College Football Week 4 Preview and Picks

Game: UCONN -1.5 at Western Michigan, O/U 42.5, 2pm on 9-22-12

Analysis: Western Michigan comes in 1-2 after losing a close one to Minnesota last weekend and had a nice pass/run balance with leading WR Wilson, a freshman,  catching 10 balls.  UCONN is 2-1 and beat Maryland last week after almost beating NC State the prior week.  Western Michigan has a NFL-ready QB in Carder but will be facing the Huskies D that ranks among the nation's best.  Western Michigan has the more explosive offense and UCONN was vulnerable to the pass last season, and the home field advantage will also help the Broncos pull off the upset with the MAC getting more recognition.

Line Movement: Steady Range from -1 to -2; 76% Public Bets UCONN

Bet Trends:  Huskies are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. the MAC, but 2-5 ATS last 7 games on the road.  Broncos are 6-1 ATS last 7 home games, but 3-10-1 last 14 ATS in non-conference games.  The Over is 4-0 for UCONN last 4 road games and 4-0 for Broncos last 4 home games.

The Pick: Western Michigan +1.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Western Michigan 24 / UCONN 20

Game: Miami +14.5 at Georgia Tech, O/U 61, 3pm on 9-22

Analysis: Georgia Tech coming off a 56-20 blowout of Virginia but looked unimpressive against Virginia Tech in week 1, a team that itself has looked terrible at times.  Teams often struggle to defend the triple-option scheme but Miami has the athletes to disrupt the Yellow Jackets and has done so in the last 3 games, all wins.  Miami has wins against Boston College and Bethune-Cookman and were blown out 52-13 by the only real challenge with Kansas State.  Miami only returns 5 defensive starters and has not been able to stop anyone thus far this season. 

Line Movement: Opened -13.5 and Pushed to -14.5; 68% of Public Bets Georgia Tech

Bet Trends: Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games and 6-2 ATS last 8 conference games.  Yellow Jackets are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games following a win and 4-7-1 ATS last 12 overall.

The Pick: Georgia Tech -14.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 41 / Miami 17

Game: Oregon St. +7.5 at UCLA (#19), O/U 52, 3:30pm on 9-22

Analysis: Oregon St. has one of the top ranked defenses in the nation, although has just played one game, an upset against Wisconsin, which is a team that looks to have been over-rated, so tough to rate the Beavers performance.  UCLA is 3-0 including a win vs. Nebraska, but last week turned the ball over 5 times against Houston, but the defense came up big.  I've been very impressed with UCLA's Franklin at RB and Hundley at QB, but did see a lot of talent on the Beavers D and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  UCLA has allowed 8 sacks and may be without its starting guard, so Oregon St. could control the line of scrimmage and keep this one tight.

Line Movement: Opened at 11.5 and Pushed Down to 7.5 with Multiple Smart $ Bets on Oregon St. at Quality Books; 68% of Public Bets on UCLA

Bet Trends:  Beavers are 15-6-1 ATS last 22 road games.  Bruins are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games but just 3-8 ATS last 11 games following a win.  Oregon St. is 1-8 ATS last 9 games against UCLA. 

The Pick: Oregon St. +7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: UCLA 20 / Oregon St. 13

Game: Missouri +10 at South Carolina (#7), O/U 49, 3:30pm on 9-22

Analysis: Both of these teams come into this game with QB's getting healthier, Shaw at South Carolina and Franklin at Missouri.  South Carolina has a top defense and only allowing 55 yards a game on the ground, and come in 3-0 but yet to face much competition, and will be without suspended safety Swaringer.  Missouri beat a good Arizona St. team last week, but was beaten up in its first SEC game against Georgia 41-20.  With both QB's dealing with injuries the focus should be the ground game and calls for a close game with not a lot of big-time playmakers in this one. 

Line Movement: Steady at -10, Opened -9.5 Briefly; Public Bets South Carolina 59%

Bet Trends:  Tigers are 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a win.  Gamecocks are4-0 ATS last 4 games at home. 

The Pick: Missouri +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: South Carolina 24 / Missouri 17

Game: Cal +17 at USC (#12), O/U 58.5, 6pm on 9-22

Analysis: Cal is coming off a game at Ohio State that it deserved to win if not for some terrible officiating, but opened the season with a 31-24 loss to a fairly good Nevada team.  Cal has plenty of offense to compete, but the D was unable to stop Ohio St, and the Big 10 is not a very offensively talented conference.  USC has looked bad this season after such high hopes and this game will be a matter of whether they crack to all the scrutiny or respond with a statement game after losing to Stanford last week. 

Line Movement: As Low as -15, Rising Steadily; 77% Public Bets USC with a Smart $ Bet on Cal

Bet Trends:  Cal is 4-0 ATS last 4 Conf. games but 3-8 ATS last 11 on the road.  Trojans are 18-8 ATS last 26 games following a loss.  Cal is 1-6 ATS last 7 games against USC, although USC is 2-6 ATS last 8 games at home versus Cal. 

The Pick: Cal +14 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: USC 38 / Cal 24

Game: LSU (#2) -20.5 at Auburn, O?U 49, 7pm on 9-22

Analysis: Auburn has looked weak this season with losses to Miss. St and Clemson, and barely squeaking by UL-Monroe.  The issue is the QB position where Frazier looks lost at times.  LSU has yet to face any competition this season and has to go on the road to a hostile environment as a 20.5 point favorite, a tough task, but its Defense should hold Auburn to less than 10 points. 

Line Movement: Opened -17.5 and Moving Up to -20.5; 84% of Public Bets LSU; Multiple Smart $ Bets on Auburn at +20.5

Bet Trends:  LSU is 6-0 ATS last 6 road games and 7-1 ATS last 8 SEC games.  Auburn is 1-4 ATS last 5 SEC games and 1-6 ATS last 7 overall.  LSU is 2-4 ATS last 6 on the road against Auburn. 

The Pick: LSU -20.5 @ 1 Unit - Betting Against the Smart $

Predicted Score: LSU 31 / Auburn 10

Game: Michigan (#17) +5 at Notre Dame (#15), O/U 49, 7:30pm on 9-22

Analysis: The Wolverines head to Notre Dame this week to play the best Notre Dame team they have seen in years and also the first real competition since the Alabama game in which they lost 41-14.  Notre Dame beat a ranked Mich. St team last week 20-3 and playing strong D all season.  Notre Dame has a young secondary and now without its most experienced player that suffered a season-ending injury last week.  Manti Te'O at LB is the key for Notre Dame to contain Denard Robinson who has run/threw all over them in prior meetings.  Michigan's O-Line that struggled at Alabama will face another tough test this week.  The game sets up to be another back and forth affair.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 on 9/17 and as Low as -4.5; 53% of Public Bets Notre Dame

Bet Trends:  Wolverines are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 non-conference games but just 7-19-1 ATS last 27 versus teams with winning records and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 road games.  Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs. teams with winning records and 2-5 ATS last 7 games following a win.  Michigan is 2-4 ATS last 6 playing at Notre Dame.

The Pick: Michigan +5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 20 / Michigan 17

Game: Vanderbilt +15.5 at Georgia (#6), O/U 51, 7:45pm on 9-22

Analysis: Vandy comes in 1-2 with losses to South Carolina and Northwestern, fairly good teams.  The Defense has played well allowing just 13 points per game and RB Stacy remains the offensive focal point.  Georgia is averaging 47 points per game and its most quality win was 41-20 vs. Missouri.  Georgia's QB/RB/WR tandem is as good as any in the country.  Georgia should also get back star LB Jarvis Jones for this one.  Vandy has a new QB with Carta-Samuels who took over last week and this game could get too big for him in Georgia.

Line Movement: Range of -13.5 to -16.5; Smart $ on Each Side but Better Book took Georgia -15; 74% of Public Bets Georgia

Bet Trends:  Commodores are 5-1 ATS last 6 SEC games and 8-3 ATS last 11 overall.  Vandy is just 2-8 ATS last 10 road games though.  Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 home games.  Georgia is 2-4 ATS last 6 versus Vandy. 

The Pick: Georgia -15.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score:  Georgia 31 / Vanderbilt 13

Game: Kansas St. (#13) +14 at Oklahoma (#5), O/U 57.5, 7:50pm on 9-22

Analysis: This may turn out to be the game of the week, although we have a lot of good ones this weekend.  Kansas St. has yet to be tested this year, but blew out a Miami team 52-13.  Klein leads the Wildcats as a dual threat QB but this one likely decided in the trenches and dependant on the Wildcats getting pressure on Landry Jones.  Oklahoma did not look all that impressive in a 24-7 win at UTEP to start the season and yet to see what this team is really made of and had an extra week to prepare for this game.  I expect K. St to force Landry Jones to make enough mistakes to keep this close, but come up short in the end.

Line Movement: Range of -13.5 to -14.5; 56% of Public on Kansas St. as Underdogs

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games and 7-2 ATS last 9 Big 12 games, also 11-4 ATS last 15 overall.  Sooners are 10-4 ATS last 14 home games and 5-2 ATS last 7 games following a bye week.  Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS last 6 home games against Kansas St. 

The Pick: Kansas St. +14 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Oklahoma 34 / Kansas St 27

Game: Clemson (#9) +14.5 at FSU (#4), O/U 56, 8pm on 9-22

Analysis: A matchup of two 3-0 teams and FSU is a team I underrated even though Wake Forest is not elite competition, the 52-0 win was impressive.  I am not sold on Manuel as a passer but FSU wins with defense and Thompson averaging 14 yards per carry.  FSU has allowed 3 points total over 3 games but will face one of the better scoring teams in the nation in terms of offensive firepower.  Clemson does not appear to be as good as last year and a 7 point win at home versus Auburn is not a good sign because Auburn is terrible.  Boyd, Hopkins, and Ellington are all big time playmakers, and Sammy Watkins is back in the fold, possibly the best WR in the country.  Clemson's issue lie with the O-Line and D-Line and FSU should be able to control the game, keep Clemson's Offense on the sidelines and force tunrovers on defense.

Line Movement: Opened -13 and Pushing Higher to -14.5; 52% of Public Betting Clemson as an Underdog to Cover but Smart $ Played FSU -13.5

Bet Trends:  Tigers are 8-3 ATS last 11 ACC games but 2-7 ATS last 9 games overall and 1-7 ATS last 8 games on grass.  Seminoles are 5-2 ATS last 7 ACC games but show a let-down factor at 7-18-1 ATS last 26 after a 20 point or more win.  FSU is 1-6 ATS its last 7 games versus Clemson.

The Pick: FSU -14.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: FSU 38 / Clemson 17

Game: Arizona (#21) +21.5 at Oregon (#3), O/U 78.5, 10:30pm on 9-22

Analysis: A late night shootout with both teams running up-tempo offenses and Arizona finding early season success with new coach Rich Rodriguez.  Arizona beat a talented Oklahoma St. team 59-38, although the game was at home, while Oregon has struggled to put together a full game and has played its usual cupcake schedule to start the season.  Oregon is also suffering a big loss on Defense without its FS Josh Boyett who led the defense.  I expect Arizona to stick with the Ducks early, but in the end the home field advantage and depth of Oregon will be too much.

Line Movement: Opened -24 and Pushed Down to -21; 53% of Public Betting Arizona to Cover

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games and 1-6 ATS last 7 after an ATS win.  Ducks are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall and 1-6-2 ATS last 9 home games.  Oregon is 2-5 ATS last 7 games against Arizona.

The Pick: Arizona +21.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon 55 / Arizona 35

Game: Utah +7 at Arizona St, O/U 50, 10pm on 9-22

Analysis: ASU has played well this season with a 45-14 win vs. Illinois and losing last week 24-20 to Missouri in a game they easily could have won.  ASU gets back a top defensive back from suspension and has a deep backfield.  Utah is coming off a nice upset of BYU last week, but has to go on the road this week.  Utah presents a formidable defense and if its offense can keep up it can win this game outright.

Line Movement: Steady with 64% of Public Bets on Arizona St., No Smart $ Interest

Bet Trends:  Utes are 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and 2-10 ATS last 12 following a win.  Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS last 8 overall and 0-4 ATS last 4 conference games. 

The Pick: Utah +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score:  Utah 24/ Arizona St. 20

Game: Wyoming +3 at Idaho, O/U 49.5, 5pm on 9-22

Analysis: Wyoming is off to a tough 0-3 start but played Texas well and lost its last 2 by 5 combined points.  Idaho is also 0-3 and coming off a 63-14 thrashing at the hands of LSU last weekend.  Both teams favor the passing game, so it should come down to QB play.  Defensively Wyoming has 3 of the top 40 leading tacklers in the nation.  A big factor will be if Wyoming's QB Smith returns from a concussion, and early consensus is he will play.

Line Movement: Steady with 56% of Public Betting Wyoming

Bet Trends: Wyoming is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games but 1-5 ATS last 6 non-conference games.  Vandals are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. the MWC but 3-8 ATS last 11 home games. 

The Pick: Wyoming +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Wyoming 31 / Idaho 27

Quick Thoughts on Other Games of Note:

Temple +7 at Penn St. - Smart $ on Temple Pushing Line Down from -9, Favor Temple to Cover

Bowling Green +17.5 at Virginia Tech - V. Tech as looked bad so a nice underdog to tease as a team that only lost by 13 to Florida

Minnesota +1 vs. Syracuse - Smart $ All Over Minnesota

Maryland +26 vs. West Virginia - Best NCAAF Book on Maryland at +26

Marshall -3 at Rice - This game is seeing more big $ interest than any other and favoring Rice