I've been absolutely on fire with NFL picks, averaging 10 wins per week the last 3 weeks, and my betting account has hit record highs. A lot of tricky spreads this week, but good ones to tease favorites down to pick-em.
Time to look at Week 15 games, and getting close to the end of the season, and since I mainly only bet Football, going to be quiet on the blog.
Jacksonville +11.5 at Atlanta: Jags are coming off of an offensive explosion against the Bucs and may have confidence, and can always depend on MJD to bring his A-Game. Even in losses this year the team has played close games. Atlanta does not now how to put teams away and tends to be in close games, even against bad teams, but does rank 5th against the run. Both teams 5-7-1 ATS this season, and public favoring Jags with 52.1% of the action. Jags are 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdog of 10.5 or more, but jsut 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as road underdogs. Falcons are 2-5 ATS last 7 as home favorite of 10.5 or more.
The Pick: Jags +11.5 - Gabbert making progress and can keep this a close game
Dallas -7 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs have lost 7 straight and blown out by Jags and Panthers, not exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL. Dallas will need this game badly and will exploit the Bucs lousy defense and shut down Blount. The public has 65.85% of the action on the Cowboys. Dallas is 7-18-1 ATS last 26 as favorites, and 2-12 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Tampa is 8-3 ATS last 11 as 3.5 to 10 point underdogs, but 5-16 ATS last 21 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Cowboys -7 - Forget the statistical trends favoring a cover, Bucs are getting worse by the week (good game to tease to -1)
Washington +7 at NY Giants: The Skins have only won 1 of their last 9 and injuries/suspensions testing the team's depth, but they did play well to give the Pats a scare last week. Giants are coming off a huge win and need to keep winning to win the division, but the pass defense can be exploited, even by Sexy Rexy. The public is siding with the Giants at 67.13%. Redskins are 5-1 ATS last 6 in the division, while Giants are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 as home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: Redskins +7 - Giants tend to play down to weaker opponents and Washington will have no problem scoring.
Packers -14.5 at KC Chiefs: The Packers take their perfect record to Arrowhead and are rolling, but will be without Greg Jennings. Chiefs tend to play inspired at home and will have a new coach on the sidelines. KC can also defend the pass and pressure the QB, so actually match-up fairly well. The public has 79.75% of the action on the Packers. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS last 6 road games when favored by 10.5 or more. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs, and 12-4 ATS last 16 as 10.5 or more point underdogs.
The Pick: Chiefs +14.5 - Playing the stat trends
Saints -6.5 at Vikings: Saints are not the same on the road, but at least this game is in a dome, so no battle with the elements and looking to lock-up a first round bye. Vikings gave Detroit a game last week and may get Peterson back, but 26th against the pass, so Brees should have a big day. Saints are 9-4 ATS this season and 82.75% of the public betting the Saints. Saints are 7-0 ATS last 7 on turf, but 3-11 ATS against losing record teams, and 2-5 ATS last 7 as road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Vikings are 8-3 ATS last 11 as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 as home dogs.
The Pick: Saints -6.5 - Brees will have a field day and Ponder making dumb decisions
Seahawks +3.5 at Bears: The Bears have lost 3 straight since losing Cutler and Forte, but a tiny chance Forte is back this week. Seattle is on fire winning 4 of 5 and running the ball well and playing strong defense. Seattle is seeing 58.3% of the public action, and are 4-0 ATS last 4 as underdogs, but 8-20-1 ATS as road underdogs. Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 as home favorites, but 4-10 ATS at home as 3.5 to 10 point favorites.
The Pick: Seattle +3.5 - Momentum late in the season is key, and Bears have to be down after last week's loss
Dolphins -1.5 at Bills: Miami has won 4 of its last 6 and although a poor performance last week, a team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and now with a new coach. They beat Buffalo 35-8 a couple weeks ago, and the Bills have lost 6 straight in unimpressive fashion. Dolphins are 6-1 ATS last 7 and 20-8-1 ATS last 29 road games. Bills are 1-5 ATS last 6 games.
The Pick: Dolphins -1.5
Panthers +6.5 at Texans: Houston is at home and has won 7 straight, although it has not been easy without Schaub and Johnson. Houston is 2nd in rushing and Panthers are 24th against the run. Carolina has a lot of offensive yards, but Texans D is top notch and could be a tough test for Cam Newton. Houston is 9-3-1 ATS this season, but Carolina seeing 53% of the public bets. Panthers are 3-8 ATS last as 3.5 to 10 point dogs, and 1-6 ATS last 7 as road dogs. Texans are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on grass and 5-1-1 ATS as home favorites.
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Titans -6.5 at Colts: Titans lost a heart-breaker to the Saints and now head to the winless Colts, likely with rookie Locker at QB, and this kid is real good. Colts can't move the ball and cannot stop the pass or run. Ind lost to Pats by 7 and Ravens by 14, two straight late covers. The public is on the Titans with 71.85% although Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road as a favorite. Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 as home dogs.
The Pick: Titans -6.5
Bengals -6.5 at Rams: Bengals peaked too early and quickly falling out of contention losing 4 of 5, although against Elite teams. Rams are 32nd against the run so Benson should do well and Bengals D is strong and should shut-down Bradford/Jackson. Bengals are seeing 80.5% of the public bets, and are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 on road, but 7-21 ATS last 28 as favorites. Rams are 2-10 ATS last 12 as underdogs.
The Pick: Bengals -6.5
Lions -1.5 at Raiders: The Raiders have been trounced in 2 straight road games and get to return home, still likely without McFadden, but may get Moore back for Palmer. Raiders are 29th against the run and struggle against the pass as well, so Lions in for a big game offensively. Detroit gets Suh back and I am sure he will be angry. This game could get sloppy with penalties. Detroit is seeing 63.5% of the public action, and Lions are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 as a favorite, but 1-8-1 ATS last 10 as road favorites. Raiders are 14-4 ATS last 18 after an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS last 10 as underdogs, but 7-21-2 ATS as 0.5 to 3 point dogs, so losing the equally matched games.
The Pick: Lions -1 - I do not see Raiders being able to stop the Lions pass rush or stopping Stafford
Pats -7 at Broncos: Tebow and the Broncos are hosting Tom Brady and the Pats and have won 6 straight with some wild finishes. Pats have won 5 straight but can't stop anyone, so Denver will actually be able to score points for once, and defensively can keep up with the Pats better than most teams. Both teams are 7-6 ATS this season, and 71% of public betting on the Pats. Pats are 8-3 ATS last 11 on the road and 15-7 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point road favorites. Broncos are 5-0 ATS as dogs.
The Pick: Broncos +7
Jets +3 at Eagles: The Eagles finally put together a good game and are 3 point favorites, a team Vegas has high hopes for and often a let down. Philly has Vick back and a glimmer of hope to make the playoffs. Jets are in a playoff race and should be able to contain the Eagles and force turnovers. Jets have won 3 straight. Jets are seeing 52.5% of the public betting, and Jets are 9-1 ATS last 10 as 0.5 to 3 point road underdogs. Eagles are 2-6 ATS last 8 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites and 1-8 ATS last 9 at home.
The Pick: Jets +3
Browns +6.5 at Cardinals: Arizona has won 3 straight (5 of 6) and finding ways to pull out games. Cleveland may be without McCoy at QB and is 31st against the run, so Beanie Wells should have a big day. Cleveland has lost 6 of 7 and not scoring much. Arizona is seeing 63.3% of the betting action, and are 6-1 ATS last 7, but 1-5 ATS as 3.5 to 10 point favorites. Browns are 8-2 ATS last 10 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.
The Pick: Cardinals -6.5 - Stats point to Browns cover, but Cards are hot
Ravens -2.5 at Chargers: Ravens have to head West for a showdown with the Chargers who are holding out hopes for a playoff berth. Baltimore has won 4 straight and the defense is back to the old D. Chargers with 2 blowout wins, but the Bills and Jags not exactly great teams. 60% of the public is on the Ravens, a team 4-0 ATS last 4 as 0.5 to 3 point favorites. Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as home underdogs.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 - Baltimore has had some weeks where they do not show up, but need to keep pace with Pitt and are finally running the ball 30X a game
Steelers +2.5 at 49ers: Steelers are ranked 1st against the pass and 6th against the run, playing great D, but a trip to the West Coast and question marks on Big Ben, Pouncey, and Harrison due to injury/suspension. 49ers had a lapse last week and look to get back to winning, now have lost 2 of 3. SF is 10-2-1 ATS this season. Steelers are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games, while 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS last 26 at home and 19-7 ATS on MNF.
The Pick: 49ers -2.5 - Tough game to ask Pitt. to win, and SF should steal this one
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