Friday, December 30, 2011

Week 17 NFL Picks

Hate to see the season end, and week 17 is usually a crap-shoot with team's resting players, so not looking to over-analyze the games this week. It was a great season of betting and will even be better next year.

Chicago +1.5 at Minnesota - The Bears season was ruined by injuries, but a better team would have found ways to win, plenty of teams lost starting QB and RB. Vikings are a team I already am planning on taking as underdogs next year. Peterson injury will linger into next year, but if Ponder gets another weapon, say Justin Blackmon, this will be a dangerous offense next year. Kahlil Bell is turning into a nice find for the Bears, and think they win this to finish 8-8.

Tennessee -2.5 at Houston - Titans still have some hope to make the wild car, and I do not think Houston can really make much of a move in the seeding. Texans are looking bad heading into playoffs and likely will be a one and done. Titans would be better with Jake Locker at QB, and somehow its misfit WR's have payed really well most of the year. As much as I'd like Houston to win this one, I do not see much of an incentive for them to play hard.

Buffalo +11.5 at New England - Bills will go down fighting and dismantled the Broncos last week. Buffalo has the pieces to be a playoff team next year, and really was disappointing after a hot start. Pats are already saying Brady has a sore shoulder, the usual games, but will want to lock-up homefield advantage.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. Colts - Two teams that were terrible most of the year, although the Colts came on strong lately, but need a loss to get the 1st draft pick, so we could see them play not to win. MJD should control the game and maybe the Jags let Gabbert open up the playbook to see if they have their future QB or not.

49ers -10.5 vs Rams - The pesky Rams have just two wins this year, a big surprise for a team many saw as divisional winners. The 49ers need to lock-up the first round bye so should be playing the starters and put this one away early.

Packers +3 vs. Lions - The Lions will be a wildcard team, but could decide the fate of the first round match-up and has been a hot team. Packers will be resting players, but will not want to be beat at home, a bad omen for a potential playoff rematch.

Panthers +9 at Saints - Saints have a slim chance to sneak in as the first round bye if the 49ers lose, but unlikely. Panthers are a team on the rise and sure to be a fun team to watch next year. Brees may go to extend the record in the first half, but likely see the team take the petal off the metal.

Jets +3 at Miami - Jets need to show-up for this one or risk missing the playoffs and a lot of changes to a team that has been a let-down. Dolphins have played well, but without top playmaker Reggie Bush for this one and Jet's D should contain the Matt Moore to Marshall combo.

Redskins +9 vs Eagles - Philly will look to cap off the "dream-season" with an 8-8 record, but the Skins are a team that is putting up some big numbers lately and the divisional match-up should call for a close game.

Seattle +3 at Arizona - I was really hoping Seattle would sneak into the playoffs, I like how hard that team plays for their coach, and if they can add a QB next season it will be a team to watch, really like the Defense. Arizona is a team that has had good weeks and bad weeks, and really does not deserve to be 7-8.

Raiders -2.5 vs Chargers - Oakland will get back Jacoby Ford, a big play-maker, and the passing game should be in full force, and the Chargers were torched by the Lions last week. McFadden still out, but Raiders can still make the playoffs with some help, and a dangerous team if they get in. Rivers has struggled against the Raiders, and although Oakland has found zero success at home this year, I say they win big.

Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos - Kyle Orton is out for vengeance and we are starting to see the real Tim Tebow, the guy that can not throw a football. Chiefs will out-physical Denver and play a tough game.

Atlanta -11 vs Bucs - I do not think Atlanta will play the starters all game, but the Bucs are terrible this season, and would lose to back-ups.

Baltimore -1.5 at Bengals - The Ravens are still jockeying for position, and many AFC teams needing a Bengals loss to have a chance at the wildcard. Baltimore has played poor on the road, but will want to enter the playoffs on a positive note and should be able to win this one.

Steelers -6.5 at Browns - Steelers are the better team and should get up early and rest starters.

Dallas +3 at Giants - What a game to end the season, especially after the last time these two teams played. Both coaches and QB's on the hot seat if the team loses, well in theory. Neither team can stop the other's passing game, and the Giants should win this one, but I like for it to be another close game.

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