while Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 as home favorite, but 2-8-1 last 11 ATS against the NFC.

The Pick: Arizona +3 - Cards will find success in the air, and only need to shut down Peterson to win this one, and likely will win this money line.

Philadelphia -3 at Buffalo: The struggling Eagles on the road to face the Bills, who are 3-1 and seeing no respect from Vegas with this line. The Bills are always involved in close games, and Philly could struggle defensively as they allow 6 yards a carry, so Fred Jackson should be on for a big day. The Bills defense will be the key to this game, trying to slow down an Eagles offense that has yet to click. The Eagles D should be fired up after Frank Gore's comments, basically saying they are weak and quit. The Eagles are ranked 2nd in rushing and 9th in passing, while the Bill's D is 25th. 55.9% of the action is on the Eagles thus far, though the Eagles are 1-7 ATS last 8 as a favorite.

The Pick: Bills +3 - Buffalo suffered a let-down last week, and many are questioning them, but I expect them to bounce back well at home.

Oakland +5 at Houston: The Raiders will be playing with heavy hearts following the passing of the Ultimate Raider, Al Davis. Oakland is coming off a loss to the Pats, a game they easily could have won if not for a few questionable calls and to mistakes by Campbell, the Raiders out-gaining the Patriots. This will be a battle of the leagues Top 2 rushing teams, McFadden versus Foster, and the Texans passing game takes a hit losing Andre Johnson for a few weeks. Houston actually has a fairly solid Defense, although the Saints exposed them last week, ranked 10th against the pass. The Raiders have struggled defensively all season and needs to force turnovers to win this game. Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season and 53.1% of the action on the Texans, although the line opened at -7 so the "Sharps" appear to be leaning on the Raiders. Raiders are 12-2 ATS last 14 after a ATS loss, and 5-2 ATS last 7 as 3.5 to 10 point underdog, while Houston is 4-0 ATS as a favorite, but 4-10-2 ATS last 16 following a ATS win. Houston has won the 2 at home against the Raiders by an average of 18 points, so the Raiders do tend to struggle in Houston.

The Pick: Raiders +5 - "Win One for Al" Carries the Raiders to an Emotional Victory

New Orleans -7 at Carolina: The Saints are a team that lacks the killer instinct to cover spreads often, and heads to Carolina against a Panthers team that has played well all season. Houston and Green Bay had a lot of success throwing the ball on the Saints and Cam Newton is looking set for another big day. Carolina has yet to lose by more than 7 and have faced quality opponents in the Bears and Packers. Panthers are 6th against the pass, so the Saints may need to lean a bit more on Ingram and the running game against a 31st ranked rushing defense. Right now 65.33% of the money is on the Saints, which leads me to believe this is not "smart money". Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season, the Panthers just 3-9 ATS last 12 an underdog, while Saints are 2-9 ATS versus teams with losing records.

The Pick: Panthers +7 - Saints lack the "killer instinct" and the Panthers will put points on the board, and always seem to hang around late in games.

Cincinnati +3 at Jacksonville: The Bengals have to be happy sitting 2-2,a nd Dalton has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. The Bengals two losses by a combined 7 points. The Jags are 1-3 losing 3 in a row to the Jets, Panthers and Saints. Going unnoticed this season in the Bengals Defense, ranked 1st in total yards, 3rd against the pass and 7th against the rush, while Jacksonville struggles throwing the ball, lacking many weapons. Right now 54% of the action is on the Bengals who are 3-1 ATS this season while Jags are 1-3 ATS. Bengals are 6-0 ATS last 6 against the AFC and 5-0 ATS last 5 as an underdog. Jags are 5-1 ATS last 6 as favorite, but 1-6 ATS last 7 overall. Expecting windy and rainy conditions, favoring a close game.

The Pick: Bengals +3 - Cincy focuses on shutting down MJD and wins a tight defensive game, and an ugly one for those crazy enough to choose to watch this one.

Tennessee +3.5 at Pitt: The Steelers are not looking good at all, turning the ball over and giving up a ton of sacks, and now have to face the Titans who are one of the best defenses in the league. Big Ben has a hurt foot and Mendenhall may sit this one out. The Titans are quietly 3-1 and Hasselbeck is off to a strong start, while CJ2K is about to get it going. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS this season and 51.17% of the action on the Titans. Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, while Pitt is 4-0 ATS at home, but 7-21-1 last 29 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.

The Pick: Titans +3.5 - "Sharps" are moving this spread and Steeler injuries and turnovers are likely the difference, see Titans winning this straight up.

Seattle +9.5 at NY Giants: Seattle tends to struggle on the road and heads East for a 1pm start, and has been unable to do anything on offense this season. The Giants D should force turnovers and Manning should pick apart the Seahawk's D. Giants likely without Tuck and Jacobs, but unlikely to need them in what should be a run-away. Giants are 3-1 ATS this season and Seattle 2-2 ATS with 68.6% of the action on the G-Men. Seattle is 6-22 ATS last 28 as road underdog, and Giants are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 in October.

The Pick: Giants -9.5 - I see NY Winning this One by 17 or More

Tampa Bay +3 at SF 49ers: Tampa has won 3 in a row and remains under-rated, a young team that can run the ball well, protect the QB, and play Defense although wins have come in tight games. The 49ers are 3-1, quality win against Philly and an overtime loss against the Cowboys, but I still have plenty of doubts with this team. The 49ers are 27th against the pass, but 4th against the run, so Freeman is finally going to need to win one for the Bucs. SF is seeing 55% of the money and is 3-0-1 ATS this season. Bucs are 11-0 ATS last 11 on road versus teams with winning home records, and 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdog. 49ers are 2-9-2 last 13 ATS following a ATS win. Tampa is coming off a short week playing on Monday Night and has to travel to the West Coast.

The Pick: Tampa Bay +3 - I Continue to See the 49ers as Over-Rated although Harbaugh is a great coach, but I'll side with Raheem Morris

NY Jets +7.5 at NE Patriots: A classic battle and although the Jets are struggling they seem to always be prepared for the Pats. Tom Brady is smart enough to pick on Cromartie all day long, especially if Welker is matched up with Revis. The Pats have not really been able to win by a large spread this year due to their terrible Defense, now without their top linebacker. Sanchez has looked awful and Rex Ryan should try and keep the ball on the ground. The Jets are second against the pass, but 27th against the run, so a strength on strength match-up. The Pats are 32nd against the pass, but the Jets can not do much offensively. Jets are 1-3 ATS this season and Pats are 3-1, but 55% of the money on the Jets. Pats are 14-4 ATS last 18 as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.

The Pick: Pats -7.5 - Expect Brady to turn the 2nd ranked Jets passing D inside out

San Diego -3.5 at Denver: The notorious slow starting Chargers are 3-1 heading to Denver, a team struggling to find an identity. San Diego has not exactly been impressive with 7, 3, and 10 point wins against 3 teams with 1 combined win. Denver was torn apart by Rodgers and the Packers, so Rivers has to be excited for this one, although may be without Vincent Jackson. Chargers are 5th against the pass and 12th against the run, so I expect Denver to be held to under 13 points, and Denver is 23rd against the pass, so looking for 28 or more by San Diego. 72.7% of the action on San Diego in this one, a heavy skew, and Denver is 1-3 ATS this season. Chargers are 2-6-1 last 9 ATS on the road, and 1-6-1 ATS as road favorite. Broncos are 11-5-2 ATS last 18 as home underdog, but 8-21-2 ATS last 31 versus AFC West.

The Pick: San Diego -3.5 - Statistics and the "Dumb Money" Call for Denver to Cover, but Football IQ Says San Diego Wins by 10+

Green Bay -6 at Atlanta: The 4-0 Packers are looking like a team that could run the table this season, and no real answer for their spread offense. Also, the Defense finds ways to make big plays and Atlanta is struggling to protect Matt Ryan, really hampering the offense. Atlanta should be angry, following a loss in the playoffs last season to the Packers who went on to win it all. Atlanta has been disappointing this season, and Green Bay's stout run defense will force Atlanta to be one dimensional against the Packers 31st ranked pass defense. Atlanta should try to control the clock by running, but may struggle, and if so this one turns into a Sunday Night Shootout. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this year and Atlanta 1-3, and 65.4% of the action on the Packers. Atlanta has the chance to make this game the turning point of its season, so I expect its best effort. Packers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, but Atlanta 5-1 last 6 ATS as home underdog, but 4-16-1 ATS last 21 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The line opened closer to 4 points, so "Sharps" look to be favoring Green Bay.

The Pick: Green Bay -6 - I see way too many concerns with Atlanta's O-Line stopping the Aggressive Packers D and take Rodgers in a shootout anytime

Chicago +6 at Detroit: The 4-0 Lions are looking to continue their streak at home against the Bears, but should focus on not getting down big at the half for the 3rd straight week. Detroit with two straight squeakers of 3 and 4 points, but facing a Bears D ranked 29th against the pass and 23rd against the run. The Bears are also going to struggle against the Lions pass rush with Cutler known for making bad decisions. Detroit is seeing 57.2% of the public money and are 3-0-1 ATS this season, the Bears 1-3 ATS. Bears are 5-1 ATS last 6 Monday Night games, but 8-23 ATS last 31 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Lions are 12-2-2 last 16 ATS after a ATS win and 16-5-2 ATS last 23 overall.

The Pick: Lions -5 - Expect them to shine, finally in a prime-time game and Bears D will have no answer for the passing or running game, while Cutler will look silly.