The Pick: Buffalo +2 - This one comes down to turnovers and I think the Bills secondary forces Matt Moore into some bad decisions.
Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore: The Bengals have looked like the better team this season, but the Ravens are the more talented team, and have been unpredictable this season, but the loss of leader Ray Lewis is sure to hurt them, while the Bengals will likely miss Dalton's top target AJ Green. Cincy gave the Steelers a good fight last week, while the Ravens lost to Seattle, a team pulling off numerous upsets. The Ravens have struggled on offense and Cincy has a top ranked defense, and this should be a low scoring game. Bengals are 7-2 ATS this season and 57.6% of the public betting that way. Bengals are 10-2 ATS last 12, while Ravens are 9-4 ATS last 13 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Flacco will continue to struggle and even with some key injuries, Bengals are in this one all game.
Jacksonville Pick at Cleveland: Cleveland is 3-6 and lost 3 straight, in quite a few tight games this year, and although ranked 1st against the pass, 30th against the run is worrisome against a team like the Jags that relied on MJD's legs. Jacksonville has won 2 of its last 3, and ranks 5th against the pass, though top CB Mathis done for the season. This could be a battle of FG's, and the Browns do have the advantage there, and also if Cribbs busts a return or two for the field position battle. Jags seeing 58.1% of the betting, and Browns are just 1-6-2 ATS this season.
The Pick: Jags - MJD carries the Jags and actually puts them back in contention
Oakland -1 at Minnesota: Carson Palmer has learned the playbook and lit up the Chargers last week and now faces a Vikings defense ranked 30th against the pass and without Winfield at CB. McFadden is set to miss another one, but Bush has filled in admirably, and the Raiders coming off a long week a bit healthier on Defense. Vikings coming off a short week after a Monday Night blowout loss, and although Ponder has looked good he lacks weapons at WR, but Peterson should keep the Vikings alive in a likely back and forth game. The Raiders are the less disciplined team, turning it over twice as much as the Vikings and penalized the most in the league. The public likes the Raiders with 65.86%, although Oakland is 0-6 ATS last 6 on turf, but 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road. Vikings are 2-8-1 ATS against winning record teams, and the Raiders need to win to stay atop the AFC West.
The Pick: Raiders -1
Carolina +6.5 at Detroit: The Panthers looked terrible last week as favorites against the Titans, and come into this one as underdogs on the road against a high powered Lions team that has struggled recently. Lions look to bounce back from a big loss to the Bears and have lost 3 of 4, but to top contenders, which Carolina is not. The Lions are ranked 4th against the pass, so Newton could struggle in a loud stadium with a fierce Lions pass rush. Detroit is seeing 66% of the public action, and are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home, while Carolina is 1-5 ATS last 6 on road. Detroit may be looking ahead to the Thanksgiving showdown with the Packers, so potentially a trap game.
The Pick: Detroit -6.5
Tampa Bay +14.5 at Green Bay: The Pack have won 9 straight and this is the ultimate trap game ahead of the Thanksgiving game with the Lions. Green Bay is 31st against the pass and although Freeman is not living up to last year's performance he can turn it on and make plays. Tampa is ranked 28th against the pass and 29th against the run, not good news against the league's best QB, and lost 37-9 to Houston last week. 70.6% of the public betting Green Bay, a team 12-3-1 last 16 ATS as home favorites. Bucs are surprisingly 12-3-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Bucs +14.5 - Packers could lose focus in this one and Tampa can find a way to keep it close.
Dallas -8 at Washington: The 5-4 Cowboys are looking much better lately as they get healthier and an easy schedule to make a run for a playoff berth. Skins are terrible, losing 5 straight, and have no QB and have lost a lot of players to injury for the season. Rex is going to have pressure in his face all day with two rookies starting on the O-Line and will make turnovers. Dallas with 56.86% of the public bets, and are just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as road favorites, while Skins are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. NFC East opponents.
The Pick: Dallas -8
Arizona +10 at San Fran.: The pesky Cardinals have won two in a row, maybe Kolb was not the answer and Skeleton was, and have lost some close ones as well this year, running the ball well and making some timely defensive plays. SF has looked great, although tends to stay in tight games, controlling the clock with the running game and Gore banged up, also could be looking ahead to Thursday night showdown against the Ravens. Fitzgerald should have a big game against a susceptible pass defense. The 49ers seeing 59.5% of the action and have owned the Cards in the last 3 match-ups. 49ers are 8-0 ATS last 8 as favorites, and Cards just 2-7 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: 49ers -10 - The underdog play looks sexy here, but SF is a much improved team and doubt the Cardinals can do much against them in this one.
Seattle +3 at St. Louis: The Rams have won 2 of 3 and playing better with Steven Jackson still a beast, and Chris Long leading an aggressive defense, also new weapon Brandon Lloyd helping Sam Bradford. Rams rank last against the run and Lynch has been reborn in Seattle. Rams lost starting left tackle in a freak injury this week, and could play a factor. Seattle is 3-6 and coming off a big win against the Ravens, but tend to struggle on the road, but St Louis not a hostile environment. St Louis seeing 58.5% of the bets, and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, but just 7-20-1 last 28 ATS as road underdogs. Rams are 7-16-1 ATS as home favorites and 2-8 ATS last 10 overall.
The Pick: Seattle +3
Tennessee +6.5 at Atlanta: A stupid coaching decision cost the Falcons a big game last week, and cost me a parlay. Titans coming off a dominating win in which CJ2K finally showed up to play. Atlanta can stop the run and Tennessee cannot, the difference in this one and the home field advantage. Atlanta is seeing 67.2% of the public action, a bit heavy for a team that is overvalued in the public due to last year's performance. Titans are 14-5 ATS last 19 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Atlanta is 8-2 ATS last 10 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Atlanta -6.5
San Diego +4 at Chicago: This one could be high scoring, Bears struggle against the pass and Chargers struggle against the run, big days for Rivers and Forte. Bears are looking like an elite team winning 4 straight and putting away its offensive line woes from earlier this season. Chargers coming off a long week and realize they need a big road win with the AFC West a tight race and they did give the Packers a handful, but it was at home and weather could play a factor. Chicago has the public's attention with 63.75% of the action, though a history of having big let-down games. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite, while Chargers are 22-8-3 ATS last 33 as underdogs, though just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 after an ATS loss.
The Pick: Da Bears -4
Philadelphia +5.5 at NY Giants: The Eagles have looked terrible with all their stars in the lineup, so this week without Vick and Maclin it could get ugly. The 6-3 Giants will look to deliver the death blow to the Eagles season at home. Giants seeing 65.5% of the public action, and likely will be without Bradshaw again this week. Eagles are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, and 13-5 ATS last 18 as road dogs. Giants are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 as home favorites and 3-12 ATS last 15 in Week 11 games, so some statistical trends favor an Eagles cover and it would also shock the public, which has been the rule of thumb this year.
The Pick: Giants -5.5 - NY's sloppy performance against Seattle is still in my mind, hopefully it does not happen again.
KC Chiefs +15 at New England Pats: How do you analyze a game where Tyler Palko makes his first NFL start and it is in New England on MNF? Pats dominated the Jets last week and look set for a strong finish with an easy schedule, NFL always seems to be in their corner. Chiefs are not too bad defensively, but are starting to fall apart at the seams after losses to Denver and Miami. Pats seeing 76.% of the public action, this week's heaviest favorite and trend. Chiefs has some trends in their favor, 11-2 ATS last 13 as 10.5 or greater underdogs and 5-0 ATS last 5 as dogs. Pats are 3-15 ATS last 18 as 10.5 or greater favorites, so trends favor a cover. Last time these two teams played the Chiefs ended Tom Brady's season.
The Pick: Chiefs +15 - KC likes playing the role of underdogs, and Palko could surprise some people against the leagues worst pass defense.
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