Wednesday, September 19, 2012

NFL Thursday Night Game Preview, Bet Trends


Game: NY Giants -1 at Carolina Panthers, 9-20-12 at 8:20pm, O/U 51

Analysis:  Both teams coming off wins with the Giants needing a huge comeback to beat the Bucs and the Panthers taking care of business against the Saints and got its running game going.  Carolina's D will not as poor as Tampa's on the back-end and Panthers Defensive coordinator McDermott if formerly of the Eagles, and knows Manning well.  The Giants will rely heavily on passing again with Bradshaw likely out, and a one-dimensional team is easy to prep for in a short week, while preparing for a dual threat QB like Cam Newton is not as easy.  The Giants have not shown the ability to stop the pass or the run, so this sets up to be a high scoring game.  The Giants do have very athletic defensive lineman that may be able to contain Newton's scrambling better than other teams.

Line Movement: Steady at 0 to 1.5; 72% of Public Betting Giants; 2 Smart $ Bets on Carolina, but at Books with Losing Records to Date

Bet Trends:  The total has gone Over in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games, but Under in 7 of the Giants last 9 games.  Giants are 6-2 ATS last 8 overall and 35-16 ATS last 51 road games.  Panthers are 7-3 ATS last 10 home games, but 2-5 ATS last games following an ATS win.  The Giants are 8-2 ATS last 10 occasions as a 1 point road favorite. 

The Pick:  Carolina +1 @ 2 Units - ATS Trends Favor Giants, but Matchup Favors Carolina

Predicted Score: Carolina 31 / NY Giants 27 (Over 51)

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