After a 9-4 ATS week where 3 of the losses were from picking road underdogs, looking to get at least 10 of 13 this week, though a bunch of wide spreads this week, and here are the games:
St. Louis Rams +15 at Green Bay Packers: Double digit underdogs are 6-2 ATS this season in the NFL, and that is about the only thing the Rams have going for them. The Rams are 0-4, disappointing for a team that expected to wins its division this year, and Bradford has struggled. The Packers are 5-0 and averaging a 12 point margin of victory, although the schedule has been fairly easy. The Rams come in ranked 32nd against the pass, and Rodgers has so many weapons that I doubt we see a single punt from Green Bay this weekend. However, the Packers are 30th against the pass, but Bradford is likely to see a lot of blitzes and the game is at Lambeau. St Louis is 1-4 ATS this season and Packers are 4-1, and 68.4% of the public betting on the Packers to cover. Rams are 5-13 ATS last 18 as a 10.5 point or more underdog, while Packers are 7-1 ATS last 8 home games, but just 6-16-2 last 24 ATS as 10.5 or more favorite.
The Pick: Packers -15 - I See Green Bay Putting Up 45 and St Louis closer to 13, and I have the honor of playing a team in my high roller Fantasy Football league that has all Green Bay Packers.
Jacksonville +13 at Pittsburgh: The Steelers at home for the 2nd week in a row after a dominating performance against the Titans, just when people were counting them out. Pittsburgh still has plenty of injury concerns, but is 1st in the league against the pass. Jacksonville has lost 4 in a row, and struggling with a rookie QB, and Steelers will make it their top priority to shut down MJD. For a 13 point spread, Jacksonville does have a Top 10 ranked defense in the NFL that could keep the score low enough to cover. The Jags are 1-4 ATS this season and Steelers are 2-3, and 60.57% of the public siding with the Steelers. Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS last 12 against teams with winning records and 0-6 ATS last 6 as underdog. Steelers are 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, but only 6-14 ATS as a 10.5 or more point favorite.
The Pick: Jags +13 - Steelers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team and I feel that I should side with one of the double digit underdogs, and the Jags play good enough defense to keep this game in range, and MJD could bust a few plays.
Eagles -2 at Redskins: The Eagles continue to disappoint, and although involved in close games, making too many mistakes with penalties and turnovers, both of which are tough to correct, especially on the road against a divisional foe. Skins come off a bye well rested and feature one of the NFL's top ranked defenses, although wins against Arizona and St Louis were unimpressive. The Eagles are 30th against the run and Washington should control the tempo, running Torrain, Helu and Hightower in a bruising effort, and the Eagles known to quit. The Eagles still have the public's faith with 59.7% of the action, even at 1-4 ATS this season while Skins are 3-1. The Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, while Washington is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as underdog, but just 7-15-2 ATS last 24 at home.
The Pick: Skins +2 - I have bet against the Eagle all season and won, and I see Washington controlling this on the ground and causing Vick havoc all day long.
49ers +4 at Detroit Lions: The 49ers are 4-1 and could easily be 5-0, but I am still not a believer, even after thrashing Tampa Bay 48-3. I am a believer in the 5-0 Lions who will be at home in front of a pumped crown once again. Detroit has a ton of weapons on offense and the pass rush should really shake up Alex Smith, who lost Josh Morgan with a broken ankle. The 49ers are 23rd against the pass and should have no answer for Stafford to Mega-Tron. Both teams are 4-0-1 ATS this season and the public has 59.9% of the bets on the Lions. 49ers are 11-4-3 last 18 ATS as an underdog, while Lions are 14-4-3 ATS last 21 against the NFC and 10-0-1 last 11 ATS after a SU win.
The Pick: Lions -4 - Detroit keep rolling and exposes SF as a fake
Panthers +4 at Atlanta Falcons: There have been a lot of disappointing teams in the league, but Atlanta is at the top of that list for me. Falcons are 2-3 and could be 0-5, and now without Julio Jones this week. They are 28th against the pass and Cam Newton comes in averaging around 400 yards a game on the road. Carolina has kept a bunch of games close and is on the brink of a big win, and it may come this week. Panthers are 27th against the run so Turner could be in for a big day and Falcons will play clock control. Carolina is 4-1 ATS and Atlanta is 1-4, and Falcons with 52% of the action so far. Panthers are 4-9 ATS last 13 as underdog, and Falcons are 17-5 ATS last 22 following a loss.
The Pick: Panthers +4 - Upset Alert - Carolina could win this straight up, but expect the game to come down to the wire
Colts +7 at Bengals: I never thought I'd see this spread for Colts/Bengals, but things have changed quickly for these teams. The 0-5 Colts are showing improvement and have lost the last 4 by an average of just 5.5 points. Painter has played well at QB, although may be pressured this week with Addai out with injury. The Bengals are 3-2 and winning with defense and Dalton playing game-manager. Dalton could make some mistakes this week with Mathis and Freeney providing pressure. The Colts are 31st against the run, so Benson set for a big afternoon. Bengals are 3rd against the pass and 7th against the run, a tough day ahead for the Colts offense. Cincy is 4-1 ATS this season and Colts are 2-3, and 59.5% betting Indy. Colts are 8-3 ATS last 11 as an underdof, while Bengals are 7-0 ATS last 7 versus AFC opponents, but just 3-13 last 16 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorite.
The Pick: Colts +7 - Indy improving and Cincy winning close games makes for another close one.
Bilss +3 at Giants: This could be the trickiest game of the week, the underdog Bills love that role and facing a Giants team that looked awful at home against the Seahawks, and make this one look way too obvious. Giants lack many quality wins, while Buffalo is for real, although potentially without defensive stars Merriman and Kyle Williams for this game. The Giants are 21st against the run and not much better against the pass, and the Bills know how to score points. However, Buffalo is 29th against the run and 26th against the pass, looking like a shoot-out, so bet the over. Both teams are 3-2 ATS this season, and 62.65% of bets riding the Bills. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 0 to 3 points, while NY is just 4-10-1 last 15 as home favorite ATS.
The Pick: Bills +3 - No Edge Here and Hate Going with Obvious Choice, but both Defenses Playing Poorly, so Counting on Ole Miss Education of Eli to make more mistakes than Harvard-man Fitzpatrick.
Texans +7 at Ravens: Houston, a team that looks to be playoff-caliber, opens as an 8 point dog to the Ravens. Houston lost a tough one last week and is not playing up to potential, also hurt by the absence of Andre Johnson, and now without Mario Williams. Baltimore is well-rested coming off a bye and the Raven's D is back to its old form, causing a ton of turnovers. Arian Foster is the key to the game and faces the 2nd ranked run defense. Houston is 3-2 ATS this season and Ravens are 3-1, and 56.3% of the public taking the Texans to cover. Texans are 1-5 ATS last 6 as road underdog, while Baltimore is 47-22-1 last 70 ATS as home favorite.
The Pick: Baltimore -7 - Betting Against the Dumb Money - Texans Ship ready to Sink Along with Coach Kubiak's Job Security
Browns +7 at Raiders: My Raiders at home for the next 3 and 3-2, chance to go 6-2 with the schedule, while Browns are coming off a bye week at 2-2, wins against the winless Dolphins and Colts. Oakland tends to make enough mistakes to keep these games it should win close, and facing the 25th ranked rushing defense, McFadden should have a huge day, though Browns are 4th against the pass. Oakland is near the bottom of the league on all defensive stats,, but does have a good pass rush. Cleveland gets Peyton Hillis back, and Raiders do struggle more against big physical backs. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season while Browns are 1-2-1 and 72.8% of the action on the Raiders,a heavy bias. Browns are 7-0 ATS last 7 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Oakland is 2-12 ATS as home favorite last 14.
The Pick: Browns +7 - Love my Raiders and Expect a Win, but I also know they play down for bad teams, and statistics point to a cover while all the money is on one side.
Cowboys +7 at Patriots: Dallas goes on the road to face the Pats and gets back Miles Austin and Felix, Romo, and Dez all should be healthier, making for a high scoring game against the Swiss cheese Pats defense. Dallas is 1st against the run, and will force Brady to pass, and expect Ryan's Defense to blitz Brady all day long, although he often thrives with that approach. However, if Ware and company can get a few shots on Brady early, he does get rattles and makes mistakes. Dallas is 1-2-1 ATS and New England is 4-1 this season, and 67.3% on the Pats in this one. Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 as underdog, while New England is 39-18-1 last 58 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite.
The Pick: Dallas +7 - Plenty of Offense this One, Take the Over and if Romo Avoids the Mistakes, Dallas can actually UPSET the Pats this weekend.
Saints -4.5 at Tampa Bay: The Saints have won 4 in a row and are on the road for 3rd straight against the Bucs who got blown out 48-3 last week vs 49ers, although a tough game traveling to the West Coast after a Monday Nighter. Bucs are without top RB Blount this week, so Freeman needs to make plays. Tampa is much better than what last week's game showed, but defensively 20th against the pass. Saints have the edge on both sides of the ball here, although on the road. Saints are 3-2 ATS this season and Bucs are 2-3, and 72% of public betting New Orleans to cover. Saints are just 2-6 ATS last 8 road games, and Bucs are 5-17 ATS last 22 at home, and 3-13 ATS last 16 as home underdog.
The Pick: Saints -4.5 - I see Tampa struggling on both sides on the ball and Brees will lead the Saints to at least a 7 point win, so siding with the Squares here
Vikings +3 at Bears: The Vikings take their 31st ranked passing game and 3rd ranked rushing game to Chicago, and are 1-4, but could be 5-0. Chicago is 27th against the pass and 28th against the run, and lost 3 of last 4. Cutler is not getting it done, his offensive line partly to blame, and Forte is the Bears Offense, and tough this week against 5th ranked run D. Chicago is seeing 62.7% of the bets, although 1-4 ATS this season while Vikings are 2-2-1. This is a huge game for the Bears season, and they should be fired up. Vikings are 2-9-1 last 12 as underdog ATS, while Chicago is 2-13 ATS last 15 Week 6 games.
The Pick: Vikings +3 - Peterson vs Forte and Vikings D is much Better so Edge goes to Peterson and the Vikings as long as McNabb doesn't screw things up. Also, Peppers may be out for the Bears. I'm looking for a Vikings win, not just a cover.
Dolphins +7 at Jets: The 0-4 Dolphins on the road to face an angry Jets team on a losing streak, a good way to turn things around. Miami is much better than the 0-4 record shows, but has now lost Henne at QB. Jets lost 3 in a row, but quality opponents. Jets should have no problem winning this one at home, but looking at the spread, need to see the offense click in order to cover. Jets are 26th against the run and Miami has Bush and Thomas as quality runners. Miami is 31st against the pass so Sanchez should finally get things going. Jets are 1-4 ATS and Miami 0-3-1 ATS, and 64.65% betting NY for this game. Miami is 9-3-1 last 13 ATS as road underdog, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. AFC East. Jets are 1-4 ATS on Monday Night, but 9-3 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
The Pick: Jets -7 - Statement Game - Turn Things Around
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