Game: Virginia Tech -6.5/7 at Cincinnati, O/U
45.5, 3:30pm on 9-29
Analysis: The Bearcats come into this
Neutral site game with a 2-0 record, yet to play much competition, but have one
of the better and more veteran defenses in the country. Virginia Tech has looked shaky so far this
season, but Logan Thomas is a top QB in the country and can make plays, and
last week the Defense posted a shut-out against Bowling Green. The Hokies lost to a Pitt team that the
Bearcats dominated, and although there is not a lot of Bearcat tape to go off
of at this point, the team looks to be a contender and electric QB Munchie
Legaux should give the Hokies D some trouble and Cincy the 12th best rushing
team in the NCAA against the Hokies 83rd ranked run D.
Line Movement: In the 6.5/7 Range with 62% of
Public Betting Virginia Tech and No Smart $ on this Game as of Thursday
Bet Trends: Hokies are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 overall and 1-6-1 ATS in
non-conference games. Bearcats are 4-0
ATS last 4 overall but 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a bye week.
The Pick: Bearcats +7 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: V-Tech 23 / Cincy 20
Game: Baylor +11 at West Virginia, O/U 82,
12pm on 9-29-12
Analysis: This sets up to be a wild game as
you can see with the 82 point O/U as two of the nation's Top 12 pass offenses
match-up with this being West Virginia's first Big 12 opponent. Baylor is averaging 362 pass yards per game
without RG3 and Kendall Wright, but against SMU, Sam Houston, and UL-Monroe and
faces a brutal schedule of WVU, TCU and Texas in its next 3. West Virginia is coming off a game where they
looked very beatable against Maryland, but Geno Smith to Tavon Austin is one of
the best combinations going right now in college football. The question in this game is which defense
can come up with key plays at key times.
The Mountaineers also are expecting to get back RB Shawn Alston which
makes the offense even more dynamic. Baylor
ranks 6th in the Nation having forced 10 turnovers already and could be the
difference in this game.
Line Movement: Opened -12.5 and Pushed Down by a
Couple Smart $ Plays; 70% of Public Betting West Virginia
Bet Trends: Bears are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall but 0-6 ATS last 6
road games.
Mountaineers are 3-7-1 ATS
last 11 at home.
The Pick: Baylor +11 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: West Virginia 55 / Baylor 48
Game: Tennessee +14 at Georgia, O/U 60,
3:30pm on 9-29
Analysis: Tennessee has the 8th ranked
passing offense and a ton of weapons on offense but yet to face a defense
anywhere near the caliber of Georgia, and lost to Florida by 17 a couple weeks
ago. The Vols defense has been allowing
a lot of big plays, and Georgia's offense leads the country in 20+ yard
plays. Georgia should be able to roll in
this game as long as it is not caught looking ahead to the big game with South
Carolina next week. Georgia's D is also
likely to get back 2 more suspended starters for this game.
Line Movement: Range of -13 to -14; 72% of Public
Betting Georgia
Bet Trends: Vols are 1-3-1 ATS last 5 road games, 1-7-1 ATS last 9
SEC games, and 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS last 10 SEC games, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 games at
home. Georgia is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 home
games against Tennessee.
The Pick: Georgia -14 @ 2 Units(Prefer to Get -13 if Available
Again)
Predicted Score: Georgia 45 / Tennessee
24
Game: Ohio St. +3 at Michigan St, O/U 42,
3:30pm on 9-29
Analysis: Ohio State is 4-0 but has not been
winning games by wide margins against lesser talent, under-performing so far
this year. QB Braxton Miller is leading
the team through the air and on the ground and the Buckeyes live or die with
him. Michigan St. is 3-1 with its only
loss to a good Notre Dame team. The
Spartans QB is terrible but they have one of the best RB's in the country in
Bell and the Defense is stacked with talent that can pressure Miller. Ohio St ranks 9th in the country against the
run in a matchup of strength vs. strength.
Neither team is likely to run away with this one but Ohio St. should be
able to have more success through the air than Michigan St and pull out a win
on the road.
Line Movement: Steady with 59% of Public Betting
Ohio St.
Bet Trends: Buckeyes are 25-9-1 ATS last 35 road games and 42-18-1
ATS in the Big 10. Spartans are 4-0 ATS
last 4 Big 10 games but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS last 5 games against the
Spartans, and road team 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.
The Pick: Ohio St +3 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Ohio St. 17 / Michigan
St. 13
Game: Texas Tech -3 at Iowa St., O/U 58.5,
7pm on 9-29
Analysis: Texas Tech takes its 3-0 record on
the road with the nations 4th ranked passing offense and 6th ranked scoring
defense, although Northwestern St, Texas St and New Mexico were its first 3
opponents. Iowa St. is also 3-0 and has
given opposing QB's all sorts of problems this season, only allowing 10 points
per game with wins vs. Tulsa and Iowa and has one of the best LB duos in the
country. Iowa St. may also get a boost
with RB Woody returning this week.
Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and Sharps Gobbled Up
that Number; Public is 50/50 Split
Bet Trends: Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS
last 7 road games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 conference games. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS last 6 conference games
and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall. The home
team is 5-2 ATS last 7 when these teams meet, but the favorite is 6-2 ATS the
last 8 meetings.
The Pick: Iowa St. +3 @ 1 Unit - Too Close of a Match-Up to Not
Take Home Dog
Predicted Score: Iowa St 27 / Texas Tech 24
Game: Arizona St. -1 at Cal, O/U 54, 4pm on
9-29
Analysis: On the surface we have a 3-1 ASU
team as a 1 point favorite at a 1-3 Cal team.
ASU's 3 wins have all come at home and Taylor Kelly is playing real well
at QB. Cal has been hot and cold, a team
that looked good on the road at Ohio State although a loss, and then did a
fairly good job of containing USC's offense.
Cal can put up points with the Maynard to Allen combination but ASU has
the top ranked pass defense in the Pac 12 although each of its first 4
opponents were forced to use their backup QB against ASU due to injuries. Cal's offensive line has looked very weak the
last two weeks.
Line Movement: Cal Opened -2 and Strong Action on
ASU; 60% of Public Betting ASU
Bet Trends: Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 2-5-1
ATS last 8 games following a win. Golden
Bears are 4-1 ATS in last 5 Pac 12 games and 21-10 ATS last 31 home games.
The Pick: ASU -1 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: ASU 37 / Cal 31
Game: Texas -2.5 at Oklahoma St, O/U 67,
7:50pm on 9-29
Analysis: Texas goes on the road ranked #12
and at 3-0 and a team that impressed me against Ole Miss with the 66-31
blowout, a complete team. OSU lost its
only matchup versus a quality opponent in Arizona and still is without Freshman
QB Wes Lunt. Texas has the better D
rankings despite facing better quality opponents and even on the road should be
able to establish the run and wear on OSU.
Line Movement: Line Actually Opened with OK St a
5.5 Point Favorite but Texas Ranging from 1.5 to 3 Point Favorite Last Few Days;
66% of Public Betting Texas and OK St. Drawing More Sharp Bets with 2.5/3
Spread though early Steam on Texas
Bet Trends: Longhorns are 5-1 ATS last 6 following a bye week but
just 4-10 ATS last 14 Big 12 games.
Cowboys are 11-3 ATS last 14 Big 12 games and 19-7 ATS last 26 overall. Road Team is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings between
these two teams and the Favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.
The Pick: Texas -2.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Texas 34 / Oklahoma
St. 24
Game: Wisconsin +11.5 at Nebraska, O/U 51,
8pm on 9-29
Analysis:
Wisconsin is 3-1 but has looked anything but impressive, although we are
learning that the Beavers are a quality team.
The offense has struggled and Montee Ball was knocked out last week but
expected to play this weekend. Nebraska
has been beating up on lesser opponents and lost by 6 to UCLA and stands at
3-1. Nebraska is rushing for 300 yards
per game, 5th best, but Wisconsin is only allowing 81 yards per game rushing
and the defensive strength is upfront. Joel
Stave starts at QB for the Badgers and this will be his first road game and in
a tough stadium. Nebraska allowed
Franklin to run for 217 yards in the UCLA game and also allowed 300 yards in
the air, so defense is a problem-area.
The match-up favors the Badgers in enough areas that call for a closer
game than the spread indicates.
Line Movement: Opened -13 and Pushed Down to -11
with 72% of Public Betting Wisconsin which Tells Me Smart $ Betting Wisconsin
and Confirmed as Sharps but Looks Reactive to Montee Ball Upgraded to Probable
for the Game
Bet Trends: Badgers are 1-6 ATS last 7 against winning record teams
and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road. Corn
Huskers are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home but 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a
win.
The Pick: Wisconsin +11.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Nebraska 27 / Wisconsin 23
Game: Oregon St. +3 at Arizona, O/U 56, 10pm
on 9-29
Analysis:
Oregon St. is 2-0 and continues to impress beating two ranked opponents
in Wisconsin and UCLA. Arizona suffered
its first defeat last week in a 49-0 blowout against Oregon, although the team
had a ton of opportunities in the first half to even be in the lead. Arizona has a balanced offense but the
defense was clearly overmatched against Oregon's speed. Oregon St. has a real strong defense that is
quick to the ball and offensively starting to click with Mannion at QB looking
solid. Both teams are dealing with
injuries on offense but all expected to play.
Arizona could find some success through the air this week against the
Beavers 102nd ranked pass defense.
Line Movement: Steady at -2.5 to -3 at Books; 53%
Public Bets Arizona St.
Bet Trends: Beavers are 16-6-1 ATS last 23 road games and 3-0-1
ATS last 4 overall. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS
last 5 Pac 12 games. Beavers are 5-0 ATS
last 5 meetings in Arizona and 11-2 ATS last 13 overall in the last 13
matchups.
The Pick: Oregon St. +3 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Oregon St. 27 /
Arizona 24
Game: Ball St. -3 at Kent St, O/U 53, 12pm on
9-29
Analysis: Kent St. beat Buffalo last week
23-7 after losing 47-14 to Kentucky.
Ball St. is 3-1 with wins against Indiana and South Florida and also
hung with Clemson in at 52-27 defeat.
Kent St. is 2nd in the nation in turnover margin and kick return
average, two stats that can be major factors.
Kent St. has the better D in this one but the uncertainty at QB is a
concern. Ball St. relies on its offense
so in this game I give the advantage to the D.
Line Movement: Early Line at 2 and Some Steam on
Kent St but Overall Mixed with the Smart $ Bets; 61% of Public Betting Ball St
Bet Trends: Ball St is 6-1 ATS last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS
last 9 games on turf. Kent St. is 4-0
ATS last 4 at home and 6-0 ATS last 6 on turf.
Ball St is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings between these two teams.
The Pick: Kent St +3 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Kent St 31 / Ball St 27
Game: NC State +2.5 at Miami, O/U 57, 12pm on
9-29
Analysis:
Miami is coming off a big upset win vs. Georgia Tech on the road and
returns home for just the 2nd home game of the year. Morris is still a question at QB for
consistency, but they have plenty of RB's to move the ball. NC St opened the season with a loss to
Tennessee and since has won 3 cupcake games.
NC St. has one of the best corners in the league with Amerson, but the
O-Line is giving up 3.5 sacks per game.
NC St should have no problem moving the ball and this one could turn
into a bit of a shootout.
Line Movement: Opened at -3.5, Range of -2 to -3
Recent; 62% of Public Bets Miami
Bet Trends: Wolfpack are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 road games but 9-4-1 ATS
last 14
conference games. Hurricanes are
4-1 ATS last 5 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 games on grass.
The Pick: Miami -2.5 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Miami 38 / NC St. 35
Game: Toledo +1.5 at Western Michigan, O/U
57, 7pm on 9-29
Analysis: Toledo is 3-1 and started the year
off at Arizona with a 7 point overtime loss.
Western Michigan is 2-2 with losses to Minnesota and Illinois, two teams
that are not very good and will be without their star QB. Western Michigan has the better ranked defense
in this game and the home field advantage.
Line Movement: Western Michigan opened 3 point
favorites, Line Moved to a 1 Point Dog on News QB Carder if Out for the Game;
60% of Public Betting Toledo; Sharp Action on Each Side with Better Book on
Western Michigan
Bet Trends: Toledo is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 8-3 ATS last
11 conference games. Western Michigan is
7-1 ATS last 8 home games and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings
between these two teams and road team 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings.
The Pick: Toledo +1.5 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Toledo 27 / Western
Michigan 24
Game: FSU -17 at South Florida, O/U 52, 6pm
on 9-29
Analysis: FSU is coming off a huge comeback
win vs. Clemson so this week could be a let-down game, but clearly one of the
more talented teams in the country on both sides of the ball. South Florida has lost two in a row to
Rutgers and Ball St., so the numbers say this should be a blowout.
Line Movement: Opened -15.5 and Pushed Up to -17;
USF Seeing Sharp Bets at +17; 86% of Public Betting FSU (Squares)
Bet Trends: Seminoles are 7-19 ATS last 26 after scoring 40 points
in previous game. Bulls are 6-2 ATS last
8 vs. ACC opponents but 0-7 ATS last 7 games at home.
The Pick: South Florida +17 @ 1 Unit - Total System Play with
Smart $
Predicted Score: FSU 34 / South Florida 20
Game: Clemson -7 at Boston College, O/U 61,
3:30pm on 9-29
Analysis: Clemson is coming off a tough loss
vs. FSU where they were dominating a great FSU team for the 1st half and then
let it slip away, the type of loss that can stick with a team. Talent-wise, even without Watkins,
Boyd-Ellington-Hopkins make for an exciting combo and Clemson can put up 40
points on anyone. B.C competed with
Miami to start the year but lost to Northwestern last week by 9 and Clemson is
a way better team. B.C's QB actually
leads the ACC in passing and the defense has 3 of the top 4 tacklers in the
ACC. Coming off a bye week look for B.C.
to play their best game of the year and try and emulate what FSU did in the
second half.
Line Movement: Opened -10 and Pushed Down with
the Most Smart $ Bets of the Week on B.C. at Multiple Books and then News Broke
Late in the Week that Watkins will Miss the Game; 82% of Public Betting Clemson
(Squares)
Bet Trends: Tigers are 9-3 ATS last 12 ACC games but 3-7 AATS last
10 overall. Eagles are 5-0 ATS last 5
games following a loss and 5-2 ATS last 7 following a bye week, but 4-12 ATS
last 16 home games.
The Pick: B.C. +7 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Clemson 38 / B.C. 34
Notes on Other Games:
"Wise-Guys Underdog Teaser"
5 Games, 6.5 Points (+400):
Penn St +7.5 vs. Illinois, Virginia +9.5 vs. LA Tech, Kent St. +7.5 vs.
Ball St., Akron +9.5 vs. Miami-Ohio, and Southern Miss. +17 vs. Louisville
UCLA -20 at Colorado - Smart $ on Each Side of this One -
UCLA is just 3-10 ATS last 13 on the Road
Missouri +2.5 at Central Florida - Central Florida 11-5 ATS
last 16 at Home - 1 Smart $ Bet on UCF
TCU -17 at SMU - Mustangs 2-8 ATS last 10 overall. Horned Frogs 6-0 ATS after bye weeks and 20-8
ATS versus teams with losing records.
SMU at +17 Drawing A Lot of Sharp Money Attention
South Carolina -20 at Kentucky - Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6
after a loss. KY seeing Smart $ at a
bunch of Smart Books.
North Texas -7 at Florida Atlantic - Smart $ on Fla.
Atlantic
Southern Miss +10 vs. Louisville - A ton of Smart $ Bets on
Southern Miss w/ 80% Public Money on Louisville. Cardinals are 13-3 ATS last 16 games.
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