Week 12 NFL Picks

Green Bay -7 at Detroit: The 10-0 Packers put their perfect season on the line with a visit to Detroit on Thanksgiving, a game the Lions have been lining up all season. Green Bay struggled against an aggressive Tampa Bay Defense last week, and this is the first time they see the Lions this year, and on the road. The Lions won a shoot out with the Panthers last week, but have been shaky after a strong start to the season. Detroit found a running game last week with Kevin Smith and Best is out again this week. The Lions match-up well, 5th against the pass, and Packers 31st against the pass. Green Bay is seeing 57.3% of the public action, and Packers are 9-3 ATS last 12 as favorites. Detroit is 0-7 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs.

The Pick: Lions +7 - I think the pass rush will get to Rodgers this week and Lions have no problem putting up points to keep it close, and possibly win outright.

Miami +7 at Dallas: The Cowboys have won 3 in a row but still never know what you might get with this team, and Romo who has been dominant in November for years. Miami comes to town riding their own 3 game win streak and has allowed just 20 points in 3 games. Dallas is seeing 51% of the public action so far, and a line that opened at -9 has been pushed to -7. Miami is 13-5-1 last 19 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 6-0 ATS last 6 Thursday games, but just 2-9 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Both teams could struggle on the ground, and Dallas has the advantage in the passing game. Romo is 4-0 on Thanksgiving with a 12-2 TD/INT Ratio.

The Pick: Miami +7 - I felt the Dolphins were good even when they were 0-7, and finally starting to win, so I look for a close game, and the key will be forcing 2+ turnovers.

San Francisco +3 at Baltimore: The 49ers have won 8 straight and are shafted by the scheduling, its 4th trip to the East coast and this one on a short week. Baltimore is a team that has had plenty of ups and downs, at 7-3 but with some bad losses. San Francisco relies on running the ball and Gore ha been banged up so the short week hurts him, and the Ravens are stout against the run, ranked 5th. San Francisco is #1 against the run, but has had struggles in the passing game. 49ers with 63.1% of the betting action, a team that is 9-0-1 ATS this season. However, SF is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs. Baltimore is 10-4-1 last 15 ATS as home favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, but 0-3-1 ATS last 4 as favorites.

The Pick: Baltimore -3 - Too many factors this week, and the veteran Harbaugh wins the Brothers Bowl

Arizona +3 St Louis: This is one of those games to sleep through, Rams winners of 2 of the last 4, while Cardinals winners of 2 of the last 3. Kolb may return for the Cards, although not likely a good thing. Arizona is 5-5 ATS this season and Rams are 2-8. Arizona at 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road and St Louis 8-20 ATS last 28 divisional games.

The Pick: Cardinals +3 - Talented team starting to click and Peterson dynamic on Special Teams

Buffalo +9 at NY Jets: An AFC East battle of 5-5 teams where Vegas is favoring NY big time, although losers of 2 in a row, an offense that is ugly to watch. Bills have lost 3 in a row and Fitzpatrick is throwing to the wrong team since signing a big contract, and Buffalo without Fred Jackson really hurts. Jets beat them 26-11 just 3 weeks ago. Buffalo is seeing 58.55% of the public action, and are 9-4 ATS last 13 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.

The Pick: Jets -9 - Without Fred Jackson the Bills are unlikely to score many poitns and turnovers will crush them.

Cleveland +7.5 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are no slouch, but have lost 2 straight to Steelers and Ravens, unlikely to be able to make a playoff run looking at the schedule. Dalton is solid and they can run the ball well. Browns are 1st against the pass, but 29th against the run, and dismal on the offensive side of the ball. This game could be a Field Goal Fest. Bengals seeing 59.75% of the action, an impressive 7-2-1 ATS this season, but 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorites. Browns are 7-2 ATS last 9 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10, but 0-7 ATS last 7 as underdogs.

The Pick: Browns +7.5 - Sloppy game favors the underdog to cover

Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville: The Jags are not very good except for the MNF game against the Ravens, but Houston comes in with Matt Leinart now at QB, a major concern, but does get back Andre Johnson who could make any QB look good. Houston is coming off a bye week, which has hurt teams this year, but was looking to be a top contender in the AFC. They rank 4th against the run and 2nd against the pass. Houston is seeing 71.7% of the action, and the Jags are just 4-10-1 ATS last 15 against winning record teams.

The Pick: Houston -3.5 - Arina Foster and Ben Tate will provide the offense, and the Defense should keep Jags under 14 points

Carolina -3.5 at Indianapolis: The Colts look for their first win of the season with a rookie QB coming to town that has been turning the ball over way too often, peaked early this season. Carolina has been able to score, but can;t stop anybody. Carolina is receiving 77.2% of the public action, heavy favorites. Panthers are 8-2-1 last 11 ATS as favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Colts are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. I feel like Peyton Manning used the bye week to do some coaching to the Colts QB's and they should come into this game healthier.

The Pick: Colts +3.5 - Potentially Get 1st Win

Tampa Bay +3 at Tennessee: The 5-5 Titans still believe they can make the playoffs and I was impressed with Jake Locker last week, though it looks like the old vet is back in at QB this week. Tampa played admirably against the Packers last week, but have dropped 4 straight, though to some of the league's elite teams. Tampa Bay seeing 57.6% of the action, and are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 on the road, while Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 as favorites.

The Pick: Bucs +3 - Freeman looked to turn a corner last week, and should continue

Minnesota +9.5 at Atlanta: The Vikings really are not that bad to be a 9 point dog, but with Peterson likely out and a rookie QB having to go on the road to a hostile environment against an offense starting to roll, it is a tough match-up. Matt Ryan and Roddy White should be set for a big day against a beaten up Vikings secondary, although last week the Titans snuck in with a late backdoor cover. Atlanta is seeing 65.66% of the action, and are 12-4 ATS last 16 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Vikings are 5-12 ATS last 17 on the road.

The Pick: Falcons -9.5 - This one could get ugly

Chicago +4 at Oakland: The 6-4 Raiders should be 8-2, and will face a Bears team that was rolling but lost Jay Cutlet for the year. Raiders have their own injury issues, McFadden still out and without their top 3 WR's, so they could struggle against a strong Bear's D and Raiders have struggled at home, and especially in the 4th quarter of games, so a run-a-way is highly unlikely. Matt Forte also in for a good match-up against the 25th ranked run D. The public siding with Oakland for 52.5%, but Raiders just 8-23 ATS last 31 as favorites. Bears are 7-19 ATS last 26 as 3 to 10 point dogs on the road.

The Pick: Bears +4 - I know my Raiders and they will find a way to make this one interesting

Washington +3.5 at Seattle: The Skins have lost 6 straight, but put up a good fight against the Cowboys last week with Grossman moving the chains. Seattle is great at home and ranked strong defensively, winning 2 in a row as well. Seattle receiving 56.3% of the public action, and are 8-2 ATS last 100 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Skins are 7-22-3 last 32 ATS against teams with losing records.

The Pick: Washington +3.5 - Tavaris Jackson scares me, and will make mistakes to keep this close

New England -3 at Philadelphia: The Eagles basically do the opposite of what you expect, losing to the Cardinals at home, but then beating the Giants on the road without Vick at QB. Pats are starting to roll and even play some Defense, but the Eagles can pressure the QB and shut down WR's. New England one of this week's favorite public picks, 73% of the bets. Pats are 47-23-3 ATS last 73 road games, and Eagles are 1-7 ATS last 8 at home.

The Pick: Patriots -3 - Officially End the Dream Team's Season

Denver +7 at San Diego: Tebow takes his apostles to San Diego with a 3 game winning streak. He is an embarrassment to the position, but finds ways to win. Denver will be giving the Chargers a full dose of its running game and the Charges have dropped 5 in a row, always a team that everyone picks to start the season, but can;t get it done with Norv Turner at the helm. Rivers has turned into Ryan Leaf all of a sudden and the D can not stop the run. Denver is seeing 50% of the public action, a split public. San Diego is 24-8 ATS last 32 as 3.5 to 10 point home favorites, but 0-6-1 ATS last 7 after a loss.

The Pick: Broncos +7 - Denver's style of play calls for another close game and some more Tebow heroics

Pittsburgh -11 at Kansas City: The Chiefs have lost 3 straight and on a short week have to face a well-rested Steelers team, although Big Ben has a broken thumb. Pittsburgh has not exactly been blowing teams out so the large spread is surprising. The public likes the Steelers with 74.4% of the action, and both teams are 5-5 ATS this season, Steelers are 0-4 ATS last 4 as road favorites of 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdgos and 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs.

The Pick: Chiefs +11 - KC is a lot better at home usually and should be able to play a tight one

NY Giants +7 at New Orleans: The 7-3 Saints coming off a bye and at home for a Monday Night showdown. The Giants looked terrible last week against the Eagles and too much pressure on Eli Manning without Bradshaw to support a running attack. Saints are seeing 57.5% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as home favorites, while NY is 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday Night games and 30-14 ATS last 44 on the road. The Giants should be able to move the ball on the Saints, and New Orleans could struggle against the pass rush.

The Pick: Giants +7