Game: Chicago
Bears +4.5 at Green Bay Packers, O/U 51, 8:20pm on 9/13/12
Analysis: The Packers are coming into this game
needing a win because an 0-2 start would be tough to climb back from, and
although a loser last week they did play arguably the best team in the NFL,
while the Bears come in confident but beat the lowly Colts. Green Bay needs to establish some sort of
run-game to keep defenses honest, but the Bears could be in trouble if Tillman
misses this game. The Bears would be
smart to utilize Forte and Bush to grind the Packers and keep Rodgers off the
field, and Cutler showed last week he still will make those dumb mistakes, and
the O-Line remains a liability. The
Packers may be without Jennings at WR, but have plenty of guys that can fill in
that role with Cobb and James Jones. The
Packers defensive scheme is much more of a test for the Bears this week and
expecting quite a few sacks and turnovers.
Special teams will factor with Devin Hester, but the Packers have a
weapon in Cobb as well.
Line Movement: Packers
-4 Rising to -6 Despite Last Week's Respective Performances; 60% Public Betting
Packers and 80% Betting the Over
Bet Trends:
Bears are 2-4-1 ATS last 7 overall and 2-7 ATS last 9 versus the Packers. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS last 9 after an ATS loss
and 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 12-4 ATS last 16 home games.
The Pick:
Packers -4.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Packers 38 / Bears 27 (Over 51)
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