College Football 10-Pack

A pretty weak schedule this week, but a week where I see a few potential upsets on the card:

Virginia +17 at FSU: The Seminoles at home and have won 5 in a row, a ferocious defense and EJ Manuel getting it done, and at #25 I think FSU is one of the most under-rated teams in the country. Virginia is a quality team that has won 5 of its last 6, also playing solid defense. Both teams are 5-5 ATS this season and 52.5% of the public betting the Cavaliers to cover, a team that is 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdog of 10.5 or more points. Virginia still has title hopes, but FSU is 14-2 last 16 vs. Virginia. FSU has the 4th best run defense and Virginia has averaged 187.6 yards a game, so a big match-up.

The Pick: Virginia +17 - Low Scoring and Clock will be Running Favors a Cover for a Virginia Team Building Confidence

Nebraska +3.5 at Michigan: A Big 10 showdown with Nebraska heading to Michigan, #16 at #18. Nebraska tends to keep games close playing defense and running the football. Michigan has not looked all that impressive against quality teams this year and could struggle again this week. Nebraska is 3-6-1 ATS this season and Michigan is 7-3, but 52.6% of public betting Nebraska. Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, while Michigan is 3-13 ATS last 16 games in November and 7-19 ATS last 26 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Nebraska +3.5 and Likely Wins Outright

Clemson -8 at NC St: Clemson has really struggled recently after looking to be a top contender early in the season, and heads to NC St. in a potential trap game before the big showdown with South Carolina. NC. St has scored only 23 points in total the last 3 games. Clemson is 7-3 ATS this season and 72.5% of the public betting the Tigers. The line did open at -10 and has been pushed down. NC St. is 8-2-1 last 11 at home as an underdog ATS and 17-5-1 last 23 ATS following a loss.

The Pick: NC. St +8 - Statistical Trends and Potential Looking Ahead Favor a Cover

Miami -1 at South Florida: The 5-5 Canes have lost 2 of the last 3 and head to South Florida to face a tough Bulls team that stands 5-4, but 4-0 outside its conference. Miami has lost a lot of close games to some great teams this year, and has the advantage in this one. The public is betting 59.75% on Miami, and South Florida is 2-6 ATS last 8 at home. South Florida boasts the nations 17th best offense and BJ Daniels a dual threat at QB, but Miami, which has struggled to force turnovers, will be hungry to win this and make a bowl game.

The Pick: Miami -1

Oklahoma -16 at Baylor: Baylor has struggled against the better Big 12 teams, losses to A&M and Oklahoma St by 27 and 35 points respectively. Baylor has the fire-power on offense, but can not stop anyone. Oklahoma has plenty of weapons, although recent injuries to its top RB and WR leave them without some key components, and another potential trap game as they look ahead to the showdown with Oklahoma St. Sooners are seeing 67% of the betting action, and the line opened at -13 being pushed to -16 now. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS last 12 as 10.5 or more point favorites, while Baylor is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or more point underdogs, but just 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.

The Pick: Oklahoma -16 - Take care of business, big one next week

USC +15 at Oregon: The Ducks upset Stanford with a 23 point win last week and are in rhythm after a slow start to the season. USC is a strong 8-2 and looking to play spoiler, a team that lost to Stanford in 3 OT's. Action is split with just 50.9% on Oregon in this one, and this line opened at -16.5. USC is 8-2 ATS last 10 on road, and there could be snow in this one to slow down the Ducks. Oregon is 19-7-2 last 28 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.

The Pick: USC +15 - Game of the Week and Should be Down to the Wire

Boise St -19 at SD. St: This game will come down to the matter of whether Boise St. sees any reason to play hard now, after suffering a crushing defeat to TCU last weekend. Boise has not been beating teams by wide margins, and SD. St. is no slouch, especially at home, a team that lost 27-14 to TCU. Boise St is just 4-5 ATS this season and 68% of public betting them to cover the spread. Boise St. is 8-2 ATS last 10 as road favorite of 10.5 or more, and 21-6 ATS last 27 on road overall. Aztecs are just 4-11 ATS last 15 as home underdog of 10.5 or greater.

The Pick: San Diego St. +19

Wisconsin -14.5 at Illinois: The 8-2 Badgers on the road to face a feisty Illinois team that has struggled of late. Wisconsin has dominated teams at times, but lost against the two better teams in Mich. St and Ohio St. Illinois has lost 4 straight, but by just 10, 7, 3, and then 17 points last week vs. Michigan. 72.8% of the public betting Wisconsin in this one, and Badgers are 8-1-1 last 10 as 10.5 or more point favorite, but just 3-11 ATS last 14 as road favorite of 10.5 or more points. Illini are 9-1 ATS last 10 as underdogs.

The Pick: Wisconsin -14.5 - Despite Trends Saying Bet Fighting Illini, I think they are packing it in for the year

Maryland +10.5 at Wake Forest: Maryland is 2-8 and 0-2 on the road, 6 straight losses, and since losing two close ones to G. Tech and Clemson, quality teams, they have really struggled. Wake Forest is 5-5 but has lost 3 straight, but should have beaten #9 ranked Clemson last week, and has played well this season. 59.3% of bets on Wake Forest, who are 6-4 ATS this season, Maryland just 2-8 ATS. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS last 5 at home.

The Pick: Wake Forest -10.5

Penn St +6.5 at Ohio St: The 8-2 Penn St. Nittany Lions head to Ohio St for a rivalry game, still plenty of off the field distractions for the team, although only lost by 3 to Nebraska last week and ranked 3rd in points against, and facing a Buckeyes teams that has lacked offense. Ohio St. tends to stay in close games, and has looked impressive against ranked teams, but weak against bad teams. Ohio St. with 60% of the betting action right now, and Penn St. is just 2-7-1 ATS this season. Penn St. is 3-12-1 last 16 ATS as underdogs, while Ohio St is 17-4 ATS last 21 at home.

The Pick: Ohio St -6.5