We head into the last 1/4 of the football season sadly, and injuries are taking a toll on many teams, and still a lot of playoff spots up for grabs. I had another great week of picks last week, and early indications for this week are we have a lot of very tough spreads.
Colts +16.5 at Ravens: The Colts managed to cover last week as big underdogs against the Pats, and this week face the Ravens, a team with a much better defense. Baltimore has not exactly been blowing teams out, but this one is a major mis-match and could see a score around 38-10. The public is on the Colts with 50.2%, a potential trap with a short memory seeing last week's cover, and Colts are just 3-9 ATS this season. Colts are 11-3 ATS last 14 as 10.5 or more point dogs, while Ravens are 11-5 ATS last 16 as a 10.5 or more home favorite.
The Pick: Baltimore -16.5
Texans +3 at Bengals: The Bengals are at home in a real important game to stay alive in the Wildcard hunt and have lost 3 of 4, although to the Steelers and Ravens. Houston is managing to win with whoever is at QB, playing great defense and running the football, but a tough road game for the situation and Andre Johnson back out of the lineup. Cincy is 20th against the run, so Houston could dominate the clock. Houston is seeing the public action at 53.5%. Houston is 1-4 ATS last 5 as road underdogs, but 5-2 ATS last 7 as road underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points. Bengals are just 7-18-1 last 26 ATS as home favorites, and 7-20 ATS last 27 as favorites overall.
The Pick: Houston +3
Chiefs +10.5 at Jets: The Jets are at home and coming off two straight wins, and get a 3rd straight easy match-up. The Jets are a team that struggles offensively and the Chiefs can play great defense at times. Chiefs beat the Bears by 7 last week and held the Steelers to 13 the week prior, so this spread looks a bit wide. The Jets are seeing 50.9% of the bets from the public, mixed action. Chiefs are 7-1 ATS last 8 as underdogs, and 12-3 ATS last 15 as underdogs of 10.5 or more points. Although the Chiefs will also struggle to score, it should be an ugly FG game.
The Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Vikings +10 at Lions: The Lions have lost 3 of 4 yet are 10 point favorites in a rivalry game at home without Suh. The Vikings can't stop the pass, which makes for a tough match-up, and also likely without Peterson again at RB. Jared Allen maid some stupid comments about the city of Detroit this week that should have the Lions fired up, but also could see more lack of discipline. Vikings have lost 4 straight buy have played pretty well, Ponder looking good and Harvin an explosive weapon. The underdog Vikings seeing 52.3% of the public action. This line opened at -7 and has been pushed to -10. Vikings are 4-11-2 last 17 ATS as an underdog, while Lions are just 9-19 ATS last 28 as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Vikings +10 - Lions are not the team they were to start the season, and will need to fight to win this one
Saints -4 at Titans: The Saints are rolling with 4 straight wins, but have struggled on the road, and the Titans are firmly in the playoff race, and have won 3 of 4. New Orleans is a big public favorite this week with 73.13% of the action. Saints are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite, while Titans are 5-0 ATS last 5 as home underdogof 3.5 to 10 points and 9-2 ATS last 11 as home underdog.
The Pick: Titans +4 - Bet Trends Favor the Cover and Betting Against the Squares
Eagles +3 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have ripped off 4 wins in the last 5 and Vegas finally seeing the Eagles as underdogs after there lousy performance last week, a team without any heart. Eagles have lost 4 of 5 but get Vick back this week, but the Dolphins D has been stingy and he will be under heat all game. Miami is seeing 59.77% of the public action, but are just 9-29 ATS last 38 as home favorites. Eagles are 9-1 ATS last 10 as road underdogs, and 21-7 last 28 as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points.
The Pick: Eagles +3 - I'm going out on a limb and thinking they finally put together a complete game and fight for Reid's job
Patriots -9 at Redskins: Pats have won 4 straight and head to Washington, a team that has lost 7 of 8, but some bright spots along the way. Skins are actually ranked 9 against the pass, so the match-up is not a terrible one. Pats are heavy public favorites at 73.4%. Pats are 27-12 ATS last 39 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite, while Skins are 2-6 ATS last 8 as underdogs.
The Pick: Pats -9
Falcons -2.5 at Panthers: The Falcons have looked very shaky this season and Matt Ryan is off, Roddy White is dropping balls, and Julio Jones can not stay healthy, but still a team full of talent. Panthers have won 2 straight and have played well all year, but lost the first match-up 31-17. Panthers have trouble stopping the run so Atlanta may rely on Turner this game. Falcons are seeing 56.56% of the public action, and are 12-1 ATS last 13 after a game in which they scored less than 15 points, so a team that responds well. Panthers are 4-11 ATS last 15 as an underdog.
The Pick: Falcons -2.5
Bucs -2 at Jags: Tampa has lost 6 straight and a team really falling apart, without Freeman last week. Jacksonville has lost 3 straight and on a short week, exposed defensively against the Chargers, but Jones Drew continues to run well, and Bucs are 29th against the run. Tampa is seeing 60.6% of the public betting, and are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 road games, but just 3-13-1 ATS last 17 as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points. Jags are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 after a Monday night game and 1-5 ATS last 6 as home dogs.
The Pick: Jags +2 - I'll take the home team in a toss-up, ugly game though
49ers -4 at Cardinals: The 49ers got back on track last week, but without star LB Willis on D this week. SF runs the ball and stops the run, the making of a champion. Arizona has quietly won 4 of its last 5 games, effective on offense and defense / special teams playing well. The 49ers are seeing 77% of the public action, a 10-1-1 ATS team this season. SF is 3-9-1 ATS last 13 as road favorites, and Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Cardinals +4 - Cards are surprising people and match-up well for a close game, also a statistical trend play
Bears +3.5 at Broncos: The Bears have dropped 2 straight since losing Tebow and Forte to injuries, and look terrible against the Chiefs at home last week, so in a game on the road against a Broncos team that has won 5 straight, it seems like an easy pick. Denver has won each of its last 3 games by 3, 3, and 4 points, always close games for Tebow. Denver relies on the run and the Bears are 8th against the run, and Urlacher should be able to contain Tebow. Teams are soon going to figure a way to stop this Broncos rushing attack. The public has 62.5% of the action on the Broncos, and Chicago is 7-19 ATS last 26 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while Denver is 2-14 ATS last 16 games as home favorites of 3.5 to 10, so something has to give.
The Pick: Denver -3.5 - As much as I hate this pick, Chicago is missing all of its weapons and will struggle to score
Raiders +11.5 at Packers: A match-up of two teams 8-4 ATS this season, and the Packers had a scare last week, their vulnerabilities on defense an issue. The Raiders played their poorest game of the season and will be missing McFadden, Moore and Ford again, making this an extremely tough mission for Palmer, thought he Raiders need a win to keep pace with the Broncos. Oakland will attempt to control the tempo of the game with Michael Bush, and the Packers are a turnover forcing team, and Oakland does turn the ball over. Oakland can sell-out against the pass on defense and has some healthy DB's returning, but vulnerable to the deep ball. Packers are seeing 68.4% of the public action, but are just 8-17-2 ATS last 27 as 10.5 point favorite or greater. Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 as underdogs and as a lifelong Raider fan the team does play much better against quality opponents.
The Pick: Packers -11.5 - This would be a different game if the Raiders were healthy, but Rodgers is likely set to carve us up
Bills +7 at Chargers: The Chargers finally showed up to play last week snapping a 6 game skid and Rivers has his weapons back. Buffalo is on a 5 game slide and not taking care of the football. Chargers with 59% of the action, a team 1-4 ATS last 5 as favorites at home, but 24-9 ATS last 33 as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Bills are 10-4 ATS last 14 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Chargers -7 - SD looks to be ready to make their late season push, may be too little, too late however
Giants +3 at Cowboys: Giants have lost 4 straight, although a good performance last week, while Dallas had a 4 game win streak snapped by the Cardinals last week and has looked shaky at times. The public likes the Giants with 70.5% of the action, although just 1-4 ATS last 5 versus NFC East teams. Dallas is 3-9 ATS last 12 as home favorites, and 3-13-1 ATS overall as favorites. This game should be an offensive game, and expect the ball to be in the air a lot.
The Pick: Giants +3 - I trust Eli more than Romo in big games
Rams +9.5 at Seahawks: Seattle has found a bit of a groove and at home again, looking for lynch to run wild again. Rams are struggling on both sides of the ball and lost 24-7 just 3 weeks ago to Seattle. Seattle is 7-4-1 ATS and Rams 2-12 ATS this season and only 55% of the public on Seattle. Rams are 2-9 ATS last 11 as underdogs, and Seattle is 8-2 ATS last 10 at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle -9.5
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