Hate to see the season end, and week 17 is usually a crap-shoot with team's resting players, so not looking to over-analyze the games this week. It was a great season of betting and will even be better next year.
Chicago +1.5 at Minnesota - The Bears season was ruined by injuries, but a better team would have found ways to win, plenty of teams lost starting QB and RB. Vikings are a team I already am planning on taking as underdogs next year. Peterson injury will linger into next year, but if Ponder gets another weapon, say Justin Blackmon, this will be a dangerous offense next year. Kahlil Bell is turning into a nice find for the Bears, and think they win this to finish 8-8.
Tennessee -2.5 at Houston - Titans still have some hope to make the wild car, and I do not think Houston can really make much of a move in the seeding. Texans are looking bad heading into playoffs and likely will be a one and done. Titans would be better with Jake Locker at QB, and somehow its misfit WR's have payed really well most of the year. As much as I'd like Houston to win this one, I do not see much of an incentive for them to play hard.
Buffalo +11.5 at New England - Bills will go down fighting and dismantled the Broncos last week. Buffalo has the pieces to be a playoff team next year, and really was disappointing after a hot start. Pats are already saying Brady has a sore shoulder, the usual games, but will want to lock-up homefield advantage.
Jaguars -3.5 vs. Colts - Two teams that were terrible most of the year, although the Colts came on strong lately, but need a loss to get the 1st draft pick, so we could see them play not to win. MJD should control the game and maybe the Jags let Gabbert open up the playbook to see if they have their future QB or not.
49ers -10.5 vs Rams - The pesky Rams have just two wins this year, a big surprise for a team many saw as divisional winners. The 49ers need to lock-up the first round bye so should be playing the starters and put this one away early.
Packers +3 vs. Lions - The Lions will be a wildcard team, but could decide the fate of the first round match-up and has been a hot team. Packers will be resting players, but will not want to be beat at home, a bad omen for a potential playoff rematch.
Panthers +9 at Saints - Saints have a slim chance to sneak in as the first round bye if the 49ers lose, but unlikely. Panthers are a team on the rise and sure to be a fun team to watch next year. Brees may go to extend the record in the first half, but likely see the team take the petal off the metal.
Jets +3 at Miami - Jets need to show-up for this one or risk missing the playoffs and a lot of changes to a team that has been a let-down. Dolphins have played well, but without top playmaker Reggie Bush for this one and Jet's D should contain the Matt Moore to Marshall combo.
Redskins +9 vs Eagles - Philly will look to cap off the "dream-season" with an 8-8 record, but the Skins are a team that is putting up some big numbers lately and the divisional match-up should call for a close game.
Seattle +3 at Arizona - I was really hoping Seattle would sneak into the playoffs, I like how hard that team plays for their coach, and if they can add a QB next season it will be a team to watch, really like the Defense. Arizona is a team that has had good weeks and bad weeks, and really does not deserve to be 7-8.
Raiders -2.5 vs Chargers - Oakland will get back Jacoby Ford, a big play-maker, and the passing game should be in full force, and the Chargers were torched by the Lions last week. McFadden still out, but Raiders can still make the playoffs with some help, and a dangerous team if they get in. Rivers has struggled against the Raiders, and although Oakland has found zero success at home this year, I say they win big.
Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos - Kyle Orton is out for vengeance and we are starting to see the real Tim Tebow, the guy that can not throw a football. Chiefs will out-physical Denver and play a tough game.
Atlanta -11 vs Bucs - I do not think Atlanta will play the starters all game, but the Bucs are terrible this season, and would lose to back-ups.
Baltimore -1.5 at Bengals - The Ravens are still jockeying for position, and many AFC teams needing a Bengals loss to have a chance at the wildcard. Baltimore has played poor on the road, but will want to enter the playoffs on a positive note and should be able to win this one.
Steelers -6.5 at Browns - Steelers are the better team and should get up early and rest starters.
Dallas +3 at Giants - What a game to end the season, especially after the last time these two teams played. Both coaches and QB's on the hot seat if the team loses, well in theory. Neither team can stop the other's passing game, and the Giants should win this one, but I like for it to be another close game.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
NFL Week 16 Picks
On vacation, so just quick picks this week:
Raiders +2.5 at Chiefs
Jags +7.5 at Titans
Carolina -7.5 vs Bucs
Giants +3 at Jets
Steelers -13 vs Rams
Denver -1.5 at Buffalo
Skins -6.5 vs Vikings
Arizona +4 at Cincy
Baltimore -13 vs Cleveland
Miami +10 vs New England
Chargers -1 at Detroit
49ers -1.5 at Seattle
Eagles +1.5 at Dallas
Bears +13 at Packers
Falcons +7 at New Orleans
Raiders +2.5 at Chiefs
Jags +7.5 at Titans
Carolina -7.5 vs Bucs
Giants +3 at Jets
Steelers -13 vs Rams
Denver -1.5 at Buffalo
Skins -6.5 vs Vikings
Arizona +4 at Cincy
Baltimore -13 vs Cleveland
Miami +10 vs New England
Chargers -1 at Detroit
49ers -1.5 at Seattle
Eagles +1.5 at Dallas
Bears +13 at Packers
Falcons +7 at New Orleans
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
NFL Week 15 Picks and Analysis
I've been absolutely on fire with NFL picks, averaging 10 wins per week the last 3 weeks, and my betting account has hit record highs. A lot of tricky spreads this week, but good ones to tease favorites down to pick-em.
Time to look at Week 15 games, and getting close to the end of the season, and since I mainly only bet Football, going to be quiet on the blog.
Jacksonville +11.5 at Atlanta: Jags are coming off of an offensive explosion against the Bucs and may have confidence, and can always depend on MJD to bring his A-Game. Even in losses this year the team has played close games. Atlanta does not now how to put teams away and tends to be in close games, even against bad teams, but does rank 5th against the run. Both teams 5-7-1 ATS this season, and public favoring Jags with 52.1% of the action. Jags are 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdog of 10.5 or more, but jsut 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as road underdogs. Falcons are 2-5 ATS last 7 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Jags +11.5 - Gabbert making progress and can keep this a close game
Dallas -7 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs have lost 7 straight and blown out by Jags and Panthers, not exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL. Dallas will need this game badly and will exploit the Bucs lousy defense and shut down Blount. The public has 65.85% of the action on the Cowboys. Dallas is 7-18-1 ATS last 26 as favorites, and 2-12 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Tampa is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point underdogs, but 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Cowboys -7 - Forget the statistical trends favoring a cover, Bucs are getting worse by the week (good game to tease to -1)
Washington +7 at NY Giants: The Skins have only won 1 of their last 9 and injuries/suspensions testing the team's depth, but they did play well to give the Pats a scare last week. Giants are coming off a huge win and need to keep winning to win the division, but the pass defense can be exploited, even by Sexy Rexy. The public is siding with the Giants at 67.13%. Redskins are 5-1 ATS last 6 in the division, while Giants are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Redskins +7 - Giants tend to play down to weaker opponents and Washington will have no problem scoring.
Packers -14.5 at KC Chiefs: The Packers take their perfect record to Arrowhead and are rolling, but will be without Greg Jennings. Chiefs tend to play inspired at home and will have a new coach on the sidelines. KC can also defend the pass and pressure the QB, so actually match-up fairly well. The public has 79.75% of the action on the Packers. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS last 6 road games when favored by 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs, and 12-4 ATS last 16 as 10.5 or more point underdogs.
The Pick: Chiefs +14.5 - Playing the stat trends
Saints -6.5 at Vikings: Saints are not the same on the road, but at least this game is in a dome, so no battle with the elements and looking to lock-up a first round bye. Vikings gave Detroit a game last week and may get Peterson back, but 26th against the pass, so Brees should have a big day. Saints are 9-4 ATS this season and 82.75% of the public betting the Saints. Saints are 7-0 ATS last 7 on turf, but 3-11 ATS against losing record teams, and 2-5 ATS last 7 as road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Vikings are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as home dogs.
The Pick: Saints -6.5 - Brees will have a field day and Ponder making dumb decisions
Seahawks +3.5 at Bears: The Bears have lost 3 straight since losing Cutler and Forte, but a tiny chance Forte is back this week. Seattle is on fire winning 4 of 5 and running the ball well and playing strong defense. Seattle is seeing 58.3% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as underdogs, but 8-20-1 ATS as road underdogs. Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 as home favorites, but 4-10 ATS at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle +3.5 - Momentum late in the season is key, and Bears have to be down after last week's loss
Dolphins -1.5 at Bills: Miami has won 4 of its last 6 and although a poor performance last week, a team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and now with a new coach. They beat Buffalo 35-8 a couple weeks ago, and the Bills have lost 6 straight in unimpressive fashion. Dolphins are 6-1 ATS last 7 and 20-8-1 ATS last 29 road games. Bills are 1-5 ATS last 6 games.
The Pick: Dolphins -1.5
Panthers +6.5 at Texans: Houston is at home and has won 7 straight, although it has not been easy without Schaub and Johnson. Houston is 2nd in rushing and Panthers are 24th against the run. Carolina has a lot of offensive yards, but Texans D is top notch and could be a tough test for Cam Newton. Houston is 9-3-1 ATS this season, but Carolina seeing 53% of the public bets. Panthers are 3-8 ATS last as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-6 ATS last 7 as road dogs. Texans are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on grass and 5-1-1 ATS as home favorites.
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Titans -6.5 at Colts: Titans lost a heart-breaker to the Saints and now head to the winless Colts, likely with rookie Locker at QB, and this kid is real good. Colts can't move the ball and cannot stop the pass or run. Ind lost to Pats by 7 and Ravens by 14, two straight late covers. The public is on the Titans with 71.85% although Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road as a favorite. Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 as home dogs.
The Pick: Titans -6.5
Bengals -6.5 at Rams: Bengals peaked too early and quickly falling out of contention losing 4 of 5, although against Elite teams. Rams are 32nd against the run so Benson should do well and Bengals D is strong and should shut-down Bradford/Jackson. Bengals are seeing 80.5% of the public bets, and are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 on road, but 7-21 ATS last 28 as favorites. Rams are 2-10 ATS last 12 as underdogs.
The Pick: Bengals -6.5
Lions -1.5 at Raiders: The Raiders have been trounced in 2 straight road games and get to return home, still likely without McFadden, but may get Moore back for Palmer. Raiders are 29th against the run and struggle against the pass as well, so Lions in for a big game offensively. Detroit gets Suh back and I am sure he will be angry. This game could get sloppy with penalties. Detroit is seeing 63.5% of the public action, and Lions are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 as a favorite, but 1-8-1 ATS last 10 as road favorites. Raiders are 14-4 ATS last 18 after an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdogs, but 7-21-2 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, so losing the equally matched games.
The Pick: Lions -1 - I do not see Raiders being able to stop the Lions pass rush or stopping Stafford
Pats -7 at Broncos: Tebow and the Broncos are hosting Tom Brady and the Pats and have won 6 straight with some wild finishes. Pats have won 5 straight but can't stop anyone, so Denver will actually be able to score points for once, and defensively can keep up with the Pats better than most teams. Both teams are 7-6 ATS this season, and 71% of public betting on the Pats. Pats are 8-3 ATS last 11 on the road and 15-7 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point road favorites. Broncos are 5-0 ATS as dogs.
The Pick: Broncos +7
Jets +3 at Eagles: The Eagles finally put together a good game and are 3 point favorites, a team Vegas has high hopes for and often a let down. Philly has Vick back and a glimmer of hope to make the playoffs. Jets are in a playoff race and should be able to contain the Eagles and force turnovers. Jets have won 3 straight. Jets are seeing 52.5% of the public betting, and Jets are 9-1 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point road underdogs. Eagles are 2-6 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 1-8 ATS last 9 at home.
The Pick: Jets +3
Browns +6.5 at Cardinals: Arizona has won 3 straight (5 of 6) and finding ways to pull out games. Cleveland may be without McCoy at QB and is 31st against the run, so Beanie Wells should have a big day. Cleveland has lost 6 of 7 and not scoring much. Arizona is seeing 63.3% of the betting action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7, but 1-5 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 8-2 ATS last 10 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: Cardinals -6.5 - Stats point to Browns cover, but Cards are hot
Ravens -2.5 at Chargers: Ravens have to head West for a showdown with the Chargers who are holding out hopes for a playoff berth. Baltimore has won 4 straight and the defense is back to the old D. Chargers with 2 blowout wins, but the Bills and Jags not exactly great teams. 60% of the public is on the Ravens, a team 4-0 ATS last 4 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 - Baltimore has had some weeks where they do not show up, but need to keep pace with Pitt and are finally running the ball 30X a game
Steelers +2.5 at 49ers: Steelers are ranked 1st against the pass and 6th against the run, playing great D, but a trip to the West Coast and question marks on Big Ben, Pouncey, and Harrison due to injury/suspension. 49ers had a lapse last week and look to get back to winning, now have lost 2 of 3. SF is 10-2-1 ATS this season. Steelers are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games, while 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS last 26 at home and 19-7 ATS on MNF.
The Pick: 49ers -2.5 - Tough game to ask Pitt. to win, and SF should steal this one
Time to look at Week 15 games, and getting close to the end of the season, and since I mainly only bet Football, going to be quiet on the blog.
Jacksonville +11.5 at Atlanta: Jags are coming off of an offensive explosion against the Bucs and may have confidence, and can always depend on MJD to bring his A-Game. Even in losses this year the team has played close games. Atlanta does not now how to put teams away and tends to be in close games, even against bad teams, but does rank 5th against the run. Both teams 5-7-1 ATS this season, and public favoring Jags with 52.1% of the action. Jags are 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdog of 10.5 or more, but jsut 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as road underdogs. Falcons are 2-5 ATS last 7 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Jags +11.5 - Gabbert making progress and can keep this a close game
Dallas -7 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs have lost 7 straight and blown out by Jags and Panthers, not exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL. Dallas will need this game badly and will exploit the Bucs lousy defense and shut down Blount. The public has 65.85% of the action on the Cowboys. Dallas is 7-18-1 ATS last 26 as favorites, and 2-12 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Tampa is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point underdogs, but 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Cowboys -7 - Forget the statistical trends favoring a cover, Bucs are getting worse by the week (good game to tease to -1)
Washington +7 at NY Giants: The Skins have only won 1 of their last 9 and injuries/suspensions testing the team's depth, but they did play well to give the Pats a scare last week. Giants are coming off a huge win and need to keep winning to win the division, but the pass defense can be exploited, even by Sexy Rexy. The public is siding with the Giants at 67.13%. Redskins are 5-1 ATS last 6 in the division, while Giants are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Redskins +7 - Giants tend to play down to weaker opponents and Washington will have no problem scoring.
Packers -14.5 at KC Chiefs: The Packers take their perfect record to Arrowhead and are rolling, but will be without Greg Jennings. Chiefs tend to play inspired at home and will have a new coach on the sidelines. KC can also defend the pass and pressure the QB, so actually match-up fairly well. The public has 79.75% of the action on the Packers. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS last 6 road games when favored by 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs, and 12-4 ATS last 16 as 10.5 or more point underdogs.
The Pick: Chiefs +14.5 - Playing the stat trends
Saints -6.5 at Vikings: Saints are not the same on the road, but at least this game is in a dome, so no battle with the elements and looking to lock-up a first round bye. Vikings gave Detroit a game last week and may get Peterson back, but 26th against the pass, so Brees should have a big day. Saints are 9-4 ATS this season and 82.75% of the public betting the Saints. Saints are 7-0 ATS last 7 on turf, but 3-11 ATS against losing record teams, and 2-5 ATS last 7 as road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Vikings are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as home dogs.
The Pick: Saints -6.5 - Brees will have a field day and Ponder making dumb decisions
Seahawks +3.5 at Bears: The Bears have lost 3 straight since losing Cutler and Forte, but a tiny chance Forte is back this week. Seattle is on fire winning 4 of 5 and running the ball well and playing strong defense. Seattle is seeing 58.3% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as underdogs, but 8-20-1 ATS as road underdogs. Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 as home favorites, but 4-10 ATS at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle +3.5 - Momentum late in the season is key, and Bears have to be down after last week's loss
Dolphins -1.5 at Bills: Miami has won 4 of its last 6 and although a poor performance last week, a team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and now with a new coach. They beat Buffalo 35-8 a couple weeks ago, and the Bills have lost 6 straight in unimpressive fashion. Dolphins are 6-1 ATS last 7 and 20-8-1 ATS last 29 road games. Bills are 1-5 ATS last 6 games.
The Pick: Dolphins -1.5
Panthers +6.5 at Texans: Houston is at home and has won 7 straight, although it has not been easy without Schaub and Johnson. Houston is 2nd in rushing and Panthers are 24th against the run. Carolina has a lot of offensive yards, but Texans D is top notch and could be a tough test for Cam Newton. Houston is 9-3-1 ATS this season, but Carolina seeing 53% of the public bets. Panthers are 3-8 ATS last as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-6 ATS last 7 as road dogs. Texans are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on grass and 5-1-1 ATS as home favorites.
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Titans -6.5 at Colts: Titans lost a heart-breaker to the Saints and now head to the winless Colts, likely with rookie Locker at QB, and this kid is real good. Colts can't move the ball and cannot stop the pass or run. Ind lost to Pats by 7 and Ravens by 14, two straight late covers. The public is on the Titans with 71.85% although Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road as a favorite. Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 as home dogs.
The Pick: Titans -6.5
Bengals -6.5 at Rams: Bengals peaked too early and quickly falling out of contention losing 4 of 5, although against Elite teams. Rams are 32nd against the run so Benson should do well and Bengals D is strong and should shut-down Bradford/Jackson. Bengals are seeing 80.5% of the public bets, and are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 on road, but 7-21 ATS last 28 as favorites. Rams are 2-10 ATS last 12 as underdogs.
The Pick: Bengals -6.5
Lions -1.5 at Raiders: The Raiders have been trounced in 2 straight road games and get to return home, still likely without McFadden, but may get Moore back for Palmer. Raiders are 29th against the run and struggle against the pass as well, so Lions in for a big game offensively. Detroit gets Suh back and I am sure he will be angry. This game could get sloppy with penalties. Detroit is seeing 63.5% of the public action, and Lions are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 as a favorite, but 1-8-1 ATS last 10 as road favorites. Raiders are 14-4 ATS last 18 after an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdogs, but 7-21-2 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, so losing the equally matched games.
The Pick: Lions -1 - I do not see Raiders being able to stop the Lions pass rush or stopping Stafford
Pats -7 at Broncos: Tebow and the Broncos are hosting Tom Brady and the Pats and have won 6 straight with some wild finishes. Pats have won 5 straight but can't stop anyone, so Denver will actually be able to score points for once, and defensively can keep up with the Pats better than most teams. Both teams are 7-6 ATS this season, and 71% of public betting on the Pats. Pats are 8-3 ATS last 11 on the road and 15-7 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point road favorites. Broncos are 5-0 ATS as dogs.
The Pick: Broncos +7
Jets +3 at Eagles: The Eagles finally put together a good game and are 3 point favorites, a team Vegas has high hopes for and often a let down. Philly has Vick back and a glimmer of hope to make the playoffs. Jets are in a playoff race and should be able to contain the Eagles and force turnovers. Jets have won 3 straight. Jets are seeing 52.5% of the public betting, and Jets are 9-1 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point road underdogs. Eagles are 2-6 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 1-8 ATS last 9 at home.
The Pick: Jets +3
Browns +6.5 at Cardinals: Arizona has won 3 straight (5 of 6) and finding ways to pull out games. Cleveland may be without McCoy at QB and is 31st against the run, so Beanie Wells should have a big day. Cleveland has lost 6 of 7 and not scoring much. Arizona is seeing 63.3% of the betting action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7, but 1-5 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 8-2 ATS last 10 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: Cardinals -6.5 - Stats point to Browns cover, but Cards are hot
Ravens -2.5 at Chargers: Ravens have to head West for a showdown with the Chargers who are holding out hopes for a playoff berth. Baltimore has won 4 straight and the defense is back to the old D. Chargers with 2 blowout wins, but the Bills and Jags not exactly great teams. 60% of the public is on the Ravens, a team 4-0 ATS last 4 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 - Baltimore has had some weeks where they do not show up, but need to keep pace with Pitt and are finally running the ball 30X a game
Steelers +2.5 at 49ers: Steelers are ranked 1st against the pass and 6th against the run, playing great D, but a trip to the West Coast and question marks on Big Ben, Pouncey, and Harrison due to injury/suspension. 49ers had a lapse last week and look to get back to winning, now have lost 2 of 3. SF is 10-2-1 ATS this season. Steelers are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games, while 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS last 26 at home and 19-7 ATS on MNF.
The Pick: 49ers -2.5 - Tough game to ask Pitt. to win, and SF should steal this one
Saturday, December 10, 2011
College Bowl Betting Breakdown
December 17th, New Mexico Bowl, Temple -7 vs. Wyoming
A match-up of two 8-4 teams with Temple being from the stronger conference, and a great running team against a Wyoming defense that has had problems stopping the run. Wyoming has faced quality opponents this year with TCU, Nebraska, and Boise St. and held their own. Wyoming is seeing 72.7% of the public action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, while Temple is 10-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
The Pick: Wyoming +7 - I see no real separation in terms of talent, and should be a close game with two teams that play different styles.
December 17th, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Ohio +2.5 vs. Utah St.
Ohio is looking for its first bowl win in 6 tries and coming off a 23-20 loss to Northern Illinois, but did beat Temple a few weeks ago and tends to be in close games. Utah St. won 5 straight, a team most famous for almost pulling the upset against Auburn to start the season. Ohio has a balanced attack while Utah St. prefers to run the ball. 56.25% of the public is with Ohio in this one, a team 9-3 ATS last 12 as underdogs. Utah St. is 0-5 ATS last 5 as favorites.
The Pick: Ohio +2.5 - Ohio is a veteran team with a lot of Seniors that will look to go out as winners.
December 17th, New Orleans Bowl, San Diego St. -5 vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are making their first bowl appearance in 41 years and have lost 2 games to finish the season. Aztecs RB Hillman was the 3rd leading rusher in the Nation this year and San Diego St. played Boise St. well a month ago is a 17 point defeat. This is sort of a home game for LA-Lafayette, but a team that lacks any real quality opponents this year and may be over-whelmed. The public has 77.8% of the action on the Ragin' Cajuns, a team 13-3 ATS last 16 as underdogs. Aztecs are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
The Pick: San Diego St. -5
December 20th, Beef O' Brady's Bowl, Florida Int'l -4 vs Marshall
FIU comes in with a 3 game win streak and Louisville is the common opponent, both teams with close wins. FIU's Hilton is the biggest playmaker in this one at WR, while Marshall has Vinny Curry at D-End, one of the nation's better edge rushers that will look to disrupt the Panthers. FIU is only allowing 19.4 points per game, 16th in the country. Marshall is allowing over 30 points per game and lost to Houston 63-28 and Tulsa 59-17. Marshall is 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games while FIU is 2-5 ATS last 7 games as favorites.
The Pick: FIU -4
December 21st, SD County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, TCU -10.5 vs. LA Tech
The Horned Frogs come in winning 7 straight and Pachall has looked great at QB this season, a team that handed Boise St. a loss. LA Tech has also won 7 straight, including wins against Nevada, Utah St. and Ole Miss, so not a team to be taken lightly. LA Tech should have success running the ball with its 3 RB scheme. TCU is 0-6 ATS last 6 non-conf. games, while the LA Tech Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS last 5 non-conf. games, and 5-1 ATS when 10.5 or more underdogs.
The Pick: LA Tech +10.5
December 22, Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona St. +13.5 at Boise St
Boise St. is angry with its one loss due to a missed FG at the end of the game and is then delivered a lousy bowl game against an ASU team that lost 4 straight and its coach was fired. Boise St. can throw the ball as good as anyone and also does not give up points, and will be looking to prove a point. ASU struggles on D but can put the ball up in the air with Osweiler. ASU is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or greater underdogs, and the Broncos are 8-2 ATS last 10 bowl games, a team always ready to play.
The Pick: Boise St -13.5
December 24th, Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Southern Miss -6 vs Nevada
Southern Miss was one of the most underrated teams in the country and proved that with a 49-28 win against an undefeated Houston team to end the season, a team that can really move the ball. Nevada was 7-5 and is a run-first team, 8th in the nation with 252 rushing yards per game, but a team that lacks quality wins on its schedule. Nevada is 1-5 ATS its last 6 and Southern Miss is 8-2-1 ATS last 11, but 0-4 ATS vs. the WAC.
The Pick: Southern Miss -6
December 26th, AdvoCare Independence Bowl, UNC +4.5 vs Missouri
Missouri won 3 straight to close the year, including impressive wins against Texas and Texas Tech, also beating Texas A&M this year, so the question is if they can beat a team not from Texas. Franklin, Josey and Moe are 3 big time playmakers for the Tigers. UNC has lost 4 of 6, but a close 3 point loss to BCS team V-Tech. Both teams were 6-6 ATS this season, and UNC 19-9 ATS last 28 as underdogs. Missouri is 3-8 ATS last 11 games at Neutral sites.
The Pick: UNC +4.5 - UNC has an under-rated defense to keep this close and contain the Tigers run game
December 27th, Little Ceasar's Bowl, Western Michigan +2.5 vs Purdue
A MAC vs. Big 10 match-up with a Western Michigan team that ranks 8th nationally with 330 yards a game through the air. Western Michigan faced both Illinois and Michigan in the Big 10 this year, losing each, but only 3 point defeat to Illinois. Purdue has been inconsistent all season and lack much offensive firepower. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS and Purdue just 5-6-1 ATS this season. Broncos are 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. Big 10 team, and 5-13-2 ATS last 20 as underdogs. Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as favorites, and 1-5 ATS vs the MAC, a pass-happy conference.
The Pick: Western Michigan +2.5
December 27th, Belk Bow, Louisville +3 vs. NC St.
Louisville has won 5 of 6 including a win vs. West Virginia, while NC St. recently romped a 7th ranked Clemson team, and beat UNC and Maryland. Both teams do everything mediocre, no big advantage here. Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but 1-7 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Cardinals are 12-1 ATS last 13 vs. ACC opponents and 6-0 ATS as underdogs.
The Pick: Louisville +3
December 28th, Military Bowl, Toledo -3 vs Air Force
Toledo off to a rough start won 7 of its last 8, and played Ohio St. tough to start the year, some big wins down the stretch, averaging 42.5 points a game this year. Air Force has won 4 of its last and has the ability to stay in games with 320 rushing yards per game. This game should be high scoring, take the Over, and Toledo is 8-3 ATS last 11 as favorites, while Air Force is 5-2 ATS last 7 as dogs. This is a passing team against a running team, a tough game to call.
The Pick: Toledo -3
December 28th, Holiday Bowl, Cal +3 vs Texas
Cal is a team that finished the year winning 3 of 4 although its 3 point loss to Stanford was the most impressive of the last 4. Cal is fairly balanced and does not stand out for doing anything all that well. Texas has won of the better rushing attacks but dropped 3 of the last 4 suffering multiple injuries. The common opponent is UCLA, Texas winning 49-20 and Cal losing 31-14. Cal is 0-6 ATS last 6 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs, while Texas is 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games as a favorite, and 7-18-1 ATS vs. winning record teams.
The Pick: Cal +3 - Texas was unimpressive every time I saw them play
December 29th, Champs Sports Bowl, Notre Dame +2.5 vs. Florida St
Notre Dame does not have a quality QB and FSU has an aggressive Defense, so this game could be a tough one. FSU really got things going with 6 wins in the last 7 and allows just 15 points per game, 4th best. The Irish are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs, but 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games as underdogs. FSU is 6-0-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games, and 9-1-1 ATS last 11 Neutral site games.
The Pick: FSU -2.5
December 29th, Alamo Bowl, Washington +9 vs. Baylor
Washington really tailed off to close the year losing 4 of its last 6, while Baylor scores 43.5 points a game and beat Oklahoma and Texas down the stretch, and Washington does not play well on defense. RG3 should have a huge game and set his sights for the NFL. Huskies are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games as underdogs, and 11-5-1 ATS last 17 overall. Baylor is 6-2 ATS last 8 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Baylor -9 - Potential Blowout
December 30th, Armed Forces Bowl, Tulsa +3 vs BYU
This is one of the more underrated quality bowl games with Tulsa only losing to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Houston, and Boise St. this season, all Top 10 teams. BYU finished 9-3 and also played a weak schedule, but does have a good defense. Cougars are 6-0 ATS vs. winning teams, while Tulsa is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 11-5 ATS on Turf.
The Pick: Tulsa +3 - Too close to call so take the underdog
December 30th, Pinstripe Bowl, Rutgers -1.5 vs Iowa St
Rutgers was 8-4 this season and has a WR with 109 receptions in Sanu, beating a good Cincy team 20-3 and only allowing 18.8 points per game. Iowa St. is 6-6 and had the fluke win vs OK. St, and has played a lot of quality opponents in the Big 12, holding their own in most of the games, a team that is tested. Rutgers has one of the better takeaway margins in football, a factor that could decide this game with two closely matched opponents. Iowa St is 5-0 ATS last 5 as underdogs, while Rutgers is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Rutgers -1.5
December 30th, Music City Bowl, Wake Forest +7 vs. Miss. St
Two 6-6 teams, and Miss. St is a team with a ton of talent that really under-delivered this season, 2-6 in the tough SEC, zero wins vs. quality opponents. Wake Forest beat FSU earlier this season, and hung around with Clemson, but then dropped a game 41-7 to Vandy, so coming in on a low note. Miss. St is 19th in the Nation allowing 20 points per game. Wake is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, while Miss. St is 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a favorite, while Wake is 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Wake Forest +7 - Expect a close defensive game
December 30th, Insight Bowl, Iowa +14 vs. Oklahoma
Iowa is 7-5 this season and beat Michigan a few weeks ago and has hung with most opponents, but a team without an identity on offense despite having talented WR's and RB's. Oklahoma has to be disappointed to be in this bowl, a team thought to be a potential champion, and Landry Jones will have his last chance to showcase his skills off to the pro scouts, and the team has been hit hard by injuries. Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 12-5-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs. Sooners are 2-5 ATS last 7 Bowl games.
The Pick: Oklahoma -14 - Too much offense in this one, not a good match-up for Iowa who has fared well recently in Bowl games
December 31st, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Texas A&M -10 vs Northwestern
A&M is a team stacked with NFL talent but lost 4 of its last 5 and coach Mike Sherman was a surprising casualty. Northwestern will have a lot of issues slowing down the Aggies, but should be able to put up points, a game made for the Over. Northwestern has a win vs. Nebraska this season, and stayed close in games vs. ranked teams. Aggies are 0-9 ATS last 9 Neutral Site games and 2-8 ATS as favorites last 10. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but just 7-15 ATS overall last 22.
The Pick: Northwestern +10 - Persa will find ways to keep his team in this one
December 31st, Sun Bowl, Utah +3.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets started the season 6-0 with the triple-option offense, but dropped 4 of its last 6. Utah won 4 of its last 5, losing to Colorado to end the year, and is a defensive minded team. Utes are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games as an underdog and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games as favorites.
The Pick: Utah +3 - Utah has a month to prepare for the G-Tech Offense and that should give them the edge
December 31st, Liberty Bowl, Cincy +2.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Cincy was 9-3 this season but lost key games to West Va. and Rutgers down the stretch without Collaros at QB. Vandy looked impressive in a 3 point defeat to Arkansas and 5 point loss to Florida. Bearcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 non-conf. games but 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games. Vandy is 6-1 ATS last 7 games and 4-1 ATS outside the conf.
The Pick: Vandy -2.5 - Played in the SEC and should find this one much easier
December 31st, Fight Hunger Bowl, Illinois -3 vs. UCLA
Two interim head coaches square off int his one, Illinois a team that started 6-0 and then lost 6 straight, a star WR in Jenkins and the 21st best D in the country for points allowed. UCLA lost 3 of its last 4 although it played Oregon tough and played a stronger schedule. Bruins are 5-12 ATS last 17 as underdogs, and the Illini are 5-15 ATS in non-conf. games.
The Pick: UCLA +3 - Ground game should win this one for Bruins
December 31st, Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Virginia +1.5 vs. Auburn
Virginia is 8-4 and Auburn is 7-5, but Auburn plays in the SEC. Virginia plays great defensively and beat FSU 14-13 recently, but then got shutout 38-0 to V-Tech to close the year. Auburn has been lit up by Alabama, LSU and Georgia, and although Dyer and Blake are reliable offensive weapons, Trotter at QB is shaky. The game being in the Georgia Dome is unfair for the Cavs. Auburn is only 4-8 ATS this year and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 vs the ACC. Virginia is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but Auburn is 7-1-1 ATS sa 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Virginia +1.5
January 2nd, Ticket City Bowl, Penn St. +5.5 vs. Houston
A very intriguing match-up with Case Keenum and the nation's top passing offense taking on a Big 10 team with the 5th best pass defense in the country, and Houston coming off a dismantling at the hands of Southern Miss. Penn. St got blown out by Wisconsin to end the year, and lacks any quality wins. Penn St is just 3-8-1 ATS this season and a team with a lot of distractions. Nittany Lions are 2-9-1 ATS vs. winning record teams and 0-5 ATS last 5 outside the conference. Cougars are 2-5 ATS last 7 non-conf. games and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Penn St. +5.5 - Penn St. D-Line will give Keenum problems and Houston is coming off a disappointing loss.
January 2nd, Outback Bowl, Michigan St. +3.5 vs. Georgia
This is going to be one of the more physical games with two stout defensive teams at 10-3. Michigan St. can really rush the QB and has a great running game and Cousins to Cunningham through the air. Georgia rallied off 10 straight wins before losing 42-10 to LSU, and will rely on Murray at QB. Spartans are 3-8 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 as favorites, and 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Georgia -3.5 - Georgia has a a great O-Line to handle Spartans upfront
January 2nd, Capital One Bowl, Nebraska +2.5 vs South Carolina
A low scoring game in the making with a South Carolina defense with multiple high round NFL prospects, while Nebraska likes to pound the football, 13th in rushing. South Carolina could struggle against the option like they did against Navy. Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs, while Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 0-5 ATS at Neutral Sites.
The Pick: Nebraska +2.5
January 2nd, Gator Bowl, Ohio St. +2 vs. Florida
Ohio St. has lost 3 straight and looking to next year with former Gator coach Urban Meyer waiting in the wings. Florida has looked equally unimpressive this year, two big name schools, but really a lousy game. Speed could be the deciding factor in this game, and favors the Gators. Gators are 5-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 20-6 ATS in non-conf. games. Ohio St. is 11-2 ATS last 13 non-conf. games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. SEC teams.
The Pick: Florida -2 - Speed kills
January 2nd, Rose Bowl, Wisconsin +6 vs Oregon
This is going to be a fun one, a lot of star power with Montee Ball and James at RB. Wisconsin closed the season strong and can really score points, while also 6th in the country on defense. Oregon could be in the title game if not for the loss to USC, and the up-tempo style is a new look for the Badger D. Badgers are 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog but 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. winning record teams. Ducks are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big 10 school and 2-5 ATS at neutral sites.
The Pick: Wisconsin +6 - Badgers will control the clock
January 2nd, Fiesta Bowl, Stanford +3.5 vs Oklahoma St.
Make no mistake about it, Oklahoma St. should be in the National Title game and likely would beat LSU, but instead faces Stanford. Stanford has one loss this season, that coming to Oregon, a high powered offense, and now faces the best offense in the country. Cowboys have the best QB-WR tandem in the country, but also susceptible defensively, but cause turnovers, much like the Packers in the NFL. Stanford is 7-0 ATS last 7 non-conf. games, while OK. St is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Pac. 12 and 22-4-2 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: OK. St -3.5
January 3rd, Sugar Bowl, Michigan -2.5 vs. Virginia Tech
The Wolverines struggled at times this season, but Denard Robinson usually finds ways to win games. The Hokies are similar and lose to Clemson to finish the season, disappointing, and a team that lacks consistency, although very talented on offense and sports a fast, tough defense. Michigan is 9-2 ATS last 11 non-conf. games but 1-7 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 8-20 ATS vs. winning record teams. Hokies are 14-6 ATS last 20 as underdogs, but 0-4 ATS out of conference.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +2.5 - Toughest game to pick
January 4th, Orange Bowl, West Virginia +3.5 vs. Clemson
WV won 3 straight to make this game and really not an impressive season for win margins against Big East opponents that were mediocre. Clemson started the season hot and then lost 3 of 4 before beating the Hokies to make this Bowl. Clemson is stacked with talent offensively. Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, but just 5-13 ATS vs. ACC and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Tigers are 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games and 2-6 ATS last 8 at Neutral sites.
The Pick: Clemson -3.5 - Too Much Talent
January 6th, Cotton Bowl, Kansas St. +7.5 vs Arkansas
K. St is use to being underdogs and have been covering spreads all year long, 9-3 ATS. They have quality wins against Texas, A&M, Miami, and Baylor. Klein at QB is a dual threat. Arkansas relies on the vertical attack and put up 44 on a top ranked South Carolina defense, only losing to LSU and Alabama this season. K-St is ranked 109th in pass defense and may be exposed against a SEC team. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS when underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 0-5 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites, 8-2 ATS vs. Big 12 teams, but -04 ATS last 4 Bowl games.
The Pick: Kansas St +7.5 - Hogs win, but in a close one
January 7th, Compass Bowl, SMU +5 vs. Pitt
This is an unusual match-up with the SMU out of Conf. USA with a quality win vs TCU this season, but lost to Tulsa, Navy, Houston, and Southern Miss, 4 bowl teams. Pitt will be without star RB Graham and is 0-6 against teams that made Bowl games. Mustangs are 11-23 ATS last 34 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Panthers are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall.
The Pick: SMU +5
January 8th, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Arkansas St. -1.5 vs. Northern Illinois
The 10-2 Red Wolves from the Sun Belt face the 10-3 Huskies from the MAC. Arkansas St. has won 9 straight games and ranked 15th in scoring defense. Northern Illinois has won 8 straight an beat the likes of Toledo and Western Michigan. Red Wolves are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorites, but 1-5 ATS last 6 when favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Huskies are 1-8 ATS last 9 at Neutral Sites and 5-14 ATS vs. winning teams. The MAC is a tougher conference but Arkansas St. plays better defense than MAC teams.
The Pick: Arkansas St. -1.5
January 9th, BCS Championship Game, Alabama +1 at LSU
A rematch of the 9-6 "thriller" and a travesty to allow for this to happen, but LSU is the better defense and the better offense and should win this game.
The Pick: LSU -1
A match-up of two 8-4 teams with Temple being from the stronger conference, and a great running team against a Wyoming defense that has had problems stopping the run. Wyoming has faced quality opponents this year with TCU, Nebraska, and Boise St. and held their own. Wyoming is seeing 72.7% of the public action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, while Temple is 10-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
The Pick: Wyoming +7 - I see no real separation in terms of talent, and should be a close game with two teams that play different styles.
December 17th, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Ohio +2.5 vs. Utah St.
Ohio is looking for its first bowl win in 6 tries and coming off a 23-20 loss to Northern Illinois, but did beat Temple a few weeks ago and tends to be in close games. Utah St. won 5 straight, a team most famous for almost pulling the upset against Auburn to start the season. Ohio has a balanced attack while Utah St. prefers to run the ball. 56.25% of the public is with Ohio in this one, a team 9-3 ATS last 12 as underdogs. Utah St. is 0-5 ATS last 5 as favorites.
The Pick: Ohio +2.5 - Ohio is a veteran team with a lot of Seniors that will look to go out as winners.
December 17th, New Orleans Bowl, San Diego St. -5 vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are making their first bowl appearance in 41 years and have lost 2 games to finish the season. Aztecs RB Hillman was the 3rd leading rusher in the Nation this year and San Diego St. played Boise St. well a month ago is a 17 point defeat. This is sort of a home game for LA-Lafayette, but a team that lacks any real quality opponents this year and may be over-whelmed. The public has 77.8% of the action on the Ragin' Cajuns, a team 13-3 ATS last 16 as underdogs. Aztecs are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
The Pick: San Diego St. -5
December 20th, Beef O' Brady's Bowl, Florida Int'l -4 vs Marshall
FIU comes in with a 3 game win streak and Louisville is the common opponent, both teams with close wins. FIU's Hilton is the biggest playmaker in this one at WR, while Marshall has Vinny Curry at D-End, one of the nation's better edge rushers that will look to disrupt the Panthers. FIU is only allowing 19.4 points per game, 16th in the country. Marshall is allowing over 30 points per game and lost to Houston 63-28 and Tulsa 59-17. Marshall is 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games while FIU is 2-5 ATS last 7 games as favorites.
The Pick: FIU -4
December 21st, SD County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, TCU -10.5 vs. LA Tech
The Horned Frogs come in winning 7 straight and Pachall has looked great at QB this season, a team that handed Boise St. a loss. LA Tech has also won 7 straight, including wins against Nevada, Utah St. and Ole Miss, so not a team to be taken lightly. LA Tech should have success running the ball with its 3 RB scheme. TCU is 0-6 ATS last 6 non-conf. games, while the LA Tech Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS last 5 non-conf. games, and 5-1 ATS when 10.5 or more underdogs.
The Pick: LA Tech +10.5
December 22, Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona St. +13.5 at Boise St
Boise St. is angry with its one loss due to a missed FG at the end of the game and is then delivered a lousy bowl game against an ASU team that lost 4 straight and its coach was fired. Boise St. can throw the ball as good as anyone and also does not give up points, and will be looking to prove a point. ASU struggles on D but can put the ball up in the air with Osweiler. ASU is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or greater underdogs, and the Broncos are 8-2 ATS last 10 bowl games, a team always ready to play.
The Pick: Boise St -13.5
December 24th, Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Southern Miss -6 vs Nevada
Southern Miss was one of the most underrated teams in the country and proved that with a 49-28 win against an undefeated Houston team to end the season, a team that can really move the ball. Nevada was 7-5 and is a run-first team, 8th in the nation with 252 rushing yards per game, but a team that lacks quality wins on its schedule. Nevada is 1-5 ATS its last 6 and Southern Miss is 8-2-1 ATS last 11, but 0-4 ATS vs. the WAC.
The Pick: Southern Miss -6
December 26th, AdvoCare Independence Bowl, UNC +4.5 vs Missouri
Missouri won 3 straight to close the year, including impressive wins against Texas and Texas Tech, also beating Texas A&M this year, so the question is if they can beat a team not from Texas. Franklin, Josey and Moe are 3 big time playmakers for the Tigers. UNC has lost 4 of 6, but a close 3 point loss to BCS team V-Tech. Both teams were 6-6 ATS this season, and UNC 19-9 ATS last 28 as underdogs. Missouri is 3-8 ATS last 11 games at Neutral sites.
The Pick: UNC +4.5 - UNC has an under-rated defense to keep this close and contain the Tigers run game
December 27th, Little Ceasar's Bowl, Western Michigan +2.5 vs Purdue
A MAC vs. Big 10 match-up with a Western Michigan team that ranks 8th nationally with 330 yards a game through the air. Western Michigan faced both Illinois and Michigan in the Big 10 this year, losing each, but only 3 point defeat to Illinois. Purdue has been inconsistent all season and lack much offensive firepower. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS and Purdue just 5-6-1 ATS this season. Broncos are 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. Big 10 team, and 5-13-2 ATS last 20 as underdogs. Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as favorites, and 1-5 ATS vs the MAC, a pass-happy conference.
The Pick: Western Michigan +2.5
December 27th, Belk Bow, Louisville +3 vs. NC St.
Louisville has won 5 of 6 including a win vs. West Virginia, while NC St. recently romped a 7th ranked Clemson team, and beat UNC and Maryland. Both teams do everything mediocre, no big advantage here. Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but 1-7 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Cardinals are 12-1 ATS last 13 vs. ACC opponents and 6-0 ATS as underdogs.
The Pick: Louisville +3
December 28th, Military Bowl, Toledo -3 vs Air Force
Toledo off to a rough start won 7 of its last 8, and played Ohio St. tough to start the year, some big wins down the stretch, averaging 42.5 points a game this year. Air Force has won 4 of its last and has the ability to stay in games with 320 rushing yards per game. This game should be high scoring, take the Over, and Toledo is 8-3 ATS last 11 as favorites, while Air Force is 5-2 ATS last 7 as dogs. This is a passing team against a running team, a tough game to call.
The Pick: Toledo -3
December 28th, Holiday Bowl, Cal +3 vs Texas
Cal is a team that finished the year winning 3 of 4 although its 3 point loss to Stanford was the most impressive of the last 4. Cal is fairly balanced and does not stand out for doing anything all that well. Texas has won of the better rushing attacks but dropped 3 of the last 4 suffering multiple injuries. The common opponent is UCLA, Texas winning 49-20 and Cal losing 31-14. Cal is 0-6 ATS last 6 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs, while Texas is 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games as a favorite, and 7-18-1 ATS vs. winning record teams.
The Pick: Cal +3 - Texas was unimpressive every time I saw them play
December 29th, Champs Sports Bowl, Notre Dame +2.5 vs. Florida St
Notre Dame does not have a quality QB and FSU has an aggressive Defense, so this game could be a tough one. FSU really got things going with 6 wins in the last 7 and allows just 15 points per game, 4th best. The Irish are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs, but 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games as underdogs. FSU is 6-0-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games, and 9-1-1 ATS last 11 Neutral site games.
The Pick: FSU -2.5
December 29th, Alamo Bowl, Washington +9 vs. Baylor
Washington really tailed off to close the year losing 4 of its last 6, while Baylor scores 43.5 points a game and beat Oklahoma and Texas down the stretch, and Washington does not play well on defense. RG3 should have a huge game and set his sights for the NFL. Huskies are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games as underdogs, and 11-5-1 ATS last 17 overall. Baylor is 6-2 ATS last 8 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Baylor -9 - Potential Blowout
December 30th, Armed Forces Bowl, Tulsa +3 vs BYU
This is one of the more underrated quality bowl games with Tulsa only losing to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Houston, and Boise St. this season, all Top 10 teams. BYU finished 9-3 and also played a weak schedule, but does have a good defense. Cougars are 6-0 ATS vs. winning teams, while Tulsa is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 11-5 ATS on Turf.
The Pick: Tulsa +3 - Too close to call so take the underdog
December 30th, Pinstripe Bowl, Rutgers -1.5 vs Iowa St
Rutgers was 8-4 this season and has a WR with 109 receptions in Sanu, beating a good Cincy team 20-3 and only allowing 18.8 points per game. Iowa St. is 6-6 and had the fluke win vs OK. St, and has played a lot of quality opponents in the Big 12, holding their own in most of the games, a team that is tested. Rutgers has one of the better takeaway margins in football, a factor that could decide this game with two closely matched opponents. Iowa St is 5-0 ATS last 5 as underdogs, while Rutgers is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Rutgers -1.5
December 30th, Music City Bowl, Wake Forest +7 vs. Miss. St
Two 6-6 teams, and Miss. St is a team with a ton of talent that really under-delivered this season, 2-6 in the tough SEC, zero wins vs. quality opponents. Wake Forest beat FSU earlier this season, and hung around with Clemson, but then dropped a game 41-7 to Vandy, so coming in on a low note. Miss. St is 19th in the Nation allowing 20 points per game. Wake is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, while Miss. St is 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a favorite, while Wake is 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Wake Forest +7 - Expect a close defensive game
December 30th, Insight Bowl, Iowa +14 vs. Oklahoma
Iowa is 7-5 this season and beat Michigan a few weeks ago and has hung with most opponents, but a team without an identity on offense despite having talented WR's and RB's. Oklahoma has to be disappointed to be in this bowl, a team thought to be a potential champion, and Landry Jones will have his last chance to showcase his skills off to the pro scouts, and the team has been hit hard by injuries. Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 12-5-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs. Sooners are 2-5 ATS last 7 Bowl games.
The Pick: Oklahoma -14 - Too much offense in this one, not a good match-up for Iowa who has fared well recently in Bowl games
December 31st, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Texas A&M -10 vs Northwestern
A&M is a team stacked with NFL talent but lost 4 of its last 5 and coach Mike Sherman was a surprising casualty. Northwestern will have a lot of issues slowing down the Aggies, but should be able to put up points, a game made for the Over. Northwestern has a win vs. Nebraska this season, and stayed close in games vs. ranked teams. Aggies are 0-9 ATS last 9 Neutral Site games and 2-8 ATS as favorites last 10. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but just 7-15 ATS overall last 22.
The Pick: Northwestern +10 - Persa will find ways to keep his team in this one
December 31st, Sun Bowl, Utah +3.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets started the season 6-0 with the triple-option offense, but dropped 4 of its last 6. Utah won 4 of its last 5, losing to Colorado to end the year, and is a defensive minded team. Utes are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games as an underdog and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games as favorites.
The Pick: Utah +3 - Utah has a month to prepare for the G-Tech Offense and that should give them the edge
December 31st, Liberty Bowl, Cincy +2.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Cincy was 9-3 this season but lost key games to West Va. and Rutgers down the stretch without Collaros at QB. Vandy looked impressive in a 3 point defeat to Arkansas and 5 point loss to Florida. Bearcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 non-conf. games but 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games. Vandy is 6-1 ATS last 7 games and 4-1 ATS outside the conf.
The Pick: Vandy -2.5 - Played in the SEC and should find this one much easier
December 31st, Fight Hunger Bowl, Illinois -3 vs. UCLA
Two interim head coaches square off int his one, Illinois a team that started 6-0 and then lost 6 straight, a star WR in Jenkins and the 21st best D in the country for points allowed. UCLA lost 3 of its last 4 although it played Oregon tough and played a stronger schedule. Bruins are 5-12 ATS last 17 as underdogs, and the Illini are 5-15 ATS in non-conf. games.
The Pick: UCLA +3 - Ground game should win this one for Bruins
December 31st, Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Virginia +1.5 vs. Auburn
Virginia is 8-4 and Auburn is 7-5, but Auburn plays in the SEC. Virginia plays great defensively and beat FSU 14-13 recently, but then got shutout 38-0 to V-Tech to close the year. Auburn has been lit up by Alabama, LSU and Georgia, and although Dyer and Blake are reliable offensive weapons, Trotter at QB is shaky. The game being in the Georgia Dome is unfair for the Cavs. Auburn is only 4-8 ATS this year and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 vs the ACC. Virginia is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but Auburn is 7-1-1 ATS sa 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Virginia +1.5
January 2nd, Ticket City Bowl, Penn St. +5.5 vs. Houston
A very intriguing match-up with Case Keenum and the nation's top passing offense taking on a Big 10 team with the 5th best pass defense in the country, and Houston coming off a dismantling at the hands of Southern Miss. Penn. St got blown out by Wisconsin to end the year, and lacks any quality wins. Penn St is just 3-8-1 ATS this season and a team with a lot of distractions. Nittany Lions are 2-9-1 ATS vs. winning record teams and 0-5 ATS last 5 outside the conference. Cougars are 2-5 ATS last 7 non-conf. games and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Penn St. +5.5 - Penn St. D-Line will give Keenum problems and Houston is coming off a disappointing loss.
January 2nd, Outback Bowl, Michigan St. +3.5 vs. Georgia
This is going to be one of the more physical games with two stout defensive teams at 10-3. Michigan St. can really rush the QB and has a great running game and Cousins to Cunningham through the air. Georgia rallied off 10 straight wins before losing 42-10 to LSU, and will rely on Murray at QB. Spartans are 3-8 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 as favorites, and 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Georgia -3.5 - Georgia has a a great O-Line to handle Spartans upfront
January 2nd, Capital One Bowl, Nebraska +2.5 vs South Carolina
A low scoring game in the making with a South Carolina defense with multiple high round NFL prospects, while Nebraska likes to pound the football, 13th in rushing. South Carolina could struggle against the option like they did against Navy. Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs, while Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 0-5 ATS at Neutral Sites.
The Pick: Nebraska +2.5
January 2nd, Gator Bowl, Ohio St. +2 vs. Florida
Ohio St. has lost 3 straight and looking to next year with former Gator coach Urban Meyer waiting in the wings. Florida has looked equally unimpressive this year, two big name schools, but really a lousy game. Speed could be the deciding factor in this game, and favors the Gators. Gators are 5-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 20-6 ATS in non-conf. games. Ohio St. is 11-2 ATS last 13 non-conf. games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. SEC teams.
The Pick: Florida -2 - Speed kills
January 2nd, Rose Bowl, Wisconsin +6 vs Oregon
This is going to be a fun one, a lot of star power with Montee Ball and James at RB. Wisconsin closed the season strong and can really score points, while also 6th in the country on defense. Oregon could be in the title game if not for the loss to USC, and the up-tempo style is a new look for the Badger D. Badgers are 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog but 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. winning record teams. Ducks are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big 10 school and 2-5 ATS at neutral sites.
The Pick: Wisconsin +6 - Badgers will control the clock
January 2nd, Fiesta Bowl, Stanford +3.5 vs Oklahoma St.
Make no mistake about it, Oklahoma St. should be in the National Title game and likely would beat LSU, but instead faces Stanford. Stanford has one loss this season, that coming to Oregon, a high powered offense, and now faces the best offense in the country. Cowboys have the best QB-WR tandem in the country, but also susceptible defensively, but cause turnovers, much like the Packers in the NFL. Stanford is 7-0 ATS last 7 non-conf. games, while OK. St is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Pac. 12 and 22-4-2 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: OK. St -3.5
January 3rd, Sugar Bowl, Michigan -2.5 vs. Virginia Tech
The Wolverines struggled at times this season, but Denard Robinson usually finds ways to win games. The Hokies are similar and lose to Clemson to finish the season, disappointing, and a team that lacks consistency, although very talented on offense and sports a fast, tough defense. Michigan is 9-2 ATS last 11 non-conf. games but 1-7 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 8-20 ATS vs. winning record teams. Hokies are 14-6 ATS last 20 as underdogs, but 0-4 ATS out of conference.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +2.5 - Toughest game to pick
January 4th, Orange Bowl, West Virginia +3.5 vs. Clemson
WV won 3 straight to make this game and really not an impressive season for win margins against Big East opponents that were mediocre. Clemson started the season hot and then lost 3 of 4 before beating the Hokies to make this Bowl. Clemson is stacked with talent offensively. Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, but just 5-13 ATS vs. ACC and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Tigers are 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games and 2-6 ATS last 8 at Neutral sites.
The Pick: Clemson -3.5 - Too Much Talent
January 6th, Cotton Bowl, Kansas St. +7.5 vs Arkansas
K. St is use to being underdogs and have been covering spreads all year long, 9-3 ATS. They have quality wins against Texas, A&M, Miami, and Baylor. Klein at QB is a dual threat. Arkansas relies on the vertical attack and put up 44 on a top ranked South Carolina defense, only losing to LSU and Alabama this season. K-St is ranked 109th in pass defense and may be exposed against a SEC team. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS when underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 0-5 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites, 8-2 ATS vs. Big 12 teams, but -04 ATS last 4 Bowl games.
The Pick: Kansas St +7.5 - Hogs win, but in a close one
January 7th, Compass Bowl, SMU +5 vs. Pitt
This is an unusual match-up with the SMU out of Conf. USA with a quality win vs TCU this season, but lost to Tulsa, Navy, Houston, and Southern Miss, 4 bowl teams. Pitt will be without star RB Graham and is 0-6 against teams that made Bowl games. Mustangs are 11-23 ATS last 34 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Panthers are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall.
The Pick: SMU +5
January 8th, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Arkansas St. -1.5 vs. Northern Illinois
The 10-2 Red Wolves from the Sun Belt face the 10-3 Huskies from the MAC. Arkansas St. has won 9 straight games and ranked 15th in scoring defense. Northern Illinois has won 8 straight an beat the likes of Toledo and Western Michigan. Red Wolves are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorites, but 1-5 ATS last 6 when favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Huskies are 1-8 ATS last 9 at Neutral Sites and 5-14 ATS vs. winning teams. The MAC is a tougher conference but Arkansas St. plays better defense than MAC teams.
The Pick: Arkansas St. -1.5
January 9th, BCS Championship Game, Alabama +1 at LSU
A rematch of the 9-6 "thriller" and a travesty to allow for this to happen, but LSU is the better defense and the better offense and should win this game.
The Pick: LSU -1
Friday, December 9, 2011
NFL Week 14 Analysis and Picks
We head into the last 1/4 of the football season sadly, and injuries are taking a toll on many teams, and still a lot of playoff spots up for grabs. I had another great week of picks last week, and early indications for this week are we have a lot of very tough spreads.
Colts +16.5 at Ravens: The Colts managed to cover last week as big underdogs against the Pats, and this week face the Ravens, a team with a much better defense. Baltimore has not exactly been blowing teams out, but this one is a major mis-match and could see a score around 38-10. The public is on the Colts with 50.2%, a potential trap with a short memory seeing last week's cover, and Colts are just 3-9 ATS this season. Colts are 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs, while Ravens are 11-5 ATS last 16 as a 10.5 or more home favorite.
The Pick: Baltimore -16.5
Texans +3 at Bengals: The Bengals are at home in a real important game to stay alive in the Wildcard hunt and have lost 3 of 4, although to the Steelers and Ravens. Houston is managing to win with whoever is at QB, playing great defense and running the football, but a tough road game for the situation and Andre Johnson back out of the lineup. Cincy is 20th against the run, so Houston could dominate the clock. Houston is seeing the public action at 53.5%. Houston is 1-4 ATS last 5 as road underdogs, but 5-2 ATS last 7 as road underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. Bengals are just 7-18-1 last 26 ATS as home favorites, and 7-20 ATS last 27 as favorites overall.
The Pick: Houston +3
Chiefs +10.5 at Jets: The Jets are at home and coming off two straight wins, and get a 3rd straight easy match-up. The Jets are a team that struggles offensively and the Chiefs can play great defense at times. Chiefs beat the Bears by 7 last week and held the Steelers to 13 the week prior, so this spread looks a bit wide. The Jets are seeing 50.9% of the bets from the public, mixed action. Chiefs are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 12-3 ATS last 15 as underdogs of 10.5 or more points. Although the Chiefs will also struggle to score, it should be an ugly FG game.
The Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Vikings +10 at Lions: The Lions have lost 3 of 4 yet are 10 point favorites in a rivalry game at home without Suh. The Vikings can't stop the pass, which makes for a tough match-up, and also likely without Peterson again at RB. Jared Allen maid some stupid comments about the city of Detroit this week that should have the Lions fired up, but also could see more lack of discipline. Vikings have lost 4 straight buy have played pretty well, Ponder looking good and Harvin an explosive weapon. The underdog Vikings seeing 52.3% of the public action. This line opened at -7 and has been pushed to -10. Vikings are 4-11-2 last 17 ATS as an underdog, while Lions are just 9-19 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Vikings +10 - Lions are not the team they were to start the season, and will need to fight to win this one
Saints -4 at Titans: The Saints are rolling with 4 straight wins, but have struggled on the road, and the Titans are firmly in the playoff race, and have won 3 of 4. New Orleans is a big public favorite this week with 73.13% of the action. Saints are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite, while Titans are 5-0 ATS last 5 as home underdogof 3.5 to 10 points and 9-2 ATS last 11 as home underdog.
The Pick: Titans +4 - Bet Trends Favor the Cover and Betting Against the Squares
Eagles +3 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have ripped off 4 wins in the last 5 and Vegas finally seeing the Eagles as underdogs after there lousy performance last week, a team without any heart. Eagles have lost 4 of 5 but get Vick back this week, but the Dolphins D has been stingy and he will be under heat all game. Miami is seeing 59.77% of the public action, but are just 9-29 ATS last 38 as home favorites. Eagles are 9-1 ATS last 10 as road underdogs, and 21-7 last 28 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Eagles +3 - I'm going out on a limb and thinking they finally put together a complete game and fight for Reid's job
Patriots -9 at Redskins: Pats have won 4 straight and head to Washington, a team that has lost 7 of 8, but some bright spots along the way. Skins are actually ranked 9 against the pass, so the match-up is not a terrible one. Pats are heavy public favorites at 73.4%. Pats are 27-12 ATS last 39 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite, while Skins are 2-6 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Pats -9
Falcons -2.5 at Panthers: The Falcons have looked very shaky this season and Matt Ryan is off, Roddy White is dropping balls, and Julio Jones can not stay healthy, but still a team full of talent. Panthers have won 2 straight and have played well all year, but lost the first match-up 31-17. Panthers have trouble stopping the run so Atlanta may rely on Turner this game. Falcons are seeing 56.56% of the public action, and are 12-1 ATS last 13 after a game in which they scored less than 15 points, so a team that responds well. Panthers are 4-11 ATS last 15 as an underdog.
The Pick: Falcons -2.5
Bucs -2 at Jags: Tampa has lost 6 straight and a team really falling apart, without Freeman last week. Jacksonville has lost 3 straight and on a short week, exposed defensively against the Chargers, but Jones Drew continues to run well, and Bucs are 29th against the run. Tampa is seeing 60.6% of the public betting, and are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 road games, but just 3-13-1 ATS last 17 as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points. Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 after a Monday night game and 1-5 ATS last 6 as home dogs.
The Pick: Jags +2 - I'll take the home team in a toss-up, ugly game though
49ers -4 at Cardinals: The 49ers got back on track last week, but without star LB Willis on D this week. SF runs the ball and stops the run, the making of a champion. Arizona has quietly won 4 of its last 5 games, effective on offense and defense / special teams playing well. The 49ers are seeing 77% of the public action, a 10-1-1 ATS team this season. SF is 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road favorites, and Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cardinals +4 - Cards are surprising people and match-up well for a close game, also a statistical trend play
Bears +3.5 at Broncos: The Bears have dropped 2 straight since losing Tebow and Forte to injuries, and look terrible against the Chiefs at home last week, so in a game on the road against a Broncos team that has won 5 straight, it seems like an easy pick. Denver has won each of its last 3 games by 3, 3, and 4 points, always close games for Tebow. Denver relies on the run and the Bears are 8th against the run, and Urlacher should be able to contain Tebow. Teams are soon going to figure a way to stop this Broncos rushing attack. The public has 62.5% of the action on the Broncos, and Chicago is 7-19 ATS last 26 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Denver is 2-14 ATS last 16 games as home favorites of 3.5 to 10, so something has to give.
The Pick: Denver -3.5 - As much as I hate this pick, Chicago is missing all of its weapons and will struggle to score
Raiders +11.5 at Packers: A match-up of two teams 8-4 ATS this season, and the Packers had a scare last week, their vulnerabilities on defense an issue. The Raiders played their poorest game of the season and will be missing McFadden, Moore and Ford again, making this an extremely tough mission for Palmer, thought he Raiders need a win to keep pace with the Broncos. Oakland will attempt to control the tempo of the game with Michael Bush, and the Packers are a turnover forcing team, and Oakland does turn the ball over. Oakland can sell-out against the pass on defense and has some healthy DB's returning, but vulnerable to the deep ball. Packers are seeing 68.4% of the public action, but are just 8-17-2 ATS last 27 as 10.5 point favorite or greater. Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs and as a lifelong Raider fan the team does play much better against quality opponents.
The Pick: Packers -11.5 - This would be a different game if the Raiders were healthy, but Rodgers is likely set to carve us up
Bills +7 at Chargers: The Chargers finally showed up to play last week snapping a 6 game skid and Rivers has his weapons back. Buffalo is on a 5 game slide and not taking care of the football. Chargers with 59% of the action, a team 1-4 ATS last 5 as favorites at home, but 24-9 ATS last 33 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Bills are 10-4 ATS last 14 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Chargers -7 - SD looks to be ready to make their late season push, may be too little, too late however
Giants +3 at Cowboys: Giants have lost 4 straight, although a good performance last week, while Dallas had a 4 game win streak snapped by the Cardinals last week and has looked shaky at times. The public likes the Giants with 70.5% of the action, although just 1-4 ATS last 5 versus NFC East teams. Dallas is 3-9 ATS last 12 as home favorites, and 3-13-1 ATS overall as favorites. This game should be an offensive game, and expect the ball to be in the air a lot.
The Pick: Giants +3 - I trust Eli more than Romo in big games
Rams +9.5 at Seahawks: Seattle has found a bit of a groove and at home again, looking for lynch to run wild again. Rams are struggling on both sides of the ball and lost 24-7 just 3 weeks ago to Seattle. Seattle is 7-4-1 ATS and Rams 2-12 ATS this season and only 55% of the public on Seattle. Rams are 2-9 ATS last 11 as underdogs, and Seattle is 8-2 ATS last 10 at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle -9.5
Colts +16.5 at Ravens: The Colts managed to cover last week as big underdogs against the Pats, and this week face the Ravens, a team with a much better defense. Baltimore has not exactly been blowing teams out, but this one is a major mis-match and could see a score around 38-10. The public is on the Colts with 50.2%, a potential trap with a short memory seeing last week's cover, and Colts are just 3-9 ATS this season. Colts are 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs, while Ravens are 11-5 ATS last 16 as a 10.5 or more home favorite.
The Pick: Baltimore -16.5
Texans +3 at Bengals: The Bengals are at home in a real important game to stay alive in the Wildcard hunt and have lost 3 of 4, although to the Steelers and Ravens. Houston is managing to win with whoever is at QB, playing great defense and running the football, but a tough road game for the situation and Andre Johnson back out of the lineup. Cincy is 20th against the run, so Houston could dominate the clock. Houston is seeing the public action at 53.5%. Houston is 1-4 ATS last 5 as road underdogs, but 5-2 ATS last 7 as road underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. Bengals are just 7-18-1 last 26 ATS as home favorites, and 7-20 ATS last 27 as favorites overall.
The Pick: Houston +3
Chiefs +10.5 at Jets: The Jets are at home and coming off two straight wins, and get a 3rd straight easy match-up. The Jets are a team that struggles offensively and the Chiefs can play great defense at times. Chiefs beat the Bears by 7 last week and held the Steelers to 13 the week prior, so this spread looks a bit wide. The Jets are seeing 50.9% of the bets from the public, mixed action. Chiefs are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 12-3 ATS last 15 as underdogs of 10.5 or more points. Although the Chiefs will also struggle to score, it should be an ugly FG game.
The Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Vikings +10 at Lions: The Lions have lost 3 of 4 yet are 10 point favorites in a rivalry game at home without Suh. The Vikings can't stop the pass, which makes for a tough match-up, and also likely without Peterson again at RB. Jared Allen maid some stupid comments about the city of Detroit this week that should have the Lions fired up, but also could see more lack of discipline. Vikings have lost 4 straight buy have played pretty well, Ponder looking good and Harvin an explosive weapon. The underdog Vikings seeing 52.3% of the public action. This line opened at -7 and has been pushed to -10. Vikings are 4-11-2 last 17 ATS as an underdog, while Lions are just 9-19 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Vikings +10 - Lions are not the team they were to start the season, and will need to fight to win this one
Saints -4 at Titans: The Saints are rolling with 4 straight wins, but have struggled on the road, and the Titans are firmly in the playoff race, and have won 3 of 4. New Orleans is a big public favorite this week with 73.13% of the action. Saints are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite, while Titans are 5-0 ATS last 5 as home underdogof 3.5 to 10 points and 9-2 ATS last 11 as home underdog.
The Pick: Titans +4 - Bet Trends Favor the Cover and Betting Against the Squares
Eagles +3 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have ripped off 4 wins in the last 5 and Vegas finally seeing the Eagles as underdogs after there lousy performance last week, a team without any heart. Eagles have lost 4 of 5 but get Vick back this week, but the Dolphins D has been stingy and he will be under heat all game. Miami is seeing 59.77% of the public action, but are just 9-29 ATS last 38 as home favorites. Eagles are 9-1 ATS last 10 as road underdogs, and 21-7 last 28 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Eagles +3 - I'm going out on a limb and thinking they finally put together a complete game and fight for Reid's job
Patriots -9 at Redskins: Pats have won 4 straight and head to Washington, a team that has lost 7 of 8, but some bright spots along the way. Skins are actually ranked 9 against the pass, so the match-up is not a terrible one. Pats are heavy public favorites at 73.4%. Pats are 27-12 ATS last 39 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite, while Skins are 2-6 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Pats -9
Falcons -2.5 at Panthers: The Falcons have looked very shaky this season and Matt Ryan is off, Roddy White is dropping balls, and Julio Jones can not stay healthy, but still a team full of talent. Panthers have won 2 straight and have played well all year, but lost the first match-up 31-17. Panthers have trouble stopping the run so Atlanta may rely on Turner this game. Falcons are seeing 56.56% of the public action, and are 12-1 ATS last 13 after a game in which they scored less than 15 points, so a team that responds well. Panthers are 4-11 ATS last 15 as an underdog.
The Pick: Falcons -2.5
Bucs -2 at Jags: Tampa has lost 6 straight and a team really falling apart, without Freeman last week. Jacksonville has lost 3 straight and on a short week, exposed defensively against the Chargers, but Jones Drew continues to run well, and Bucs are 29th against the run. Tampa is seeing 60.6% of the public betting, and are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 road games, but just 3-13-1 ATS last 17 as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points. Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 after a Monday night game and 1-5 ATS last 6 as home dogs.
The Pick: Jags +2 - I'll take the home team in a toss-up, ugly game though
49ers -4 at Cardinals: The 49ers got back on track last week, but without star LB Willis on D this week. SF runs the ball and stops the run, the making of a champion. Arizona has quietly won 4 of its last 5 games, effective on offense and defense / special teams playing well. The 49ers are seeing 77% of the public action, a 10-1-1 ATS team this season. SF is 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road favorites, and Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cardinals +4 - Cards are surprising people and match-up well for a close game, also a statistical trend play
Bears +3.5 at Broncos: The Bears have dropped 2 straight since losing Tebow and Forte to injuries, and look terrible against the Chiefs at home last week, so in a game on the road against a Broncos team that has won 5 straight, it seems like an easy pick. Denver has won each of its last 3 games by 3, 3, and 4 points, always close games for Tebow. Denver relies on the run and the Bears are 8th against the run, and Urlacher should be able to contain Tebow. Teams are soon going to figure a way to stop this Broncos rushing attack. The public has 62.5% of the action on the Broncos, and Chicago is 7-19 ATS last 26 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Denver is 2-14 ATS last 16 games as home favorites of 3.5 to 10, so something has to give.
The Pick: Denver -3.5 - As much as I hate this pick, Chicago is missing all of its weapons and will struggle to score
Raiders +11.5 at Packers: A match-up of two teams 8-4 ATS this season, and the Packers had a scare last week, their vulnerabilities on defense an issue. The Raiders played their poorest game of the season and will be missing McFadden, Moore and Ford again, making this an extremely tough mission for Palmer, thought he Raiders need a win to keep pace with the Broncos. Oakland will attempt to control the tempo of the game with Michael Bush, and the Packers are a turnover forcing team, and Oakland does turn the ball over. Oakland can sell-out against the pass on defense and has some healthy DB's returning, but vulnerable to the deep ball. Packers are seeing 68.4% of the public action, but are just 8-17-2 ATS last 27 as 10.5 point favorite or greater. Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs and as a lifelong Raider fan the team does play much better against quality opponents.
The Pick: Packers -11.5 - This would be a different game if the Raiders were healthy, but Rodgers is likely set to carve us up
Bills +7 at Chargers: The Chargers finally showed up to play last week snapping a 6 game skid and Rivers has his weapons back. Buffalo is on a 5 game slide and not taking care of the football. Chargers with 59% of the action, a team 1-4 ATS last 5 as favorites at home, but 24-9 ATS last 33 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Bills are 10-4 ATS last 14 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Chargers -7 - SD looks to be ready to make their late season push, may be too little, too late however
Giants +3 at Cowboys: Giants have lost 4 straight, although a good performance last week, while Dallas had a 4 game win streak snapped by the Cardinals last week and has looked shaky at times. The public likes the Giants with 70.5% of the action, although just 1-4 ATS last 5 versus NFC East teams. Dallas is 3-9 ATS last 12 as home favorites, and 3-13-1 ATS overall as favorites. This game should be an offensive game, and expect the ball to be in the air a lot.
The Pick: Giants +3 - I trust Eli more than Romo in big games
Rams +9.5 at Seahawks: Seattle has found a bit of a groove and at home again, looking for lynch to run wild again. Rams are struggling on both sides of the ball and lost 24-7 just 3 weeks ago to Seattle. Seattle is 7-4-1 ATS and Rams 2-12 ATS this season and only 55% of the public on Seattle. Rams are 2-9 ATS last 11 as underdogs, and Seattle is 8-2 ATS last 10 at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle -9.5
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Thursday Night Football! Browns at Steelers
The Line: Browns +14 at Steelers
The Game: Big Ben has looked a bit uncomfortable with the broken thumb, and the Browns have a top ranked pass defense. However, the Steelers are kicking it into a new gear and are awesome at home.
Bet Trends: 66% of the public on the Steelers. Browns are 1-8 ATS last 9 as underdogs, and Steelers are 8-2 ATS vs AFC North.
The Pick: Steelers -14 - Steelers romped the Bengals and Browns are nowhere near as good as Bengals, so Steelers due for another big easy win.
The Game: Big Ben has looked a bit uncomfortable with the broken thumb, and the Browns have a top ranked pass defense. However, the Steelers are kicking it into a new gear and are awesome at home.
Bet Trends: 66% of the public on the Steelers. Browns are 1-8 ATS last 9 as underdogs, and Steelers are 8-2 ATS vs AFC North.
The Pick: Steelers -14 - Steelers romped the Bengals and Browns are nowhere near as good as Bengals, so Steelers due for another big easy win.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
NFL Week 13 Picks
After putting this together I realized I picked 12 road teams this week and just 3 home teams, so this is going out on a limb this week.
Tennessee +3 at Buffalo: The 6-5 Titans head on the road with playoff hopes still alive, while the Bills have lost 4 straight due to turnovers, and now without a running game with Fred Jackson gone for the season. Chris Johnson is getting his swagger back and should have Chiefs cheeproblem putting up yards on the Bills D. The public has 57% of the action on the Bills. Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog, and Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS versus winning record teams.
The Pick: Tennessee +3 - Lock of the Week
Kansas City +7 at Chicago: Two teams that have lost their starting QB's and it looks like Palko gets the start over Orton for KC, who gave the Steelers a lot of trouble last week with a strong defensive line push. Chicago is set to start Hanie again, who can make plays, but also makes a lot of mistakes. KC is vulnerable against the run, ranked 26th, so Forte should have a strong day if used properly. Both teams are 6-5 ATS this season and 56% of public on the Bears. Chiefs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, and 11-5 ATS last 16 as road underdogs. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as home favorites. There are strong statisical trends that favor the Under is this game as well.
The Pick: Chiefs +7 - KC battles and should force turnovers
Oakland +3 at Miami: The Raiders have won 3 in a row and once again without McFadden, Moore and Ford, top 3 weapons on offense, and starting linebacker McClain may not play due to an off the field incident, the leader on the defense and plenty of distractions coming into the week. Miami has a stout defense that has not allowed teams to score lately, and Matt Moore is finding success to Marshall. The Raiders tend to shut down #1 receivers with Routt, but Reggie Bush's edge speed is a concern. Miami is ranked 7th against the run, which the Raiders try to set the tone with a physical running game. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS this season and 61.95% of the public taking them as 3 point dogs. Oakland is 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road, but just 7-21-2 ATS last 30 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs. Miami is 5-0 ATS last 5 but just 8-29 ATS last 37 as a home favorite.
The Pick: Oakland +3 - Raiders find ways to make games close, but have tended to come out a winner this year, and would take the money line.
Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh: Cincy has not lost a game by more than 7 points all season, and head to Pittsburgh for a key divisional game, and Big Ben's hurting thumb may be a factor in the colder weather. This should be a defensive battle, and the tea,s played just two weeks ago with a 24-17 Steelers win. The public likes the Steelers in a tight margin, just 50.64%. Cincy is 6-1-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, while Steelers are 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. AFC North.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Bengals are for real, they play D and Dalton is smart and makes plays
NY Jets -2.5 at Washington: At 6-5 the Jets still have an opportunity to make the playoffs despite a disappointing season. Washington has played better with Grossman back, but injuries have really hurt the team. The Jets match-up well in this game. The public is heavy on the Jets at 72.3%. NY is 10-4 ATS against losing record teams, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road. Skins are 8-17-2 ATS last 27 at home, and 4-10-7 ATS last 21 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.
The Pick: Jets -2.5 - Jets will contain the Skins passing game and make them lead on a weak ground game
Atlanta -2.5 at Houston: The Falcons have quietly won 5 of 6 and are on the road to face the Texans who will be starting TJ Yates at QB. Atlanta is 2nd against the run which is Houston's strength, so a tough match-up, though Houston finds ways to win and is ranked Top 5 in most defensive categories. Atlanta is seeing 69.6% of the public action, though Texans are 7-3-1 ATS this season. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road, while Houston is 1-5 ATS last 6 as underdogs.
The Pick: Atlanta -2.5 - Houston has too many issues at QB and will struggle to run on Atlanta
Carolina +1.5 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs are at home after losing 5 straight, 3 on the road, but usually put up a good fight. Carolina can't stop the run, so Blount could control the game for the Bucs. Freeman is banged up for Tampa and is a major concern heading into the game. The public is leaning on the underdog with Panthers seeing 55% of the action. Panthers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 as road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. Bucs are 7-20 ATS last 27 at home.
The Pick: Panthers +1.5 - Carolina should find a way to win if Newton takes care of the ball
Denver +1.5 at Minnesota: The Vikings will once again be without Peterson as the Tebow-show rolls into town, although Minnesota has an athletic D-Line that could contain the option game. Vikings have lost 3 straight and lack much of an offense, and Denver has been strong defensively lately. Denver is seeing 68.85% of the public action as the Tebow hype hits a record high. Denver is 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road, while Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as home favorites.
The Pick: Denver +1.5 - Tebow finds ways to win and a short-handed Vikings team will struggle to score (the Under looks solid here as well)
Indianapolis +21 at New England: The winless Colts have to face the Pats on the road, a former rivalry game turned into a mis-match. For the 10th time in history there is a 20 point spread in a game, favorites just 2-7 ATS in prior 9. The hapless Colts have gone 2-9 ATS this season and 67.4% of public on the Pats here. Colts are 10-3 ATS last 13 as underdog of 10.5 or greater, while Pats are just 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Colts +21 - Statistical Trends Favor a Cover and Game Means More to Colts due to Rivalry
Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland: The Browns at home and have lost 4 of 5, but rank 1st against the pass. The Browns have stayed in close games lately. Baltimore should have no problem shutting down the Browns offense, and have won 4 of the last 5. Ray Rice should have one of his better games of the season. The public is picking the Ravens, 71.7% of the action. Ravens are a weak 4-12 ATS last 16 on road as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 1-7 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5
St Louis +13.5 at SF 49ers: The Rams are 2-9 and Bradford re-injured his ankle and status is uncertain for this week, and on the road have a tough match-up. 49ers had a long week to think about the loss to the Ravens and should be ready to get back on track this week. Rams are 32nd against the run, so Gore due for a big week. The public picking SF with 63.5% of the action, a team 9-1-1 ATS this season. Rams are 3-13 ATS last 16 on road as 10.5 or greater underdog, and SF is 7-0 ATS last 7 as home favorite.
The Pick: 49ers -13.5
Dallas -4.5 at Arizona: Arizona has Kolb back in at QB, though Skleton looked to be the better option, and has won 3 of its last 4, a solid D and awesome special teams. Dallas comes in rising a 4 game win streak, two straight close ones. Arizona is 25th against the pass so Romo due for a big game. Dallas is just 4-6-1 ATS this year and line opened at -6.5, but 70.35% of the public is betting Cowboys. Dallas is only 17-35-2 ATS in 54 games as road favorites, and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 as favorites overall. Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 at home as a 3.5 to 10 point dog.
The Pick: Cardinals +4.5 - Statistical Trends Pick Here
Green Bay -6 at NY Giants: The Giants have lost 3 straight and have looked sloppy at best. Packers bring their undefeated record into town and explosive offense, although giving up a ton of yards through the air, although great at forcing turnovers. The public likes the Packers with 70.6% of the action, and are 8-3 ATS this season. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road. Giants are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but only 1-6-1 ATS in games after a loss.
The Pick: Packers -6.5
Detroit +10 at New Orleans Saints: Detroit is 7-4 and still a 9 point dog with a hot Saints team at home. Lions lost a tough one to the Packers and had a long week, but Suh will be suspended for this game, a hit to the D. Saints have been clicking on offense and putting up big points, but Lions are 6th against the Pass and Saints 25th against the pass against a pass-happy Lions team. New Orleans is seeing 54.4% of the public action. Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, but just 2-7 ATS last 9 December games. Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in December games, and 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Pick: Lions +10 - Detroit matches up well with the passing game and should keep it close in a prime-time game.
San Diego -3 at Jacksonville: San Diego has lost 6 straight, but still favorites in a road game, a team with talent, but no heart, and Rivers with way too many turnovers, also a coach in Norv Turner on the way out. Jags are not a team to roll over and can stop the pass, ranked 4th. Chargers are 25th against the run, so MJD a good game ahead. San Diego with 69.77% of the betting action, a team just 2-9 ATS this season. Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as road favorites and Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as underdogs.
The Pick: Jags +3
Tennessee +3 at Buffalo: The 6-5 Titans head on the road with playoff hopes still alive, while the Bills have lost 4 straight due to turnovers, and now without a running game with Fred Jackson gone for the season. Chris Johnson is getting his swagger back and should have Chiefs cheeproblem putting up yards on the Bills D. The public has 57% of the action on the Bills. Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog, and Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS versus winning record teams.
The Pick: Tennessee +3 - Lock of the Week
Kansas City +7 at Chicago: Two teams that have lost their starting QB's and it looks like Palko gets the start over Orton for KC, who gave the Steelers a lot of trouble last week with a strong defensive line push. Chicago is set to start Hanie again, who can make plays, but also makes a lot of mistakes. KC is vulnerable against the run, ranked 26th, so Forte should have a strong day if used properly. Both teams are 6-5 ATS this season and 56% of public on the Bears. Chiefs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, and 11-5 ATS last 16 as road underdogs. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as home favorites. There are strong statisical trends that favor the Under is this game as well.
The Pick: Chiefs +7 - KC battles and should force turnovers
Oakland +3 at Miami: The Raiders have won 3 in a row and once again without McFadden, Moore and Ford, top 3 weapons on offense, and starting linebacker McClain may not play due to an off the field incident, the leader on the defense and plenty of distractions coming into the week. Miami has a stout defense that has not allowed teams to score lately, and Matt Moore is finding success to Marshall. The Raiders tend to shut down #1 receivers with Routt, but Reggie Bush's edge speed is a concern. Miami is ranked 7th against the run, which the Raiders try to set the tone with a physical running game. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS this season and 61.95% of the public taking them as 3 point dogs. Oakland is 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road, but just 7-21-2 ATS last 30 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs. Miami is 5-0 ATS last 5 but just 8-29 ATS last 37 as a home favorite.
The Pick: Oakland +3 - Raiders find ways to make games close, but have tended to come out a winner this year, and would take the money line.
Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh: Cincy has not lost a game by more than 7 points all season, and head to Pittsburgh for a key divisional game, and Big Ben's hurting thumb may be a factor in the colder weather. This should be a defensive battle, and the tea,s played just two weeks ago with a 24-17 Steelers win. The public likes the Steelers in a tight margin, just 50.64%. Cincy is 6-1-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, while Steelers are 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. AFC North.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Bengals are for real, they play D and Dalton is smart and makes plays
NY Jets -2.5 at Washington: At 6-5 the Jets still have an opportunity to make the playoffs despite a disappointing season. Washington has played better with Grossman back, but injuries have really hurt the team. The Jets match-up well in this game. The public is heavy on the Jets at 72.3%. NY is 10-4 ATS against losing record teams, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road. Skins are 8-17-2 ATS last 27 at home, and 4-10-7 ATS last 21 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.
The Pick: Jets -2.5 - Jets will contain the Skins passing game and make them lead on a weak ground game
Atlanta -2.5 at Houston: The Falcons have quietly won 5 of 6 and are on the road to face the Texans who will be starting TJ Yates at QB. Atlanta is 2nd against the run which is Houston's strength, so a tough match-up, though Houston finds ways to win and is ranked Top 5 in most defensive categories. Atlanta is seeing 69.6% of the public action, though Texans are 7-3-1 ATS this season. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road, while Houston is 1-5 ATS last 6 as underdogs.
The Pick: Atlanta -2.5 - Houston has too many issues at QB and will struggle to run on Atlanta
Carolina +1.5 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs are at home after losing 5 straight, 3 on the road, but usually put up a good fight. Carolina can't stop the run, so Blount could control the game for the Bucs. Freeman is banged up for Tampa and is a major concern heading into the game. The public is leaning on the underdog with Panthers seeing 55% of the action. Panthers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 as road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. Bucs are 7-20 ATS last 27 at home.
The Pick: Panthers +1.5 - Carolina should find a way to win if Newton takes care of the ball
Denver +1.5 at Minnesota: The Vikings will once again be without Peterson as the Tebow-show rolls into town, although Minnesota has an athletic D-Line that could contain the option game. Vikings have lost 3 straight and lack much of an offense, and Denver has been strong defensively lately. Denver is seeing 68.85% of the public action as the Tebow hype hits a record high. Denver is 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road, while Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as home favorites.
The Pick: Denver +1.5 - Tebow finds ways to win and a short-handed Vikings team will struggle to score (the Under looks solid here as well)
Indianapolis +21 at New England: The winless Colts have to face the Pats on the road, a former rivalry game turned into a mis-match. For the 10th time in history there is a 20 point spread in a game, favorites just 2-7 ATS in prior 9. The hapless Colts have gone 2-9 ATS this season and 67.4% of public on the Pats here. Colts are 10-3 ATS last 13 as underdog of 10.5 or greater, while Pats are just 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Colts +21 - Statistical Trends Favor a Cover and Game Means More to Colts due to Rivalry
Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland: The Browns at home and have lost 4 of 5, but rank 1st against the pass. The Browns have stayed in close games lately. Baltimore should have no problem shutting down the Browns offense, and have won 4 of the last 5. Ray Rice should have one of his better games of the season. The public is picking the Ravens, 71.7% of the action. Ravens are a weak 4-12 ATS last 16 on road as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 1-7 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5
St Louis +13.5 at SF 49ers: The Rams are 2-9 and Bradford re-injured his ankle and status is uncertain for this week, and on the road have a tough match-up. 49ers had a long week to think about the loss to the Ravens and should be ready to get back on track this week. Rams are 32nd against the run, so Gore due for a big week. The public picking SF with 63.5% of the action, a team 9-1-1 ATS this season. Rams are 3-13 ATS last 16 on road as 10.5 or greater underdog, and SF is 7-0 ATS last 7 as home favorite.
The Pick: 49ers -13.5
Dallas -4.5 at Arizona: Arizona has Kolb back in at QB, though Skleton looked to be the better option, and has won 3 of its last 4, a solid D and awesome special teams. Dallas comes in rising a 4 game win streak, two straight close ones. Arizona is 25th against the pass so Romo due for a big game. Dallas is just 4-6-1 ATS this year and line opened at -6.5, but 70.35% of the public is betting Cowboys. Dallas is only 17-35-2 ATS in 54 games as road favorites, and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 as favorites overall. Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 at home as a 3.5 to 10 point dog.
The Pick: Cardinals +4.5 - Statistical Trends Pick Here
Green Bay -6 at NY Giants: The Giants have lost 3 straight and have looked sloppy at best. Packers bring their undefeated record into town and explosive offense, although giving up a ton of yards through the air, although great at forcing turnovers. The public likes the Packers with 70.6% of the action, and are 8-3 ATS this season. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road. Giants are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but only 1-6-1 ATS in games after a loss.
The Pick: Packers -6.5
Detroit +10 at New Orleans Saints: Detroit is 7-4 and still a 9 point dog with a hot Saints team at home. Lions lost a tough one to the Packers and had a long week, but Suh will be suspended for this game, a hit to the D. Saints have been clicking on offense and putting up big points, but Lions are 6th against the Pass and Saints 25th against the pass against a pass-happy Lions team. New Orleans is seeing 54.4% of the public action. Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, but just 2-7 ATS last 9 December games. Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in December games, and 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Pick: Lions +10 - Detroit matches up well with the passing game and should keep it close in a prime-time game.
San Diego -3 at Jacksonville: San Diego has lost 6 straight, but still favorites in a road game, a team with talent, but no heart, and Rivers with way too many turnovers, also a coach in Norv Turner on the way out. Jags are not a team to roll over and can stop the pass, ranked 4th. Chargers are 25th against the run, so MJD a good game ahead. San Diego with 69.77% of the betting action, a team just 2-9 ATS this season. Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as road favorites and Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as underdogs.
The Pick: Jags +3
Friday, December 2, 2011
Championship Week: College Football Quick Picks
No time to go in depth this week for College, will have the NFL picks up by tomorrow, but here are some picks:
Big East Championship: UCONN +9 at Cincinnati - The Pick - UCONN +9
Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss +14.5 at Houston - The Pick - Southern Miss +14.5
Iowa St. +11 at Kansas St - The Pick - K. St -11
Wyoming -6 at Colorado St - The Pick - Wyoming -6 (This Looks to be a Lock)
Texas +3 at Baylor - The Pick - Baylor -3
Georgia +14 at LSU - The Pick - Georgia +14
Oklahoma +3.5 at Oklahoma St - The Pick - Oklahoma St -3.5
Virginia Tech -7 at Clemson - The Pick - Virginia Tech -7
Michigan St +10 at Wisconsin - The Pick - Michigan St +10
Big East Championship: UCONN +9 at Cincinnati - The Pick - UCONN +9
Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss +14.5 at Houston - The Pick - Southern Miss +14.5
Iowa St. +11 at Kansas St - The Pick - K. St -11
Wyoming -6 at Colorado St - The Pick - Wyoming -6 (This Looks to be a Lock)
Texas +3 at Baylor - The Pick - Baylor -3
Georgia +14 at LSU - The Pick - Georgia +14
Oklahoma +3.5 at Oklahoma St - The Pick - Oklahoma St -3.5
Virginia Tech -7 at Clemson - The Pick - Virginia Tech -7
Michigan St +10 at Wisconsin - The Pick - Michigan St +10
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