NFL Teasers and Parlays

5 Team Dog with Sharp $ Teaser (7 Points)

Jets +11.5, Vikings +11, Skins +10, Jags +10, Rams +10

3 Team Favorites 6 Point Teaser

ATL -1.5, HOU -6.5, GB -2

3 Team Parlay

BUFF +4.5, MIA +6, JAX +3

NFL Week 4 Betting Preview/Picks

Game: Patriots -3.5 at Buffalo Bills, O/U 50.5, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Pats have lost two straight and now have to head to Buffalo which has won two straight.  Statistically the Pats tends to respond very well after losing 2 in a row with average winning margins of 20 points.  Offensively the Bills need Fitzpatrick to not turn the ball over to have a chance, and surprisingly Spiller is practicing and may play, and the Bills rushing attack has been great this season.  The keys for the Bills will be controlling the clock and getting a pass rush on Tom Brady.  The Bills were burnt by a much less talented Jets team through the air in Week 1 so that is a major liability into this game but they do have safeties that are ball hawks.  The Bills will be eying this game as the key to their season and to gain some respect, and I think it is a team coming together that will be ready for the challenge.

Line Movement: Opened near -5 on 9/24 and pushed down despite 83% of Public on the Pats, so the Smart $ on Buffalo Bills and confirmed at multiple books. 

Bet Trends:  Pats are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. AFC East teams and 51-24-3 ATS last 78 road games.  Bills are 1-5 ATS last 6 AFC East games and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 following an ATS win.  Pats are 7-1 ATS last 8 vs. the Bills and road team is 10-4 ATS last 14 matchups. 

The Pick: Bills +4.5 (Offered at Bovada) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Pats 30 / Bills 27

Game: 49ers -4 at NY Jets, O/U 41.5, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis: The 49ers were upset in Minnesota last weekend and now have to make a trip to the East Coast to play a similarly structured team.  The Jets are 2-1 but they are far from being good, no established run game and Sanchez still making boneheaded mistakes.   The defense has been unable to stop the run and now without Revis for the season on pass D.  The 49ers were exposed last week and look for the Jets to utilize a similar game plan.  The 49ers need to establish Gore early and often and defensively should be able to contain the Jets.  This sets up to be a smash mouth game and one where a lot of red zone opportunities turn into FG's, so taking the home dog makes a lot of sense. 

Line Movement: Opened 3.5 and Steady at 4 with 79% of Public Betting the 49ers yet Jets seeing more Sharp $ than any team this week.

Bet Trends: 49ers are 14-4-3 ATS last 21 after an ATS loss and 18-6-2 ATS last 26 after a loss.  Jets are 2-8 ATS last 10 after allowing 150 rushing yards in previous game.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings between these two teams.

The Pick:  Jets+4.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  49ers 23 / Jets 20

Game: Seahawks -3 at St. Louis Rams, O/U 39, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis:  The Rams played their poorest game of the season last week but return home where they are 1-0.  Seattle is coming off of a short-week in one of the league's most controversial games in history, so the light rest and distraction factors play a role.  Seattle plays defense as good as any team in the league with a pass rush and secondary of star players, but I am not sold on the offense and Wilson struggled his first game on the road and teams can focus on stopping Lynch.  Expect both teams to struggle equally offensively and comes down to which team makes mistakes, and a rookie QB in Wilson likely is the one to make the mistakes especially with Finnegan lurking in the Rams secondary and Jenkins.  However, Bradford was sacked 6 times last week and now faces a team that had a ton of sacks last week.  Steven Jackson should be healthier this week and take some pressure off of Bradford who still lacks weapons on the outside.

Line Movement: Opened at 1 and Pushed to 3 Although Smart $ Indicates Money on Rams Spread Moving Towards Seahawks with 66% of Public Action.

Bet Trends:  Seahawks are 11-5-1 ATS last 17 overall but 17-36-2 ATS last 55 road games.  Rams are 4-12 ATS last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.  Seahawks are 9-1 ATS last 10 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings. 

The Pick:  Rams +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score:  Rams 16 / Seahawks 13

Game: Panthers +7.5 at Falcons, O/U 48.5, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis:  The Panthers were able to have some extra time to prepare for this game after a dismal effort Thursday night against the Giants, a team under-achieving to start the season but maybe Steve Smith lit a fire under Cam Newton.  They head on the road to face arguably the best team in the NFL, definitely the most efficient offense and a defense that is much improved.  The Falcons traveled to San Diego and whipped the Chargers only allowing Rivers to get 3 points.  The one advantage here is that Carolina can run the football and the Falcons are ranked poor in yards per carry against.  The Panthers secondary was exposed by Ramses Barden last week, so Jones/White should be set for big games.  Cam Newton will really have to be Superman in this one for the Panthers to have any chance, and I do not see it happening in Atlanta. 

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and Pushed Down to 8 and 7.5 at Some Books with Carolina Drawing Sharp $ Action with 72% of Public Betting Falcons

Bet Trends:  Panthers are 4-10 ATS last 14 vs. teams with winning records, but 5-2 ATS last after an ATS loss.  Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 1-5 ATS last 6 after a win of 14 or more points.  Home Team 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and favorite is 4-0.

The Pick: Atlanta -7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Atlanta 34 / Carolina 24

Game: Vikings +4 at Lions, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis:  The Vikings are coming off a great upset of the 49ers and head on the road for the second time this season, losing its first trip at Indy.  Minnesota is an efficient football team that plays strong defense and moves the ball with a well-balanced pass/run attack, and Ponder is really getting into a zone and Harvin and Rudolph are nice weapons.  The Lions have not looked any good this season, tending to get down early, but have shown the ability to fight back.  The defense is a liability and Stafford does not look like an elite QB at all with some throws that make me wonder if he should even be in the league.  Detroit found a running game with Leshoure and Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the league but teams finding ways to shut him down.  The Vikings are a team that fights hard for a full 60 minutes and as a 4 point underdog to a team that often plays uninspired I like their chances.

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Down to 4 with 57% Public Betting Lions, Limited Smart $ Action.

Bet Trends: Vikings are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 overall and 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs. NFC North.  Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-10 ATS last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  Vikings 3-1-2 ATS last 6 meetings and the Favorite is 3-1-2 ATS. 

The Pick: Vikings +4 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score:  Vikings 27 / Lions 23

Game: Chargers -1.5 at KC Chiefs, O/U 44, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Chargers looked terrible against the Falcons last week, granted a great team, but a lot of questions remain with this team, a lack of threats on offense and Rivers tendency to force balls and make mistakes.  The Chiefs are looking to carry last week's thrilling win momentum as they return home to Arrowhead and really have the running game going with Hillis/Charles proving a lethal combo, although San Diego only giving up 67 yards a game rushing.  The defense has been very disappointing so far this season, but starting to get healthy and should see a better effort this week in a rivalry game.  The Chargers WR height is a mismatch against the Chiefs small secondary, but Justin Houston is playing great for the Chiefs and should take away time from Rivers. 

Line Movement: KC Opened +1 and is seeing a ton of Sharp $ Action; 70% of Public Betting the Chargers

Bet Trends: Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. the AFC but 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games following a loss.  Chiefs are 2-6 ATS last 8 vs. the AFC but 4-1 ATS last 5 games vs. winning teams.  Home Team 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and Chargers are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games in KC. 

The Pick: Chiefs +1.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Chiefs 27 / Chargers 24

Game: Titans +12 at Texans, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Texans will try to remain undefeated after winning two on the road and have really had their way with opponents so far this season, a balanced attack offensively and a D led by superstar DE JJ Watt.  The Titans have been disappointing but pulled out a win last week, mostly due to turnovers and do not expect the Texans to be so charitable.  The Titans have no running game and Locker is raw with talent, but not yet showing a great connection with his receivers.   Houston should get control in this one early and barring a late back-door cover they should win easily.

Line Movement: Opened -13 and Steady at -12; Only 63% of Public Bets Texans, Surprising; 1 Smart Book Bets Titans

Bet Trends: Titans are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall.  Texans are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 after scoring 30+ points in prior game and 13-3-2 ATS last 18 vs. the AFC and 15-5-2 ATS last 22 overall.  Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS last 17 meetings between these teams. 

The Pick:  Texans -12 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Texans 34 / Titans 17

Game: Bengals -1.5 at Jaguars, O/U 43.5, 4pm on 9-30

Analysis: After starting the season with a blowout loss to the Ravens the Bengals have won 2 straight, although not in dominating fashion and against the Browns and Redskins.  Dalton and AJ Green are a great tandem and the Bengals have a lot of young talent on offense making plays early in the season.  The Jags pulled out their first win last week and MJD is the heart and sole of this team with Gabbert too inconsistent.  The Bengals run defense is 31st in the league, so Jags should be able to move the ball effectively. 

  

Line Movement: Steady Line with 84% of Public Betting Bengals; JAX is Seeing the Sharp $ Action at Multiple Books

Bet Trends: Bengals are 9-3 ATS last 12 games following a win but 2-7-3 ATS last 12 overall and 0-7-2 ATS last 9 games vs. AFC opponents. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS last 7 after accumulating 150 rushing yards in the prior game.  Favorite is 11-5-1 ATS last 17 meetings and Bengals just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 in Jacksonville. 

The Pick:  Jags +3 @ 2 Units (Offered Only at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Bengals 21 / Jaguars 20

Game: Raiders +7 at Broncos, O/U 48.5, 4pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Broncos at home for a divisional showdown and after losing 2 straight, although to the two best teams in the NFL.  The Broncos run game has some injury concerns and Manning's lack of arm strength a concern, but the Raiders secondary is extremely beat up missing 3 of its 4 starters so Manning should have no problem picking them apart.  The Raiders hope lies in its D-Line that has all the talent in the world but has not shown much of a pass rush to this point in the season.  On the other side of the ball the Raiders are without 2 of their 3 top WR's and could struggle to throw the ball in this one, needing to establish McFadden early and often and likely resort to some trickery.   All of the trend statistics point to the Raiders covering, but this is not a favorable matchup on the road with much of the team injured. 

Line Movement: 65% of Public Betting Broncos, Line Opened -6 and Moved to -7 Over Time, Zero Smart $ Activity

Bet Trends: Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 after scoring 30+ points in prior game and 10-4 ATS last 14 vs. AFC West teams, also 7-3 ATS last 10 road games.  Broncos are 3-7 ATS last 10 games following a loss, 2-7 ATS last 9 overall, and 3-10 ATS last 13 after allowing 150 yards rushing in prior game.  Raiders are 6-0 ATS last 6 games in Denver, Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5, and Road team is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: Denver -6.5 ( No Play at Current 7 Line) @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score:  Denver 34 / Oakland 20

Game: Dolphins +5.5 at Cardinals, O/U 39, 4pm on 9-30

Analysis:  The Dolphins lost last week due to a Kicker, a tough one to swallow and actually playing some good football, but may be without Bush this week.  The Cardinals are 3-0 and playing great defense, somehow ranked 29th in passing and 26th in rushing offense and still undefeated.  Arizona is a good team at home and Kolb starting to develop chemistry with Fitzgerald and the Dolphins secondary is not very good.  Ryan Williams is also coming along in the running game and expect the Cards to win this one and make a tough day for the Dolphins rookie QB.

Line Movement: Opened -7 and Moving Down to -5.5; 77% of Public Betting Cardinals with Very Little Sharp $ Action on Either Side

Bet Trends: Dolphins are 7-0 ATS vs. winning record teams, 6-1 ATS following a loss, and 10-3 ATS last 13 overall.  Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home and 7-3 ATS following a win. 

The Pick:  Cardinals -5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cardinals 27 / Dolphins 13

Game: Redskins +1.5 at Buccaneers, O/U 47.5, 4:25pm on 9-30

Analysis:  The Skins have dropped two straight and are back on the road this week with the defense really struggling to stop anyone with a few key injuries.  Offensively RG3 is coming back to Earth quickly and missing his top threat in Garcon while a few of the RB's are banged up.  The Bucs could easily be 3-0 and the new coach has changed the atmosphere with that team.  Freeman has a new weapon in Jackson and the D held the Cowboys to 16 points last weekend despite bade field position. 

Line Movement: Opened at -3 and Redskin Public $ Pushed Down with 65% Betting Skins

Bet Trends: Redskins are 2-9 ATS last 11 games on grass and 2-6 ATS last 8 following an ATS loss.  Bucs are 4-9 ATS last 13 overall and 7-21 ATS last 28 home games.  Underdog is 3-1-2 ATS last 6 meetings between these teams.

The Pick:  Bucs -1.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 20 / Skins 17

Game: Saints +7.5 at Packers, O/U 53, 4:25pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Packers return home and looking for some revenge after being robbed last weekend.  The Saints are looking to avoid an 0-4 start and thus far are 0-3 versus some of the NFL's lowest ranked teams.  The Saints cannot stop anyone defensively so Rodgers is going to have a big day and the Packers D is opportunistic enough to run away with this one.   

Line Movement: Steady but Ranging from 7 to 9 Across Books; 53% of Public Bets Packers

Bet Trends: Saints are 17-8 ATS last 25 after a loss but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Packers are 6-0 ATS after a loss, 18-7-1 ATS last 26 at home and 23-11 ATS last 34 overall.  The Over is 6-0 last 6 meetings and the favorite is 4-0 ATS, also home team is 4-1 ATS last 5. 

The Pick: Packers -7.5 @ 4 Units

Predicted Score: Packers 34 / Saints 24

Game: Giants +2 at Eagles, O/U 47.5, 8:20pm on 9-30

Analysis: The Giants were dominant last week and had extra time to prepare for this game, but likely missing Nicks again.  The Eagles have looked terrible this season and unable to protect Vick against teams with less fierce pass rushed than the Giants, so that is likely to play a major role in this game.  The Eagles secondary has struggled in coverage as well and Eli Manning is lights out right now.  The Giants are clearly the better team and will look to make a statement in this game with constant pressure on Vick, and win the turnover battle.

Line Movement: Steady but -1 to -2.5 Range at Books; 76% of Public Bets Road Giants; Majority of Sharp $ on Eagles at -1

Bet Trends: Giants are 6-1 ATS last 7 following a win and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall, also 36-15 ATS last 51 on the road.  Eagles are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC East teams, but 3-9 ATS last 12 at home.  Road Team is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings and Underdog is 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings, while Giants are 1-7 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: Giants +2 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Giants 30 / Eagles 24

Game: Bears +3.5 at Cowboys, O/U 41.5, 8:30am on 10-1

Analysis: The Cowboys have been hot and cold this season, the story of Romo's career.  They opened the season with a win at the Giants, and then lost badly to Seattle and looked inept against the Bucs.  The Bears are 2-1 but wins versus the Colts and Rams hardly qualify as quality wins, and were dismantled by the Packers.  Chicago's D matches up well and as long as Cutler does not make mistakes to ruin field position the Bears have an advantage.  Cutler is sure to see a lot of pressure from the NFL's top pass rusher in Ware with struggling left tackler J'Marcus Webb. 

Line Movement: Steady with Public 50/50 Split

Bet Trends: Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 MNF games and 5-2 ATS following a win.  Cowboys are 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. the NFC and 1-6 ATS last 7 on MNF. 

The Pick:  Bears +3.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bears 23 / Dallas 17

NCAA Football Teasers/Parlays

Firing off a few teasers/parlays today for those that missed the good lines early in the week:

Parlay:  Oklahoma St +3, Arizona St -1, and Ohio St. +3

Teasers (7 Points): Baylor +18, Cincy +14, Kentucky +28, SMU +22.5, Wisconsin +18.5

College Football Week 5 Preview and Picks - 14 Games

Game: Virginia Tech -6.5/7 at Cincinnati, O/U 45.5, 3:30pm on 9-29

Analysis: The Bearcats come into this Neutral site game with a 2-0 record, yet to play much competition, but have one of the better and more veteran defenses in the country.  Virginia Tech has looked shaky so far this season, but Logan Thomas is a top QB in the country and can make plays, and last week the Defense posted a shut-out against Bowling Green.  The Hokies lost to a Pitt team that the Bearcats dominated, and although there is not a lot of Bearcat tape to go off of at this point, the team looks to be a contender and electric QB Munchie Legaux should give the Hokies D some trouble and Cincy the 12th best rushing team in the NCAA against the Hokies 83rd ranked run D.

Line Movement: In the 6.5/7 Range with 62% of Public Betting Virginia Tech and No Smart $ on this Game as of Thursday

Bet Trends:  Hokies are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 overall and 1-6-1 ATS in non-conference games.  Bearcats are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall but 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a bye week. 

The Pick:  Bearcats +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: V-Tech 23 / Cincy 20

Game: Baylor +11 at West Virginia, O/U 82, 12pm on 9-29-12

Analysis: This sets up to be a wild game as you can see with the 82 point O/U as two of the nation's Top 12 pass offenses match-up with this being West Virginia's first Big 12 opponent.  Baylor is averaging 362 pass yards per game without RG3 and Kendall Wright, but against SMU, Sam Houston, and UL-Monroe and faces a brutal schedule of WVU, TCU and Texas in its next 3.  West Virginia is coming off a game where they looked very beatable against Maryland, but Geno Smith to Tavon Austin is one of the best combinations going right now in college football.  The question in this game is which defense can come up with key plays at key times.  The Mountaineers also are expecting to get back RB Shawn Alston which makes the offense even more dynamic.  Baylor ranks 6th in the Nation having forced 10 turnovers already and could be the difference in this game.

Line Movement: Opened -12.5 and Pushed Down by a Couple Smart $ Plays; 70% of Public Betting West Virginia

Bet Trends:  Bears are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall but 0-6 ATS last 6 road games.  

Mountaineers are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 at home. 

The Pick:  Baylor +11 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score:  West Virginia 55 / Baylor 48

Game: Tennessee +14 at Georgia, O/U 60, 3:30pm on 9-29

Analysis: Tennessee has the 8th ranked passing offense and a ton of weapons on offense but yet to face a defense anywhere near the caliber of Georgia, and lost to Florida by 17 a couple weeks ago.  The Vols defense has been allowing a lot of big plays, and Georgia's offense leads the country in 20+ yard plays.  Georgia should be able to roll in this game as long as it is not caught looking ahead to the big game with South Carolina next week.  Georgia's D is also likely to get back 2 more suspended starters for this game.

Line Movement: Range of -13 to -14; 72% of Public Betting Georgia

Bet Trends:  Vols are 1-3-1 ATS last 5 road games, 1-7-1 ATS last 9 SEC games, and 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS last 10 SEC games, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 games at home.  Georgia is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 home games against Tennessee. 

The Pick:  Georgia -14 @ 2 Units(Prefer to Get -13 if Available Again)

Predicted Score: Georgia 45 / Tennessee 24

Game: Ohio St. +3 at Michigan St, O/U 42, 3:30pm on 9-29

Analysis: Ohio State is 4-0 but has not been winning games by wide margins against lesser talent, under-performing so far this year.  QB Braxton Miller is leading the team through the air and on the ground and the Buckeyes live or die with him.  Michigan St. is 3-1 with its only loss to a good Notre Dame team.  The Spartans QB is terrible but they have one of the best RB's in the country in Bell and the Defense is stacked with talent that can pressure Miller.  Ohio St ranks 9th in the country against the run in a matchup of strength vs. strength.  Neither team is likely to run away with this one but Ohio St. should be able to have more success through the air than Michigan St and pull out a win on the road. 

Line Movement: Steady with 59% of Public Betting Ohio St.

Bet Trends: Buckeyes are 25-9-1 ATS last 35 road games and 42-18-1 ATS in the Big 10.  Spartans are 4-0 ATS last 4 Big 10 games but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS last 5 games against the Spartans, and road team 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings. 

The Pick:  Ohio St +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ohio St. 17 / Michigan St. 13

Game: Texas Tech -3 at Iowa St., O/U 58.5, 7pm on 9-29

Analysis: Texas Tech takes its 3-0 record on the road with the nations 4th ranked passing offense and 6th ranked scoring defense, although Northwestern St, Texas St and New Mexico were its first 3 opponents.  Iowa St. is also 3-0 and has given opposing QB's all sorts of problems this season, only allowing 10 points per game with wins vs. Tulsa and Iowa and has one of the best LB duos in the country.  Iowa St. may also get a boost with RB Woody returning this week.

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and Sharps Gobbled Up that Number; Public is 50/50 Split

Bet Trends:  Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS last 7 road games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 conference games.  Cyclones are 5-1 ATS last 6 conference games and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.  The home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 when these teams meet, but the favorite is 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings. 

The Pick:  Iowa St. +3 @ 1 Unit - Too Close of a Match-Up to Not Take Home Dog

Predicted Score:  Iowa St 27 / Texas Tech 24

Game: Arizona St. -1 at Cal, O/U 54, 4pm on 9-29

Analysis: On the surface we have a 3-1 ASU team as a 1 point favorite at a 1-3 Cal team.  ASU's 3 wins have all come at home and Taylor Kelly is playing real well at QB.  Cal has been hot and cold, a team that looked good on the road at Ohio State although a loss, and then did a fairly good job of containing USC's offense.  Cal can put up points with the Maynard to Allen combination but ASU has the top ranked pass defense in the Pac 12 although each of its first 4 opponents were forced to use their backup QB against ASU due to injuries.  Cal's offensive line has looked very weak the last two weeks. 

Line Movement: Cal Opened -2 and Strong Action on ASU; 60% of Public Betting ASU

Bet Trends:  Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 games following a win.  Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in last 5 Pac 12 games and 21-10 ATS last 31 home games.

The Pick:  ASU -1 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score:  ASU 37 / Cal 31

Game: Texas -2.5 at Oklahoma St, O/U 67, 7:50pm on 9-29

Analysis: Texas goes on the road ranked #12 and at 3-0 and a team that impressed me against Ole Miss with the 66-31 blowout, a complete team.  OSU lost its only matchup versus a quality opponent in Arizona and still is without Freshman QB Wes Lunt.  Texas has the better D rankings despite facing better quality opponents and even on the road should be able to establish the run and wear on OSU.

Line Movement: Line Actually Opened with OK St a 5.5 Point Favorite but Texas Ranging from 1.5 to 3 Point Favorite Last Few Days; 66% of Public Betting Texas and OK St. Drawing More Sharp Bets with 2.5/3 Spread though early Steam on Texas

Bet Trends:  Longhorns are 5-1 ATS last 6 following a bye week but just 4-10 ATS last 14 Big 12 games.  Cowboys are 11-3 ATS last 14 Big 12 games and 19-7 ATS last 26 overall.  Road Team is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings between these two teams and the Favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings. 

The Pick:  Texas -2.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Texas 34 / Oklahoma St. 24

Game: Wisconsin +11.5 at Nebraska, O/U 51, 8pm on 9-29

Analysis:  Wisconsin is 3-1 but has looked anything but impressive, although we are learning that the Beavers are a quality team.  The offense has struggled and Montee Ball was knocked out last week but expected to play this weekend.  Nebraska has been beating up on lesser opponents and lost by 6 to UCLA and stands at 3-1.  Nebraska is rushing for 300 yards per game, 5th best, but Wisconsin is only allowing 81 yards per game rushing and the defensive strength is upfront.  Joel Stave starts at QB for the Badgers and this will be his first road game and in a tough stadium.  Nebraska allowed Franklin to run for 217 yards in the UCLA game and also allowed 300 yards in the air, so defense is a problem-area.  The match-up favors the Badgers in enough areas that call for a closer game than the spread indicates.

Line Movement: Opened -13 and Pushed Down to -11 with 72% of Public Betting Wisconsin which Tells Me Smart $ Betting Wisconsin and Confirmed as Sharps but Looks Reactive to Montee Ball Upgraded to Probable for the Game

Bet Trends: Badgers are 1-6 ATS last 7 against winning record teams and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road.  Corn Huskers are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home but 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a win.   

The Pick:  Wisconsin +11.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Nebraska 27 / Wisconsin 23

Game: Oregon St. +3 at Arizona, O/U 56, 10pm on 9-29

Analysis:  Oregon St. is 2-0 and continues to impress beating two ranked opponents in Wisconsin and UCLA.  Arizona suffered its first defeat last week in a 49-0 blowout against Oregon, although the team had a ton of opportunities in the first half to even be in the lead.  Arizona has a balanced offense but the defense was clearly overmatched against Oregon's speed.  Oregon St. has a real strong defense that is quick to the ball and offensively starting to click with Mannion at QB looking solid.  Both teams are dealing with injuries on offense but all expected to play.  Arizona could find some success through the air this week against the Beavers 102nd ranked pass defense. 

Line Movement: Steady at -2.5 to -3 at Books; 53% Public Bets Arizona St.

Bet Trends:  Beavers are 16-6-1 ATS last 23 road games and 3-0-1 ATS last 4 overall.  Wildcats are 1-4 ATS last 5 Pac 12 games.  Beavers are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings in Arizona and 11-2 ATS last 13 overall in the last 13 matchups.

The Pick:  Oregon St. +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon St. 27 / Arizona 24

Game: Ball St. -3 at Kent St, O/U 53, 12pm on 9-29

Analysis: Kent St. beat Buffalo last week 23-7 after losing 47-14 to Kentucky.  Ball St. is 3-1 with wins against Indiana and South Florida and also hung with Clemson in at 52-27 defeat.  Kent St. is 2nd in the nation in turnover margin and kick return average, two stats that can be major factors.  Kent St. has the better D in this one but the uncertainty at QB is a concern.  Ball St. relies on its offense so in this game I give the advantage to the D. 

Line Movement: Early Line at 2 and Some Steam on Kent St but Overall Mixed with the Smart $ Bets; 61% of Public Betting Ball St

Bet Trends:  Ball St is 6-1 ATS last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS last 9 games on turf.  Kent St. is 4-0 ATS last 4 at home and 6-0 ATS last 6 on turf.  Ball St is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings between these two teams. 

The Pick:  Kent St +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Kent St 31 / Ball St 27

Game: NC State +2.5 at Miami, O/U 57, 12pm on 9-29

Analysis:  Miami is coming off a big upset win vs. Georgia Tech on the road and returns home for just the 2nd home game of the year.  Morris is still a question at QB for consistency, but they have plenty of RB's to move the ball.  NC St opened the season with a loss to Tennessee and since has won 3 cupcake games.  NC St. has one of the best corners in the league with Amerson, but the O-Line is giving up 3.5 sacks per game.  NC St should have no problem moving the ball and this one could turn into a bit of a shootout.

Line Movement: Opened at -3.5, Range of -2 to -3 Recent; 62% of Public Bets Miami

Bet Trends:  Wolfpack are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 road games but 9-4-1 ATS last 14 

conference games.  Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS last 5 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 games on grass. 

The Pick:  Miami -2.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score:  Miami 38 / NC St. 35

Game: Toledo +1.5 at Western Michigan, O/U 57, 7pm on 9-29

Analysis: Toledo is 3-1 and started the year off at Arizona with a 7 point overtime loss.  Western Michigan is 2-2 with losses to Minnesota and Illinois, two teams that are not very good and will be without their star QB.  Western Michigan has the better ranked defense in this game and the home field advantage. 

Line Movement: Western Michigan opened 3 point favorites, Line Moved to a 1 Point Dog on News QB Carder if Out for the Game; 60% of Public Betting Toledo; Sharp Action on Each Side with Better Book on Western Michigan

Bet Trends:  Toledo is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 8-3 ATS last 11 conference games.  Western Michigan is 7-1 ATS last 8 home games and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings between these two teams and road team 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick:  Toledo +1.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Toledo 27 / Western Michigan 24

Game: FSU -17 at South Florida, O/U 52, 6pm on 9-29

Analysis: FSU is coming off a huge comeback win vs. Clemson so this week could be a let-down game, but clearly one of the more talented teams in the country on both sides of the ball.  South Florida has lost two in a row to Rutgers and Ball St., so the numbers say this should be a blowout. 

Line Movement: Opened -15.5 and Pushed Up to -17; USF Seeing Sharp Bets at +17; 86% of Public Betting FSU (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Seminoles are 7-19 ATS last 26 after scoring 40 points in previous game.  Bulls are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. ACC opponents but 0-7 ATS last 7 games at home.

 

The Pick:  South Florida +17 @ 1 Unit - Total System Play with Smart $

Predicted Score:  FSU 34 / South Florida 20

Game: Clemson -7 at Boston College, O/U 61, 3:30pm on 9-29

Analysis: Clemson is coming off a tough loss vs. FSU where they were dominating a great FSU team for the 1st half and then let it slip away, the type of loss that can stick with a team.  Talent-wise, even without Watkins, Boyd-Ellington-Hopkins make for an exciting combo and Clemson can put up 40 points on anyone.  B.C competed with Miami to start the year but lost to Northwestern last week by 9 and Clemson is a way better team.  B.C's QB actually leads the ACC in passing and the defense has 3 of the top 4 tacklers in the ACC.  Coming off a bye week look for B.C. to play their best game of the year and try and emulate what FSU did in the second half.

Line Movement: Opened -10 and Pushed Down with the Most Smart $ Bets of the Week on B.C. at Multiple Books and then News Broke Late in the Week that Watkins will Miss the Game; 82% of Public Betting Clemson (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Tigers are 9-3 ATS last 12 ACC games but 3-7 AATS last 10 overall.  Eagles are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS last 7 following a bye week, but 4-12 ATS last 16 home games. 

The Pick:  B.C. +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Clemson 38 / B.C. 34

Notes on Other Games:

"Wise-Guys Underdog Teaser"

5 Games, 6.5 Points (+400):  Penn St +7.5 vs. Illinois, Virginia +9.5 vs. LA Tech, Kent St. +7.5 vs. Ball St., Akron +9.5 vs. Miami-Ohio, and Southern Miss. +17 vs. Louisville

UCLA -20 at Colorado - Smart $ on Each Side of this One - UCLA is just 3-10 ATS last 13 on the Road

Missouri +2.5 at Central Florida - Central Florida 11-5 ATS last 16 at Home - 1 Smart $ Bet on UCF

TCU -17 at SMU - Mustangs 2-8 ATS last 10 overall.  Horned Frogs 6-0 ATS after bye weeks and 20-8 ATS versus teams with losing records.  SMU at +17 Drawing A Lot of Sharp Money Attention

South Carolina -20 at Kentucky - Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 after a loss.  KY seeing Smart $ at a bunch of Smart Books. 

North Texas -7 at Florida Atlantic - Smart $ on Fla. Atlantic

Southern Miss +10 vs. Louisville - A ton of Smart $ Bets on Southern Miss w/ 80% Public Money on Louisville.  Cardinals are 13-3 ATS last 16 games.

Thursday Night NFL and College Previews/Picks

Game: Browns +12 at Ravens, O/U 43.5, 8:20pm on 9-27

Analysis: A tough game to analyze with the Ravens coming off a very emotional win and could have a bit of a let-down against the lowly Browns on a short-week in a game with a wide spread.  The Browns simply are not good enough offensively to content with no WR's, a sub-par rookie QB, and a RB in Richardson that was very over-rated out of college.  The Brown's D has some talent and has been able to keep them in games, but field position has been a killer with the team second to last in the league for first downs and so has the suspension of Joe Haden.  The Ravens offense is playing better than the defense for the first time in years and Flacco should have a big game with all of his weapons and Ray Rice as good as they come at RB.  Coach Harbaugh should be able to avoid the emotional let-down and have his team ready to run away with this one.  The Ravens do need to get a pass-rush going as it was non-existent the first half last week and they were picked apart. 

Line Movement: Opened -12 and some "Steam" Pushed to -13; 71% of Public Betting Ravens; Tuesday Smart $ Pushing It Back Down to -12

Bet Trends:  Browns are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 road games, and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games following a loss.  Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 AFC North games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Browns are 2-6 ATS last 8 games against the Ravens.  There are also strong statistical trends that the Under will be a winner.

The Pick: Ravens -12 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 30 / Browns 13 (6 Point Teaser for Ravens -6.5 and Under 49.5 a Way to Play)

Game: Stanford -6.5 at Washington, O/U 47.5, 9pm on 9-27

Analysis: Stanford is coming off a bye week after beating USC in an upset and going 3-0 on the season with the Defense playing really well.  The Huskies are also coming off a bye week and although talented were beaten 41-3 by LSU in the only game versus a competitive opponent.  The Huskies allowed LSU more than 240 rushing yards which is a strength of Stanford's offense, and the O-Line has allowed 8 sacks.  The Huskies are still a bit of a mystery at this point in the season and QB Price is solid while Kasen Williams is one of the top WR's in the country, but Stanford recently shut down Barkley and Woods/Lee.  Stanford's front 7 is one of the best in the country and against a struggling O-Line it could be a long night for the Huskies.

Line Movement: Steady at -6.5 to -7 with 65% of Public Betting Stanford but Wise-Guys Taking Washington at +7

Bet Trends:  Stanford is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 conference games and 12-3-1 ATS last 16 road games.  Stanford is also 5-2 ATS last 7 following a road game.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS last 5 following a bye week and 6-2 ATS last 8 home games.  Huskies are 0-5 ATS last 5 games when facing a team with a winning record.  Stanford is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings with Washington and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS, while the Under is 6-2 in the last 8.

The Pick:  Stanford -6.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Stanford 31 / Washington 20

NFL Week 3 Betting Preview/Picks

Game: Tampa Bay +8 at Dallas, O/U 46, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Bucs are coming off a second half collapse and have to travel to Dallas for this one, the type of loss that can stick with you for awhile.  The Bucs defense is 25th against the pass and 16th against the run so look for Dallas' offense to get back in rhythm after a poor showing last week in Seattle.  The Cowboys secondary is much improved this season and Ware continues to wreak havoc for opposing QB's.  Schiano has the Bucs heading in the right direction, but I feel Tampa will still be feeling the effects of last week's loss.

Line Movement: Jumped from -7 to -9 and Was Not Public Money, Public with 62% on the Underdog Bucs

Bet Trends:  Bucs are 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Cowboys are 2-7 ATS last 9 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS last 6 games versus Tampa Bay.

The Pick:  Dallas -8 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Dallas 34 / Tampa Bay 20

Game:  Jaguars +3 at Colts, O/U 43, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Jags come in looking for their first win and MJD has enjoyed a lot of success against the Colts in the past.  Indy's defense is still fairly soft, but Luck has looked sharp the first two games.  The Colts should have success running the ball against a team that gave up 200 yards on the ground last week and set up the play-action pass.  It comes down to which QB makes the most plays, and surprisingly the rookie Luck looks to have the advantage.

Line Movement: Sharps Grabbed +3.5 on the Open, Steady at +3 Now; 80% of Public Betting Colts (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Jags are 1-10 its last 11 road games.  Colts are 5-2 ATS last 7 games overall but 0-11 ATS last 11 versus teams with losing records.  Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home versus the Jags.

The Pick:  Colts -3 @ 1 Unit (Prefer to Grab at -2.5, Set Alert)

Predicted Score: Colts 20 / Jags 13

Game: Buffalo -3 at Cleveland, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: This line looks to be the most attractive one of the year with the Bills getting far too much respect after beating a terrible Chiefs team and the public quickly forgetting about the embarrassing loss to the Jets.  Cleveland deserved to beat the Eagles and now Richardson is rolling on offense which alleviates a lot of pressure off Weeden.  The Bills are still prone to turnovers and I lack faith in Fitzpatrick who is hot and cold.  The Browns have 8 sacks in 2 games and have forced turnovers, but it's been boom or bust, also giving up a ton of big plays especially with Haden out. 

Line Movement: Steady with 64% of Public Betting the Bills; Cleveland is Drawing Quite a Few "Wise-Guy" Bets

Bet Trends:  Bills are 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Browns are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 games following a loss and overall as well as 10-1 ATS in games following a 250 yard passing performance, but 3-8-2 ATS last 13 home games.

The Pick:  Browns +3 @ 3 Units (If Jumps to 3.5 Grab It Fast)

Predicted Score:  Browns 27 / Bills 23

Game: Jets -2.5 at Miami, O/U 41.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Jets were out-matched against the Steelers and still have a ton of problems on offense with Sanchez at QB, but get a boost on Defense with the return of Revis expected.  Miami clicked last week and Reggie Bush is looking good, while the rookie QB developed chemistry with Hartline on timing routes.  The Jets are allowing 130.5 yards a game on the ground.  Ryan should dial up some confusing looks for the rookie QB who has to take care of the ball, and if so, the Dolphins can easily win this game.

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Pushed Down to 1 at Some Books with Bovada Still Offering 3; 75% of Public Betting the Jest but the Smart $ is Hot for Miami at Multiple Books

Bet Trends:  Jets are 2-8 ATS last 10 games on the road.  Dolphins are 7-1 ATS last 8 games vs. the AFC and 10-2 ATS last 12 overall.  Miami is 3-11 ATS last 14 home games against the Jets.

The Pick:  Miami +3 at 2 Units (Grabbed It at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Miami 20 / Jets 16

Game: Kansas City +9 at New Orleans, O/U 53, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The public still likes the Saints despite two poor showings, and at home they remain a tough team, but struggling with the loss of Payton leading the way.  The Chiefs looked dismal in Buffalo, so tough to imagine much is to change this week, but the Saints D is an easy one to exploit.  The Chiefs have the talent on the D-Line to keep Brees off his game and Dwayne Bowe will need to step-up on offense, also the coaches need to utilize Charles/Hillis better running the ball after the Panthers ran all over the Saints.  This has the feel that it could be a back and forth game.

Line Movement: Steady with 74% of Public on Saints; A Couple Smart $ Bets Took KC at +8

Bet Trends:  Chiefs are 2-4 ATS last 6 games.  Saints are 12-2 ATS last 14 home games. 

The Pick:  Chiefs +10 (5Dimes has +10 Available) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: New Orleans 30 / KC 24

Game: Bengals +3 at Redskins, O/U 49.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: Skins were disappointing last week with a loss to the Rams following a win at the Saints, although now we know the Saints are not that good this year.  Skins also come in banged up without Garcon at WR and now Cariker and Orakpo on the D-Line, huge losses especially this week against a Bengals team that has already allowed 10 sacks.  The Bengals should be able to move the ball and expect a big breakout game for AJ Green.  Although Cincy ranks 32nd against the pass it has experienced solid corners in Hall and Clements that could capitalize on RG3 forcing the ball into coverage.

Line Movement: Opened -4, Steady at -3; 52% of Public Betting Skins; No Smart $ Activity

Bet Trends:  Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS last 11 games and 0-3-2 ATS last 5 on the road.  Skins are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 at home. 

The Pick:  Bengals +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 / Skins 24

Game: Rams +7 at Bears; O/U 43, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: Both teams come in with injuries to starting RB's, but Chicago will not see much of a drop-off with Bush.  The Bears looked terrible against the Packers and still have issues protecting Cutler and have to face Chris Long of the Rams this week.  You never really know what you will get from the Bears from 1 week to the next.  The Rams have weak spots at the Tackles which could make for a long day for Bradford with Peppers rushing the passer.  Cutler has a history of bouncing back with big games after games when his passer rating is below 50. 

Line Movement: Range of -7.5 to -9 at Books (Inflated to Protect Teases); 52% of Public Betting Underdog Rams

Bet Trends:  Rams are 4-11 ATS last 15 vs. the NFC and 5-13-1 ATS last 19 overall, while 1-10 straight up on the road in the last 11 games and 2-9 ATS in those games.  Bears are 2-5-1 ATS last 8 overall. 

The Pick:  Bears -7 @ 2 Units (Could be Swayed if See Any Smart $ Moves)

Predicted Score: Bears 31 / Rams 20

Game: 49ers +7 at Minnesota Vikings, O/U 42.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The 49ers are coming off an emotional win against the Lions while the Vikings lost on the road to the Colts, but fought back late.  The 49ers D is difficult for anyone, and for 2nd year QB Ponder it is sure to be a problem, and Peterson is still not back to form.  The Vikings D has shut down the run this year and will look to make the 49ers 1-dimensional. 

Line Movement: Opened at -7 and Pushed Down to -6.5 at Some Books and with 82% of Public (Squares) on the 49ers this was not Mom & Pop, It was Smart $ on the Vikings

Bet Trends:  49ers are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games and 1-7 ATS last 8 road games against the Vikings.  Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  49ers are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 overall. 

The Pick:  Vikings +7.5 @ 1 Unit (Has the feel of a late back-door cover and Bovada offering that extra 1/2 point is attractive)

Predicted Score:  49ers 23 / Vikings 16

Game: Lions -3.5 at Titans, O/U 47, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Lions are lucky to not be 0-2 and have looked shaky with Stafford making a ton of lousy throws and Calvin Johnson barely involved, and Suh's name is hardly mentioned anymore, so much for being a force.  On the other hand the Titans have looked worse and I have lost betting them as dogs each of the first two weeks.  Locker is hurting and Chris Johnson can't get a thing going, and the Defense is a mess.  The Lions D is actually top 10 in yardage allowed with the Titans 26th.  Neither team has lived up to their potential as both are talented on both sides of the ball. 

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Now Steady at 3.5; 86% of Public Bets Lions 

(Squares) while Tenn. Attracting a few Wise-Guy Bets Especially at +4

Bet Trends:  Lions are 1-8 ATS last 9 games and 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road.  Titans are 0-5 ATS last 5 games and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  Something has to give....

The Pick:  Titans +4 @ 1 Unit (Offered at Bovada and 5Dimes) - Fool me Once, Fool me Twice....Fool me a 3rd time?

Predicted Score: Lions 27 / Titans 24

Game: Falcons +3 at Chargers, O/U 47.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: There are no major statistical edges in this one but Atlanta is traveling to the West Coast for a game after playing on MNF.  The Chargers D ranks in the Top 3 in most categories but will face its toughest test.  Atlanta's D showed up strong against Peyton Manning and should have no problem against the Chargers less talented WR's.  The Falcons need to get the ground game going this week and have more balance on the road, and win the field position battle.  Abraham will be the key to the Falcons D needing to pressure Rivers who can get rattled quickly.

Line Movement: Steady at -3 with 72% of Public Betting Underdog Falcons

Bet Trends:  Falcons are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.  Chargers are 6-1 ATS last 7 games. 

The Pick:  Falcons +3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Falcons 27 / Chargers 20

Game: Eagles -3.5 at Cardinals, O/U 42.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: The matchup of two 2-0 teams, one, the Eagles, that deserves to be 0-2 with all of the mistakes and turnovers, and the other, the Cardinals, a surprise start to the season.  The Eagles as a 3.5 point favorite on the road is a bit of a slap in the face to the Cardinals who just beat the Pats last week and shut down that explosive offense.  Kevin Kolb will also be looking to prove himself versus his former team.  Both defenses have been able to make up for their offenses' shortcomings and the Eagles will be without Maclin this week and the Cardinals D-Line can really create plays, and Vick has looked bad this season.

Line Movement: Range of -3 to -4 with Sharps on Arizona at 4; 51% of Public Bets on Cardinals

Bet Trends:  Eagles are 3-8 ATS last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Cardinals are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC opponents and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games, also 9-3 ATS last 12 overall. 

The Pick:  Cardinals +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cardinals 23 / Eagles 20

Game: Texans -1 @ Broncos, O/U 44.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: Denver is coming off a short-week with the loss on MNF and Manning's lack of arm strength becoming an issue as defenses can jump routes, and if Atlanta's D was able to stop him, the Texans sport the second best D in the league.  Denver's D should have some success also with Houston relying on its run game and likely stacking 8 in the box.  Champ Bailey will lock up Andre Johnson, so the Texans need to get contributions from other WR's and that has been their weak spot. 

Line Movement: Offered Between 1 and 3 at Different Books; 66% of Public Bets the Texans with Denver Seeing Small "Wise-Guy" Action

Bet Trends:  Denver is 3-6-1 ATS last 10 home games and 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Texans are 12-3-2 ATS last 17 vs. the AFC and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 games following a win.

 

The Pick:  Houston -1 @ 1 Unit ( Denver +3 Offered at Bovada and Would Take that Line)

Predicted Score: Houston 20 / Denver 17

Game: Steelers -3.5 at Oakland, O/U 45.5, 4:25pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Raiders are seeing a lot of media rank them in the bottom 3 teams of the league, and it is really unfair, and not just saying that as a Raiders fan.  They lost to start the season due to a long-snapper injury, a fluke, and then had to travel East on a very short week and looked unprepared.  Offensively they have talent across the board and still getting use to the zone blocking scheme and the Steelers D will be without Harrison and Polamalu.  The Steelers offense should also find success in this one via the passing game with both of the Raiders top corners out injured, so Wallace and Brown are likely to have big days if the Raiders D-Line, one of the league's best, can't get to Big Ben.  Woodley is likely to be a problem for the Raiders with their backup right tackle in and even starter Barnes was not a great pass protector.  Oakland needs to come out with a game-plan in this one and more intensity, and I think one reason for all the money on the Raiders is the replacement ref impact, likely scared to make calls against the Raiders and their crazed fans.

Line Movement: Opened at 5 and Pushed Down to 3.5 with the most Smart $ Action of the Week on the 0-2 Raiders; 84% of Public Bets Steelers (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Steelers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road.  Oakland is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games.  Steelers are 2-4 ATS last 6 against Oakland.

The Pick:  Oakland +4.5 (Offered at Bovada) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Steelers 27/ Oakland 24 (Strong Statistical Trends Call for the Over)

Game: Pats +2.5 at Ravens, O/U 49.5, 8:20pm on 9-23

Analysis: A great primetime matchup and the Pats will look to bounce back and avoid going 1-2, and history favors Brady leading the Pats to a win this week, although the loss of Hernandez will be felt.  The Pats D actually ranks better than the Ravens so far this season, and Baltimore has been susceptible to the run, so Ridley could be set for a strong game.  Baltimore's D is not what it once was and Brady should be able to bounce back in this one, and the improved Pats D will contain Ray Rice .

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Pushed Down to 1.5 at Some Books, Still Offered at 3 at Bovada; 54% of Public Betting Ravens and No Smart $ Action Yet

Bet Trends:  Pats are 34-16-1 ATS following a loss and 13-6 ATS last 19 vs. the AFC.  Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 2-4-1 ATS last 7 at home and have lost 8 of its last 9 to New England. 

The Pick:  Pats +3 @ 4 Units (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Pats 31 / Ravens 27

Game: Green Bay -3 at Seattle, O/U 45, 8:30pm on 9-24

Analysis: The Seahawks proved themselves last week with a dominating effort against the Cowboys and continue to be a different team at home, although also showing us that the Cardinals are for real.  Seattle defensively is a team athletic enough to defend Rodgers and all his weapons and with the Packers 1-dimensional Seattle should be able to play a good game on defense.  The issue is on offense where Wilson has looked shaky and will need another strong game from Lynch to have a chance for the upset.  The Packers thrive on turnovers so if Wilson can take care of the ball Seattle has the advantage. 

Line Movement: Opened 3.5 and a Ton of Smart $ Bet Seattle, Still Offered at 3.5 at Bovada

Bet Trends: Packers are 23-10 ATS last 33 overall but 1-5 ATS last 6 following an ATS win.  Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS on MNF and 10-3 ATS last 13 on turf, also 8-3 ATS at home last 11. 

The Pick:  Seattle +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Green Bay 27 / Seattle 24