The week ahead has a fairly lousy schedule, no games between teams with winning records, but still a few interesting match-ups and the story-line being new QB's in Washington, Denver, Minnesota and Oakland.
Chicago Bears -1 vs Tampa Bay Bucs (In London): The Bears are coming off their best performance of the season, and now sit 3-3, but traveling to London on a short week. The Bucs shocked the Saints last week after being thrashed by the 49ers the week prior, and sit 4-2. The Bears defense is no longer what it used to be, ranked 25th against the pass and 22nd against the run. Tampa is 26th against the pass and 18th against the rush. The public is currently siding with Tampa at 53.1%, fairly even, and Tampa is 3-3 ATS this season, while Chicago is 2-4. Chicago is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 as a 0.5 to 3 point road favorite, and the Bucs are 7-2 ATS last 9 as an underdog.
The Pick: Bucs +1 - Travel Schedule and Statistics Favor Tampa - Forte and Hester the Best Players in this Game both on the Bears, but Freeman Pulls Out Another 4th Quarter Comeback
Washington Redskins +3 at Carolina Panthers: The 3-2 Skins an underdog against the 1-5 Panthers seems unusual, but Washington made a QB change with Beck now in, although he is a solid QB that can manage a game. The Panthers are 5th in the league passing, but the Skins are stout on defense, 9th against the pass. Carolina's run defense is 31st against the run, so Helu, Hightower, and Torrain should all find some room to run and control the clock. 67% of the public is taking the 1-5 home Panthers in this one, Caroline 4-2 ATS this season and Washington 3-2. Skins are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as road underdog, while Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS last 9 as 0.5 to 3 point favorite.
The Pick: Skins +3 - Washington can still salvage a good season and Beck is an upgrade to Grossman, while Cam Newton is coming back to earth and will make some key mistakes, and too much dumb money with the Panthers here.
San Diego Chargers -2.5 at NY Jets: The Jets are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this year, and really needs this game this week. The Jets have not looked good, but a team that has all the pieces and Sanchez just needs to get his act together. The Chargers are well rested coming off a bye, but still the East to West travel and at 4-1, but against 4 of the worst teams in the league. The Jets have been lousy against the run, ranked 28th, and Tolbert/Matthews will be the key because Revis should take away Vincent Jackson, while the Chargers may get a boost with Gates expected to return from injury. Chargers are 2nd against the pass and Jets are 31st running the ball, but LT should be fired up for this one against his former team and has a lot to prove. San Diego is receiving 57.6% of the public action so far, although 2-3 ATS this season. San Diego is 2-6-1 last 9 as a road favorite ATS, while Jets are 6-1 ATS last 7 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog.
The Pick: Jets +2.5 - Line Opened at Even so Money is Moving to the Chargers, but my feel is that the Jets have more to lose, and want this game more, and can beat an underachieving team.
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cleveland Browns: Seattle is coming off a bye week and has looked alright this season, much of which can be attributed to coaching, beating the Giants and losing a tight one with the Falcons. Seattle making another trip out East, and Charlie Whitehurst now in at QB. The Browns are 2-3, low quality wins, and will struggle running the ball Sunday, so the pressure will be on Colt McCoy. Cleveland is seeing 59.3% of the betting action, although 1-3-1 ATS this season and Seattle is 3-2. Seattle is 6-20 ATS last 26 as road underdog, while Browns are 1-7-1 last 9 ATS overall and 0-6-1 ATS at home.
The Pick: Seattle +3 - It Will be Ugly, but it Should be Close and Cleveland is not a Tough team for Seattle to steal a 2nd Straight Road Win as I Fall into the Road Underdog Trap Again
Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans: The Texans are falling apart at the seams with key injuries, and have lost 3 of the last 4 and now on the road. Titans are quietly 3-2 and coming off a bye week, time to get Chris Johnson going this week. The Titans are lacking a WR threat with Britt done for the year, but they should have success running the ball finally. Houston is seeing 59% of the bets at a road underdog, and is 3-3 ATS this season, Titans at 2-3 ATS. Houston is 0-5 ATS last 5 as underdog, while Titans are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 as home favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Titans -3 - As much as the Texans look to be appealing as a 3 point dog, I think the Titans come out and prove they are going to win the AFC South, and shut down the Texans big play passing game.
Denver Broncos Pick at Miami Dolphins: This may be the suck for Luck bowl, see which teams can do their best to lose. Tim Tebow the story of this game, his first start and in his state of Florida, but honestly he is a terrible QB and the Broncos lack much of a running game this season. Miami is 0-6 and although in some close games, things going downhill with Henne out, although Moore seems to have a great connection with Marshall. Miami won't do much defensively to stop Tebow, but the Broncos are also near the bottom of the league on Defense, and expect a breakout game for rookie RB Daniel Thomas. The public is betting with Denver, 65.3%. Denver is 2-6 ATS last 8 road games, while Miami is 0-7-1 last 8 ATS overall.
The Pick: Dolphins - Miami should be able to move the ball all day long, and Tebow is exposed for what he is, a Fullback with a QB's number
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at Detroit Lions: The Falcons look to be ready to turn their season around, although likely without Julio Jones again, and will use Michael Turner to get back to their brand of football. The Falcons are 27th against the pass, and that is the Lion's specialty, although a big blow to both the running and passing game this week with Jahvid Best out. Detroit suffered their first loss last week and must show they can bounce back, not the Lions of old. The public is split in this one, 50.8% with Detroit, the Lions 4-1-1 ATS this season and Falcons just 2-4. Detroit has been in a lot of close games, but I think the pass rush will cause Matt Ryan to struggle. Falcons are 13-6 ATS last 19 as road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but the Lions are 13-3-1 last 17 ATS vs NFC opponents.
The Pick: Lions -3.5 - Detroit may become 1-Dimensional but Atlanta will not have an answer defensively, and Matt Ryan is in for a long day against Suh and Company.
Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Oakland Raiders: This one would have been a run-away for the Raiders, but now without their starting QB and Palmer not ready for this game, so left with Kyle Boller starting, a major downgrade, and Raiders likely without another top weapon, their kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Oakland will run the ball but the Chiefs will put 8 men in the box to try and make Boller beat them. Kansas City fresh off a bye week and on a 2 game winning streak, and showing a lot of improvement after being hit with early season injuries. Dwayne Bowe is match-up problem for the Raiders defense, and the Chiefs may be able to run the ball by committee. Oakland is seeing 72% of the betting action, and are 5-1 ATS this season, last week a back-door cover the only loss. The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS last 14 as underdog, and Oakland is 3-12 last 15 ATS as home favorite.
The Pick: Chiefs +4 - Raiders too many uncertainties at QB now and missing Jano is a Big Deal.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Arizona Cardinals: The only part of this that makes it a fair game is the Steelers have to travel out West. Pittsburgh is showing they are not too old, and rumors of their demise were exaggerated. Arizona is going to struggle against the top-ranked pass defense and Kolb likely makes more than a couple mistakes. Arizona is 20th against the run and pass and Steelers have plenty of weapons to make this the blowout of the week. Pittsburgh is seeing 73.9% of the betting action, although just 2-4 ATS this season. Steelers are 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road, but 6-2 ATS last 8 as a favorite. Cardinals are 10-4 ATS last 14 as home underdog.
The Pick: Steelers -4 - Statistics say the Cardinals find a way to cover, but purely based on the match-up I do not see how.
St Louis Rams +13 at Dallas Cowboys: The 0-5 Rams showed heart last week and stuck in there with the Packers and I was impressed with the defensive play. Bradford has a high ankle sprain, but does get a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd. Dallas lost a tough on against the Pats, and this is a trap game before a Sunday Night game with the Eagles. Dallas will be without Felix Jones at RB, although he has been a non-factor this season. Rams are ranked dead last against the run so Choice and Murray should fill in fine for Jones this week. Dallas is 1st against the run and will force Bradford to throw a lot, and he has a bum ankle against the blitzing Rob Ryan defense, a tough match-up likely leading to turnovers. The heavily favored Cowboys seeing 61.4% of the action, and are 2-2-1 ATS this season, the Rams 0-5 ATS, unable to cover. There is some compelling trend of double digit underdogs covering spreads this season. Rams are 5-14 ATS last 19 as 10.5 or more underdog, while Dallas is just 1-9-1 last 11 ATS as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS as home favorite.
The Pick: Cowboys -13 - Dallas tends to underachieve, but this one is an easy one they should run-away with
Green Bay Packers -9 at Minnesota Vikings: The Packers are dominant and can't be stopped, so not a lot of analysis needed here. Vikings starting a rookie QB in Ponder and coming off a beating by the Bears, and the Packers are much better. The only problem in this one is it seems too obvious. The public is taking the Packers 81.3%, and Green bay 5-1 ATS this season, the Vikings 2-3-1. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS last 10 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Packers -9 - Should be No Contest Despite the Rivalry. Packers are 5th against the run which limits the Vikings only chance, a big day for Peterson being unlikely.
Indianapolis Colts +14 at New Orleans Saints: The winless Colts head to New Orleans for the Sunday night game, one that schedule makers though would be a great match-up come week 7. The Colts have not been getting blown out, and are showing progress on offense, while the D is not playing all that bad. The Saints have been rather unimpressive, losing to Tampa last week, and narrow wins against the Panthers and Jags. However, the Saints are much better at home, though coach Sean Payton will coach from the Press Box with a broken leg. The Saints are seeing 66% of the action to cover, and Saints are 3-3 ATS this season, while Colts are 2-4. Colts are 10-2 ATS last 12 as a 10.5 or greater underdog, and 15-7-2 last 24 ATS on the road. Saints are 2-10 ATS vs. teams with losing records, and 1-5 ATS as home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
The Pick: Colts +14 - Saints should win easily, but I expect Indy to at least stay within 2 TD's
Baltimore Ravens -9 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The 4-1 Ravens with a fairly easy road match-up on Monday Night, and have looked very good this season. The Jags have lost 5 in a row, but have been in games, but they lack threats throwing the ball with MJD 75% of their offense and expect the Ravens D to key on him all game. The public has 69.5% of the action on Baltimore, and the Ravens are 4-1 ATS this season, Jags at 2-4. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 6 Monday Night games, while Jags are 2-7 ATS last 9 Monday Night games, and 1-6 ATS last 7 games overall as an underdog.
The Pick: Ravens -9 - I'm Surprised the Spread Is Not Larger - Another Poorly Scheduled Monday Night Game
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