Game: Atlanta
-2.5 at KC, O/U 43.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Both of these teams are defensively
strong at the other team's strength, so KC with a good pass D and Atlanta a
strong run D. KC is a tough place to go
on the road and come out with a win and Matt Ryan will be under duress all game
if Michael Turner cannot keep the Chiefs on their heels. Matt Cassel is a terrible QB, but KC will be
able to run the ball this year with Charles and Hillis one of the best speed
and strength tandems in the league. Brandon
Flowers is banged up and the best cover guy on the Chiefs, so between Roddy
White and Julio Jones on the outside Atlanta should be able to move the
ball.
Line Movement: Atlanta
started -1 and has moved as high as -3; 66% of Public Betting Atlanta; Recent
"Steam" on Atlanta
Bet Trends:
Falcons are 10-4 ATS last 14 Week 1 games but 1-4 ATS to start the season on
the road. The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS last 11
games as an underdog. The Under is 12-2
in the Chiefs last 14 home games as well.
The Pick:
Atlanta -2.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Atlanta 20 / Kansas City 13 (Under
43.5)
Game: Philadelphia -9.5 at Cleveland, O/U 43, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Browns come into this game with a
rookie QB in Weeden, although elderly, and RB Trent Richardson coming off a
preseason injury, also lacking many weapons on the outside. The Eagles will have Vick back and with
Maclin/Jackson/McCoy are likely going to be too much for the Browns D to deal with
even though Cleveland was 5th in PPG allowed last season. The Eagles D-Line looks stellar coming into
this season as well and could make for a long day for the Browns.
Line Movement: Cleveland
has spent most of the past week as 9 point dogs with public betting 62% on
Philly;
Bet Trends: Eagles
are 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and Browns are 1-11-1 last 13 Week 1 games and
2-8-2 last 12 ATS at home.
The Pick:
Eagles -9.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Philly 34 / Browns 13 (Over 43)
Game: Washington +7.5 at New Orleans, O/U 50.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Saints should have a big home field
advantage here with all of the offseason ongoing and now the suspension of 3 of
its defensive players lifted. I am a big
RG3 fan but this is quite a task in his debut.
I like what the Skins did in the offseason with the addition of Garcon,
but the RB position remains a mess.
Saints have most of its core remaining and plenty of weapons, and do not
see anyone that can matchup with Jimmy Graham.
Line Movement:
Active Line, New Orleans Opened -8.5, as Low as -7, and now some books at -9
after suspension lifted; 59% of Public Bets Saints
Bet Trends:
Saints are 12-1 ATS last 13 home games.
Redskins are 1-3-1 last 5 ATS on the road.
The Pick:
Saints -7.5 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: New Orleans 34 / Washington 20 (Over
50.5)
Game: St. Louis +7.5 at Detroit, O/U 45, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: The Rams come in with a new coach,
and a good one in Jeff Fisher, but a tough early road test. Sam Bradford is looking to bounce back after
a Sophomore Slump and faces a Lions D that is aggressive, but also vulnerable
to both the run and pass. Defensively
the Rams actually were 7th against the pass last season, and that is the Lions
strength that they will rely on with Best on IR, Kevin Smith hobbled and
LeShoure suspended. The Lions will be
without Delams and Houston in its secondary so Bradford should be due for a big
game.
Line Movement: Detroit
started -9 and then down to -7 and settling near -8 with some "Smart
Money" on the Rams; 74% of the
Public are Betting the Lions
Bet Trends:
Rams are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 overall and 1-10-1 last 12 week 1 games. Rams are
also 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road. Lions
are 11-5 ATS last 16 at home but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall.
The Pick:
Rams +7.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Detroit 27 / St. Louis 24
Game: New England -5.5 at Tenn., O/U 47, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: The Titans made a lot of changes in
the offseason and now have Jake Locker starting at QB, who can make all the
throws and also exploit defenses scrambling, while Britt's suspension has
rookie WR Kendall Wright starting. The
Titans added Wimbley on the D-Line who should keep Tom Brady unsteady all day
with the Pats beat-up and susceptible O-Line.
Pats have Hernandez and Gronkowski that make for a tough matchup for any
team (though Titans LB's are very athletic) and now a real RB in Ridley, while
also made a bunch of moves to try and improve last year's 31st ranked defense
in passing yards allowed. Chris Johnson
should also dice up the Pats D. Titans
should provide a good game early, but in the end I would expect Brady to pull
this one out.
Line Movement: Tenn.
started 7 point dogs and pushed down to 5.5 by some heavy bettors; Public
Betting New England 26% (Squares?)
Bet Trends:
The Over has won 12 of 16 in season openers for the Pats. New England is 9-2-1 last 12 ATS on the
road. Titans are 2-5 ATS last 7 at
home.
The Pick:
Pats -5.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Pats 30 / Titans 20 (Over 47)
Game: Miami +12 at Houston, O/U 42.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Miami has
looked terrible in preseason and on Hard Knocks with a new coach and rookie QB,
and no WR's of any value, and have to face a playoff capable Texans team with
one of the NFL''s best defenses and a core of Schaub/Johnson/Foster on offense
that is as good as any threesome, so this one is a complete mismatch. Miami also traded its top CB to the Colts for
a draft pick.
Line Movement: Houston
Line Moved to -12 from -6.5; 74% of Public Bets Houston
Bet Trends:
Dolphins are 9-1 ATS last 10 overall and 22-8-1 ATS last 31 on the road. Texans are 8-2-2 ATS last 12 overall and
6-2-2 ATS last 10 at home.
The Pick:
Texans -12 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Houston 38 / Miami 13 (Over 42.5)
Game: Buffalo +3 at NY Jets, O/U 38.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: The Jets have won 5 straight against
Buffalo but come into this one with a lot of questions. Offensively Sanchez looked terrible in the
preseason and lacks weapons with Holmes/Hill starting at WR. Buffalo brings in a revamped defense
featuring Mario Williams and should cause a few turnovers by the Jets. The Bills D was dreadful last season, while
the Jets D was 5th against the pass, so look for Buffalo to focus on Fred
Jackson and CJ Spiller.
Line Movement: Jets
have fallen from -6 back in May to -3; Public Betting 58% Buffalo
Bet Trends:
Bills are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 road games and Jets are 2-6 ATS last 8 overall and
1-5 ATS last 6 home games against Buffalo.
The Pick:
Buffalo +3 @ 3 Units - Feels a Bit of a Trap with So Much Attention on Jets
Struggles, but Matchup Favors the Bills
Predicted Score: Buffalo 17 / Jets 13 (Under 38.5)
Game: Jacksonville +3.5 at Minnesota, O/U 39.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: This is a tricky one with the Jags
looking to be the more talented team, but on the road in a loud dome for a raw
QB, and starting RB to be Jennings with MJD just returning from his holdout,
although I expect him to get a lot of touches as the game progresses. The Vikings also shaky at RB with Peterson's
health not fully known, while Ponder is also a young QB and will look to Harvin
and Rudolph. The Vikings were 26th
against the pass last season and did little to improve, so expect rookie
Blackmon to kick off his NFL career with 100+ yards. The Jags actually has a Top 10 D last season
and should limit Minnesota offensively.
Line Movement: Minn.
Favorites -4.5 Pushed Down to -3.5; Public is 50/50 in this Game and Does
Appear to be the Most Difficult of the Week to Pick
Bet Trends:
Jags are 11-2 ATS last 13 week 1 games, but 3-7 ATS last 10 games on the road
and Vikings 7-3 ATS last 10 Week 1 games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 at home.
The Pick:
Jags +3.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Jaguars 24 / Vikings 20 (over 39.5)
Game: Indianapolis +10 at Chicago, O/U 43.5, 1pm 9-9-12
Analysis: It is a bit surprising to see the
public 50/50 in this game. The Bears
made a lot of important offseason moves with Bush, Marshall and Jeffery added
to the fold and the key will be the O-line holding up. Andrew Luck, a guy many say is the best
rookie QB to come into the league in 10 years, will face last year's 28th
ranked pass D, but I have my doubts on his abilities. The Colts were 29th against the run last
year, so Forte/Bush should control this game, but a ground attack calls for a
closer game and potential cover. Indy
lacks much of a ground game so the Bears can come after Luck all day and
welcome him to the NFL, and not many playmakers outside with Wayne aging,
Collie injury-prone, and Fleener a rookie.
Line Movement: Range
of -9.5 to -11; Public is 50/50 in this Game
Bet Trends:
Colts are 4-1 ATS last 5 games, but 4-8 ATS last 12. Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games.
The Pick:
Bears -10 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Bears 30 / Colts 17 (Over 43.5)
Game: Carolina -2.5 at Tampa Bay, O/U 47, 4:25pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Tampa Bay is going to be a sneaky
good team this year, although took a blow in the preseason losing All Pro
lineman Davin Joseph. Expect Josh
Freeman to bounce back this season with the addition of Vincent Jackson on the
outside and rookie RB Dougie Martin.
Defensively is the issue, last in the league in PPG allowed last year
and Cam Newton comes to town. Steve
Smith has been hobbled but should be good to go on game day. Carolina's D was not very good either last
year in the bottom 8, but made some key additions, especially rookie LB Kuechly. Rain is in the forecast.
Line Movement: Shop
Around on the Line, Offered Anywhere from -1 to -3; Public Betting Carolina
70%; Tampa Bay as Drawn a Ton of Size Bets
Bet Trends:
Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 games versus AFC South. Bucs are 6-21 ATS last 27 at home and 0-6 ATS
last 6 overall.
The Pick:
Carolina -2.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Carolina 31 / Tampa Bay 24 (Over 47)
Game: Seattle -3 at Arizona, O/U 40.5, 4:25pm 9-9-12
Analysis: Seattle has received a lot of
attention in the pre-season for its strong showing but does have a late round
rookie QB that is starting his first ever game on the road. Arizona is starting Skeleton at QB, a good
thing, but still not a great option against what should be a ball-hawking D in
Seattle that could get 3-4 takeaways.
Both team's starting backs are questionable with Beanie Wells and
Marshawn Lynch, and although expecting both to play, Arizona has the better
backup with Ryan Williams. Patrick
Peterson returning kicks can also make or break this game.
Line Movement: Arizona
was -1 late August, and Now +2.5 to +3; Public Betting Seattle 67%; Arizona Drawing Smart Money Bets
Bet Trends:
Seahawks 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. NFC and 9-4-1 ATS last 14 overall. Cardinals are 7-3 ATS last 10 overall and 4-1
ATS last 5 at home.
The Pick:
Arizona +3 @ 1 Unit - Rookie QB on the Road as a Favorite, I Will Take the
Points
Predicted Score: Seattle 20 / Arizona 17 (Under 40.5)
Game: San Francisco +5 at Green Bay, O/U 47, 4:25pm 9-9-12
Analysis: This is the game of the week with
the high-powered Packers offense against the stout 49ers D that ranked 4th in
total yards, but was 16th against the pass which is GB's specialty. The Packers D was 32nd against the pass, but
Alex Smith tends to struggle in road games and must not turn the ball over if
the 49ers have a chance, and unreliable WR's in Crabtree and Moss does not
help. Vernon Davis will be the key to
the 49ers success this week with his favorable matchup.
Line Movement: Moving
Down from -7 to -5 Over 2 Months; Public Betting 53% with Packers
Bet Trends:
49ers are 11-3-1 last 15 ATS vs. NFC opponents and 14-4-1 ATS overall last
19. Packers are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 at
home and 15-6 ATS last 21 overall.
Packers have won 14 of its last 15 home games.
The Pick:
Packers -5 @ 1 Unit - Alex Smith on the road in Green Bay, I'll Side with the
Packers
Predicted Score: Packers 27 / 49ers 20
Game: Pittsburgh +2 at Denver, O/U 44.5, 8:20pm 9-9-12
Analysis: This game has a bit more meaning with last year's
Steeler season ending in Denver, but come into this one to face the new look
Peyton Manning led Broncos and without key defensive players Harrison and
Clark. Pittsburgh also has a shaky
running game for the first time in years and Mike Wallace will likely show some
rust, so it could be a long day for Big Ben with Von Miller patrolling. The Broncos are very over-rated to start the
year with people picking them to win it all, and likely to see even more talk
after this one, although they are not facing a healthy team, and these are not
the usual Steelers. Denver's D seemed
better last year but finished ranked 20th in total yards and the Steelers were
#1 again.
Line Movement: Steady
Line with 55% Public Betting Denver
Bet Trends:
Steelers are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 0-4 ATS on the road. Broncos are 15-34-2 ATS last 51 at home
(surprising) and 1-5 ATS last 6 overall.
The Pick:
Denver -2 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Denver 27 / Pittsburgh 21 (Over 44.5)
Game: Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore, O/U 41, 7pm 9-10-12
Analysis: Baltimore's D gets all the attention
but the Bengals D may be better, ranked 7th last season and improving, while
Ravens were 3rd but without Suggs this year, a huge loss and not getting any
younger. The Bengals have Dalton who
will attempt to avoid a sophomore slump with AJ Green as well, and biggest
weakness is at the 2nd WR spot that could see AJ draw double coverage. Baltimore has Torrey Smith in his second year
at WR and due for a big season, and is pretty solid all around. This should be a tight back and forth game.
Line Movement: Moving
Towards Baltimore from -5 to -7; Public
Betting 67% on Baltimore
Bet Trends:
Bengals are 1-6-2 ATS last 9 overall and 0-4-1 ATS last 5 in its division. Ravens are 5-2 ATS on Monday games but 1-4-1
ATS last 6 at home. Bengals are 4-1-1
ATS last 6 versus Baltimore.
The Pick:
Bengals +7 at 3 Unit
Predicted Score: Baltimore 23 / Bengals 17 (Under 41)
Game: San Diego +1 at Oakland, O/U 46.5, 10:15pm 9-10-12
Analysis: The Chargers come into this game
without starting RB Matthews and WR Brown and lost Vincent Jackson in the
offseason. Antonio Gates has been
contained by the Raiders safety's recently and will be their focal point to
shut him down and new Defensive minded coach Dennis Allen has a lot of new
schemes in place, and will be much more aggressive blitzing which Rivers
struggles against. The Raiders
offensively have the most explosive weapons in the NFL and McFadden should post
a huge game, while Denarius Moore is practicing and would be a huge boost to a
banged up WR core. The main issue here
is Carson Palmer and his tendency to force the ball and throw
interceptions. The other Raider weakness
is returning kicks with Jacoby Ford injured and major struggles in this area
pre-season so field position could have a major impact. However, Oakland's front 7 should dominate
this game and take pressure of the Raider's shaky secondary, although one that
struggles against tall WR's like Malcolm Floyd.
Line Movement: Oakland
from +1.5 to -1 with a Steam Move; 55% of Public Betting Chargers
Bet Trends: Chargers
are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 0-4 ATS in September. Raiders are 4-0 ATS last 4 in September and
10-3 ATS last 13 in its division, but just 2-7 ATS on Monday Night games. Chargers are 1-5 ATS last 6 against the
Raiders.
The Pick:
Oakland -1 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Oakland 31 / San Diego 27
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