NFL Week 3 Betting Preview/Picks

Game: Tampa Bay +8 at Dallas, O/U 46, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Bucs are coming off a second half collapse and have to travel to Dallas for this one, the type of loss that can stick with you for awhile.  The Bucs defense is 25th against the pass and 16th against the run so look for Dallas' offense to get back in rhythm after a poor showing last week in Seattle.  The Cowboys secondary is much improved this season and Ware continues to wreak havoc for opposing QB's.  Schiano has the Bucs heading in the right direction, but I feel Tampa will still be feeling the effects of last week's loss.

Line Movement: Jumped from -7 to -9 and Was Not Public Money, Public with 62% on the Underdog Bucs

Bet Trends:  Bucs are 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Cowboys are 2-7 ATS last 9 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS last 6 games versus Tampa Bay.

The Pick:  Dallas -8 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Dallas 34 / Tampa Bay 20

Game:  Jaguars +3 at Colts, O/U 43, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Jags come in looking for their first win and MJD has enjoyed a lot of success against the Colts in the past.  Indy's defense is still fairly soft, but Luck has looked sharp the first two games.  The Colts should have success running the ball against a team that gave up 200 yards on the ground last week and set up the play-action pass.  It comes down to which QB makes the most plays, and surprisingly the rookie Luck looks to have the advantage.

Line Movement: Sharps Grabbed +3.5 on the Open, Steady at +3 Now; 80% of Public Betting Colts (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Jags are 1-10 its last 11 road games.  Colts are 5-2 ATS last 7 games overall but 0-11 ATS last 11 versus teams with losing records.  Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home versus the Jags.

The Pick:  Colts -3 @ 1 Unit (Prefer to Grab at -2.5, Set Alert)

Predicted Score: Colts 20 / Jags 13

Game: Buffalo -3 at Cleveland, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: This line looks to be the most attractive one of the year with the Bills getting far too much respect after beating a terrible Chiefs team and the public quickly forgetting about the embarrassing loss to the Jets.  Cleveland deserved to beat the Eagles and now Richardson is rolling on offense which alleviates a lot of pressure off Weeden.  The Bills are still prone to turnovers and I lack faith in Fitzpatrick who is hot and cold.  The Browns have 8 sacks in 2 games and have forced turnovers, but it's been boom or bust, also giving up a ton of big plays especially with Haden out. 

Line Movement: Steady with 64% of Public Betting the Bills; Cleveland is Drawing Quite a Few "Wise-Guy" Bets

Bet Trends:  Bills are 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Browns are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 games following a loss and overall as well as 10-1 ATS in games following a 250 yard passing performance, but 3-8-2 ATS last 13 home games.

The Pick:  Browns +3 @ 3 Units (If Jumps to 3.5 Grab It Fast)

Predicted Score:  Browns 27 / Bills 23

Game: Jets -2.5 at Miami, O/U 41.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Jets were out-matched against the Steelers and still have a ton of problems on offense with Sanchez at QB, but get a boost on Defense with the return of Revis expected.  Miami clicked last week and Reggie Bush is looking good, while the rookie QB developed chemistry with Hartline on timing routes.  The Jets are allowing 130.5 yards a game on the ground.  Ryan should dial up some confusing looks for the rookie QB who has to take care of the ball, and if so, the Dolphins can easily win this game.

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Pushed Down to 1 at Some Books with Bovada Still Offering 3; 75% of Public Betting the Jest but the Smart $ is Hot for Miami at Multiple Books

Bet Trends:  Jets are 2-8 ATS last 10 games on the road.  Dolphins are 7-1 ATS last 8 games vs. the AFC and 10-2 ATS last 12 overall.  Miami is 3-11 ATS last 14 home games against the Jets.

The Pick:  Miami +3 at 2 Units (Grabbed It at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Miami 20 / Jets 16

Game: Kansas City +9 at New Orleans, O/U 53, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The public still likes the Saints despite two poor showings, and at home they remain a tough team, but struggling with the loss of Payton leading the way.  The Chiefs looked dismal in Buffalo, so tough to imagine much is to change this week, but the Saints D is an easy one to exploit.  The Chiefs have the talent on the D-Line to keep Brees off his game and Dwayne Bowe will need to step-up on offense, also the coaches need to utilize Charles/Hillis better running the ball after the Panthers ran all over the Saints.  This has the feel that it could be a back and forth game.

Line Movement: Steady with 74% of Public on Saints; A Couple Smart $ Bets Took KC at +8

Bet Trends:  Chiefs are 2-4 ATS last 6 games.  Saints are 12-2 ATS last 14 home games. 

The Pick:  Chiefs +10 (5Dimes has +10 Available) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: New Orleans 30 / KC 24

Game: Bengals +3 at Redskins, O/U 49.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: Skins were disappointing last week with a loss to the Rams following a win at the Saints, although now we know the Saints are not that good this year.  Skins also come in banged up without Garcon at WR and now Cariker and Orakpo on the D-Line, huge losses especially this week against a Bengals team that has already allowed 10 sacks.  The Bengals should be able to move the ball and expect a big breakout game for AJ Green.  Although Cincy ranks 32nd against the pass it has experienced solid corners in Hall and Clements that could capitalize on RG3 forcing the ball into coverage.

Line Movement: Opened -4, Steady at -3; 52% of Public Betting Skins; No Smart $ Activity

Bet Trends:  Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS last 11 games and 0-3-2 ATS last 5 on the road.  Skins are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 at home. 

The Pick:  Bengals +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 / Skins 24

Game: Rams +7 at Bears; O/U 43, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: Both teams come in with injuries to starting RB's, but Chicago will not see much of a drop-off with Bush.  The Bears looked terrible against the Packers and still have issues protecting Cutler and have to face Chris Long of the Rams this week.  You never really know what you will get from the Bears from 1 week to the next.  The Rams have weak spots at the Tackles which could make for a long day for Bradford with Peppers rushing the passer.  Cutler has a history of bouncing back with big games after games when his passer rating is below 50. 

Line Movement: Range of -7.5 to -9 at Books (Inflated to Protect Teases); 52% of Public Betting Underdog Rams

Bet Trends:  Rams are 4-11 ATS last 15 vs. the NFC and 5-13-1 ATS last 19 overall, while 1-10 straight up on the road in the last 11 games and 2-9 ATS in those games.  Bears are 2-5-1 ATS last 8 overall. 

The Pick:  Bears -7 @ 2 Units (Could be Swayed if See Any Smart $ Moves)

Predicted Score: Bears 31 / Rams 20

Game: 49ers +7 at Minnesota Vikings, O/U 42.5, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The 49ers are coming off an emotional win against the Lions while the Vikings lost on the road to the Colts, but fought back late.  The 49ers D is difficult for anyone, and for 2nd year QB Ponder it is sure to be a problem, and Peterson is still not back to form.  The Vikings D has shut down the run this year and will look to make the 49ers 1-dimensional. 

Line Movement: Opened at -7 and Pushed Down to -6.5 at Some Books and with 82% of Public (Squares) on the 49ers this was not Mom & Pop, It was Smart $ on the Vikings

Bet Trends:  49ers are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games and 1-7 ATS last 8 road games against the Vikings.  Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  49ers are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 overall. 

The Pick:  Vikings +7.5 @ 1 Unit (Has the feel of a late back-door cover and Bovada offering that extra 1/2 point is attractive)

Predicted Score:  49ers 23 / Vikings 16

Game: Lions -3.5 at Titans, O/U 47, 1pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Lions are lucky to not be 0-2 and have looked shaky with Stafford making a ton of lousy throws and Calvin Johnson barely involved, and Suh's name is hardly mentioned anymore, so much for being a force.  On the other hand the Titans have looked worse and I have lost betting them as dogs each of the first two weeks.  Locker is hurting and Chris Johnson can't get a thing going, and the Defense is a mess.  The Lions D is actually top 10 in yardage allowed with the Titans 26th.  Neither team has lived up to their potential as both are talented on both sides of the ball. 

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Now Steady at 3.5; 86% of Public Bets Lions 

(Squares) while Tenn. Attracting a few Wise-Guy Bets Especially at +4

Bet Trends:  Lions are 1-8 ATS last 9 games and 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road.  Titans are 0-5 ATS last 5 games and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  Something has to give....

The Pick:  Titans +4 @ 1 Unit (Offered at Bovada and 5Dimes) - Fool me Once, Fool me Twice....Fool me a 3rd time?

Predicted Score: Lions 27 / Titans 24

Game: Falcons +3 at Chargers, O/U 47.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: There are no major statistical edges in this one but Atlanta is traveling to the West Coast for a game after playing on MNF.  The Chargers D ranks in the Top 3 in most categories but will face its toughest test.  Atlanta's D showed up strong against Peyton Manning and should have no problem against the Chargers less talented WR's.  The Falcons need to get the ground game going this week and have more balance on the road, and win the field position battle.  Abraham will be the key to the Falcons D needing to pressure Rivers who can get rattled quickly.

Line Movement: Steady at -3 with 72% of Public Betting Underdog Falcons

Bet Trends:  Falcons are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.  Chargers are 6-1 ATS last 7 games. 

The Pick:  Falcons +3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Falcons 27 / Chargers 20

Game: Eagles -3.5 at Cardinals, O/U 42.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: The matchup of two 2-0 teams, one, the Eagles, that deserves to be 0-2 with all of the mistakes and turnovers, and the other, the Cardinals, a surprise start to the season.  The Eagles as a 3.5 point favorite on the road is a bit of a slap in the face to the Cardinals who just beat the Pats last week and shut down that explosive offense.  Kevin Kolb will also be looking to prove himself versus his former team.  Both defenses have been able to make up for their offenses' shortcomings and the Eagles will be without Maclin this week and the Cardinals D-Line can really create plays, and Vick has looked bad this season.

Line Movement: Range of -3 to -4 with Sharps on Arizona at 4; 51% of Public Bets on Cardinals

Bet Trends:  Eagles are 3-8 ATS last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Cardinals are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC opponents and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games, also 9-3 ATS last 12 overall. 

The Pick:  Cardinals +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cardinals 23 / Eagles 20

Game: Texans -1 @ Broncos, O/U 44.5, 4:05pm on 9-23

Analysis: Denver is coming off a short-week with the loss on MNF and Manning's lack of arm strength becoming an issue as defenses can jump routes, and if Atlanta's D was able to stop him, the Texans sport the second best D in the league.  Denver's D should have some success also with Houston relying on its run game and likely stacking 8 in the box.  Champ Bailey will lock up Andre Johnson, so the Texans need to get contributions from other WR's and that has been their weak spot. 

Line Movement: Offered Between 1 and 3 at Different Books; 66% of Public Bets the Texans with Denver Seeing Small "Wise-Guy" Action

Bet Trends:  Denver is 3-6-1 ATS last 10 home games and 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Texans are 12-3-2 ATS last 17 vs. the AFC and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 games following a win.

 

The Pick:  Houston -1 @ 1 Unit ( Denver +3 Offered at Bovada and Would Take that Line)

Predicted Score: Houston 20 / Denver 17

Game: Steelers -3.5 at Oakland, O/U 45.5, 4:25pm on 9-23

Analysis: The Raiders are seeing a lot of media rank them in the bottom 3 teams of the league, and it is really unfair, and not just saying that as a Raiders fan.  They lost to start the season due to a long-snapper injury, a fluke, and then had to travel East on a very short week and looked unprepared.  Offensively they have talent across the board and still getting use to the zone blocking scheme and the Steelers D will be without Harrison and Polamalu.  The Steelers offense should also find success in this one via the passing game with both of the Raiders top corners out injured, so Wallace and Brown are likely to have big days if the Raiders D-Line, one of the league's best, can't get to Big Ben.  Woodley is likely to be a problem for the Raiders with their backup right tackle in and even starter Barnes was not a great pass protector.  Oakland needs to come out with a game-plan in this one and more intensity, and I think one reason for all the money on the Raiders is the replacement ref impact, likely scared to make calls against the Raiders and their crazed fans.

Line Movement: Opened at 5 and Pushed Down to 3.5 with the most Smart $ Action of the Week on the 0-2 Raiders; 84% of Public Bets Steelers (Squares)

Bet Trends:  Steelers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road.  Oakland is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games.  Steelers are 2-4 ATS last 6 against Oakland.

The Pick:  Oakland +4.5 (Offered at Bovada) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Steelers 27/ Oakland 24 (Strong Statistical Trends Call for the Over)

Game: Pats +2.5 at Ravens, O/U 49.5, 8:20pm on 9-23

Analysis: A great primetime matchup and the Pats will look to bounce back and avoid going 1-2, and history favors Brady leading the Pats to a win this week, although the loss of Hernandez will be felt.  The Pats D actually ranks better than the Ravens so far this season, and Baltimore has been susceptible to the run, so Ridley could be set for a strong game.  Baltimore's D is not what it once was and Brady should be able to bounce back in this one, and the improved Pats D will contain Ray Rice .

Line Movement: Opened at 3 and Pushed Down to 1.5 at Some Books, Still Offered at 3 at Bovada; 54% of Public Betting Ravens and No Smart $ Action Yet

Bet Trends:  Pats are 34-16-1 ATS following a loss and 13-6 ATS last 19 vs. the AFC.  Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 2-4-1 ATS last 7 at home and have lost 8 of its last 9 to New England. 

The Pick:  Pats +3 @ 4 Units (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Pats 31 / Ravens 27

Game: Green Bay -3 at Seattle, O/U 45, 8:30pm on 9-24

Analysis: The Seahawks proved themselves last week with a dominating effort against the Cowboys and continue to be a different team at home, although also showing us that the Cardinals are for real.  Seattle defensively is a team athletic enough to defend Rodgers and all his weapons and with the Packers 1-dimensional Seattle should be able to play a good game on defense.  The issue is on offense where Wilson has looked shaky and will need another strong game from Lynch to have a chance for the upset.  The Packers thrive on turnovers so if Wilson can take care of the ball Seattle has the advantage. 

Line Movement: Opened 3.5 and a Ton of Smart $ Bet Seattle, Still Offered at 3.5 at Bovada

Bet Trends: Packers are 23-10 ATS last 33 overall but 1-5 ATS last 6 following an ATS win.  Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS on MNF and 10-3 ATS last 13 on turf, also 8-3 ATS at home last 11. 

The Pick:  Seattle +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Green Bay 27 / Seattle 24