Pittsburgh -3 at Cincy: The 6-3 Steelers head to Cincy as favorites, coming off a tough loss to the Ravens, and been involved in a lot of tight games this season. Cincy has been the surprise of the NFL at 6-2 and playing great Defense, but Dalton faces an aggressive Steelers defense, a tough task for any rookie. Big Ben tends to struggle against the Bengals, but has a new weapon in Antonio Brown and is looking great of late. The Bengals wins have also all come against teams in the lower tier of the NFL, aside from the Bills, who are fading. Cincy is 7-1 ATS this season, but 67.8% of the money of the Steelers. Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 as a favorite, and Bengals are 9-0 ATS last 9 vs AFC teams.
The Pick: Steelers -3 - This is the Bengals first real test, and I do not think they can be up to the task.
Denver +3 at KC: Tim Tebow leads the Broncos on the road to face a Chiefs team that just lost to the previously winless Dolphins. Tebow is a terrible QB and unlikely to last long in the league, but he does find a way to keep his team in games. Neither team has much talent on either side of the ball, so it should stay close, 52.8% picking KC thus far. Denver is 1-9-1 last 11 ATS after an ATS win, while Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Denver +3
Jacksonville -3 at Indy: Another boring one here, the winless Colts have been looking worse each week, no production offensively. The Colts also can not stop the run so MJD should have a big game and the Jags should have no issue this week, also a strong defensive team. Jags are seeing 64.55% of the public action, and are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Colts are 13-3-1 last 17 as a 0.5 to 3 point underdog.
The Pick: Jags -3
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: The Bills are no longer flying under the radar and struggling in recent weeks, and head to Dallas to face the 4-4 Cowboys that need a win badly. DeMarco Murray has been a bright spot for Dallas and should have no problem against the 27th ranked Bills defense. Buffalo relies on Fred Jackson and Dallas has a run stuffing defense. Buffalo is seeing 63.35% of the betting action, and are 3-0-1 last 4 ATS as underdogs. Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 as a favorite and 2-8 ATS last 10 at home as favorite, so they do not perform against teams they should beat.
The Pick: Buffalo +5.5 - Stats favor a cover and an opportune Bills D will excel against mistake-prone Romo
Houston -3.5 at Tampa Bay: Houston is rolling with 3 straight wins and ranked 2nd against the pass and 4th against the run, winning with D for a change, but still without Andre Johnson this week. Tampa is a tough team to read, tend to stay in games but Freeman not able to have last year's comeback magic. Tampa is ranked near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories, expect a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Houston is seeing 62.5% of bets, and is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Tampa is 5-1 ATS last 6 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, but just 3-14 ATS last 17 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Houston -3 - Expect Texans to blow them out in this one
Tennessee +3 at Carolina: Cam Newton should be well rested coming off the bye and Carolina has been an impressive 2-6, at least on offense, but ranked 28th in stopping the run. Titans have lost 3 of the last 4 and as a dog on the road, this one looks to be a trap, a team struggling to find its identity. 57% of the public betting the Panthers, who are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Titans are 2-6 ATS last 8 as road underdogs.
The Pick: Carolina -3 - The spread was more favorable earlier this week, but expect Carolina to put it all together for a big win and be a factor in the second half of the season.
Washington +4 at Miami: The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the year and Matt Moore looked impressive, while Reggie Bush looks good and they need to get Daniel Thomas back involved. Skins have lost 4 in a row and the QB change has not worked. Miami seeing 54% of the public action, and are a terrible 6-29 ATS last 35 as a home favorite. Skins are 6-2 ATS last 8 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Skins +4 - Ugly game, but a close game
New Orleans -1 at Atlanta: This is a big game for the Falcons at home, a team starting to click with 3 straight wins. Saints are 6-3 and have had some mental letdowns on the road in recent weeks. The teams match-up equally and the Falcons are enjoying the return of Julio Jones who blew up last week. I feel the Saints are struggling on the road due to Payton not on the sidelines and the lack of a running game. Atlanta is seeing 51% of the action, who are 13-6 ATS last 19 on turf. Saints are just 5-11 ATS last 16 in division and 6-15 ATS last 21 after a win.
The Pick: Falcons +1 - Atlanta could run the table and be a real factor in the playoffs
St. Louis +3 at Cleveland: Another lousy game of the schedule, but the Rams come in as a much improved team with Bradford and Jackson back together, deserved a better fate last week. Browns are fighters and keep games close, ranked 1st against the pass, but 30th against the run, so a big day in store for Jackson, and Cleveland is poor offensively. Cleveland seeing 50.85% of the public action, but are just 2-12-1 ATS last 15 overall, while Rams are 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, but 0-6 ATS last 6 on road overall.
The Pick: Rams +3 - St Louis should win this on the back of Steven Jackson
Arizona +14 at Philadelphia: Arizona is just 2-6 but have kept games close with the likes of the Giants and Ravens, while Eagles are a tough team to see as a heavy favorite considering their lack of living up to expectations. The Eagles can not afford to look ahead to next week's match-up against the Giants. Arizona is 29th against the pass, so Eagles should shred them all day. Philly is receiving 54% of the action, but are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as home favorites. Cards are 5-0 ATS last 5 as 10.5 or more point dogs, but just 4-11 ATS last 15 on the road.
The Pick: Cards +14 - Stats favor a cover, but Eagles better win for my suicide pool!
Baltimore -6.5 at Seattle: Seattle is on a 3 game losing streak, including an ugly 6-3 loss to the Browns, but tends to play better at home. Baltimore has looked anything but impressive, but in terms of football talent has a major advantage. Baltimore is a heavy public favorite with 76.85% of the action, although just 4-11 ATS last 15 as road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Seattle is 4-1 ATS last 5 as home underdog, but just 7-19-1 ATS versus teams with winning records.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5 - Some trends favor a Seattle cover, but I do not see how they will score any points.
Detroit +3 at Chicago: The Bears have won 3 in a row, but coming off a short week, while Detroit is coming off a bye week. The Lions two losses are against two of the better teams in the league, and should force a lot of pressure on Cutler, but are 29th against the run, so Forte should have another big game. The Lions are the best in the league on 3rd down defense and have turned the ball over the fewest in the league. Detroit with a slight bias with 50.7% of the public action, and are 11-3-1 last 15 ATS against the NFC. BEars are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite.
The Pick: Lions +3 - I think Detroit can win this one, but lock down this spread at +3 as it is moving at some shops.
NY Giants +3.5 at San Francisco: The 7-1 49ers at home, a team that finds a way to win every week and ranks 6th rushing the ball and 1st against the run, an old-school team. Giants are a team on the rise, 3 straight including an upset of the Pats last week, relies heavily on passing the ball and struggles against the run. Both these teams are strong this season, feels like the early 90's. SF is susceptible against the pass and Eli should have all his weapons this week. Giants are seeing 57.4% of the public action, but are just 4-11 last 15 ATS on grass, though 14-6 ATS last 20 as road underdogs. 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS last 9 overall.
The Pick: Giants +3.5 - This one should come down to the wire....
New England +1 at NY Jets: The Patriots are no longer a dominant force, a team making turnovers and last in the league against the pass, 2 straight losses. Jets are finally putting things together and Revis should lock down Welker, 3 straight wins and now at home in a huge game. Pats are seeing 61.7% of teh public betting, but are just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. Jets are 19-9 ATS last 28 vs AFC opponents, though 2-5 ATS last 7 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Jets -1 - They win and run the table into the playoffs...
Minnesota +13 at Green Bay: Vikings are coming off a bye and Ponder has looked good, playing the Packers just a couple weeks back and lost by 6. It is the worst match-up for the Vikings as they are good running the ball and on run defense, while Packers excel at passing on offense and run defense. Green Bay is seeing 61.4% of the betting action, and are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home, but just 7-16-2 ATS last 25 as a favorite of 10.5 or more. Vikings are 5-11 ATS last 16 on the road.
The Pick: Packers -13 - Too much offense and shine in the spotlight of MNF
Jets are going to kill my Patriots. Sad times.
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