Tennessee +3 at Buffalo: The 6-5 Titans head on the road with playoff hopes still alive, while the Bills have lost 4 straight due to turnovers, and now without a running game with Fred Jackson gone for the season. Chris Johnson is getting his swagger back and should have Chiefs cheeproblem putting up yards on the Bills D. The public has 57% of the action on the Bills. Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog, and Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS versus winning record teams.
The Pick: Tennessee +3 - Lock of the Week
Kansas City +7 at Chicago: Two teams that have lost their starting QB's and it looks like Palko gets the start over Orton for KC, who gave the Steelers a lot of trouble last week with a strong defensive line push. Chicago is set to start Hanie again, who can make plays, but also makes a lot of mistakes. KC is vulnerable against the run, ranked 26th, so Forte should have a strong day if used properly. Both teams are 6-5 ATS this season and 56% of public on the Bears. Chiefs are 6-1 ATS last 7 as underdogs, and 11-5 ATS last 16 as road underdogs. Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 as home favorites. There are strong statisical trends that favor the Under is this game as well.
The Pick: Chiefs +7 - KC battles and should force turnovers
Oakland +3 at Miami: The Raiders have won 3 in a row and once again without McFadden, Moore and Ford, top 3 weapons on offense, and starting linebacker McClain may not play due to an off the field incident, the leader on the defense and plenty of distractions coming into the week. Miami has a stout defense that has not allowed teams to score lately, and Matt Moore is finding success to Marshall. The Raiders tend to shut down #1 receivers with Routt, but Reggie Bush's edge speed is a concern. Miami is ranked 7th against the run, which the Raiders try to set the tone with a physical running game. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS this season and 61.95% of the public taking them as 3 point dogs. Oakland is 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road, but just 7-21-2 ATS last 30 as 0.5 to 3 point underdogs. Miami is 5-0 ATS last 5 but just 8-29 ATS last 37 as a home favorite.
The Pick: Oakland +3 - Raiders find ways to make games close, but have tended to come out a winner this year, and would take the money line.
Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh: Cincy has not lost a game by more than 7 points all season, and head to Pittsburgh for a key divisional game, and Big Ben's hurting thumb may be a factor in the colder weather. This should be a defensive battle, and the tea,s played just two weeks ago with a 24-17 Steelers win. The public likes the Steelers in a tight margin, just 50.64%. Cincy is 6-1-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, while Steelers are 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. AFC North.
The Pick: Cincy +7 - Bengals are for real, they play D and Dalton is smart and makes plays
NY Jets -2.5 at Washington: At 6-5 the Jets still have an opportunity to make the playoffs despite a disappointing season. Washington has played better with Grossman back, but injuries have really hurt the team. The Jets match-up well in this game. The public is heavy on the Jets at 72.3%. NY is 10-4 ATS against losing record teams, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road. Skins are 8-17-2 ATS last 27 at home, and 4-10-7 ATS last 21 as 0.5 to 3 point dogs.
The Pick: Jets -2.5 - Jets will contain the Skins passing game and make them lead on a weak ground game
Atlanta -2.5 at Houston: The Falcons have quietly won 5 of 6 and are on the road to face the Texans who will be starting TJ Yates at QB. Atlanta is 2nd against the run which is Houston's strength, so a tough match-up, though Houston finds ways to win and is ranked Top 5 in most defensive categories. Atlanta is seeing 69.6% of the public action, though Texans are 7-3-1 ATS this season. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road, while Houston is 1-5 ATS last 6 as underdogs.
The Pick: Atlanta -2.5 - Houston has too many issues at QB and will struggle to run on Atlanta
Carolina +1.5 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs are at home after losing 5 straight, 3 on the road, but usually put up a good fight. Carolina can't stop the run, so Blount could control the game for the Bucs. Freeman is banged up for Tampa and is a major concern heading into the game. The public is leaning on the underdog with Panthers seeing 55% of the action. Panthers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 as road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. Bucs are 7-20 ATS last 27 at home.
The Pick: Panthers +1.5 - Carolina should find a way to win if Newton takes care of the ball
Denver +1.5 at Minnesota: The Vikings will once again be without Peterson as the Tebow-show rolls into town, although Minnesota has an athletic D-Line that could contain the option game. Vikings have lost 3 straight and lack much of an offense, and Denver has been strong defensively lately. Denver is seeing 68.85% of the public action as the Tebow hype hits a record high. Denver is 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road, while Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as home favorites.
The Pick: Denver +1.5 - Tebow finds ways to win and a short-handed Vikings team will struggle to score (the Under looks solid here as well)
Indianapolis +21 at New England: The winless Colts have to face the Pats on the road, a former rivalry game turned into a mis-match. For the 10th time in history there is a 20 point spread in a game, favorites just 2-7 ATS in prior 9. The hapless Colts have gone 2-9 ATS this season and 67.4% of public on the Pats here. Colts are 10-3 ATS last 13 as underdog of 10.5 or greater, while Pats are just 3-13 ATS last 16 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Colts +21 - Statistical Trends Favor a Cover and Game Means More to Colts due to Rivalry
Baltimore -6.5 at Cleveland: The Browns at home and have lost 4 of 5, but rank 1st against the pass. The Browns have stayed in close games lately. Baltimore should have no problem shutting down the Browns offense, and have won 4 of the last 5. Ray Rice should have one of his better games of the season. The public is picking the Ravens, 71.7% of the action. Ravens are a weak 4-12 ATS last 16 on road as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 1-7 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Baltimore -6.5
St Louis +13.5 at SF 49ers: The Rams are 2-9 and Bradford re-injured his ankle and status is uncertain for this week, and on the road have a tough match-up. 49ers had a long week to think about the loss to the Ravens and should be ready to get back on track this week. Rams are 32nd against the run, so Gore due for a big week. The public picking SF with 63.5% of the action, a team 9-1-1 ATS this season. Rams are 3-13 ATS last 16 on road as 10.5 or greater underdog, and SF is 7-0 ATS last 7 as home favorite.
The Pick: 49ers -13.5
Dallas -4.5 at Arizona: Arizona has Kolb back in at QB, though Skleton looked to be the better option, and has won 3 of its last 4, a solid D and awesome special teams. Dallas comes in rising a 4 game win streak, two straight close ones. Arizona is 25th against the pass so Romo due for a big game. Dallas is just 4-6-1 ATS this year and line opened at -6.5, but 70.35% of the public is betting Cowboys. Dallas is only 17-35-2 ATS in 54 games as road favorites, and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 as favorites overall. Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 at home as a 3.5 to 10 point dog.
The Pick: Cardinals +4.5 - Statistical Trends Pick Here
Green Bay -6 at NY Giants: The Giants have lost 3 straight and have looked sloppy at best. Packers bring their undefeated record into town and explosive offense, although giving up a ton of yards through the air, although great at forcing turnovers. The public likes the Packers with 70.6% of the action, and are 8-3 ATS this season. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road. Giants are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but only 1-6-1 ATS in games after a loss.
The Pick: Packers -6.5
Detroit +10 at New Orleans Saints: Detroit is 7-4 and still a 9 point dog with a hot Saints team at home. Lions lost a tough one to the Packers and had a long week, but Suh will be suspended for this game, a hit to the D. Saints have been clicking on offense and putting up big points, but Lions are 6th against the Pass and Saints 25th against the pass against a pass-happy Lions team. New Orleans is seeing 54.4% of the public action. Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 at home, but just 2-7 ATS last 9 December games. Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in December games, and 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Pick: Lions +10 - Detroit matches up well with the passing game and should keep it close in a prime-time game.
San Diego -3 at Jacksonville: San Diego has lost 6 straight, but still favorites in a road game, a team with talent, but no heart, and Rivers with way too many turnovers, also a coach in Norv Turner on the way out. Jags are not a team to roll over and can stop the pass, ranked 4th. Chargers are 25th against the run, so MJD a good game ahead. San Diego with 69.77% of the betting action, a team just 2-9 ATS this season. Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as road favorites and Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 as underdogs.
The Pick: Jags +3
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