Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Bears vs. Packers Preview and Betting Analysis


Game: Chicago Bears +4.5 at Green Bay Packers, O/U 51, 8:20pm on 9/13/12

Analysis:   The Packers are coming into this game needing a win because an 0-2 start would be tough to climb back from, and although a loser last week they did play arguably the best team in the NFL, while the Bears come in confident but beat the lowly Colts.  Green Bay needs to establish some sort of run-game to keep defenses honest, but the Bears could be in trouble if Tillman misses this game.  The Bears would be smart to utilize Forte and Bush to grind the Packers and keep Rodgers off the field, and Cutler showed last week he still will make those dumb mistakes, and the O-Line remains a liability.  The Packers may be without Jennings at WR, but have plenty of guys that can fill in that role with Cobb and James Jones.  The Packers defensive scheme is much more of a test for the Bears this week and expecting quite a few sacks and turnovers.  Special teams will factor with Devin Hester, but the Packers have a weapon in Cobb as well.

Line Movement: Packers -4 Rising to -6 Despite Last Week's Respective Performances; 60% Public Betting Packers and 80% Betting the Over

Bet Trends:  Bears are 2-4-1 ATS last 7 overall and 2-7 ATS last 9 versus the Packers.  Green Bay is 9-0 ATS last 9 after an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 12-4 ATS last 16 home games. 

The Pick:  Packers -4.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Packers 38 / Bears 27 (Over 51)

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