December 17th, New Mexico Bowl, Temple -7 vs. Wyoming
A match-up of two 8-4 teams with Temple being from the stronger conference, and a great running team against a Wyoming defense that has had problems stopping the run. Wyoming has faced quality opponents this year with TCU, Nebraska, and Boise St. and held their own. Wyoming is seeing 72.7% of the public action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, while Temple is 10-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
The Pick: Wyoming +7 - I see no real separation in terms of talent, and should be a close game with two teams that play different styles.
December 17th, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Ohio +2.5 vs. Utah St.
Ohio is looking for its first bowl win in 6 tries and coming off a 23-20 loss to Northern Illinois, but did beat Temple a few weeks ago and tends to be in close games. Utah St. won 5 straight, a team most famous for almost pulling the upset against Auburn to start the season. Ohio has a balanced attack while Utah St. prefers to run the ball. 56.25% of the public is with Ohio in this one, a team 9-3 ATS last 12 as underdogs. Utah St. is 0-5 ATS last 5 as favorites.
The Pick: Ohio +2.5 - Ohio is a veteran team with a lot of Seniors that will look to go out as winners.
December 17th, New Orleans Bowl, San Diego St. -5 vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are making their first bowl appearance in 41 years and have lost 2 games to finish the season. Aztecs RB Hillman was the 3rd leading rusher in the Nation this year and San Diego St. played Boise St. well a month ago is a 17 point defeat. This is sort of a home game for LA-Lafayette, but a team that lacks any real quality opponents this year and may be over-whelmed. The public has 77.8% of the action on the Ragin' Cajuns, a team 13-3 ATS last 16 as underdogs. Aztecs are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
The Pick: San Diego St. -5
December 20th, Beef O' Brady's Bowl, Florida Int'l -4 vs Marshall
FIU comes in with a 3 game win streak and Louisville is the common opponent, both teams with close wins. FIU's Hilton is the biggest playmaker in this one at WR, while Marshall has Vinny Curry at D-End, one of the nation's better edge rushers that will look to disrupt the Panthers. FIU is only allowing 19.4 points per game, 16th in the country. Marshall is allowing over 30 points per game and lost to Houston 63-28 and Tulsa 59-17. Marshall is 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games while FIU is 2-5 ATS last 7 games as favorites.
The Pick: FIU -4
December 21st, SD County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, TCU -10.5 vs. LA Tech
The Horned Frogs come in winning 7 straight and Pachall has looked great at QB this season, a team that handed Boise St. a loss. LA Tech has also won 7 straight, including wins against Nevada, Utah St. and Ole Miss, so not a team to be taken lightly. LA Tech should have success running the ball with its 3 RB scheme. TCU is 0-6 ATS last 6 non-conf. games, while the LA Tech Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS last 5 non-conf. games, and 5-1 ATS when 10.5 or more underdogs.
The Pick: LA Tech +10.5
December 22, Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona St. +13.5 at Boise St
Boise St. is angry with its one loss due to a missed FG at the end of the game and is then delivered a lousy bowl game against an ASU team that lost 4 straight and its coach was fired. Boise St. can throw the ball as good as anyone and also does not give up points, and will be looking to prove a point. ASU struggles on D but can put the ball up in the air with Osweiler. ASU is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as 10.5 or greater underdogs, and the Broncos are 8-2 ATS last 10 bowl games, a team always ready to play.
The Pick: Boise St -13.5
December 24th, Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Southern Miss -6 vs Nevada
Southern Miss was one of the most underrated teams in the country and proved that with a 49-28 win against an undefeated Houston team to end the season, a team that can really move the ball. Nevada was 7-5 and is a run-first team, 8th in the nation with 252 rushing yards per game, but a team that lacks quality wins on its schedule. Nevada is 1-5 ATS its last 6 and Southern Miss is 8-2-1 ATS last 11, but 0-4 ATS vs. the WAC.
The Pick: Southern Miss -6
December 26th, AdvoCare Independence Bowl, UNC +4.5 vs Missouri
Missouri won 3 straight to close the year, including impressive wins against Texas and Texas Tech, also beating Texas A&M this year, so the question is if they can beat a team not from Texas. Franklin, Josey and Moe are 3 big time playmakers for the Tigers. UNC has lost 4 of 6, but a close 3 point loss to BCS team V-Tech. Both teams were 6-6 ATS this season, and UNC 19-9 ATS last 28 as underdogs. Missouri is 3-8 ATS last 11 games at Neutral sites.
The Pick: UNC +4.5 - UNC has an under-rated defense to keep this close and contain the Tigers run game
December 27th, Little Ceasar's Bowl, Western Michigan +2.5 vs Purdue
A MAC vs. Big 10 match-up with a Western Michigan team that ranks 8th nationally with 330 yards a game through the air. Western Michigan faced both Illinois and Michigan in the Big 10 this year, losing each, but only 3 point defeat to Illinois. Purdue has been inconsistent all season and lack much offensive firepower. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS and Purdue just 5-6-1 ATS this season. Broncos are 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. Big 10 team, and 5-13-2 ATS last 20 as underdogs. Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as favorites, and 1-5 ATS vs the MAC, a pass-happy conference.
The Pick: Western Michigan +2.5
December 27th, Belk Bow, Louisville +3 vs. NC St.
Louisville has won 5 of 6 including a win vs. West Virginia, while NC St. recently romped a 7th ranked Clemson team, and beat UNC and Maryland. Both teams do everything mediocre, no big advantage here. Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but 1-7 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Cardinals are 12-1 ATS last 13 vs. ACC opponents and 6-0 ATS as underdogs.
The Pick: Louisville +3
December 28th, Military Bowl, Toledo -3 vs Air Force
Toledo off to a rough start won 7 of its last 8, and played Ohio St. tough to start the year, some big wins down the stretch, averaging 42.5 points a game this year. Air Force has won 4 of its last and has the ability to stay in games with 320 rushing yards per game. This game should be high scoring, take the Over, and Toledo is 8-3 ATS last 11 as favorites, while Air Force is 5-2 ATS last 7 as dogs. This is a passing team against a running team, a tough game to call.
The Pick: Toledo -3
December 28th, Holiday Bowl, Cal +3 vs Texas
Cal is a team that finished the year winning 3 of 4 although its 3 point loss to Stanford was the most impressive of the last 4. Cal is fairly balanced and does not stand out for doing anything all that well. Texas has won of the better rushing attacks but dropped 3 of the last 4 suffering multiple injuries. The common opponent is UCLA, Texas winning 49-20 and Cal losing 31-14. Cal is 0-6 ATS last 6 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs, while Texas is 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games as a favorite, and 7-18-1 ATS vs. winning record teams.
The Pick: Cal +3 - Texas was unimpressive every time I saw them play
December 29th, Champs Sports Bowl, Notre Dame +2.5 vs. Florida St
Notre Dame does not have a quality QB and FSU has an aggressive Defense, so this game could be a tough one. FSU really got things going with 6 wins in the last 7 and allows just 15 points per game, 4th best. The Irish are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs, but 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games as underdogs. FSU is 6-0-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games, and 9-1-1 ATS last 11 Neutral site games.
The Pick: FSU -2.5
December 29th, Alamo Bowl, Washington +9 vs. Baylor
Washington really tailed off to close the year losing 4 of its last 6, while Baylor scores 43.5 points a game and beat Oklahoma and Texas down the stretch, and Washington does not play well on defense. RG3 should have a huge game and set his sights for the NFL. Huskies are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games as underdogs, and 11-5-1 ATS last 17 overall. Baylor is 6-2 ATS last 8 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Baylor -9 - Potential Blowout
December 30th, Armed Forces Bowl, Tulsa +3 vs BYU
This is one of the more underrated quality bowl games with Tulsa only losing to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Houston, and Boise St. this season, all Top 10 teams. BYU finished 9-3 and also played a weak schedule, but does have a good defense. Cougars are 6-0 ATS vs. winning teams, while Tulsa is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 11-5 ATS on Turf.
The Pick: Tulsa +3 - Too close to call so take the underdog
December 30th, Pinstripe Bowl, Rutgers -1.5 vs Iowa St
Rutgers was 8-4 this season and has a WR with 109 receptions in Sanu, beating a good Cincy team 20-3 and only allowing 18.8 points per game. Iowa St. is 6-6 and had the fluke win vs OK. St, and has played a lot of quality opponents in the Big 12, holding their own in most of the games, a team that is tested. Rutgers has one of the better takeaway margins in football, a factor that could decide this game with two closely matched opponents. Iowa St is 5-0 ATS last 5 as underdogs, while Rutgers is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Rutgers -1.5
December 30th, Music City Bowl, Wake Forest +7 vs. Miss. St
Two 6-6 teams, and Miss. St is a team with a ton of talent that really under-delivered this season, 2-6 in the tough SEC, zero wins vs. quality opponents. Wake Forest beat FSU earlier this season, and hung around with Clemson, but then dropped a game 41-7 to Vandy, so coming in on a low note. Miss. St is 19th in the Nation allowing 20 points per game. Wake is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, while Miss. St is 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a favorite, while Wake is 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs.
The Pick: Wake Forest +7 - Expect a close defensive game
December 30th, Insight Bowl, Iowa +14 vs. Oklahoma
Iowa is 7-5 this season and beat Michigan a few weeks ago and has hung with most opponents, but a team without an identity on offense despite having talented WR's and RB's. Oklahoma has to be disappointed to be in this bowl, a team thought to be a potential champion, and Landry Jones will have his last chance to showcase his skills off to the pro scouts, and the team has been hit hard by injuries. Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, and 12-5-1 ATS last 18 as underdogs. Sooners are 2-5 ATS last 7 Bowl games.
The Pick: Oklahoma -14 - Too much offense in this one, not a good match-up for Iowa who has fared well recently in Bowl games
December 31st, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Texas A&M -10 vs Northwestern
A&M is a team stacked with NFL talent but lost 4 of its last 5 and coach Mike Sherman was a surprising casualty. Northwestern will have a lot of issues slowing down the Aggies, but should be able to put up points, a game made for the Over. Northwestern has a win vs. Nebraska this season, and stayed close in games vs. ranked teams. Aggies are 0-9 ATS last 9 Neutral Site games and 2-8 ATS as favorites last 10. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but just 7-15 ATS overall last 22.
The Pick: Northwestern +10 - Persa will find ways to keep his team in this one
December 31st, Sun Bowl, Utah +3.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets started the season 6-0 with the triple-option offense, but dropped 4 of its last 6. Utah won 4 of its last 5, losing to Colorado to end the year, and is a defensive minded team. Utes are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games as an underdog and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games as favorites.
The Pick: Utah +3 - Utah has a month to prepare for the G-Tech Offense and that should give them the edge
December 31st, Liberty Bowl, Cincy +2.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Cincy was 9-3 this season but lost key games to West Va. and Rutgers down the stretch without Collaros at QB. Vandy looked impressive in a 3 point defeat to Arkansas and 5 point loss to Florida. Bearcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 non-conf. games but 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games. Vandy is 6-1 ATS last 7 games and 4-1 ATS outside the conf.
The Pick: Vandy -2.5 - Played in the SEC and should find this one much easier
December 31st, Fight Hunger Bowl, Illinois -3 vs. UCLA
Two interim head coaches square off int his one, Illinois a team that started 6-0 and then lost 6 straight, a star WR in Jenkins and the 21st best D in the country for points allowed. UCLA lost 3 of its last 4 although it played Oregon tough and played a stronger schedule. Bruins are 5-12 ATS last 17 as underdogs, and the Illini are 5-15 ATS in non-conf. games.
The Pick: UCLA +3 - Ground game should win this one for Bruins
December 31st, Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Virginia +1.5 vs. Auburn
Virginia is 8-4 and Auburn is 7-5, but Auburn plays in the SEC. Virginia plays great defensively and beat FSU 14-13 recently, but then got shutout 38-0 to V-Tech to close the year. Auburn has been lit up by Alabama, LSU and Georgia, and although Dyer and Blake are reliable offensive weapons, Trotter at QB is shaky. The game being in the Georgia Dome is unfair for the Cavs. Auburn is only 4-8 ATS this year and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 vs the ACC. Virginia is 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, but Auburn is 7-1-1 ATS sa 0.5 to 3 point favorites.
The Pick: Virginia +1.5
January 2nd, Ticket City Bowl, Penn St. +5.5 vs. Houston
A very intriguing match-up with Case Keenum and the nation's top passing offense taking on a Big 10 team with the 5th best pass defense in the country, and Houston coming off a dismantling at the hands of Southern Miss. Penn. St got blown out by Wisconsin to end the year, and lacks any quality wins. Penn St is just 3-8-1 ATS this season and a team with a lot of distractions. Nittany Lions are 2-9-1 ATS vs. winning record teams and 0-5 ATS last 5 outside the conference. Cougars are 2-5 ATS last 7 non-conf. games and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Penn St. +5.5 - Penn St. D-Line will give Keenum problems and Houston is coming off a disappointing loss.
January 2nd, Outback Bowl, Michigan St. +3.5 vs. Georgia
This is going to be one of the more physical games with two stout defensive teams at 10-3. Michigan St. can really rush the QB and has a great running game and Cousins to Cunningham through the air. Georgia rallied off 10 straight wins before losing 42-10 to LSU, and will rely on Murray at QB. Spartans are 3-8 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 as favorites, and 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.
The Pick: Georgia -3.5 - Georgia has a a great O-Line to handle Spartans upfront
January 2nd, Capital One Bowl, Nebraska +2.5 vs South Carolina
A low scoring game in the making with a South Carolina defense with multiple high round NFL prospects, while Nebraska likes to pound the football, 13th in rushing. South Carolina could struggle against the option like they did against Navy. Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as underdogs, while Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 0-5 ATS at Neutral Sites.
The Pick: Nebraska +2.5
January 2nd, Gator Bowl, Ohio St. +2 vs. Florida
Ohio St. has lost 3 straight and looking to next year with former Gator coach Urban Meyer waiting in the wings. Florida has looked equally unimpressive this year, two big name schools, but really a lousy game. Speed could be the deciding factor in this game, and favors the Gators. Gators are 5-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games and 20-6 ATS in non-conf. games. Ohio St. is 11-2 ATS last 13 non-conf. games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. SEC teams.
The Pick: Florida -2 - Speed kills
January 2nd, Rose Bowl, Wisconsin +6 vs Oregon
This is going to be a fun one, a lot of star power with Montee Ball and James at RB. Wisconsin closed the season strong and can really score points, while also 6th in the country on defense. Oregon could be in the title game if not for the loss to USC, and the up-tempo style is a new look for the Badger D. Badgers are 6-1 ATS last 7 Bowl games as a 3.5 to 10 point underdog but 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. winning record teams. Ducks are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big 10 school and 2-5 ATS at neutral sites.
The Pick: Wisconsin +6 - Badgers will control the clock
January 2nd, Fiesta Bowl, Stanford +3.5 vs Oklahoma St.
Make no mistake about it, Oklahoma St. should be in the National Title game and likely would beat LSU, but instead faces Stanford. Stanford has one loss this season, that coming to Oregon, a high powered offense, and now faces the best offense in the country. Cowboys have the best QB-WR tandem in the country, but also susceptible defensively, but cause turnovers, much like the Packers in the NFL. Stanford is 7-0 ATS last 7 non-conf. games, while OK. St is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Pac. 12 and 22-4-2 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: OK. St -3.5
January 3rd, Sugar Bowl, Michigan -2.5 vs. Virginia Tech
The Wolverines struggled at times this season, but Denard Robinson usually finds ways to win games. The Hokies are similar and lose to Clemson to finish the season, disappointing, and a team that lacks consistency, although very talented on offense and sports a fast, tough defense. Michigan is 9-2 ATS last 11 non-conf. games but 1-7 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 8-20 ATS vs. winning record teams. Hokies are 14-6 ATS last 20 as underdogs, but 0-4 ATS out of conference.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +2.5 - Toughest game to pick
January 4th, Orange Bowl, West Virginia +3.5 vs. Clemson
WV won 3 straight to make this game and really not an impressive season for win margins against Big East opponents that were mediocre. Clemson started the season hot and then lost 3 of 4 before beating the Hokies to make this Bowl. Clemson is stacked with talent offensively. Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as underdogs, but just 5-13 ATS vs. ACC and 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Tigers are 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games and 2-6 ATS last 8 at Neutral sites.
The Pick: Clemson -3.5 - Too Much Talent
January 6th, Cotton Bowl, Kansas St. +7.5 vs Arkansas
K. St is use to being underdogs and have been covering spreads all year long, 9-3 ATS. They have quality wins against Texas, A&M, Miami, and Baylor. Klein at QB is a dual threat. Arkansas relies on the vertical attack and put up 44 on a top ranked South Carolina defense, only losing to LSU and Alabama this season. K-St is ranked 109th in pass defense and may be exposed against a SEC team. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS when underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 0-5 ATS last 5 Bowl games. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites, 8-2 ATS vs. Big 12 teams, but -04 ATS last 4 Bowl games.
The Pick: Kansas St +7.5 - Hogs win, but in a close one
January 7th, Compass Bowl, SMU +5 vs. Pitt
This is an unusual match-up with the SMU out of Conf. USA with a quality win vs TCU this season, but lost to Tulsa, Navy, Houston, and Southern Miss, 4 bowl teams. Pitt will be without star RB Graham and is 0-6 against teams that made Bowl games. Mustangs are 11-23 ATS last 34 as 3.5 to 10 point dogs. Panthers are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall.
The Pick: SMU +5
January 8th, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Arkansas St. -1.5 vs. Northern Illinois
The 10-2 Red Wolves from the Sun Belt face the 10-3 Huskies from the MAC. Arkansas St. has won 9 straight games and ranked 15th in scoring defense. Northern Illinois has won 8 straight an beat the likes of Toledo and Western Michigan. Red Wolves are 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorites, but 1-5 ATS last 6 when favorites of 0.5 to 3 points. Huskies are 1-8 ATS last 9 at Neutral Sites and 5-14 ATS vs. winning teams. The MAC is a tougher conference but Arkansas St. plays better defense than MAC teams.
The Pick: Arkansas St. -1.5
January 9th, BCS Championship Game, Alabama +1 at LSU
A rematch of the 9-6 "thriller" and a travesty to allow for this to happen, but LSU is the better defense and the better offense and should win this game.
The Pick: LSU -1
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