Game: Patriots -3.5 at Buffalo Bills, O/U
50.5, 1pm on 9-30
Analysis: The Pats have lost two straight
and now have to head to Buffalo which has won two straight. Statistically the Pats tends to respond very
well after losing 2 in a row with average winning margins of 20 points. Offensively the Bills need Fitzpatrick to not
turn the ball over to have a chance, and surprisingly Spiller is practicing and
may play, and the Bills rushing attack has been great this season. The keys for the Bills will be controlling
the clock and getting a pass rush on Tom Brady.
The Bills were burnt by a much less talented Jets team through the air
in Week 1 so that is a major liability into this game but they do have safeties
that are ball hawks. The Bills will be
eying this game as the key to their season and to gain some respect, and I
think it is a team coming together that will be ready for the challenge.
Line Movement: Opened near -5 on 9/24 and pushed down despite 83% of
Public on the Pats, so the Smart $ on Buffalo Bills and confirmed at multiple
books.
Bet Trends: Pats are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. AFC East teams and
51-24-3 ATS last 78 road games. Bills
are 1-5 ATS last 6 AFC East games and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 following an ATS
win. Pats are 7-1 ATS last 8 vs. the
Bills and road team is 10-4 ATS last 14 matchups.
The Pick: Bills +4.5 (Offered at Bovada) @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Pats 30 / Bills 27
Game: 49ers -4 at NY Jets, O/U 41.5, 1pm on
9-30
Analysis: The 49ers were upset in Minnesota
last weekend and now have to make a trip to the East Coast to play a similarly
structured team. The Jets are 2-1 but
they are far from being good, no established run game and Sanchez still making
boneheaded mistakes. The defense has been unable to stop the run
and now without Revis for the season on pass D.
The 49ers were exposed last week and look for the Jets to utilize a
similar game plan. The 49ers need to
establish Gore early and often and defensively should be able to contain the
Jets. This sets up to be a smash mouth
game and one where a lot of red zone opportunities turn into FG's, so taking
the home dog makes a lot of sense.
Line Movement: Opened 3.5 and Steady at 4 with 79% of Public Betting
the 49ers yet Jets seeing more Sharp $ than any team this week.
Bet Trends: 49ers are 14-4-3 ATS last 21 after an ATS loss and
18-6-2 ATS last 26 after a loss. Jets
are 2-8 ATS last 10 after allowing 150 rushing yards in previous game. The underdog is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings
between these two teams.
The Pick: Jets+4.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: 49ers 23 / Jets 20
Game: Seahawks -3 at St. Louis Rams, O/U 39,
1pm on 9-30
Analysis: The Rams played their poorest game of the
season last week but return home where they are 1-0. Seattle is coming off of a short-week in one
of the league's most controversial games in history, so the light rest and
distraction factors play a role. Seattle
plays defense as good as any team in the league with a pass rush and secondary
of star players, but I am not sold on the offense and Wilson struggled his
first game on the road and teams can focus on stopping Lynch. Expect both teams to struggle equally
offensively and comes down to which team makes mistakes, and a rookie QB in
Wilson likely is the one to make the mistakes especially with Finnegan lurking
in the Rams secondary and Jenkins.
However, Bradford was sacked 6 times last week and now faces a team that
had a ton of sacks last week. Steven
Jackson should be healthier this week and take some pressure off of Bradford
who still lacks weapons on the outside.
Line Movement: Opened at 1 and Pushed to 3 Although Smart $ Indicates
Money on Rams Spread Moving Towards Seahawks with 66% of Public Action.
Bet Trends: Seahawks are 11-5-1 ATS last 17 overall but 17-36-2
ATS last 55 road games. Rams are 4-12
ATS last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
Seahawks are 9-1 ATS last 10 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS last
10 meetings.
The Pick: Rams +3 @ 1
Unit
Predicted Score: Rams 16 / Seahawks 13
Game: Panthers +7.5 at Falcons, O/U 48.5, 1pm
on 9-30
Analysis:
The Panthers were able to have some extra time to prepare for this game
after a dismal effort Thursday night against the Giants, a team under-achieving
to start the season but maybe Steve Smith lit a fire under Cam Newton. They head on the road to face arguably the
best team in the NFL, definitely the most efficient offense and a defense that
is much improved. The Falcons traveled
to San Diego and whipped the Chargers only allowing Rivers to get 3
points. The one advantage here is that
Carolina can run the football and the Falcons are ranked poor in yards per
carry against. The Panthers secondary
was exposed by Ramses Barden last week, so Jones/White should be set for big
games. Cam Newton will really have to be
Superman in this one for the Panthers to have any chance, and I do not see it
happening in Atlanta.
Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and Pushed Down to 8 and 7.5 at Some Books
with Carolina Drawing Sharp $ Action with 72% of Public Betting Falcons
Bet Trends: Panthers are 4-10 ATS last 14 vs. teams with winning
records, but 5-2 ATS last after an ATS loss.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 1-5 ATS last 6 after a win of 14
or more points. Home Team 6-2 ATS last 8
meetings and favorite is 4-0.
The Pick: Atlanta -7.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Atlanta 34 / Carolina
24
Game: Vikings +4 at Lions, O/U 47.5, 1pm on
9-30
Analysis: The Vikings are coming off a great upset of
the 49ers and head on the road for the second time this season, losing its
first trip at Indy. Minnesota is an
efficient football team that plays strong defense and moves the ball with a
well-balanced pass/run attack, and Ponder is really getting into a zone and
Harvin and Rudolph are nice weapons. The
Lions have not looked any good this season, tending to get down early, but have
shown the ability to fight back. The
defense is a liability and Stafford does not look like an elite QB at all with
some throws that make me wonder if he should even be in the league. Detroit found a running game with Leshoure
and Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the league but teams finding ways to shut
him down. The Vikings are a team that
fights hard for a full 60 minutes and as a 4 point underdog to a team that
often plays uninspired I like their chances.
Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Down to 4 with 57% Public Betting
Lions, Limited Smart $ Action.
Bet Trends: Vikings are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 overall and 2-8-1 ATS
last 11 vs. NFC North. Lions are 2-5 ATS
last 7 at home and 1-10 ATS last 11 vs. NFC opponents. Vikings 3-1-2 ATS last 6 meetings and the
Favorite is 3-1-2 ATS.
The Pick: Vikings +4 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Vikings 27 / Lions 23
Game: Chargers -1.5 at KC Chiefs, O/U 44, 1pm
on 9-30
Analysis: The Chargers looked terrible
against the Falcons last week, granted a great team, but a lot of questions
remain with this team, a lack of threats on offense and Rivers tendency to
force balls and make mistakes. The
Chiefs are looking to carry last week's thrilling win momentum as they return
home to Arrowhead and really have the running game going with Hillis/Charles
proving a lethal combo, although San Diego only giving up 67 yards a game
rushing. The defense has been very
disappointing so far this season, but starting to get healthy and should see a
better effort this week in a rivalry game.
The Chargers WR height is a mismatch against the Chiefs small secondary,
but Justin Houston is playing great for the Chiefs and should take away time
from Rivers.
Line Movement: KC Opened +1 and is seeing a ton of Sharp $ Action; 70%
of Public Betting the Chargers
Bet Trends: Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. the AFC but 3-7-1 ATS
last 11 games following a loss. Chiefs
are 2-6 ATS last 8 vs. the AFC but 4-1 ATS last 5 games vs. winning teams. Home Team 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and
Chargers are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games in KC.
The Pick: Chiefs +1.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Chiefs 27 / Chargers 24
Game: Titans +12 at Texans, O/U 44.5, 1pm on
9-30
Analysis: The Texans will try to remain
undefeated after winning two on the road and have really had their way with
opponents so far this season, a balanced attack offensively and a D led by
superstar DE JJ Watt. The Titans have
been disappointing but pulled out a win last week, mostly due to turnovers and
do not expect the Texans to be so charitable.
The Titans have no running game and Locker is raw with talent, but not
yet showing a great connection with his receivers. Houston should get control in this one early
and barring a late back-door cover they should win easily.
Line Movement: Opened -13 and Steady at -12; Only 63% of Public Bets
Texans, Surprising; 1 Smart Book Bets Titans
Bet Trends: Titans are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall. Texans are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 after scoring 30+
points in prior game and 13-3-2 ATS last 18 vs. the AFC and 15-5-2 ATS last 22
overall. Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS last 17
meetings between these teams.
The Pick: Texans -12 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Texans 34 / Titans 17
Game: Bengals -1.5 at Jaguars, O/U 43.5, 4pm
on 9-30
Analysis: After starting the season with a
blowout loss to the Ravens the Bengals have won 2 straight, although not in
dominating fashion and against the Browns and Redskins. Dalton and AJ Green are a great tandem and
the Bengals have a lot of young talent on offense making plays early in the
season. The Jags pulled out their first
win last week and MJD is the heart and sole of this team with Gabbert too
inconsistent. The Bengals run defense is
31st in the league, so Jags should be able to move the ball effectively.
Line Movement: Steady Line with 84% of Public Betting Bengals; JAX is
Seeing the Sharp $ Action at Multiple Books
Bet Trends: Bengals are 9-3 ATS last 12 games following a win but
2-7-3 ATS last 12 overall and 0-7-2 ATS last 9 games vs. AFC opponents. Jaguars
are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS last 7 after accumulating 150 rushing
yards in the prior game. Favorite is
11-5-1 ATS last 17 meetings and Bengals just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 in
Jacksonville.
The Pick: Jags +3 @ 2 Units (Offered Only at Bovada)
Predicted Score: Bengals 21 / Jaguars
20
Game: Raiders +7 at Broncos, O/U 48.5, 4pm on
9-30
Analysis: The Broncos at home for a divisional
showdown and after losing 2 straight, although to the two best teams in the
NFL. The Broncos run game has some
injury concerns and Manning's lack of arm strength a concern, but the Raiders
secondary is extremely beat up missing 3 of its 4 starters so Manning should
have no problem picking them apart. The
Raiders hope lies in its D-Line that has all the talent in the world but has
not shown much of a pass rush to this point in the season. On the other side of the ball the Raiders are
without 2 of their 3 top WR's and could struggle to throw the ball in this one,
needing to establish McFadden early and often and likely resort to some
trickery. All of the trend statistics
point to the Raiders covering, but this is not a favorable matchup on the road
with much of the team injured.
Line Movement: 65% of Public Betting Broncos, Line Opened -6 and Moved
to -7 Over Time, Zero Smart $ Activity
Bet Trends: Raiders are 7-2 ATS last 9 after scoring 30+ points in
prior game and 10-4 ATS last 14 vs. AFC West teams, also 7-3 ATS last 10 road
games. Broncos are 3-7 ATS last 10 games
following a loss, 2-7 ATS last 9 overall, and 3-10 ATS last 13 after allowing
150 yards rushing in prior game. Raiders
are 6-0 ATS last 6 games in Denver, Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5, and Road team
is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings.
The Pick: Denver -6.5 ( No Play at Current 7 Line) @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Denver 34 / Oakland 20
Game: Dolphins +5.5 at Cardinals, O/U 39, 4pm
on 9-30
Analysis:
The Dolphins lost last week due to a Kicker, a tough one to swallow and
actually playing some good football, but may be without Bush this week. The Cardinals are 3-0 and playing great
defense, somehow ranked 29th in passing and 26th in rushing offense and still
undefeated. Arizona is a good team at
home and Kolb starting to develop chemistry with Fitzgerald and the Dolphins
secondary is not very good. Ryan
Williams is also coming along in the running game and expect the Cards to win
this one and make a tough day for the Dolphins rookie QB.
Line Movement: Opened -7 and Moving Down to -5.5; 77% of Public
Betting Cardinals with Very Little Sharp $ Action on Either Side
Bet Trends: Dolphins are 7-0 ATS vs. winning record teams, 6-1 ATS
following a loss, and 10-3 ATS last 13 overall.
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home and 7-3 ATS following a win.
The Pick: Cardinals
-5.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Cardinals 27 /
Dolphins 13
Game: Redskins +1.5 at Buccaneers, O/U 47.5,
4:25pm on 9-30
Analysis:
The Skins have dropped two straight and are back on the road this week
with the defense really struggling to stop anyone with a few key injuries. Offensively RG3 is coming back to Earth
quickly and missing his top threat in Garcon while a few of the RB's are banged
up. The Bucs could easily be 3-0 and the
new coach has changed the atmosphere with that team. Freeman has a new weapon in Jackson and the D
held the Cowboys to 16 points last weekend despite bade field position.
Line Movement: Opened at -3 and Redskin Public $ Pushed Down with 65%
Betting Skins
Bet Trends: Redskins are 2-9 ATS last 11 games on grass and 2-6 ATS
last 8 following an ATS loss. Bucs are 4-9
ATS last 13 overall and 7-21 ATS last 28 home games. Underdog is 3-1-2 ATS last 6 meetings between
these teams.
The Pick: Bucs -1.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Bucs 20 / Skins 17
Game: Saints +7.5 at Packers, O/U 53, 4:25pm
on 9-30
Analysis: The Packers return home and
looking for some revenge after being robbed last weekend. The Saints are looking to avoid an 0-4 start
and thus far are 0-3 versus some of the NFL's lowest ranked teams. The Saints cannot stop anyone defensively so
Rodgers is going to have a big day and the Packers D is opportunistic enough to
run away with this one.
Line Movement: Steady but Ranging from 7 to 9 Across Books; 53% of
Public Bets Packers
Bet Trends: Saints are 17-8 ATS last 25 after a loss but 0-4 ATS
last 4 overall. Packers are 6-0 ATS after
a loss, 18-7-1 ATS last 26 at home and 23-11 ATS last 34 overall. The Over is 6-0 last 6 meetings and the
favorite is 4-0 ATS, also home team is 4-1 ATS last 5.
The Pick: Packers -7.5 @ 4 Units
Predicted Score: Packers 34 / Saints 24
Game: Giants +2 at Eagles, O/U 47.5, 8:20pm
on 9-30
Analysis: The Giants were dominant last week
and had extra time to prepare for this game, but likely missing Nicks
again. The Eagles have looked terrible
this season and unable to protect Vick against teams with less fierce pass
rushed than the Giants, so that is likely to play a major role in this
game. The Eagles secondary has struggled
in coverage as well and Eli Manning is lights out right now. The Giants are clearly the better team and
will look to make a statement in this game with constant pressure on Vick, and
win the turnover battle.
Line Movement: Steady but -1 to -2.5 Range at Books; 76% of Public
Bets Road Giants; Majority of Sharp $ on Eagles at -1
Bet Trends: Giants are 6-1 ATS last 7 following a win and 7-2 ATS
last 9 overall, also 36-15 ATS last 51 on the road. Eagles are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC East teams,
but 3-9 ATS last 12 at home. Road Team
is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings and Underdog is 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings, while
Giants are 1-7 ATS last 8 meetings.
The Pick: Giants +2 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Giants 30 / Eagles 24
Game: Bears +3.5 at Cowboys, O/U 41.5, 8:30am
on 10-1
Analysis: The Cowboys have been hot and cold
this season, the story of Romo's career.
They opened the season with a win at the Giants, and then lost badly to
Seattle and looked inept against the Bucs.
The Bears are 2-1 but wins versus the Colts and Rams hardly qualify as
quality wins, and were dismantled by the Packers. Chicago's D matches up well and as long as
Cutler does not make mistakes to ruin field position the Bears have an advantage. Cutler is sure to see a lot of pressure from
the NFL's top pass rusher in Ware with struggling left tackler J'Marcus
Webb.
Line Movement: Steady with Public 50/50 Split
Bet Trends: Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 MNF games and 5-2 ATS
following a win. Cowboys are 2-9 ATS
last 11 vs. the NFC and 1-6 ATS last 7 on MNF.
The Pick: Bears +3.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Bears 23 / Dallas 17
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