Game: Bucs +7 at
Giants, O/U 44, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Giants will look to bounce back from a poor performance Week 1 and avoid a
season of the Superbowl Hangover. Tampa
Bay is a team that is going to sneak up on opponents this year and have a
strong core unit of young offensive talent and shut down Cam Newton last week
defensively. The Cowboys ran and threw
all over the Giants last week and Tampa will look to exploit the same
holes.
Line
Movement: Down from -9 on 9-13 with "Steam";
68% of Public Betting Giants
Bet
Trends: Bucs are 1-6 ATS last
7 games overall and 0-4 ATS last 4 road games.
Giants are 6-1 ATS last 7 and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. the NFC, but 3-5-1 ATS
last 9 home games.
The
Pick: Giants -7 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Giants
24 / Bucs 13 (Under 44)
Game: Raiders -1
at Dolphins, O/U 39, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Raiders once again with a rough schedule this season with a record amount of
trips to the East Coast and this week after a late Monday Night game, so
fatigue could play a factor. Oakland is
clearly the better team and outplayed the Chargers last week, and would have
won easy if not for the long-snapper injury disaster. The Raiders defense held the Chargers to 5
FG's after starting in their territory, so the Dolphins likely really struggle
to score points after last week's performance against the Texans. However, the Raiders did lose starting CB
Bartell to a shoulder injury, but Miami really lacks any major threats at WR. Offensively the Raiders run an offense
similar to the Texans so should find success and get stud WR Denarius Moore
back into the fold.
Line
Movement:
Down from -2.5 on 9/12 to -1 Due to Some Smart $, although not Very Sharp Books;
80% of the Public Betting the Raiders
Bet
Trends: Miami is 4-8 ATS last
12 at home but 6-1 ATS last 7 overall vs. the AFC. Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 road games and
8-3-1 ATS last 12 games following a loss.
Oakland is 3-8 ATS its last 11 games against Miami.
The
Pick: Raiders -1 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Raiders
27 / Dolphins 17 (Over 39)
Game: Texans -7
at Jaguars, O/U 41, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Texans looked good last week but the public bettors look to be getting too
excited over a win against the Dolphins.
The Jags put in a great effort against the Vikings and have a solid D
and Gabbert improving by the week, a team that could be a great underdog pick
all season long. MJD will handle the
full workload this week with Jennings out and the O-Line is banged up, but the
Texans run-D has struggled early this year.
Line
Movement:
-9 on 9/11 pushed down with a lot of Smart $ on Jags; 85% of Public (Squares)
Betting Texans
Bet
Trends: Jags are 6-14 ATS
last 20 versus the Texans. Texans are
5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Jags are
4-1-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC South teams and 6-2 ATS last 8 after a loss.
The
Pick: Jags +7 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Texans 23 / Jaguars 17 (Under 41)
Game: Browns +7
at Bengals, O/U 38.5, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Bengals D was torched by the Ravens and coming off a short week with top
tackler Howard out for this game. The
Browns deserved to win against the Eagles last week and will stress to Weeden
not to make mistakes and use Richardson more to control the game, while the D
played stellar and will keep them in games all year long. The absence of Haden for the Browns is a big
problem with AJ Green on the outside.
The Bengals should bounce back this week, but it should be an ugly grind
it out type game.
Line
Movement:
Consistent at -7 with 71% Public Betting Bengals
Bet
Trends: Bengals are 1-7-2 ATS
last 10 games overall and 1-4 ATS at home.
Browns are 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road and 7-1 ATS last 8 on fieldturf. Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS last 8 vs. AFC
opponents.
The
Pick: Browns +7 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Bengals
20 / Browns 16 (Under 38.5)
Game: Chiefs +3
at Buffalo Bills, O/U 45, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: I'm not
sure any team looked as poorly as Buffalo did last week and against a Jets team
that is not very talented offensively, but let Sanchez go to town on their
D. The Bills will be without Fred
Jackson although Spiller is an explosive back that filled in well last week,
while the Chiefs get pass rushing specialist Hali back and would be real key if
Flowers also returns. Expect Kansas City
to have no issue moving the ball in this one and a couple of the usual
Fitzpatrick mistakes can allow them to pull the upset win on the road.
Line
Movement:
Pushed Down from 5.5 to 3 with Public at 66% on the Chiefs
Bet
Trends: Kansas City is 0-5
ATS last 5 against the Bills. Chiefs are
5-2 ATS last 7 road games. Bills are 1-5
ATS last 6 overall.
The
Pick: Chiefs +3 @ 3 Units
Predicted
Score: Chiefs
31 / Bills 27 (Over 45)
Game: Ravens +3
at Eagles, O/U 46, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Eagles come into this big game after a narrow victory against the Browns last
week and both starting WR's in Jackson and Maclin are questionable for this
game. The Ravens looked sharp on Monday
night on both sides of the ball, a true Superbowl contender, but tend to play
lackluster following a big win on a short week.
The Eagles cannot afford to make the mistakes they made last week if
having any chance to win this game. The
Bengals were able to effectively run against the Ravens, so McCoy could make
some plays. The Ravens need to get Ray
Rice more involved this week, but the Eagles do match-up well defensively.
Line
Movement:
Consistent but Offered Anywhere from -1.5 to -3 at Diff. Books So Shop Around;
87% of the Public Betting Ravens!
Bet
Trends: Ravens are 2-8 ATS
last 10 games when playing on Sunday after a Monday game and 3-9-1 ATS last 13
after a 14 point or greater victory.
Eagles are 3-8 ATS last 11 home games.
Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 versus the Eagles.
The
Pick: Ravens +3 @ 3 Units
Predicted
Score: Ravens 27 / Eagles 24 (Over 46)
Game: Saints -3
at Panthers, O/U 51.5, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Saints were beat up by the Skins last week and the public is right back on
their bandwagon, not realizing the importance of Sean Payton to this team. If they had trouble stopping a rookie QB with
RG3 I imagine Cam Newton will have a lot of success as a similar style QB. The Saints will look to exploit the Panthers
D that is much improved from prior years and will need to establish some sort
of ground game.
Line
Movement:
Line Ranging from -1 to -3 Across Books, Smart $ on Carolina at Multiple Books
at +2.5; 83% of Public Bets Saints Despite Last Week's Performance
Bet
Trends: Saints are 9-1 ATS
last 11 overall and 19-7 ATS last 26 following a loss. Panthers are 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. AFC South
teams. Saints are 2-6 ATS against the
Panthers in the last 8.
The
Pick: Panthers +3 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Saints
27 / Panthers 24 (Under 51.5)
Game: Arizona
+13.5 at New England, O/U 48.5, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The Pats
rolled last week over a pretty solid Titans team and look to have a much better
D this season. The Cards were surprisingly
good against Seattle and Kolb gets the start this week on the road, which has
bad written all over it. The Patriots
also have an effective running game finally which should free up play-action
shots down the field. Arizona failed to
get anything going on the ground last week and seeing as the Pats shut down
Chris Johnson last week, this week is unlikely to go any better for Arizona.
Line
Movement:
Range -13 to -14 with 81% of Public Betting Pats
Bet
Trends: Cardinals are 8-3 ATS
last 11 overall but just 6-13 ATS last 19 road games. Pats are 2-4 ATS last 6 at home.
The
Pick: Pats -13.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Pats 34 / Cardinals 13 (Under 48.5)
Game: Vikings
-2 at Colts, O/U 44, 1pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The game
that no one will be watching this week features Andrew Luck's home debut
against a beatable Vikings team that struggled against a road Jags team last
weekend. The Colts may be lit up again
this week as the D looked bad against the Bears and the Vikings have playmakers
in Peterson and Harvin. A sleeper in
this one is WR TY Hilton for the Colts who makes his debut. The edge in this one has to go to Minnesota
because of the better defense and Jared Allen should harass Luck much of the
day.
Line
Movement:
Consistent with 50/50 Public Split, 1 Smart $ Bet on Vikings at -1
Bet
Trends: Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS
last 5 on the road but 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall. Colts are 4-9 ATS last 13 overall and 4-10
ATS last 14 home games.
The
Pick: Vikings -2 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Vikings
27 / Colts 20 (Over 44)
Game: Redskins
-3 at St. Louis Rams, O/U 44.5, 4:05pm 9-16-12
Analysis: RG3 broke
onto the scene in a big way last week with an upset win vs. the Saints and he
looked great, while Alfred Morris took over as the lead back and was
efficient. Garcon is questionable for
the game, but should be playing. The
Rams O-Line is a weak spot and Bradford lacks weapons, so the Washington D
could have a big day.
Line
Movement: 3
to 3.5 Range with Public 82% on Skins (Over-Reaction?) - Skins Also Attracting
Majority of Smart $ Bets
Bet
Trends: Rams are 5-15-1 ATS
last 21 overall but covered last week against the Lions. Skins are 4-8-1 ATS last 13 games overall and
1-4 ATS last 5 vs. the Rams.
The
Pick: Skins -3 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Skins 34 /
Rams 20 (Over 44.5)
Game: Cowboys
-3 at Seahawks, O/U 42, 4:05pm 9-16-12
Analysis: The
Cowboys looked good against the Giants and the whole offense clicked with
plenty of weapons, but the theme with the Cowboys is inconsistency and Seattle
is a completely different team at home and has a better D than the Giants. Wilson looked shaky in his first start, and
Lynch needs to get going in this one to keep it close. The Cowboys O-Line is still a liability and
in a loud environment may struggle to protect Romo.
Line
Movement:
Consistent at -3 and 84% of Public Betting Cowboys and Smart $ on Cowboys
Bet
Trends: Cowboys are 2-7 ATS
last 9 vs. the NFC and 2-8 ATS last 10 games following a win. Seahawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 home games and
9-3 ATS last 12 games on turf. Dallas is
2-4 ATS last 6 on the road.
The
Pick: Seattle +3 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Dallas
27 / Seattle 24 (Over 42)
Game: NY Jets
+5 at Pittsburgh, O/U 41.5, 4:25pm 9-16-12
Analysis: This game
looks to be coming down to key injuries with Revis and Keller out for the Jets
and Harrison and Polamalu out for the Steelers.
On offense the Steelers no longer have the running game to keep defenses
balanced, but Wallace and Brown should thrive against a Jet's secondary without
Revis. For the Jets they quieted the
public last week, but it was the Bills, and Sanchez is sure to find less
success even with the Steelers D missing key players.
Line
Movement:
Active, Opened -6.5 and Down to -5; 53% of Public Betting Steelers
Bet
Trends: Jets are 1-6 ATS last
7 games on grass and 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road. Steelers are 8-0 ATS in games following a
loss and 8-3 ATS last 11 at home, but 1-5 ATS last 6 overall.
The
Pick: Steelers -5 @ 2 Units
Predicted
Score: Steelers 20 / Jets 13 (Under 41.5)
Game: Titans +7
at Chargers, O/U 43, 4:25pm 9-16-12
Analysis: San Diego
is notorious for slow starts and comes in a heavy favorite this week although
Rivers looked terrible last week and Matthews still out of the lineup, and
Gates with a bad rib. Titans were beat
by the Pats last week but showed some positive signs with Locker looking good
before he got hurt and set to play this weekend. CJ2K needs to get the ball early and often
and break some big runs.
Line
Movement:
Consistent -6 to -7 Range at Books; 74% of Public Betting Chargers with 1 Smart
$ Bet on Titans
Bet
Trends: Titans are 3-1-1 ATS
last 5 on the road and 7-3 ATS last 10 after a double digit loss at home. Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall. Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road against
the Chargers.
The
Pick: Titans +7 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Chargers 23 / Titans 17
Game: Lions
+6.5 at 49ers, O/U 46, 8:20pm 9/16/12
Analysis: This line
looks to be an over-reaction after week 1 with the Lions narrow victory vs. the
Rams and 49ers impressive win at Green Bay, and both teams will be fired up for
the "handshake bowl." The
Lions will once again be without Delmas and Houston in the secondary, a big
blow. San Francisco is as solid of a
team as there is in the NFL and the Defense shut down Rodgers, so should have
similar success against the Lions with schemes to prevent Calvin Johnson from
getting the ball.
Line
Movement:
Range of -6 to -7 with 76% of Public on 49ers and 1 Smart $ Bet on Lions at +7
Bet
Trends: Lions are 1-6-1 ATS
last 8 overall and 0-4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. 49ers are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 vs. the NFC and
15-5-1 ATS last 21 overall. 49ers are
10-1-1 ATS last 12 at home. Lions are
1-5-1 ATS last 7 on the road against the 49ers.
The
Pick: 49ers -6.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted
Score: 49ers
27 / Lions 16 (Under 46)
Game: Broncos +3 at Falcons, O/U 51, 8:30pm
9-17-12
Analysis: A great Monday Night matchup with
Peyton Manning on the road, but comfortably in domes, and facing the Falcons
with Matt Ryan who is as close to Peyton Manning as I have seen. The Falcons offense looked unstoppable last week
and with Julio Jones and Roddy White it is a matchup problem for any team. Manning looked good last week, although it
was not against the usual Steelers Defense.
Line Movement: Range of -3 to -3.5 with 62% of
Public Betting Broncos
Bet Trends: Broncos are 5-2 ATS last 7 road games but 1-4 ATS last
5 Monday Night games. Falcons are 1-5
ATS last 6 on Monday Night. The Over has
hit 7 of the last 8 between these two teams.
The Pick: Falcons -3 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Falcons 31 / Broncos 27 (Over 51)
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