The Game: Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks
The Line: Seattle +2.5
News: Vick Not Expected to Play for Eagles, Sidney Rice Out for Seattle
Analysis: The question in this one really is what Eagles team will show up. The team has been a major disappointment all season and now Andy Reid's job in jeopardy, and having to travel to the West Coast on a short week to face a team that has a strong home-field advantage. The Eagles rank in the Top 10 in most offensive stats, but also near last in turnovers. Seattle has won 2 of its last 3 and as turned to the running game with Lynch. The Eagles are clearly the more talented team, but games are won on the field, not on paper.
Bet Trends: The public continues to love the Eagles with 67.3% of the action. Eagles are 4-10 ATS last 14 games, but 7-2 ATS last 9 after a double digit loss at home. Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 and 5-1 ATS last 6 versus NFC teams.
The Pick: Eagles -2.5 - Eagles should turn focus back to McCoy to win this one, and Seattle will have trouble on offense with Tavaris Jackson looking shaky at best.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Week 12 NFL Picks
Green Bay -7 at Detroit: The 10-0 Packers put their perfect season on the line with a visit to Detroit on Thanksgiving, a game the Lions have been lining up all season. Green Bay struggled against an aggressive Tampa Bay Defense last week, and this is the first time they see the Lions this year, and on the road. The Lions won a shoot out with the Panthers last week, but have been shaky after a strong start to the season. Detroit found a running game last week with Kevin Smith and Best is out again this week. The Lions match-up well, 5th against the pass, and Packers 31st against the pass. Green Bay is seeing 57.3% of the public action, and Packers are 9-3 ATS last 12 as favorites. Detroit is 0-7 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Lions +7 - I think the pass rush will get to Rodgers this week and Lions have no problem putting up points to keep it close, and possibly win outright.
Miami +7 at Dallas: The Cowboys have won 3 in a row but still never know what you might get with this team, and Romo who has been dominant in November for years. Miami comes to town riding their own 3 game win streak and has allowed just 20 points in 3 games. Dallas is seeing 51% of the public action so far, and a line that opened at -9 has been pushed to -7. Miami is 13-5-1 last 19 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 6-0 ATS last 6 Thursday games, but just 2-9 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Both teams could struggle on the ground, and Dallas has the advantage in the passing game. Romo is 4-0 on Thanksgiving with a 12-2 TD/INT Ratio.
The Pick: Miami +7 - I felt the Dolphins were good even when they were 0-7, and finally starting to win, so I look for a close game, and the key will be forcing 2+ turnovers.
San Francisco +3 at Baltimore: The 49ers have won 8 straight and are shafted by the scheduling, its 4th trip to the East coast and this one on a short week. Baltimore is a team that has had plenty of ups and downs, at 7-3 but with some bad losses. San Francisco relies on running the ball and Gore ha been banged up so the short week hurts him, and the Ravens are stout against the run, ranked 5th. San Francisco is #1 against the run, but has had struggles in the passing game. 49ers with 63.1% of the betting action, a team that is 9-0-1 ATS this season. However, SF is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs. Baltimore is 10-4-1 last 15 ATS as home favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, but 0-3-1 ATS last 4 as favorites.
The Pick: Baltimore -3 - Too many factors this week, and the veteran Harbaugh wins the Brothers Bowl
Arizona +3 St Louis: This is one of those games to sleep through, Rams winners of 2 of the last 4, while Cardinals winners of 2 of the last 3. Kolb may return for the Cards, although not likely a good thing. Arizona is 5-5 ATS this season and Rams are 2-8. Arizona at 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road and St Louis 8-20 ATS last 28 divisional games.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 - Talented team starting to click and Peterson dynamic on Special Teams
Buffalo +9 at NY Jets: An AFC East battle of 5-5 teams where Vegas is favoring NY big time, although losers of 2 in a row, an offense that is ugly to watch. Bills have lost 3 in a row and Fitzpatrick is throwing to the wrong team since signing a big contract, and Buffalo without Fred Jackson really hurts. Jets beat them 26-11 just 3 weeks ago. Buffalo is seeing 58.55% of the public action, and are 9-4 ATS last 13 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: Jets -9 - Without Fred Jackson the Bills are unlikely to score many poitns and turnovers will crush them.
Cleveland +7.5 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are no slouch, but have lost 2 straight to Steelers and Ravens, unlikely to be able to make a playoff run looking at the schedule. Dalton is solid and they can run the ball well. Browns are 1st against the pass, but 29th against the run, and dismal on the offensive side of the ball. This game could be a Field Goal Fest. Bengals seeing 59.75% of the action, an impressive 7-2-1 ATS this season, but 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorites. Browns are 7-2 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10, but 0-7 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Browns +7.5 - Sloppy game favors the underdog to cover
Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville: The Jags are not very good except for the MNF game against the Ravens, but Houston comes in with Matt Leinart now at QB, a major concern, but does get back Andre Johnson who could make any QB look good. Houston is coming off a bye week, which has hurt teams this year, but was looking to be a top contender in the AFC. They rank 4th against the run and 2nd against the pass. Houston is seeing 71.7% of the action, and the Jags are just 4-10-1 ATS last 15 against winning record teams.
The Pick: Houston -3.5 - Arina Foster and Ben Tate will provide the offense, and the Defense should keep Jags under 14 points
Carolina -3.5 at Indianapolis: The Colts look for their first win of the season with a rookie QB coming to town that has been turning the ball over way too often, peaked early this season. Carolina has been able to score, but can;t stop anybody. Carolina is receiving 77.2% of the public action, heavy favorites. Panthers are 8-2-1 last 11 ATS as favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Colts are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. I feel like Peyton Manning used the bye week to do some coaching to the Colts QB's and they should come into this game healthier.
The Pick: Colts +3.5 - Potentially Get 1st Win
Tampa Bay +3 at Tennessee: The 5-5 Titans still believe they can make the playoffs and I was impressed with Jake Locker last week, though it looks like the old vet is back in at QB this week. Tampa played admirably against the Packers last week, but have dropped 4 straight, though to some of the league's elite teams. Tampa Bay seeing 57.6% of the action, and are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 on the road, while Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 as favorites.
The Pick: Bucs +3 - Freeman looked to turn a corner last week, and should continue
Minnesota +9.5 at Atlanta: The Vikings really are not that bad to be a 9 point dog, but with Peterson likely out and a rookie QB having to go on the road to a hostile environment against an offense starting to roll, it is a tough match-up. Matt Ryan and Roddy White should be set for a big day against a beaten up Vikings secondary, although last week the Titans snuck in with a late backdoor cover. Atlanta is seeing 65.66% of the action, and are 12-4 ATS last 16 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Vikings are 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road.
The Pick: Falcons -9.5 - This one could get ugly
Chicago +4 at Oakland: The 6-4 Raiders should be 8-2, and will face a Bears team that was rolling but lost Jay Cutlet for the year. Raiders have their own injury issues, McFadden still out and without their top 3 WR's, so they could struggle against a strong Bear's D and Raiders have struggled at home, and especially in the 4th quarter of games, so a run-a-way is highly unlikely. Matt Forte also in for a good match-up against the 25th ranked run D. The public siding with Oakland for 52.5%, but Raiders just 8-23 ATS last 31 as favorites. Bears are 7-19 ATS last 26 as 3 to 10 point dogs on the road.
The Pick: Bears +4 - I know my Raiders and they will find a way to make this one interesting
Washington +3.5 at Seattle: The Skins have lost 6 straight, but put up a good fight against the Cowboys last week with Grossman moving the chains. Seattle is great at home and ranked strong defensively, winning 2 in a row as well. Seattle receiving 56.3% of the public action, and are 8-2 ATS last 100 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Skins are 7-22-3 last 32 ATS against teams with losing records.
The Pick: Washington +3.5 - Tavaris Jackson scares me, and will make mistakes to keep this close
New England -3 at Philadelphia: The Eagles basically do the opposite of what you expect, losing to the Cardinals at home, but then beating the Giants on the road without Vick at QB. Pats are starting to roll and even play some Defense, but the Eagles can pressure the QB and shut down WR's. New England one of this week's favorite public picks, 73% of the bets. Pats are 47-23-3 ATS last 73 road games, and Eagles are 1-7 ATS last 8 at home.
The Pick: Patriots -3 - Officially End the Dream Team's Season
Denver +7 at San Diego: Tebow takes his apostles to San Diego with a 3 game winning streak. He is an embarrassment to the position, but finds ways to win. Denver will be giving the Chargers a full dose of its running game and the Charges have dropped 5 in a row, always a team that everyone picks to start the season, but can;t get it done with Norv Turner at the helm. Rivers has turned into Ryan Leaf all of a sudden and the D can not stop the run. Denver is seeing 50% of the public action, a split public. San Diego is 24-8 ATS last 32 as 3.5 to 10 point home favorites, but 0-6-1 ATS last 7 after a loss.
The Pick: Broncos +7 - Denver's style of play calls for another close game and some more Tebow heroics
Pittsburgh -11 at Kansas City: The Chiefs have lost 3 straight and on a short week have to face a well-rested Steelers team, although Big Ben has a broken thumb. Pittsburgh has not exactly been blowing teams out so the large spread is surprising. The public likes the Steelers with 74.4% of the action, and both teams are 5-5 ATS this season, Steelers are 0-4 ATS last 4 as road favorites of 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdgos and 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs.
The Pick: Chiefs +11 - KC is a lot better at home usually and should be able to play a tight one
NY Giants +7 at New Orleans: The 7-3 Saints coming off a bye and at home for a Monday Night showdown. The Giants looked terrible last week against the Eagles and too much pressure on Eli Manning without Bradshaw to support a running attack. Saints are seeing 57.5% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as home favorites, while NY is 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday Night games and 30-14 ATS last 44 on the road. The Giants should be able to move the ball on the Saints, and New Orleans could struggle against the pass rush.
The Pick: Giants +7
The Pick: Lions +7 - I think the pass rush will get to Rodgers this week and Lions have no problem putting up points to keep it close, and possibly win outright.
Miami +7 at Dallas: The Cowboys have won 3 in a row but still never know what you might get with this team, and Romo who has been dominant in November for years. Miami comes to town riding their own 3 game win streak and has allowed just 20 points in 3 games. Dallas is seeing 51% of the public action so far, and a line that opened at -9 has been pushed to -7. Miami is 13-5-1 last 19 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 6-0 ATS last 6 Thursday games, but just 2-9 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Both teams could struggle on the ground, and Dallas has the advantage in the passing game. Romo is 4-0 on Thanksgiving with a 12-2 TD/INT Ratio.
The Pick: Miami +7 - I felt the Dolphins were good even when they were 0-7, and finally starting to win, so I look for a close game, and the key will be forcing 2+ turnovers.
San Francisco +3 at Baltimore: The 49ers have won 8 straight and are shafted by the scheduling, its 4th trip to the East coast and this one on a short week. Baltimore is a team that has had plenty of ups and downs, at 7-3 but with some bad losses. San Francisco relies on running the ball and Gore ha been banged up so the short week hurts him, and the Ravens are stout against the run, ranked 5th. San Francisco is #1 against the run, but has had struggles in the passing game. 49ers with 63.1% of the betting action, a team that is 9-0-1 ATS this season. However, SF is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs. Baltimore is 10-4-1 last 15 ATS as home favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, but 0-3-1 ATS last 4 as favorites.
The Pick: Baltimore -3 - Too many factors this week, and the veteran Harbaugh wins the Brothers Bowl
Arizona +3 St Louis: This is one of those games to sleep through, Rams winners of 2 of the last 4, while Cardinals winners of 2 of the last 3. Kolb may return for the Cards, although not likely a good thing. Arizona is 5-5 ATS this season and Rams are 2-8. Arizona at 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road and St Louis 8-20 ATS last 28 divisional games.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 - Talented team starting to click and Peterson dynamic on Special Teams
Buffalo +9 at NY Jets: An AFC East battle of 5-5 teams where Vegas is favoring NY big time, although losers of 2 in a row, an offense that is ugly to watch. Bills have lost 3 in a row and Fitzpatrick is throwing to the wrong team since signing a big contract, and Buffalo without Fred Jackson really hurts. Jets beat them 26-11 just 3 weeks ago. Buffalo is seeing 58.55% of the public action, and are 9-4 ATS last 13 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: Jets -9 - Without Fred Jackson the Bills are unlikely to score many poitns and turnovers will crush them.
Cleveland +7.5 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are no slouch, but have lost 2 straight to Steelers and Ravens, unlikely to be able to make a playoff run looking at the schedule. Dalton is solid and they can run the ball well. Browns are 1st against the pass, but 29th against the run, and dismal on the offensive side of the ball. This game could be a Field Goal Fest. Bengals seeing 59.75% of the action, an impressive 7-2-1 ATS this season, but 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorites. Browns are 7-2 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10, but 0-7 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Browns +7.5 - Sloppy game favors the underdog to cover
Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville: The Jags are not very good except for the MNF game against the Ravens, but Houston comes in with Matt Leinart now at QB, a major concern, but does get back Andre Johnson who could make any QB look good. Houston is coming off a bye week, which has hurt teams this year, but was looking to be a top contender in the AFC. They rank 4th against the run and 2nd against the pass. Houston is seeing 71.7% of the action, and the Jags are just 4-10-1 ATS last 15 against winning record teams.
The Pick: Houston -3.5 - Arina Foster and Ben Tate will provide the offense, and the Defense should keep Jags under 14 points
Carolina -3.5 at Indianapolis: The Colts look for their first win of the season with a rookie QB coming to town that has been turning the ball over way too often, peaked early this season. Carolina has been able to score, but can;t stop anybody. Carolina is receiving 77.2% of the public action, heavy favorites. Panthers are 8-2-1 last 11 ATS as favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Colts are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. I feel like Peyton Manning used the bye week to do some coaching to the Colts QB's and they should come into this game healthier.
The Pick: Colts +3.5 - Potentially Get 1st Win
Tampa Bay +3 at Tennessee: The 5-5 Titans still believe they can make the playoffs and I was impressed with Jake Locker last week, though it looks like the old vet is back in at QB this week. Tampa played admirably against the Packers last week, but have dropped 4 straight, though to some of the league's elite teams. Tampa Bay seeing 57.6% of the action, and are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 on the road, while Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 as favorites.
The Pick: Bucs +3 - Freeman looked to turn a corner last week, and should continue
Minnesota +9.5 at Atlanta: The Vikings really are not that bad to be a 9 point dog, but with Peterson likely out and a rookie QB having to go on the road to a hostile environment against an offense starting to roll, it is a tough match-up. Matt Ryan and Roddy White should be set for a big day against a beaten up Vikings secondary, although last week the Titans snuck in with a late backdoor cover. Atlanta is seeing 65.66% of the action, and are 12-4 ATS last 16 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Vikings are 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road.
The Pick: Falcons -9.5 - This one could get ugly
Chicago +4 at Oakland: The 6-4 Raiders should be 8-2, and will face a Bears team that was rolling but lost Jay Cutlet for the year. Raiders have their own injury issues, McFadden still out and without their top 3 WR's, so they could struggle against a strong Bear's D and Raiders have struggled at home, and especially in the 4th quarter of games, so a run-a-way is highly unlikely. Matt Forte also in for a good match-up against the 25th ranked run D. The public siding with Oakland for 52.5%, but Raiders just 8-23 ATS last 31 as favorites. Bears are 7-19 ATS last 26 as 3 to 10 point dogs on the road.
The Pick: Bears +4 - I know my Raiders and they will find a way to make this one interesting
Washington +3.5 at Seattle: The Skins have lost 6 straight, but put up a good fight against the Cowboys last week with Grossman moving the chains. Seattle is great at home and ranked strong defensively, winning 2 in a row as well. Seattle receiving 56.3% of the public action, and are 8-2 ATS last 100 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Skins are 7-22-3 last 32 ATS against teams with losing records.
The Pick: Washington +3.5 - Tavaris Jackson scares me, and will make mistakes to keep this close
New England -3 at Philadelphia: The Eagles basically do the opposite of what you expect, losing to the Cardinals at home, but then beating the Giants on the road without Vick at QB. Pats are starting to roll and even play some Defense, but the Eagles can pressure the QB and shut down WR's. New England one of this week's favorite public picks, 73% of the bets. Pats are 47-23-3 ATS last 73 road games, and Eagles are 1-7 ATS last 8 at home.
The Pick: Patriots -3 - Officially End the Dream Team's Season
Denver +7 at San Diego: Tebow takes his apostles to San Diego with a 3 game winning streak. He is an embarrassment to the position, but finds ways to win. Denver will be giving the Chargers a full dose of its running game and the Charges have dropped 5 in a row, always a team that everyone picks to start the season, but can;t get it done with Norv Turner at the helm. Rivers has turned into Ryan Leaf all of a sudden and the D can not stop the run. Denver is seeing 50% of the public action, a split public. San Diego is 24-8 ATS last 32 as 3.5 to 10 point home favorites, but 0-6-1 ATS last 7 after a loss.
The Pick: Broncos +7 - Denver's style of play calls for another close game and some more Tebow heroics
Pittsburgh -11 at Kansas City: The Chiefs have lost 3 straight and on a short week have to face a well-rested Steelers team, although Big Ben has a broken thumb. Pittsburgh has not exactly been blowing teams out so the large spread is surprising. The public likes the Steelers with 74.4% of the action, and both teams are 5-5 ATS this season, Steelers are 0-4 ATS last 4 as road favorites of 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdgos and 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs.
The Pick: Chiefs +11 - KC is a lot better at home usually and should be able to play a tight one
NY Giants +7 at New Orleans: The 7-3 Saints coming off a bye and at home for a Monday Night showdown. The Giants looked terrible last week against the Eagles and too much pressure on Eli Manning without Bradshaw to support a running attack. Saints are seeing 57.5% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as home favorites, while NY is 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday Night games and 30-14 ATS last 44 on the road. The Giants should be able to move the ball on the Saints, and New Orleans could struggle against the pass rush.
The Pick: Giants +7
Sunday, November 20, 2011
NFL Week 11 Additional Wagers
Betting Trends:
Sharps: Skins, Browns, Rams, Carolina, Miami, Vikings
Squares: Green Bay, New England, Atlanta, Giants, Oakland
Over-Under Bets
Cincy/Baltimore Under 40.5
Tampa Bay / Green Bay Over 49
Dallas / Washington Under 42
Tennessee / Atlanta Under 44
San Diego / Chicago Over 45
Teaser, 6.5 Points, 7 Teams
Jacksonville +7.5, Detroit -0.5, Vikings +7.5, Arizona +16.5, Seattle +9.5, San Diego +10.5, Dallas -1.5
Sharps: Skins, Browns, Rams, Carolina, Miami, Vikings
Squares: Green Bay, New England, Atlanta, Giants, Oakland
Over-Under Bets
Cincy/Baltimore Under 40.5
Tampa Bay / Green Bay Over 49
Dallas / Washington Under 42
Tennessee / Atlanta Under 44
San Diego / Chicago Over 45
Teaser, 6.5 Points, 7 Teams
Jacksonville +7.5, Detroit -0.5, Vikings +7.5, Arizona +16.5, Seattle +9.5, San Diego +10.5, Dallas -1.5
Saturday, November 19, 2011
NFL Week 11 Picks
Buffalo +2 at Miami: A few weeks ago you never would have imagined the Dolphins as a favorite against the Bills, but 2 straight wins for Miami, winning with Matt Moore to Marshall, a good pass rush, and a reborn Reggie Bush. The line may have gotten a bit too excited considering the wins were against Kansas City and Washington and the 5-4 Bills need this game badly to stay in the playoff hunt, and should find some success against a 25th ranked Miami pass defense. The public is heavy on the Bills with 64.3%, disregarding the momentum into the game, and Buffalo is 1-6-2 ATS last 9 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs. Miami is 7-29 ATS last 36 as home favorites.
The Pick: Buffalo +2 - This one comes down to turnovers and I think the Bills secondary forces Matt Moore into some bad decisions.
Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore: The Bengals have looked like the better team this season, but the Ravens are the more talented team, and have been unpredictable this season, but the loss of leader Ray Lewis is sure to hurt them, while the Bengals will likely miss Dalton's top target AJ Green. Cincy gave the Steelers a good fight last week, while the Ravens lost to Seattle, a team pulling off numerous upsets. The Ravens have struggled on offense and Cincy has a top ranked defense, and this should be a low scoring game. Bengals are 7-2 ATS this season and 57.6% of the public betting that way. Bengals are 10-2 ATS last 12, while Ravens are 9-4 ATS last 13 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Flacco will continue to struggle and even with some key injuries, Bengals are in this one all game.
Jacksonville Pick at Cleveland: Cleveland is 3-6 and lost 3 straight, in quite a few tight games this year, and although ranked 1st against the pass, 30th against the run is worrisome against a team like the Jags that relied on MJD's legs. Jacksonville has won 2 of its last 3, and ranks 5th against the pass, though top CB Mathis done for the season. This could be a battle of FG's, and the Browns do have the advantage there, and also if Cribbs busts a return or two for the field position battle. Jags seeing 58.1% of the betting, and Browns are just 1-6-2 ATS this season.
The Pick: Jags - MJD carries the Jags and actually puts them back in contention
Oakland -1 at Minnesota: Carson Palmer has learned the playbook and lit up the Chargers last week and now faces a Vikings defense ranked 30th against the pass and without Winfield at CB. McFadden is set to miss another one, but Bush has filled in admirably, and the Raiders coming off a long week a bit healthier on Defense. Vikings coming off a short week after a Monday Night blowout loss, and although Ponder has looked good he lacks weapons at WR, but Peterson should keep the Vikings alive in a likely back and forth game. The Raiders are the less disciplined team, turning it over twice as much as the Vikings and penalized the most in the league. The public likes the Raiders with 65.86%, although Oakland is 0-6 ATS last 6 on turf, but 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road. Vikings are 2-8-1 ATS against winning record teams, and the Raiders need to win to stay atop the AFC West.
The Pick: Raiders -1
Carolina +6.5 at Detroit: The Panthers looked terrible last week as favorites against the Titans, and come into this one as underdogs on the road against a high powered Lions team that has struggled recently. Lions look to bounce back from a big loss to the Bears and have lost 3 of 4, but to top contenders, which Carolina is not. The Lions are ranked 4th against the pass, so Newton could struggle in a loud stadium with a fierce Lions pass rush. Detroit is seeing 66% of the public action, and are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home, while Carolina is 1-5 ATS last 6 on road. Detroit may be looking ahead to the Thanksgiving showdown with the Packers, so potentially a trap game.
The Pick: Detroit -6.5
Tampa Bay +14.5 at Green Bay: The Pack have won 9 straight and this is the ultimate trap game ahead of the Thanksgiving game with the Lions. Green Bay is 31st against the pass and although Freeman is not living up to last year's performance he can turn it on and make plays. Tampa is ranked 28th against the pass and 29th against the run, not good news against the league's best QB, and lost 37-9 to Houston last week. 70.6% of the public betting Green Bay, a team 12-3-1 last 16 ATS as home favorites. Bucs are surprisingly 12-3-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Bucs +14.5 - Packers could lose focus in this one and Tampa can find a way to keep it close.
Dallas -8 at Washington: The 5-4 Cowboys are looking much better lately as they get healthier and an easy schedule to make a run for a playoff berth. Skins are terrible, losing 5 straight, and have no QB and have lost a lot of players to injury for the season. Rex is going to have pressure in his face all day with two rookies starting on the O-Line and will make turnovers. Dallas with 56.86% of the public bets, and are just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as road favorites, while Skins are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. NFC East opponents.
The Pick: Dallas -8
Arizona +10 at San Fran.: The pesky Cardinals have won two in a row, maybe Kolb was not the answer and Skeleton was, and have lost some close ones as well this year, running the ball well and making some timely defensive plays. SF has looked great, although tends to stay in tight games, controlling the clock with the running game and Gore banged up, also could be looking ahead to Thursday night showdown against the Ravens. Fitzgerald should have a big game against a susceptible pass defense. The 49ers seeing 59.5% of the action and have owned the Cards in the last 3 match-ups. 49ers are 8-0 ATS last 8 as favorites, and Cards just 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: 49ers -10 - The underdog play looks sexy here, but SF is a much improved team and doubt the Cardinals can do much against them in this one.
Seattle +3 at St. Louis: The Rams have won 2 of 3 and playing better with Steven Jackson still a beast, and Chris Long leading an aggressive defense, also new weapon Brandon Lloyd helping Sam Bradford. Rams rank last against the run and Lynch has been reborn in Seattle. Rams lost starting left tackle in a freak injury this week, and could play a factor. Seattle is 3-6 and coming off a big win against the Ravens, but tend to struggle on the road, but St Louis not a hostile environment. St Louis seeing 58.5% of the bets, and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, but just 7-20-1 last 28 ATS as road underdogs. Rams are 7-16-1 ATS as home favorites and 2-8 ATS last 10 overall.
The Pick: Seattle +3
Tennessee +6.5 at Atlanta: A stupid coaching decision cost the Falcons a big game last week, and cost me a parlay. Titans coming off a dominating win in which CJ2K finally showed up to play. Atlanta can stop the run and Tennessee cannot, the difference in this one and the home field advantage. Atlanta is seeing 67.2% of the public action, a bit heavy for a team that is overvalued in the public due to last year's performance. Titans are 14-5 ATS last 19 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Atlanta is 8-2 ATS last 10 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Atlanta -6.5
San Diego +4 at Chicago: This one could be high scoring, Bears struggle against the pass and Chargers struggle against the run, big days for Rivers and Forte. Bears are looking like an elite team winning 4 straight and putting away its offensive line woes from earlier this season. Chargers coming off a long week and realize they need a big road win with the AFC West a tight race and they did give the Packers a handful, but it was at home and weather could play a factor. Chicago has the public's attention with 63.75% of the action, though a history of having big let-down games. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, while Chargers are 22-8-3 ATS last 33 as underdogs, though just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 after an ATS loss.
The Pick: Da Bears -4
Philadelphia +5.5 at NY Giants: The Eagles have looked terrible with all their stars in the lineup, so this week without Vick and Maclin it could get ugly. The 6-3 Giants will look to deliver the death blow to the Eagles season at home. Giants seeing 65.5% of the public action, and likely will be without Bradshaw again this week. Eagles are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, and 13-5 ATS last 18 as road dogs. Giants are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 as home favorites and 3-12 ATS last 15 in Week 11 games, so some statistical trends favor an Eagles cover and it would also shock the public, which has been the rule of thumb this year.
The Pick: Giants -5.5 - NY's sloppy performance against Seattle is still in my mind, hopefully it does not happen again.
KC Chiefs +15 at New England Pats: How do you analyze a game where Tyler Palko makes his first NFL start and it is in New England on MNF? Pats dominated the Jets last week and look set for a strong finish with an easy schedule, NFL always seems to be in their corner. Chiefs are not too bad defensively, but are starting to fall apart at the seams after losses to Denver and Miami. Pats seeing 76.% of the public action, this week's heaviest favorite and trend. Chiefs has some trends in their favor, 11-2 ATS last 13 as 10.5 or greater underdogs and 5-0 ATS last 5 as dogs. Pats are 3-15 ATS last 18 as 10.5 or greater favorites, so trends favor a cover. Last time these two teams played the Chiefs ended Tom Brady's season.
The Pick: Chiefs +15 - KC likes playing the role of underdogs, and Palko could surprise some people against the leagues worst pass defense.
The Pick: Buffalo +2 - This one comes down to turnovers and I think the Bills secondary forces Matt Moore into some bad decisions.
Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore: The Bengals have looked like the better team this season, but the Ravens are the more talented team, and have been unpredictable this season, but the loss of leader Ray Lewis is sure to hurt them, while the Bengals will likely miss Dalton's top target AJ Green. Cincy gave the Steelers a good fight last week, while the Ravens lost to Seattle, a team pulling off numerous upsets. The Ravens have struggled on offense and Cincy has a top ranked defense, and this should be a low scoring game. Bengals are 7-2 ATS this season and 57.6% of the public betting that way. Bengals are 10-2 ATS last 12, while Ravens are 9-4 ATS last 13 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Flacco will continue to struggle and even with some key injuries, Bengals are in this one all game.
Jacksonville Pick at Cleveland: Cleveland is 3-6 and lost 3 straight, in quite a few tight games this year, and although ranked 1st against the pass, 30th against the run is worrisome against a team like the Jags that relied on MJD's legs. Jacksonville has won 2 of its last 3, and ranks 5th against the pass, though top CB Mathis done for the season. This could be a battle of FG's, and the Browns do have the advantage there, and also if Cribbs busts a return or two for the field position battle. Jags seeing 58.1% of the betting, and Browns are just 1-6-2 ATS this season.
The Pick: Jags - MJD carries the Jags and actually puts them back in contention
Oakland -1 at Minnesota: Carson Palmer has learned the playbook and lit up the Chargers last week and now faces a Vikings defense ranked 30th against the pass and without Winfield at CB. McFadden is set to miss another one, but Bush has filled in admirably, and the Raiders coming off a long week a bit healthier on Defense. Vikings coming off a short week after a Monday Night blowout loss, and although Ponder has looked good he lacks weapons at WR, but Peterson should keep the Vikings alive in a likely back and forth game. The Raiders are the less disciplined team, turning it over twice as much as the Vikings and penalized the most in the league. The public likes the Raiders with 65.86%, although Oakland is 0-6 ATS last 6 on turf, but 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road. Vikings are 2-8-1 ATS against winning record teams, and the Raiders need to win to stay atop the AFC West.
The Pick: Raiders -1
Carolina +6.5 at Detroit: The Panthers looked terrible last week as favorites against the Titans, and come into this one as underdogs on the road against a high powered Lions team that has struggled recently. Lions look to bounce back from a big loss to the Bears and have lost 3 of 4, but to top contenders, which Carolina is not. The Lions are ranked 4th against the pass, so Newton could struggle in a loud stadium with a fierce Lions pass rush. Detroit is seeing 66% of the public action, and are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home, while Carolina is 1-5 ATS last 6 on road. Detroit may be looking ahead to the Thanksgiving showdown with the Packers, so potentially a trap game.
The Pick: Detroit -6.5
Tampa Bay +14.5 at Green Bay: The Pack have won 9 straight and this is the ultimate trap game ahead of the Thanksgiving game with the Lions. Green Bay is 31st against the pass and although Freeman is not living up to last year's performance he can turn it on and make plays. Tampa is ranked 28th against the pass and 29th against the run, not good news against the league's best QB, and lost 37-9 to Houston last week. 70.6% of the public betting Green Bay, a team 12-3-1 last 16 ATS as home favorites. Bucs are surprisingly 12-3-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Bucs +14.5 - Packers could lose focus in this one and Tampa can find a way to keep it close.
Dallas -8 at Washington: The 5-4 Cowboys are looking much better lately as they get healthier and an easy schedule to make a run for a playoff berth. Skins are terrible, losing 5 straight, and have no QB and have lost a lot of players to injury for the season. Rex is going to have pressure in his face all day with two rookies starting on the O-Line and will make turnovers. Dallas with 56.86% of the public bets, and are just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as road favorites, while Skins are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. NFC East opponents.
The Pick: Dallas -8
Arizona +10 at San Fran.: The pesky Cardinals have won two in a row, maybe Kolb was not the answer and Skeleton was, and have lost some close ones as well this year, running the ball well and making some timely defensive plays. SF has looked great, although tends to stay in tight games, controlling the clock with the running game and Gore banged up, also could be looking ahead to Thursday night showdown against the Ravens. Fitzgerald should have a big game against a susceptible pass defense. The 49ers seeing 59.5% of the action and have owned the Cards in the last 3 match-ups. 49ers are 8-0 ATS last 8 as favorites, and Cards just 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: 49ers -10 - The underdog play looks sexy here, but SF is a much improved team and doubt the Cardinals can do much against them in this one.
Seattle +3 at St. Louis: The Rams have won 2 of 3 and playing better with Steven Jackson still a beast, and Chris Long leading an aggressive defense, also new weapon Brandon Lloyd helping Sam Bradford. Rams rank last against the run and Lynch has been reborn in Seattle. Rams lost starting left tackle in a freak injury this week, and could play a factor. Seattle is 3-6 and coming off a big win against the Ravens, but tend to struggle on the road, but St Louis not a hostile environment. St Louis seeing 58.5% of the bets, and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, but just 7-20-1 last 28 ATS as road underdogs. Rams are 7-16-1 ATS as home favorites and 2-8 ATS last 10 overall.
The Pick: Seattle +3
Tennessee +6.5 at Atlanta: A stupid coaching decision cost the Falcons a big game last week, and cost me a parlay. Titans coming off a dominating win in which CJ2K finally showed up to play. Atlanta can stop the run and Tennessee cannot, the difference in this one and the home field advantage. Atlanta is seeing 67.2% of the public action, a bit heavy for a team that is overvalued in the public due to last year's performance. Titans are 14-5 ATS last 19 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Atlanta is 8-2 ATS last 10 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Atlanta -6.5
San Diego +4 at Chicago: This one could be high scoring, Bears struggle against the pass and Chargers struggle against the run, big days for Rivers and Forte. Bears are looking like an elite team winning 4 straight and putting away its offensive line woes from earlier this season. Chargers coming off a long week and realize they need a big road win with the AFC West a tight race and they did give the Packers a handful, but it was at home and weather could play a factor. Chicago has the public's attention with 63.75% of the action, though a history of having big let-down games. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, while Chargers are 22-8-3 ATS last 33 as underdogs, though just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 after an ATS loss.
The Pick: Da Bears -4
Philadelphia +5.5 at NY Giants: The Eagles have looked terrible with all their stars in the lineup, so this week without Vick and Maclin it could get ugly. The 6-3 Giants will look to deliver the death blow to the Eagles season at home. Giants seeing 65.5% of the public action, and likely will be without Bradshaw again this week. Eagles are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, and 13-5 ATS last 18 as road dogs. Giants are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 as home favorites and 3-12 ATS last 15 in Week 11 games, so some statistical trends favor an Eagles cover and it would also shock the public, which has been the rule of thumb this year.
The Pick: Giants -5.5 - NY's sloppy performance against Seattle is still in my mind, hopefully it does not happen again.
KC Chiefs +15 at New England Pats: How do you analyze a game where Tyler Palko makes his first NFL start and it is in New England on MNF? Pats dominated the Jets last week and look set for a strong finish with an easy schedule, NFL always seems to be in their corner. Chiefs are not too bad defensively, but are starting to fall apart at the seams after losses to Denver and Miami. Pats seeing 76.% of the public action, this week's heaviest favorite and trend. Chiefs has some trends in their favor, 11-2 ATS last 13 as 10.5 or greater underdogs and 5-0 ATS last 5 as dogs. Pats are 3-15 ATS last 18 as 10.5 or greater favorites, so trends favor a cover. Last time these two teams played the Chiefs ended Tom Brady's season.
The Pick: Chiefs +15 - KC likes playing the role of underdogs, and Palko could surprise some people against the leagues worst pass defense.
Friday, November 18, 2011
College Football 10-Pack
A pretty weak schedule this week, but a week where I see a few potential upsets on the card:
Virginia +17 at FSU: The Seminoles at home and have won 5 in a row, a ferocious defense and EJ Manuel getting it done, and at #25 I think FSU is one of the most under-rated teams in the country. Virginia is a quality team that has won 5 of its last 6, also playing solid defense. Both teams are 5-5 ATS this season and 52.5% of the public betting the Cavaliers to cover, a team that is 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 10.5 or more points. Virginia still has title hopes, but FSU is 14-2 last 16 vs. Virginia. FSU has the 4th best run defense and Virginia has averaged 187.6 yards a game, so a big match-up.
The Pick: Virginia +17 - Low Scoring and Clock will be Running Favors a Cover for a Virginia Team Building Confidence
Nebraska +3.5 at Michigan: A Big 10 showdown with Nebraska heading to Michigan, #16 at #18. Nebraska tends to keep games close playing defense and running the football. Michigan has not looked all that impressive against quality teams this year and could struggle again this week. Nebraska is 3-6-1 ATS this season and Michigan is 7-3, but 52.6% of public betting Nebraska. Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, while Michigan is 3-13 ATS last 16 games in November and 7-19 ATS last 26 vs. winning record teams.
The Pick: Nebraska +3.5 and Likely Wins Outright
Clemson -8 at NC St: Clemson has really struggled recently after looking to be a top contender early in the season, and heads to NC St. in a potential trap game before the big showdown with South Carolina. NC. St has scored only 23 points in total the last 3 games. Clemson is 7-3 ATS this season and 72.5% of the public betting the Tigers. The line did open at -10 and has been pushed down. NC St. is 8-2-1 last 11 at home as an underdog ATS and 17-5-1 last 23 ATS following a loss.
The Pick: NC. St +8 - Statistical Trends and Potential Looking Ahead Favor a Cover
Miami -1 at South Florida: The 5-5 Canes have lost 2 of the last 3 and head to South Florida to face a tough Bulls team that stands 5-4, but 4-0 outside its conference. Miami has lost a lot of close games to some great teams this year, and has the advantage in this one. The public is betting 59.75% on Miami, and South Florida is 2-6 ATS last 8 at home. South Florida boasts the nations 17th best offense and BJ Daniels a dual threat at QB, but Miami, which has struggled to force turnovers, will be hungry to win this and make a bowl game.
The Pick: Miami -1
Oklahoma -16 at Baylor: Baylor has struggled against the better Big 12 teams, losses to A&M and Oklahoma St by 27 and 35 points respectively. Baylor has the fire-power on offense, but can not stop anyone. Oklahoma has plenty of weapons, although recent injuries to its top RB and WR leave them without some key components, and another potential trap game as they look ahead to the showdown with Oklahoma St. Sooners are seeing 67% of the betting action, and the line opened at -13 being pushed to -16 now. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS last 12 as 10.5 or more point favorites, while Baylor is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or more point underdogs, but just 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Oklahoma -16 - Take care of business, big one next week
USC +15 at Oregon: The Ducks upset Stanford with a 23 point win last week and are in rhythm after a slow start to the season. USC is a strong 8-2 and looking to play spoiler, a team that lost to Stanford in 3 OT's. Action is split with just 50.9% on Oregon in this one, and this line opened at -16.5. USC is 8-2 ATS last 10 on road, and there could be snow in this one to slow down the Ducks. Oregon is 19-7-2 last 28 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: USC +15 - Game of the Week and Should be Down to the Wire
Boise St -19 at SD. St: This game will come down to the matter of whether Boise St. sees any reason to play hard now, after suffering a crushing defeat to TCU last weekend. Boise has not been beating teams by wide margins, and SD. St. is no slouch, especially at home, a team that lost 27-14 to TCU. Boise St is just 4-5 ATS this season and 68% of public betting them to cover the spread. Boise St. is 8-2 ATS last 10 as road favorite of 10.5 or more, and 21-6 ATS last 27 on road overall. Aztecs are just 4-11 ATS last 15 as home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Pick: San Diego St. +19
Wisconsin -14.5 at Illinois: The 8-2 Badgers on the road to face a feisty Illinois team that has struggled of late. Wisconsin has dominated teams at times, but lost against the two better teams in Mich. St and Ohio St. Illinois has lost 4 straight, but by just 10, 7, 3, and then 17 points last week vs. Michigan. 72.8% of the public betting Wisconsin in this one, and Badgers are 8-1-1 last 10 as 10.5 or more point favorite, but just 3-11 ATS last 14 as road favorite of 10.5 or more points. Illini are 9-1 ATS last 10 as underdogs.
The Pick: Wisconsin -14.5 - Despite Trends Saying Bet Fighting Illini, I think they are packing it in for the year
Maryland +10.5 at Wake Forest: Maryland is 2-8 and 0-2 on the road, 6 straight losses, and since losing two close ones to G. Tech and Clemson, quality teams, they have really struggled. Wake Forest is 5-5 but has lost 3 straight, but should have beaten #9 ranked Clemson last week, and has played well this season. 59.3% of bets on Wake Forest, who are 6-4 ATS this season, Maryland just 2-8 ATS. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS last 5 at home.
The Pick: Wake Forest -10.5
Penn St +6.5 at Ohio St: The 8-2 Penn St. Nittany Lions head to Ohio St for a rivalry game, still plenty of off the field distractions for the team, although only lost by 3 to Nebraska last week and ranked 3rd in points against, and facing a Buckeyes teams that has lacked offense. Ohio St. tends to stay in close games, and has looked impressive against ranked teams, but weak against bad teams. Ohio St. with 60% of the betting action right now, and Penn St. is just 2-7-1 ATS this season. Penn St. is 3-12-1 last 16 ATS as underdogs, while Ohio St is 17-4 ATS last 21 at home.
The Pick: Ohio St -6.5
Virginia +17 at FSU: The Seminoles at home and have won 5 in a row, a ferocious defense and EJ Manuel getting it done, and at #25 I think FSU is one of the most under-rated teams in the country. Virginia is a quality team that has won 5 of its last 6, also playing solid defense. Both teams are 5-5 ATS this season and 52.5% of the public betting the Cavaliers to cover, a team that is 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 10.5 or more points. Virginia still has title hopes, but FSU is 14-2 last 16 vs. Virginia. FSU has the 4th best run defense and Virginia has averaged 187.6 yards a game, so a big match-up.
The Pick: Virginia +17 - Low Scoring and Clock will be Running Favors a Cover for a Virginia Team Building Confidence
Nebraska +3.5 at Michigan: A Big 10 showdown with Nebraska heading to Michigan, #16 at #18. Nebraska tends to keep games close playing defense and running the football. Michigan has not looked all that impressive against quality teams this year and could struggle again this week. Nebraska is 3-6-1 ATS this season and Michigan is 7-3, but 52.6% of public betting Nebraska. Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, while Michigan is 3-13 ATS last 16 games in November and 7-19 ATS last 26 vs. winning record teams.
The Pick: Nebraska +3.5 and Likely Wins Outright
Clemson -8 at NC St: Clemson has really struggled recently after looking to be a top contender early in the season, and heads to NC St. in a potential trap game before the big showdown with South Carolina. NC. St has scored only 23 points in total the last 3 games. Clemson is 7-3 ATS this season and 72.5% of the public betting the Tigers. The line did open at -10 and has been pushed down. NC St. is 8-2-1 last 11 at home as an underdog ATS and 17-5-1 last 23 ATS following a loss.
The Pick: NC. St +8 - Statistical Trends and Potential Looking Ahead Favor a Cover
Miami -1 at South Florida: The 5-5 Canes have lost 2 of the last 3 and head to South Florida to face a tough Bulls team that stands 5-4, but 4-0 outside its conference. Miami has lost a lot of close games to some great teams this year, and has the advantage in this one. The public is betting 59.75% on Miami, and South Florida is 2-6 ATS last 8 at home. South Florida boasts the nations 17th best offense and BJ Daniels a dual threat at QB, but Miami, which has struggled to force turnovers, will be hungry to win this and make a bowl game.
The Pick: Miami -1
Oklahoma -16 at Baylor: Baylor has struggled against the better Big 12 teams, losses to A&M and Oklahoma St by 27 and 35 points respectively. Baylor has the fire-power on offense, but can not stop anyone. Oklahoma has plenty of weapons, although recent injuries to its top RB and WR leave them without some key components, and another potential trap game as they look ahead to the showdown with Oklahoma St. Sooners are seeing 67% of the betting action, and the line opened at -13 being pushed to -16 now. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS last 12 as 10.5 or more point favorites, while Baylor is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or more point underdogs, but just 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Oklahoma -16 - Take care of business, big one next week
USC +15 at Oregon: The Ducks upset Stanford with a 23 point win last week and are in rhythm after a slow start to the season. USC is a strong 8-2 and looking to play spoiler, a team that lost to Stanford in 3 OT's. Action is split with just 50.9% on Oregon in this one, and this line opened at -16.5. USC is 8-2 ATS last 10 on road, and there could be snow in this one to slow down the Ducks. Oregon is 19-7-2 last 28 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: USC +15 - Game of the Week and Should be Down to the Wire
Boise St -19 at SD. St: This game will come down to the matter of whether Boise St. sees any reason to play hard now, after suffering a crushing defeat to TCU last weekend. Boise has not been beating teams by wide margins, and SD. St. is no slouch, especially at home, a team that lost 27-14 to TCU. Boise St is just 4-5 ATS this season and 68% of public betting them to cover the spread. Boise St. is 8-2 ATS last 10 as road favorite of 10.5 or more, and 21-6 ATS last 27 on road overall. Aztecs are just 4-11 ATS last 15 as home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Pick: San Diego St. +19
Wisconsin -14.5 at Illinois: The 8-2 Badgers on the road to face a feisty Illinois team that has struggled of late. Wisconsin has dominated teams at times, but lost against the two better teams in Mich. St and Ohio St. Illinois has lost 4 straight, but by just 10, 7, 3, and then 17 points last week vs. Michigan. 72.8% of the public betting Wisconsin in this one, and Badgers are 8-1-1 last 10 as 10.5 or more point favorite, but just 3-11 ATS last 14 as road favorite of 10.5 or more points. Illini are 9-1 ATS last 10 as underdogs.
The Pick: Wisconsin -14.5 - Despite Trends Saying Bet Fighting Illini, I think they are packing it in for the year
Maryland +10.5 at Wake Forest: Maryland is 2-8 and 0-2 on the road, 6 straight losses, and since losing two close ones to G. Tech and Clemson, quality teams, they have really struggled. Wake Forest is 5-5 but has lost 3 straight, but should have beaten #9 ranked Clemson last week, and has played well this season. 59.3% of bets on Wake Forest, who are 6-4 ATS this season, Maryland just 2-8 ATS. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS last 5 at home.
The Pick: Wake Forest -10.5
Penn St +6.5 at Ohio St: The 8-2 Penn St. Nittany Lions head to Ohio St for a rivalry game, still plenty of off the field distractions for the team, although only lost by 3 to Nebraska last week and ranked 3rd in points against, and facing a Buckeyes teams that has lacked offense. Ohio St. tends to stay in close games, and has looked impressive against ranked teams, but weak against bad teams. Ohio St. with 60% of the betting action right now, and Penn St. is just 2-7-1 ATS this season. Penn St. is 3-12-1 last 16 ATS as underdogs, while Ohio St is 17-4 ATS last 21 at home.
The Pick: Ohio St -6.5
Thursday, November 17, 2011
NFL Thursday: Jets and Broncos
The Line: Jets -6 at Broncos (Opened at -5 and was down to -4)
Analysis: The Jets have struggled on the road and coming off a thrashing by the Pats, but head to face Tebow's Broncos that are on a small winning streak, although last week the Broncos only called 8 passing plays. The Broncos will have zero success passing and Ryan's Defense should be able to contain Tebow and hold them to 10 points or fewer. Offensively the Jets are without LT, but look for Sanchez to have some success against a vulnerable Broncos D.
Trends: Jets are just 1-4 ATS last 5 on road, but 5-0 as road favorites. Broncos are 1-8-1 ATS last 10 after an ATS win. The Over is a heavy statistical trend for this one as well.
The Pick: Jets -6 - NY will bounce back strong and needs this one to stay alive, and will expose Tebow, who will be unable to move the ball against the Jets D
Analysis: The Jets have struggled on the road and coming off a thrashing by the Pats, but head to face Tebow's Broncos that are on a small winning streak, although last week the Broncos only called 8 passing plays. The Broncos will have zero success passing and Ryan's Defense should be able to contain Tebow and hold them to 10 points or fewer. Offensively the Jets are without LT, but look for Sanchez to have some success against a vulnerable Broncos D.
Trends: Jets are just 1-4 ATS last 5 on road, but 5-0 as road favorites. Broncos are 1-8-1 ATS last 10 after an ATS win. The Over is a heavy statistical trend for this one as well.
The Pick: Jets -6 - NY will bounce back strong and needs this one to stay alive, and will expose Tebow, who will be unable to move the ball against the Jets D
Sunday, November 13, 2011
NFL Week 10 Additional Wagers
Trends: Sharps betting Chicago, Atlanta, Jets, Pitt, and Seattle; Squares betting Houston, Baltimore and Jacksonville.
6 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser (+550)
Houston +3 vs Tampa
Carolina +3 vs Tenn.
Atlanta +7.5 vs Saints
Giants +10 vs SF 49ers
Buffalo +12 vs Dallas
Steelers +3.5 vs Bengals
3 Team Parlay
Texans -3.5, Rams +3, Falcons +1
Over-Under Picks
Bills/Cowboys Under 48
Texans/Tampa Over 46
Saints/Falcons Under 50
Eagles/Cardinals Over 46.5
Baltimore/Seattle Under 41
6 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser (+550)
Houston +3 vs Tampa
Carolina +3 vs Tenn.
Atlanta +7.5 vs Saints
Giants +10 vs SF 49ers
Buffalo +12 vs Dallas
Steelers +3.5 vs Bengals
3 Team Parlay
Texans -3.5, Rams +3, Falcons +1
Over-Under Picks
Bills/Cowboys Under 48
Texans/Tampa Over 46
Saints/Falcons Under 50
Eagles/Cardinals Over 46.5
Baltimore/Seattle Under 41
Saturday, November 12, 2011
NFL Week 10 Picks
Last week went 9-4 ATS, looking to follow up that effort this week, although a bit worried I am picking so many road teams this week....
Pittsburgh -3 at Cincy: The 6-3 Steelers head to Cincy as favorites, coming off a tough loss to the Ravens, and been involved in a lot of tight games this season. Cincy has been the surprise of the NFL at 6-2 and playing great Defense, but Dalton faces an aggressive Steelers defense, a tough task for any rookie. Big Ben tends to struggle against the Bengals, but has a new weapon in Antonio Brown and is looking great of late. The Bengals wins have also all come against teams in the lower tier of the NFL, aside from the Bills, who are fading. Cincy is 7-1 ATS this season, but 67.8% of the money of the Steelers. Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 as a favorite, and Bengals are 9-0 ATS last 9 vs AFC teams.
The Pick: Steelers -3 - This is the Bengals first real test, and I do not think they can be up to the task.
Denver +3 at KC: Tim Tebow leads the Broncos on the road to face a Chiefs team that just lost to the previously winless Dolphins. Tebow is a terrible QB and unlikely to last long in the league, but he does find a way to keep his team in games. Neither team has much talent on either side of the ball, so it should stay close, 52.8% picking KC thus far. Denver is 1-9-1 last 11 ATS after an ATS win, while Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Denver +3
Jacksonville -3 at Indy: Another boring one here, the winless Colts have been looking worse each week, no production offensively. The Colts also can not stop the run so MJD should have a big game and the Jags should have no issue this week, also a strong defensive team. Jags are seeing 64.55% of the public action, and are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Colts are 13-3-1 last 17 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog.
The Pick: Jags -3
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: The Bills are no longer flying under the radar and struggling in recent weeks, and head to Dallas to face the 4-4 Cowboys that need a win badly. DeMarco Murray has been a bright spot for Dallas and should have no problem against the 27th ranked Bills defense. Buffalo relies on Fred Jackson and Dallas has a run stuffing defense. Buffalo is seeing 63.35% of the betting action, and are 3-0-1 last 4 ATS as underdogs. Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 as a favorite and 2-8 ATS last 10 at home as favorite, so they do not perform against teams they should beat.
The Pick: Buffalo +5.5 - Stats favor a cover and an opportune Bills D will excel against mistake-prone Romo
Houston -3.5 at Tampa Bay: Houston is rolling with 3 straight wins and ranked 2nd against the pass and 4th against the run, winning with D for a change, but still without Andre Johnson this week. Tampa is a tough team to read, tend to stay in games but Freeman not able to have last year's comeback magic. Tampa is ranked near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories, expect a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Houston is seeing 62.5% of bets, and is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Tampa is 5-1 ATS last 6 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, but just 3-14 ATS last 17 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Houston -3 - Expect Texans to blow them out in this one
Tennessee +3 at Carolina: Cam Newton should be well rested coming off the bye and Carolina has been an impressive 2-6, at least on offense, but ranked 28th in stopping the run. Titans have lost 3 of the last 4 and as a dog on the road, this one looks to be a trap, a team struggling to find its identity. 57% of the public betting the Panthers, who are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Titans are 2-6 ATS last 8 as road underdogs.
The Pick: Carolina -3 - The spread was more favorable earlier this week, but expect Carolina to put it all together for a big win and be a factor in the second half of the season.
Washington +4 at Miami: The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the year and Matt Moore looked impressive, while Reggie Bush looks good and they need to get Daniel Thomas back involved. Skins have lost 4 in a row and the QB change has not worked. Miami seeing 54% of the public action, and are a terrible 6-29 ATS last 35 as a home favorite. Skins are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Skins +4 - Ugly game, but a close game
New Orleans -1 at Atlanta: This is a big game for the Falcons at home, a team starting to click with 3 straight wins. Saints are 6-3 and have had some mental letdowns on the road in recent weeks. The teams match-up equally and the Falcons are enjoying the return of Julio Jones who blew up last week. I feel the Saints are struggling on the road due to Payton not on the sidelines and the lack of a running game. Atlanta is seeing 51% of the action, who are 13-6 ATS last 19 on turf. Saints are just 5-11 ATS last 16 in division and 6-15 ATS last 21 after a win.
The Pick: Falcons +1 - Atlanta could run the table and be a real factor in the playoffs
St. Louis +3 at Cleveland: Another lousy game of the schedule, but the Rams come in as a much improved team with Bradford and Jackson back together, deserved a better fate last week. Browns are fighters and keep games close, ranked 1st against the pass, but 30th against the run, so a big day in store for Jackson, and Cleveland is poor offensively. Cleveland seeing 50.85% of the public action, but are just 2-12-1 ATS last 15 overall, while Rams are 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, but 0-6 ATS last 6 on road overall.
The Pick: Rams +3 - St Louis should win this on the back of Steven Jackson
Arizona +14 at Philadelphia: Arizona is just 2-6 but have kept games close with the likes of the Giants and Ravens, while Eagles are a tough team to see as a heavy favorite considering their lack of living up to expectations. The Eagles can not afford to look ahead to next week's match-up against the Giants. Arizona is 29th against the pass, so Eagles should shred them all day. Philly is receiving 54% of the action, but are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as home favorites. Cards are 5-0 ATS last 5 as 10.5 or more point dogs, but just 4-11 ATS last 15 on the road.
The Pick: Cards +14 - Stats favor a cover, but Eagles better win for my suicide pool!
Baltimore -6.5 at Seattle: Seattle is on a 3 game losing streak, including an ugly 6-3 loss to the Browns, but tends to play better at home. Baltimore has looked anything but impressive, but in terms of football talent has a major advantage. Baltimore is a heavy public favorite with 76.85% of the action, although just 4-11 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Seattle is 4-1 ATS last 5 as home underdog, but just 7-19-1 ATS versus teams with winning records.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5 - Some trends favor a Seattle cover, but I do not see how they will score any points.
Detroit +3 at Chicago: The Bears have won 3 in a row, but coming off a short week, while Detroit is coming off a bye week. The Lions two losses are against two of the better teams in the league, and should force a lot of pressure on Cutler, but are 29th against the run, so Forte should have another big game. The Lions are the best in the league on 3rd down defense and have turned the ball over the fewest in the league. Detroit with a slight bias with 50.7% of the public action, and are 11-3-1 last 15 ATS against the NFC. BEars are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite.
The Pick: Lions +3 - I think Detroit can win this one, but lock down this spread at +3 as it is moving at some shops.
NY Giants +3.5 at San Francisco: The 7-1 49ers at home, a team that finds a way to win every week and ranks 6th rushing the ball and 1st against the run, an old-school team. Giants are a team on the rise, 3 straight including an upset of the Pats last week, relies heavily on passing the ball and struggles against the run. Both these teams are strong this season, feels like the early 90's. SF is susceptible against the pass and Eli should have all his weapons this week. Giants are seeing 57.4% of the public action, but are just 4-11 last 15 ATS on grass, though 14-6 ATS last 20 as road underdogs. 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS last 9 overall.
The Pick: Giants +3.5 - This one should come down to the wire....
New England +1 at NY Jets: The Patriots are no longer a dominant force, a team making turnovers and last in the league against the pass, 2 straight losses. Jets are finally putting things together and Revis should lock down Welker, 3 straight wins and now at home in a huge game. Pats are seeing 61.7% of teh public betting, but are just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. Jets are 19-9 ATS last 28 vs AFC opponents, though 2-5 ATS last 7 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Jets -1 - They win and run the table into the playoffs...
Minnesota +13 at Green Bay: Vikings are coming off a bye and Ponder has looked good, playing the Packers just a couple weeks back and lost by 6. It is the worst match-up for the Vikings as they are good running the ball and on run defense, while Packers excel at passing on offense and run defense. Green Bay is seeing 61.4% of the betting action, and are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home, but just 7-16-2 ATS last 25 as a favorite of 10.5 or more. Vikings are 5-11 ATS last 16 on the road.
The Pick: Packers -13 - Too much offense and shine in the spotlight of MNF
Pittsburgh -3 at Cincy: The 6-3 Steelers head to Cincy as favorites, coming off a tough loss to the Ravens, and been involved in a lot of tight games this season. Cincy has been the surprise of the NFL at 6-2 and playing great Defense, but Dalton faces an aggressive Steelers defense, a tough task for any rookie. Big Ben tends to struggle against the Bengals, but has a new weapon in Antonio Brown and is looking great of late. The Bengals wins have also all come against teams in the lower tier of the NFL, aside from the Bills, who are fading. Cincy is 7-1 ATS this season, but 67.8% of the money of the Steelers. Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 as a favorite, and Bengals are 9-0 ATS last 9 vs AFC teams.
The Pick: Steelers -3 - This is the Bengals first real test, and I do not think they can be up to the task.
Denver +3 at KC: Tim Tebow leads the Broncos on the road to face a Chiefs team that just lost to the previously winless Dolphins. Tebow is a terrible QB and unlikely to last long in the league, but he does find a way to keep his team in games. Neither team has much talent on either side of the ball, so it should stay close, 52.8% picking KC thus far. Denver is 1-9-1 last 11 ATS after an ATS win, while Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Denver +3
Jacksonville -3 at Indy: Another boring one here, the winless Colts have been looking worse each week, no production offensively. The Colts also can not stop the run so MJD should have a big game and the Jags should have no issue this week, also a strong defensive team. Jags are seeing 64.55% of the public action, and are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Colts are 13-3-1 last 17 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog.
The Pick: Jags -3
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: The Bills are no longer flying under the radar and struggling in recent weeks, and head to Dallas to face the 4-4 Cowboys that need a win badly. DeMarco Murray has been a bright spot for Dallas and should have no problem against the 27th ranked Bills defense. Buffalo relies on Fred Jackson and Dallas has a run stuffing defense. Buffalo is seeing 63.35% of the betting action, and are 3-0-1 last 4 ATS as underdogs. Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 as a favorite and 2-8 ATS last 10 at home as favorite, so they do not perform against teams they should beat.
The Pick: Buffalo +5.5 - Stats favor a cover and an opportune Bills D will excel against mistake-prone Romo
Houston -3.5 at Tampa Bay: Houston is rolling with 3 straight wins and ranked 2nd against the pass and 4th against the run, winning with D for a change, but still without Andre Johnson this week. Tampa is a tough team to read, tend to stay in games but Freeman not able to have last year's comeback magic. Tampa is ranked near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories, expect a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Houston is seeing 62.5% of bets, and is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Tampa is 5-1 ATS last 6 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, but just 3-14 ATS last 17 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Houston -3 - Expect Texans to blow them out in this one
Tennessee +3 at Carolina: Cam Newton should be well rested coming off the bye and Carolina has been an impressive 2-6, at least on offense, but ranked 28th in stopping the run. Titans have lost 3 of the last 4 and as a dog on the road, this one looks to be a trap, a team struggling to find its identity. 57% of the public betting the Panthers, who are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Titans are 2-6 ATS last 8 as road underdogs.
The Pick: Carolina -3 - The spread was more favorable earlier this week, but expect Carolina to put it all together for a big win and be a factor in the second half of the season.
Washington +4 at Miami: The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the year and Matt Moore looked impressive, while Reggie Bush looks good and they need to get Daniel Thomas back involved. Skins have lost 4 in a row and the QB change has not worked. Miami seeing 54% of the public action, and are a terrible 6-29 ATS last 35 as a home favorite. Skins are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Skins +4 - Ugly game, but a close game
New Orleans -1 at Atlanta: This is a big game for the Falcons at home, a team starting to click with 3 straight wins. Saints are 6-3 and have had some mental letdowns on the road in recent weeks. The teams match-up equally and the Falcons are enjoying the return of Julio Jones who blew up last week. I feel the Saints are struggling on the road due to Payton not on the sidelines and the lack of a running game. Atlanta is seeing 51% of the action, who are 13-6 ATS last 19 on turf. Saints are just 5-11 ATS last 16 in division and 6-15 ATS last 21 after a win.
The Pick: Falcons +1 - Atlanta could run the table and be a real factor in the playoffs
St. Louis +3 at Cleveland: Another lousy game of the schedule, but the Rams come in as a much improved team with Bradford and Jackson back together, deserved a better fate last week. Browns are fighters and keep games close, ranked 1st against the pass, but 30th against the run, so a big day in store for Jackson, and Cleveland is poor offensively. Cleveland seeing 50.85% of the public action, but are just 2-12-1 ATS last 15 overall, while Rams are 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, but 0-6 ATS last 6 on road overall.
The Pick: Rams +3 - St Louis should win this on the back of Steven Jackson
Arizona +14 at Philadelphia: Arizona is just 2-6 but have kept games close with the likes of the Giants and Ravens, while Eagles are a tough team to see as a heavy favorite considering their lack of living up to expectations. The Eagles can not afford to look ahead to next week's match-up against the Giants. Arizona is 29th against the pass, so Eagles should shred them all day. Philly is receiving 54% of the action, but are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as home favorites. Cards are 5-0 ATS last 5 as 10.5 or more point dogs, but just 4-11 ATS last 15 on the road.
The Pick: Cards +14 - Stats favor a cover, but Eagles better win for my suicide pool!
Baltimore -6.5 at Seattle: Seattle is on a 3 game losing streak, including an ugly 6-3 loss to the Browns, but tends to play better at home. Baltimore has looked anything but impressive, but in terms of football talent has a major advantage. Baltimore is a heavy public favorite with 76.85% of the action, although just 4-11 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Seattle is 4-1 ATS last 5 as home underdog, but just 7-19-1 ATS versus teams with winning records.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5 - Some trends favor a Seattle cover, but I do not see how they will score any points.
Detroit +3 at Chicago: The Bears have won 3 in a row, but coming off a short week, while Detroit is coming off a bye week. The Lions two losses are against two of the better teams in the league, and should force a lot of pressure on Cutler, but are 29th against the run, so Forte should have another big game. The Lions are the best in the league on 3rd down defense and have turned the ball over the fewest in the league. Detroit with a slight bias with 50.7% of the public action, and are 11-3-1 last 15 ATS against the NFC. BEars are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite.
The Pick: Lions +3 - I think Detroit can win this one, but lock down this spread at +3 as it is moving at some shops.
NY Giants +3.5 at San Francisco: The 7-1 49ers at home, a team that finds a way to win every week and ranks 6th rushing the ball and 1st against the run, an old-school team. Giants are a team on the rise, 3 straight including an upset of the Pats last week, relies heavily on passing the ball and struggles against the run. Both these teams are strong this season, feels like the early 90's. SF is susceptible against the pass and Eli should have all his weapons this week. Giants are seeing 57.4% of the public action, but are just 4-11 last 15 ATS on grass, though 14-6 ATS last 20 as road underdogs. 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS last 9 overall.
The Pick: Giants +3.5 - This one should come down to the wire....
New England +1 at NY Jets: The Patriots are no longer a dominant force, a team making turnovers and last in the league against the pass, 2 straight losses. Jets are finally putting things together and Revis should lock down Welker, 3 straight wins and now at home in a huge game. Pats are seeing 61.7% of teh public betting, but are just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. Jets are 19-9 ATS last 28 vs AFC opponents, though 2-5 ATS last 7 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Jets -1 - They win and run the table into the playoffs...
Minnesota +13 at Green Bay: Vikings are coming off a bye and Ponder has looked good, playing the Packers just a couple weeks back and lost by 6. It is the worst match-up for the Vikings as they are good running the ball and on run defense, while Packers excel at passing on offense and run defense. Green Bay is seeing 61.4% of the betting action, and are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home, but just 7-16-2 ATS last 25 as a favorite of 10.5 or more. Vikings are 5-11 ATS last 16 on the road.
The Pick: Packers -13 - Too much offense and shine in the spotlight of MNF
College Football Additional Wagers
Along with the spread picks, have a few Teasers and Over-Under Plays
6 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser (+55)
Ohio St -2 vs Purdue
Florida +10 vs South Carolina
Kansas St +11.5 vs Texas A&M
Florida St. -2.5 vs Miami
Georgia -5.5 vs Auburn
Iowa +9.5 vs Mich. St.
6 Team, 6 Point (+600)
Missouri +7.5 vs Texas
Baylor -15 vs Kansas
Illinois +7 vs Michigan
TCU +22 vs Boise St
Arkansas -9 vs Tennessee
Oregon +9.5 vs Stanford
Over-Under Picks
Wake Forest / Clemson Under 62
Nebraska / Penn St. Under 41
Michigan St / Iowa Under 47
Florida / South Carolina Over 41
Arizona St / Washington St Over 61
6 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser (+55)
Ohio St -2 vs Purdue
Florida +10 vs South Carolina
Kansas St +11.5 vs Texas A&M
Florida St. -2.5 vs Miami
Georgia -5.5 vs Auburn
Iowa +9.5 vs Mich. St.
6 Team, 6 Point (+600)
Missouri +7.5 vs Texas
Baylor -15 vs Kansas
Illinois +7 vs Michigan
TCU +22 vs Boise St
Arkansas -9 vs Tennessee
Oregon +9.5 vs Stanford
Over-Under Picks
Wake Forest / Clemson Under 62
Nebraska / Penn St. Under 41
Michigan St / Iowa Under 47
Florida / South Carolina Over 41
Arizona St / Washington St Over 61
Friday, November 11, 2011
College Football 12 Pack - Week 10
Last week was an unusual showing, losing my first 5 picks and then winning the next 5, but did not have much time to look at the games. We are getting near the end of the season, man does time fly!
Texas -1.5 at Missouri: Texas has been playing well, even the loss to Oklahoma St., and then the last two weeks with big wins. Missouri has been in a ton of close games this year, but only beat Texas A&M, losing to Baylor, Oklahoma St, K-St. and Oklahoma. Texas is the 11th best rushing team and Missouri is 102nd against the pass and 58th against the run. Texas is 8th against the run and strong on 3rd down. The public has 65.3% of the action on Texas, and is 4-0 ATS last 4 as favorite, while Missouri is 1-4 ATS last 5 as home underdog.
The Pick: Texas -1.5
Nebraska -3.5 at Penn St.: This game is receiving a lot of attention, and not because it could decide the Big Ten, more on the scandal at Penn St. Penn St is 100th in scoring offense but 3rd in scoring defense, and 7 straight wins, most by small margins. Nebraska was upset at home by Northwestern last week, after having beat Michigan St the week prior, so a difficult team to read. Expect a very low scoring game with a lot of punting. Nebraska is seeing 69.75% of the action, and are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road favorite. Penn St. is 2-7 ATS last 9 after a win, and 0-4 ATS last 4 as road underdog.
The Pick: Nebraska -3.5 - Penn St. could try and win one for Joe Pa, but I think this media activity all week took many of their minds off football and Nebraska will take it to them.
Oklahoma St -19 at Texas Tech: This should be a fun one, a shootout again for Oklahoma St., sporting a 9-0 record and ranked 2nd in the country. Oklahoma St has been far less impressive in road games. Texas Tech has lost 4 of 5, that 1 win a shocking upset of Oklahoma, so a team that makes no sense at this point, losing by 34 to Iowa St and 32 to Texas. The Cowboys seeing 58.2% of the bets, and are 28-10 ATS last 38 as 10.5 or more favorite. Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog and 10-2-1 ATS last 13 after an ATS loss.
The Pick: Oklahoma St -19 - Stats favor an underdog cover, but OK St. knows it needs to run up scores for the BCS standings
Michigan St. -3 at Iowa: Michigan St. with just a 7 point win vs. Minnesota last week seems to be calling it a season early after the loss to Nebraska. Iowa is coming off an upset at home vs. Michigan and looking for the Michigan-Sweep this week. Iowa's strength is passing and Mich. St is 2nd against the pass. Spartans are seeing 58.85% of the action right now, and are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road favorite. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as home underdog, but just 1-7 ATS last 8 after a win.
The Pick: Iowa +3
Florida +3.5 at South Carolina: Florida heads to South Carolina after snapping its 4 game losing streak last weekend, and a much better team with its QB healthy. South Carolina is strong defensively, but really missing its star RB, and the QB has looked shaky at best. Florida is 12th against the pass and should have success running the ball of offense. South Carolina is seeing 58.6% of the action, although just 3-7 ATS last 10 as home favorite, while Gators are 0-5 ATS last 5 as an underdog.
The Pick: Florida +3.5
Michigan -1 at Illinois: Michigan's season took a turn for the worse with a loss at Iowa last week, and rank 6th in points against. Illinois is 6-3 with 3 straight losses, having trouble offensively. This should be a tight defensive battle. Michigan is seeing 63.25% of the bets, but are just 1-7 ATS last 8 on the road and 5-23 ATS last 28 conference games. Illinois is 9-3 ATS last 12 after a loss.
The Pick: Illinois +1 wins in an upset
TCU +16 at Boise St.: Boise St. finally gets a test facing a ranked TCU team, and will look to impress the pollsters. TCU is 7-2 and won 4 in a row, but no quality opponents. The last 3 meetings between these two have been close games. Boise St. is seeing 61.3% of the public action, but are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home, and TCU 9-3-1 last 13 as underdog.
The Pick: TCU +16
Miami +9 at FSU: Florida St. has been rolling with 4 straight large margin wins, but has struggled against quality opponents, but a much stronger team at home. Miami has also looked good lately and has lost a couple close ones. FSU's defense should give the Canes a lot of trouble in this one. Miami is seeing 51.1% of the action as the underdog, and are 7-3 ATS last 10 as road underdog. FSU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after winning by 20 or more points in the game prior.
The Pick: FSU -9 - Seminoles are hungry and forcing a lot of turnovers
Auburn +12 at Georgia: Georgia is one of the hotter teams in the country, 7 straight wins after an 0-2 start, although all unranked teams. Auburn is 6-2 this season, two big losses to LSU and Arkansas, considered the upper tier teams. Georgia is 7th against the run, Auburn's strength, and Auburn is 108th passing, so a tough match-up. Auburn is seeing 61.4% of the betting as the underdog, and are 13-3 ATS last 16 conference games. Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, but 0-5 ATS last 5 against teams with a winning road record.
The Pick: Georgia -12
Alabama -18.5 at Miss. St: Alabama heads on the road after Championship hopes were most likely lost with last week's LSU game. Miss. St has given a few goad teams like Georgia and South Carolina fits in recent weeks, and is a talented team. 69.6% of the public betting Crimson Tide, and Bama is 18-6 ATS last 24 as 10.5 or more point favorite, while Miss. St. is 2-6 ATS last 8 as 10.5 or more point underdog.
The Pick: Alabama -18.5 - They take out their anger on the Bulldogs...
Oregon +3.5 at Stanford: The Ducks look to play spoiler and knock Stanford out of the championship picture, a team that narrowly escaped defeat in a game USC should have won if not for a lousy roughing call. Oregon has not looked all too impressive but Kelly will have them ready for this one, and their fans travel well. Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season, Oregon just 5-3-1. Stanford is 3rd against the run and Oregon is 5th running the ball, and Stanford 17th running against a 59th ranked Ducks defense Advantage goes to Stanford and will look to control the clock to keep Oregon's up-tempo offense on the sidelines. Stanford is seeing 57.3% of the public action, but Oregon is 10-3 ATS last 13 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.
The Pick: Oregon +3.5 - Ducks are still the champs of the Pac 12 until proven otherwise
ASU -11.5 at Washington St: Arizona St. fell out of the rankings with a surprise loss to UCLA last week and has had an up and down season. The Cougars are just 3-6 and have lost 5 in a row. Both teams have some success in the passing game, so we could see a high score. Sun Devils seeing 66.4% of the betting action and are 10-4 ATS last 14 after an ATS loss. Washington St. is 7-2 ATS last 9 as 10.5 or more point underdog.
The Pick: Washington St +11.5
Texas -1.5 at Missouri: Texas has been playing well, even the loss to Oklahoma St., and then the last two weeks with big wins. Missouri has been in a ton of close games this year, but only beat Texas A&M, losing to Baylor, Oklahoma St, K-St. and Oklahoma. Texas is the 11th best rushing team and Missouri is 102nd against the pass and 58th against the run. Texas is 8th against the run and strong on 3rd down. The public has 65.3% of the action on Texas, and is 4-0 ATS last 4 as favorite, while Missouri is 1-4 ATS last 5 as home underdog.
The Pick: Texas -1.5
Nebraska -3.5 at Penn St.: This game is receiving a lot of attention, and not because it could decide the Big Ten, more on the scandal at Penn St. Penn St is 100th in scoring offense but 3rd in scoring defense, and 7 straight wins, most by small margins. Nebraska was upset at home by Northwestern last week, after having beat Michigan St the week prior, so a difficult team to read. Expect a very low scoring game with a lot of punting. Nebraska is seeing 69.75% of the action, and are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road favorite. Penn St. is 2-7 ATS last 9 after a win, and 0-4 ATS last 4 as road underdog.
The Pick: Nebraska -3.5 - Penn St. could try and win one for Joe Pa, but I think this media activity all week took many of their minds off football and Nebraska will take it to them.
Oklahoma St -19 at Texas Tech: This should be a fun one, a shootout again for Oklahoma St., sporting a 9-0 record and ranked 2nd in the country. Oklahoma St has been far less impressive in road games. Texas Tech has lost 4 of 5, that 1 win a shocking upset of Oklahoma, so a team that makes no sense at this point, losing by 34 to Iowa St and 32 to Texas. The Cowboys seeing 58.2% of the bets, and are 28-10 ATS last 38 as 10.5 or more favorite. Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog and 10-2-1 ATS last 13 after an ATS loss.
The Pick: Oklahoma St -19 - Stats favor an underdog cover, but OK St. knows it needs to run up scores for the BCS standings
Michigan St. -3 at Iowa: Michigan St. with just a 7 point win vs. Minnesota last week seems to be calling it a season early after the loss to Nebraska. Iowa is coming off an upset at home vs. Michigan and looking for the Michigan-Sweep this week. Iowa's strength is passing and Mich. St is 2nd against the pass. Spartans are seeing 58.85% of the action right now, and are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road favorite. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as home underdog, but just 1-7 ATS last 8 after a win.
The Pick: Iowa +3
Florida +3.5 at South Carolina: Florida heads to South Carolina after snapping its 4 game losing streak last weekend, and a much better team with its QB healthy. South Carolina is strong defensively, but really missing its star RB, and the QB has looked shaky at best. Florida is 12th against the pass and should have success running the ball of offense. South Carolina is seeing 58.6% of the action, although just 3-7 ATS last 10 as home favorite, while Gators are 0-5 ATS last 5 as an underdog.
The Pick: Florida +3.5
Michigan -1 at Illinois: Michigan's season took a turn for the worse with a loss at Iowa last week, and rank 6th in points against. Illinois is 6-3 with 3 straight losses, having trouble offensively. This should be a tight defensive battle. Michigan is seeing 63.25% of the bets, but are just 1-7 ATS last 8 on the road and 5-23 ATS last 28 conference games. Illinois is 9-3 ATS last 12 after a loss.
The Pick: Illinois +1 wins in an upset
TCU +16 at Boise St.: Boise St. finally gets a test facing a ranked TCU team, and will look to impress the pollsters. TCU is 7-2 and won 4 in a row, but no quality opponents. The last 3 meetings between these two have been close games. Boise St. is seeing 61.3% of the public action, but are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home, and TCU 9-3-1 last 13 as underdog.
The Pick: TCU +16
Miami +9 at FSU: Florida St. has been rolling with 4 straight large margin wins, but has struggled against quality opponents, but a much stronger team at home. Miami has also looked good lately and has lost a couple close ones. FSU's defense should give the Canes a lot of trouble in this one. Miami is seeing 51.1% of the action as the underdog, and are 7-3 ATS last 10 as road underdog. FSU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after winning by 20 or more points in the game prior.
The Pick: FSU -9 - Seminoles are hungry and forcing a lot of turnovers
Auburn +12 at Georgia: Georgia is one of the hotter teams in the country, 7 straight wins after an 0-2 start, although all unranked teams. Auburn is 6-2 this season, two big losses to LSU and Arkansas, considered the upper tier teams. Georgia is 7th against the run, Auburn's strength, and Auburn is 108th passing, so a tough match-up. Auburn is seeing 61.4% of the betting as the underdog, and are 13-3 ATS last 16 conference games. Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, but 0-5 ATS last 5 against teams with a winning road record.
The Pick: Georgia -12
Alabama -18.5 at Miss. St: Alabama heads on the road after Championship hopes were most likely lost with last week's LSU game. Miss. St has given a few goad teams like Georgia and South Carolina fits in recent weeks, and is a talented team. 69.6% of the public betting Crimson Tide, and Bama is 18-6 ATS last 24 as 10.5 or more point favorite, while Miss. St. is 2-6 ATS last 8 as 10.5 or more point underdog.
The Pick: Alabama -18.5 - They take out their anger on the Bulldogs...
Oregon +3.5 at Stanford: The Ducks look to play spoiler and knock Stanford out of the championship picture, a team that narrowly escaped defeat in a game USC should have won if not for a lousy roughing call. Oregon has not looked all too impressive but Kelly will have them ready for this one, and their fans travel well. Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season, Oregon just 5-3-1. Stanford is 3rd against the run and Oregon is 5th running the ball, and Stanford 17th running against a 59th ranked Ducks defense Advantage goes to Stanford and will look to control the clock to keep Oregon's up-tempo offense on the sidelines. Stanford is seeing 57.3% of the public action, but Oregon is 10-3 ATS last 13 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.
The Pick: Oregon +3.5 - Ducks are still the champs of the Pac 12 until proven otherwise
ASU -11.5 at Washington St: Arizona St. fell out of the rankings with a surprise loss to UCLA last week and has had an up and down season. The Cougars are just 3-6 and have lost 5 in a row. Both teams have some success in the passing game, so we could see a high score. Sun Devils seeing 66.4% of the betting action and are 10-4 ATS last 14 after an ATS loss. Washington St. is 7-2 ATS last 9 as 10.5 or more point underdog.
The Pick: Washington St +11.5
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday Night Football! Raiders at Chargers
Vegas must have read the injury report, because the favorable Chargers -6 line earlier this week now at -7.5. Oakland is hurting with its secondary, star RB, top linebacker, and a few O-lineman all likely out.
Carson Palmer looked great last week with a few wow throws, and forget the interceptions, most have been on the WR's. He should have no problem moving the ball and Michael Bush is a suitable replacement back, so Oakland will put up points.
The problem for the Raiders will be stopping the Chargers, getting back Matthews for a dual-RB threat, and Oakland has never had success stopping Gates.
The Over 48.5 Looks Great Tonight.
As for the spread, hate betting against my Raiders, but they are just not playing well and San Diego is ready for its seasonal run. Raiders are 4-0 ATS last 4 road underdog games, but San Diego 24-7 last 31 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Chargers -7.5
Sunday, November 6, 2011
NFL Week 9 Picks and Wagers
It was a busy weekend for me, so no time for the In Depth analysis this week, but here are the picks with one-liners:
Atlanta -7 at Colts - Falcons set to roll, get back Julio Jones, and could run the table rest of the year.
Tampa +8.5 at Saints - Saints are turning the ball over and struggled vs. the Bucs couple weeks ago, should be a close one.
Houston -10.5 vs Cleveland - Texans are getting their swagger back and Foster should put up huge numbers, while the Browns are a mess.
Jets +3 vs Bills - Jets are well-rested and I like the Bills to win, but just by a FG.
Chiefs -4.5 vs Dolphins - Chiefs go for 5 wins in a row in Miami will be unable to get anything going in this one.
49ers -4.5 at Skins - 49ers D is too good for John Beck and the Skins and should be able to win this by double digits.
Seahawks +11.5 at Cowboys - Seattle has shown the ability to play on the road this year, and a much better team with Tavaris Jackson, and can play strong D to force some Romo turnovers to keep it within 10.
Broncos +7.5 at Raiders - The Raiders find ways to keep games close and have questions at QB and without McFadden, and also struggle against rushing QB's.
Bengals +3 at Titans - Cincy is looking good on D and Dalton to Green is hot, while Titans are up and down each week, but I like Cincy to win here.
Rams +3 at Cardinals - Rams coming off impressive performance and Cards with Skeleton at QB
Pats -9 vs Giants - Patriots have too much offense and Giants missing Nicks, Bradshaw and countless others.
Packers -6 vs Chargers - The Pack are setting up for a 16-0 season and Rivers is struggling, Matthews potentially out, going to struggle on D to stop Rodgers and Co. as well.
Ravens +3.5 at Steelers - Baltimore has not looked good and Steelers have looked great, but this match-up is always a toss-up, so I think Baltimore steps it up and plays a tight one.
Chicago +8 vs Eagles - Vick has struggled against Bears in career and Forte should have plenty of running room. As long a Cutler avoids turnovers, Bears have a chance although Birds putting it together finally.
Atlanta -7 at Colts - Falcons set to roll, get back Julio Jones, and could run the table rest of the year.
Tampa +8.5 at Saints - Saints are turning the ball over and struggled vs. the Bucs couple weeks ago, should be a close one.
Houston -10.5 vs Cleveland - Texans are getting their swagger back and Foster should put up huge numbers, while the Browns are a mess.
Jets +3 vs Bills - Jets are well-rested and I like the Bills to win, but just by a FG.
Chiefs -4.5 vs Dolphins - Chiefs go for 5 wins in a row in Miami will be unable to get anything going in this one.
49ers -4.5 at Skins - 49ers D is too good for John Beck and the Skins and should be able to win this by double digits.
Seahawks +11.5 at Cowboys - Seattle has shown the ability to play on the road this year, and a much better team with Tavaris Jackson, and can play strong D to force some Romo turnovers to keep it within 10.
Broncos +7.5 at Raiders - The Raiders find ways to keep games close and have questions at QB and without McFadden, and also struggle against rushing QB's.
Bengals +3 at Titans - Cincy is looking good on D and Dalton to Green is hot, while Titans are up and down each week, but I like Cincy to win here.
Rams +3 at Cardinals - Rams coming off impressive performance and Cards with Skeleton at QB
Pats -9 vs Giants - Patriots have too much offense and Giants missing Nicks, Bradshaw and countless others.
Packers -6 vs Chargers - The Pack are setting up for a 16-0 season and Rivers is struggling, Matthews potentially out, going to struggle on D to stop Rodgers and Co. as well.
Ravens +3.5 at Steelers - Baltimore has not looked good and Steelers have looked great, but this match-up is always a toss-up, so I think Baltimore steps it up and plays a tight one.
Chicago +8 vs Eagles - Vick has struggled against Bears in career and Forte should have plenty of running room. As long a Cutler avoids turnovers, Bears have a chance although Birds putting it together finally.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
College Football Week 9 Picks
No time to go in depth this week, heading out for the weekend, but here are the plays:
Michigan -4 at Iowa
UNC -3.5 at NC St.
Texas A&M +14 at Oklahoma
South Carolina +5.5 at Arkansas
Alabama -4.5 vs LSU
K. St +21.5 at OK. St.
Washington +17 vs Oregon
Miami -15.5 vs Duke
USC -22 at Colorado (Friday)
Houston -28 at Alabama Birmingham
Michigan -4 at Iowa
UNC -3.5 at NC St.
Texas A&M +14 at Oklahoma
South Carolina +5.5 at Arkansas
Alabama -4.5 vs LSU
K. St +21.5 at OK. St.
Washington +17 vs Oregon
Miami -15.5 vs Duke
USC -22 at Colorado (Friday)
Houston -28 at Alabama Birmingham
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