College Football 6-Pack - Game and Betting Analysis Week 1

Weekly College Football Match-Ups and Bets

***Note: 1 Unit = $100***

Week 1

Season kicking off with a bunch of cup-cake games and hate to bet 30+ point spreads so looking at a few of the better match-ups for the week ahead:

Game: South Carolina -7 at Vanderbilt (Thursday Aug. 30th 2012)

Matchup Analysis: South Carolina comes in looking forward to the return of its star tailback Marcus Lattimore who went down last year with a torn ACL.  Vanderbilt is looking to make its presence known in the SEC under Coach Franklin who is turning the program around.  In the last 3 match-ups South Carolina has won all 3 by margins of 4, 14, and 18.  South Carolina's QB Connor Shaw took over last year and led the Gamecocks to 7 wins in 8 games, but struggling the week into this game with back spasms.  Both teams are stout defensively with South Carolina the allowing the 3rd least yards per game last season, while Vandy ranked 19th.  South Carolina has the superior Offense and Defense and returns a lot of key starters, but this game is Vandy's "Super-Bowl" so they should manage to keep it close and sport an improved squad but one that lost key players in the secondary.

Line History: Consistent - Public Betting South Carolina (66.8%)

Bet and ATS Trends: Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road favorite, while Vandy is 7-1 ATS last 8 home games but 1-5 last 6 games ATS as 3.5 to 10 point underdogs.  The road team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 head to head match-ups between these teams. 

The Pick: Vanderbilt +7 @ 2 Units

Game: Boise St. +7 at Michigan State (Friday Aug. 31st, 2012)

Matchup Analysis: This is sure to be an interesting match-up with both teams losing their respective QB's to the NFL with Kirk Cousins and Kellen Moore.  The Spartans are also without BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin at WR so the focus will be on running the ball with Le'Veon Bell and its top 10 ranked defense.   Boise State may be in over its head this game, not only losing its star QB, but also star RB Doug Martin, 4 defensive lineman, and 3 linebackers, and on the road against a Big 10 school. 

Line History: Consistent (BookMaker Offering Michigan St. at -6.5) - Public Favors Mich. St (55.4%)

Bet and ATS Trends: Boise St. is 1-6 ATS last 7 games overall, but 5-0 ATS last 5 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.  Spartans are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home.

The Pick: Michigan St. -7 @ 3 Units

Game: Tennessee -3.5 at NC. St (Friday Aug. 31st, 2012) in the Georgia Dome

Matchup Analysis: The most interesting match-up in this game is Vols receiver Justin Hunter returning from an ACL injury against the Wolfpack's David Amerson at CB who had 13 interceptions last year.  Tennessee has lost its last 6 games in the Georgia Dome.   NC St's QB Mike Glennon is one of the better conventional QB's in the NCAA and had 3,000 yards with 31 TD's and 12 INT's last year.  Tennessee is led by Tyler Bray at QB and relies on the passing attack, so a tough match-up with NC St's secondary being its strength and without expected NFL 1st round pick at WR Da'Rick Rogers who was suspended.

Line History: Opened -4, Ranging -3 to -4 - Public Betting Opinion Split 50/50

Bet and ATS Trends: The Vols are 7-2-1 ATS last 10 as a favorite, but 0-5 ATS last 5 vs. ACC opponents.  Wolfpack are 19-7-2 ATS last 28 games as an underdog.

The Pick: NC St. +3.5 @ 2 Units

Game: Miami -1 at Boston College

Matchup Analysis: BC comes into the first game facing a ton of issues after losing leading RB Harris who was kicked off the team and top tackler and defensive star Luke Kuechly to the NFL.  Also, BC has already lost its TE and WR to injuries.  Miami comes in with plenty of questions as well but has a very talented Freshman class that could make an impact right away.  The game is basically a toss-up, hence the narrow spread. 

Line History: 0-2 Range - 65.25% of Public Betting Miami

Bet and ATS Trends: Miami is 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road but 1-4 ATS last 5 games on field-turf.  BC is 1-6 ATS last 7 games in September and 3-11 ATS last 14 at home. 

The Pick: Miami -1 @ 1 Unit

Game: Clemson -3 at Auburn

Matchup Analysis: Clemson would be favored by more if Sammy Watkins was not suspended for the first two games due to an offseason arrest, one of the most talented WR's/Returners in the NCAA.  However, Clemson has plenty of talent with Taj Boyd at QB and Andre Ellington at RB.  One concern is that only 2 O-Line starters return, while 6 defensive starters return.  Auburn could win the line of scrimmage battle in this one and returns 9 defensive starters.  However, Auburn's Center was just suspended for the game due to an arrest.  Auburn has a new offensive and defensive coordinator and uncertainty at the QB position. 

Line History: Consistent at 3 Points - 52.54% of Public Betting Clemson

Bet and ATS Trends: Clemson is 1-5 ATS last 6 games overall while Auburn is 2-7-1 last 10 ATS vs. ACC opponents. 

The Pick: Clemson -3 @ 3 Units

Game: Michigan +13 at Alabama

Matchup Analysis: The match-up of the week with 8th ranked Michigan playing at 2nd ranked Alabama in a classic Big 10 - SEC matchup taking place at the Cowboys Stadium.  Michigan's 2012 hopes lie with dual threat QB Denard Robinson and 2nd year coach Brady Hoke looking to build off of last year's 11-2 record with 13 returning starters.  Alabama is always one of the Nation's top D's but lost a few stars to the NFL this season.  Alabama does return 4 starters on the O-Line and should control the tempo of the game. 

Line History: 11.5 to 13.5 Range Moving Towards Alabama - 54% of Public Betting Alabama

Bet and ATS Trends: Wolverines are 9-2-1 ATS last 12 non-conference games.  Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS last 9 non-conference games and 10-4 ATS last 14 overall. 

The Pick: Alabama -13 @ 1 Unit