College Football 12 Pack - Week 10

Last week was an unusual showing, losing my first 5 picks and then winning the next 5, but did not have much time to look at the games. We are getting near the end of the season, man does time fly!




Texas -1.5 at Missouri: Texas has been playing well, even the loss to Oklahoma St., and then the last two weeks with big wins. Missouri has been in a ton of close games this year, but only beat Texas A&M, losing to Baylor, Oklahoma St, K-St. and Oklahoma. Texas is the 11th best rushing team and Missouri is 102nd against the pass and 58th against the run. Texas is 8th against the run and strong on 3rd down. The public has 65.3% of the action on Texas, and is 4-0 ATS last 4 as favorite, while Missouri is 1-4 ATS last 5 as home underdog.

The Pick: Texas -1.5

Nebraska -3.5 at Penn St.: This game is receiving a lot of attention, and not because it could decide the Big Ten, more on the scandal at Penn St. Penn St is 100th in scoring offense but 3rd in scoring defense, and 7 straight wins, most by small margins. Nebraska was upset at home by Northwestern last week, after having beat Michigan St the week prior, so a difficult team to read. Expect a very low scoring game with a lot of punting. Nebraska is seeing 69.75% of the action, and are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road favorite. Penn St. is 2-7 ATS last 9 after a win, and 0-4 ATS last 4 as road underdog.

The Pick: Nebraska -3.5 - Penn St. could try and win one for Joe Pa, but I think this media activity all week took many of their minds off football and Nebraska will take it to them.

Oklahoma St -19 at Texas Tech: This should be a fun one, a shootout again for Oklahoma St., sporting a 9-0 record and ranked 2nd in the country. Oklahoma St has been far less impressive in road games. Texas Tech has lost 4 of 5, that 1 win a shocking upset of Oklahoma, so a team that makes no sense at this point, losing by 34 to Iowa St and 32 to Texas. The Cowboys seeing 58.2% of the bets, and are 28-10 ATS last 38 as 10.5 or more favorite. Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS last 7 as home underdog and 10-2-1 ATS last 13 after an ATS loss.

The Pick: Oklahoma St -19 - Stats favor an underdog cover, but OK St. knows it needs to run up scores for the BCS standings



Michigan St. -3 at Iowa: Michigan St. with just a 7 point win vs. Minnesota last week seems to be calling it a season early after the loss to Nebraska. Iowa is coming off an upset at home vs. Michigan and looking for the Michigan-Sweep this week. Iowa's strength is passing and Mich. St is 2nd against the pass. Spartans are seeing 58.85% of the action right now, and are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road favorite. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as home underdog, but just 1-7 ATS last 8 after a win.

The Pick: Iowa +3

Florida +3.5 at South Carolina: Florida heads to South Carolina after snapping its 4 game losing streak last weekend, and a much better team with its QB healthy. South Carolina is strong defensively, but really missing its star RB, and the QB has looked shaky at best. Florida is 12th against the pass and should have success running the ball of offense. South Carolina is seeing 58.6% of the action, although just 3-7 ATS last 10 as home favorite, while Gators are 0-5 ATS last 5 as an underdog.

The Pick: Florida +3.5

Michigan -1 at Illinois: Michigan's season took a turn for the worse with a loss at Iowa last week, and rank 6th in points against. Illinois is 6-3 with 3 straight losses, having trouble offensively. This should be a tight defensive battle. Michigan is seeing 63.25% of the bets, but are just 1-7 ATS last 8 on the road and 5-23 ATS last 28 conference games. Illinois is 9-3 ATS last 12 after a loss.

The Pick: Illinois +1 wins in an upset

TCU +16 at Boise St.: Boise St. finally gets a test facing a ranked TCU team, and will look to impress the pollsters. TCU is 7-2 and won 4 in a row, but no quality opponents. The last 3 meetings between these two have been close games. Boise St. is seeing 61.3% of the public action, but are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home, and TCU 9-3-1 last 13 as underdog.

The Pick: TCU +16

Miami +9 at FSU: Florida St. has been rolling with 4 straight large margin wins, but has struggled against quality opponents, but a much stronger team at home. Miami has also looked good lately and has lost a couple close ones. FSU's defense should give the Canes a lot of trouble in this one. Miami is seeing 51.1% of the action as the underdog, and are 7-3 ATS last 10 as road underdog. FSU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after winning by 20 or more points in the game prior.

The Pick: FSU -9 - Seminoles are hungry and forcing a lot of turnovers

Auburn +12 at Georgia: Georgia is one of the hotter teams in the country, 7 straight wins after an 0-2 start, although all unranked teams. Auburn is 6-2 this season, two big losses to LSU and Arkansas, considered the upper tier teams. Georgia is 7th against the run, Auburn's strength, and Auburn is 108th passing, so a tough match-up. Auburn is seeing 61.4% of the betting as the underdog, and are 13-3 ATS last 16 conference games. Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, but 0-5 ATS last 5 against teams with a winning road record.

The Pick: Georgia -12

Alabama -18.5 at Miss. St: Alabama heads on the road after Championship hopes were most likely lost with last week's LSU game. Miss. St has given a few goad teams like Georgia and South Carolina fits in recent weeks, and is a talented team. 69.6% of the public betting Crimson Tide, and Bama is 18-6 ATS last 24 as 10.5 or more point favorite, while Miss. St. is 2-6 ATS last 8 as 10.5 or more point underdog.

The Pick: Alabama -18.5 - They take out their anger on the Bulldogs...

Oregon +3.5 at Stanford: The Ducks look to play spoiler and knock Stanford out of the championship picture, a team that narrowly escaped defeat in a game USC should have won if not for a lousy roughing call. Oregon has not looked all too impressive but Kelly will have them ready for this one, and their fans travel well. Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season, Oregon just 5-3-1. Stanford is 3rd against the run and Oregon is 5th running the ball, and Stanford 17th running against a 59th ranked Ducks defense Advantage goes to Stanford and will look to control the clock to keep Oregon's up-tempo offense on the sidelines. Stanford is seeing 57.3% of the public action, but Oregon is 10-3 ATS last 13 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.

The Pick: Oregon +3.5 - Ducks are still the champs of the Pac 12 until proven otherwise



ASU -11.5 at Washington St: Arizona St. fell out of the rankings with a surprise loss to UCLA last week and has had an up and down season. The Cougars are just 3-6 and have lost 5 in a row. Both teams have some success in the passing game, so we could see a high score. Sun Devils seeing 66.4% of the betting action and are 10-4 ATS last 14 after an ATS loss. Washington St. is 7-2 ATS last 9 as 10.5 or more point underdog.

The Pick: Washington St +11.5