Game: Georgia -2 at Missouri, O/U 54.5, 7:45pm
9-8-12
Analysis: Georgia is coming off a 45-23 win
vs. Buffalo while Missouri outscored Southeastern Louisiana 62-10 last week but
an unimpressive game in terms of yardage with punt return and defensive scores
accounting for a lot of the points..
Georgia's Freshman RB Gurley racked up 200 yards last week and Murray to
King was also on target, but did struggle defensively against the run. This will be a tough early road test for the Bulldogs
and will have to contain James Franklin and TJ Moe, but the Tigers did lose RB
Henry Josey for the season. Georgia had
one of the top defenses in the country last year and returns 9 of 11
starters. Missouri only returns 5
starters on offense and 5 on defense and may find out a little something about
the strength of the SEC this game, and with Franklin still a bit injured QB
protection may be an issue.
Line Movement:
Opened at -3.5, Pushed Down to 2 - 66% Public Betting Georgia
Bet Trends:
Georgia is 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 2-6 ATS last 8 games in September. Missouri is 4-1 ATS last 5 games in
September.
The Pick:
Georgia -2 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Georgia 31 / Missouri 17 (under 54.5)
Game: Miami +6.5 at Kansas State, O/U 56, 12pm
9-8-12
Analysis: These two teams met last season and
K. St. came away with the 28-24 win, and the Wildcats were a great team to bet
ATS all last season. Kansas St. was
unimpressive last week against Missouri State, while Miami's defense looked
vulnerable against Boston College allowing 440 yards passing and this week have
to deal with a dual threat QB in Klein. Kansas
State has a fully stocked offense of weapons and last year were involved in a
bunch of close games. Miami comes in
with a lot less experience and faces a tough road test, but a team strength is
its secondary which should slow down Klein to Lockett, but scoring points is
the likely issue for Miami.
Line Movement:
Moved from 6.5 to 7; Public Betting Miami 56% and 90%+ on the Over
Bet Trends:
Miami is 5-0 ATS last 5 road games and 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. the Big 12. Wildcats are 10-3 ATS last 13 overall but
just 9-21 ATS last 30 in non-conference games.
The Pick:
Kansas St -6.5 @1 Unit
Predicted Score: Kansas St. 38 / Miami 27 (Over 54.5)
Game: Wisconsin -7 at Oregon State, O/U 50
Analysis: Wisconsin beat Oregon St. last year
35-0, although that was with Russell Wilson leading the way and although Danny
O'Brien looked solid in his first start, Oregon St. does have an experiences
and talented secondary. Oregon St. is
surely going to struggle scoring against Wisconsin and this looks likely to be
a low scoring game. Oregon St's
offensive line is a glaring issue in this game and Badger's RB Montee Ball
should be able to get Wisconsin in the end zone a couple times, and likely all
it needs.
Line Movement:
Line Moving Towards Oregon St. from +8, Smart & Bet Oregon St. +7 on 9-5;
Public Betting 71% on Wisconsin
Bet Trends:
Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road while the Beavers are 2-5 ATS last 7 at
home. Oregon St. also 7-22-1 ATS last 30
September games.
The Pick:
Wisconsin -7 @ 2 Units (Shop Around for -6.5, Offered at Pinnacle)
Predicted Score: Wisconsin 24 / Oregon St. 13
Game: Auburn +3 at Miss. St., O/U 47, 12pm 9-8-12
Analysis: Auburn impressed we last weekend
against a more talented Clemson team but comes in 0-1 to face Miss. St who beat
Jackson St. 56-9. Auburn has won the
last 3 matchups by 7, 3, and 25. Auburn
is an experienced team returning 18 starters and will really be fighting to not
start the year 0-2. Miss. St has major
problems on the O-Line, but luckily relies heavily on a Defense that can
generate a lot of pressure on the QB, and would expect a low scoring affair.
Line Movement:
Ranging in 3 to 3.5 Zone; Public Favors Auburn with 55%
Bet Trends:
Auburn is 1-4 ATS last 5 games but Miss. St 2-8 ATS last 10 against Auburn. Auburn is 10-3 ATS following an ATS
loss. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS last 6 at
home and 6-2 ATS last 8 overall.
The Pick:
Auburn +3 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Auburn 20 / Miss. St 17 (Under 47)
Game: Nebraska -5.5 at UCLA, O/U 62; 7:30pm 9-8-12
Analysis: This is a real interesting matchup
and UCLA looked good to start the Jim Mora era last week. Taylor Martinez leads the way for Nebraska
but Rex Burkhead is questionable with a knee injury. Nebraska's D is vulnerable to the run, as was
seen last week, and UCLA has Jonathan Franklin to exploit that weakness. If UCLA can avoid penalties this game could
be an upset in the making.
Line Movement:
Moved from -4 to -5.5 and Smart Money Bets Seen on UCLA at 5.5; Public Betting
Nebraska 67%
Bet Trends:
UCLA is 6-12 ATS last 18 overall.
Nebraska is 4-9 ATS last 13 games following a win.
The Pick:
UCLA +5.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: UCLA 38 / Nebraska 35 (Over 62)
Game: Vanderbilt -3.5 at Northwestern, O/U 54.5,
8pm 9-8-12
Analysis: Vanderbilt is coming off a
disappointing loss to South Carolina but did look good, while Northwestern beat
Syracuse in a thriller but was torched through the air. Zac Stacy is the key to Vandy but faces a
stout D-Line, while Northwestern is stacked at WR and should spread out Vandy.
Line Movement:
3 to 3.5 Range; 51% of Public with Vanderbilt; Northwestern Seeing Heavy Smart
$ Flow at +3
Bet Trends:
Vandy is 7-2 ATS last 9 overall but just 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road. Northwestern is 8-20 ATS last 28 Home
games.
The Pick:
Northwestern +3 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Vandy 27 / Northwestern 24
Game: Oklahoma State -10 at Arizona, O/U 70, 10:30pm
9-8-12
Analysis: The Cowboys won 37-14 last year in
this matchup with the line at -14 and coming off a cupcake game with an 84-0
win last week. Arizona was able to
escape with a 24-17 win against Toledo. Oklahoma
State has a Freshman QB, always a concern in an early season road game, and
will look to let Randle carry the load at RB.
Arizona turned the ball over 3 times last week and OK St. led the NCAA
in takeaways last year. Oklahoma St. has
one of the best kickers in the country also.
Arizona has holes in its secondary, but Rich Rodriguez should have his
players ready for this test, and likely why the line has been coming down with
his new schemes in place.
Line Movement:
Line as High as -14 Pushed Down to -10; 76% Public with OK St; Big $ Betting
Arizona and Moving Spread; Scattered T-Storms Expected
Bet Trends:
Oklahoma St. is 20-7-1 last 28 ATS on the road.
Wildcats are 3-9 ATS last 12 vs. winning teams and 1-5 ATS last 6 at
home.
The Pick:
Oklahoma St. -10 @ 1 Unit - See Value at -10 Despite Smart $ on Arizona
Predicted Score: Oklahoma St. 45 / Arizona 27 (Over 70)
Game: Illinois +4 at Arizona St, O/U 48.5, 10:30pm
9-8-12
Analysis: These two teams met last year and
Illinois won 17-14. Illinois beat
Western Michigan 24-7 to start the season and ASU toppled Northern Arizona
63-6. Scheelhaase at QB for Illinois is
a veteran and the Ilini return 7 defensive starters from the 7th best D in the
nation last year. ASU only returns 4
offensive and 4 defensive starters.
Scheelhaase is uncertain for the game with an ankle injury and a big
reason for the line movement.
Line Movement:
Line Moved from 0 on 9/3 to -4; Public 67% Arizona St.; Smart Money Looks to
See Value in Illinois at +3 and Higher
Bet Trends:
The Illini are 10-4 ATS last 14 on the road but 7-15 ATS last 22 non-conference
games. Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS vs. the
Big 10, but just 1-5 ATS last 6 overall.
The Pick:
Illinois +4 @ 1 Unit - Depends on QB Situation, but Defense is Strong to Keep
Close
Predicted Score: Arizona St. 24 / Illinois 21 (Under
48.5)
Game: Florida -1 at Texas A&M, O/U 50, 3:30pm
9-8-12
Analysis: Florida did not look all too sharp
last week with a 27-14 victory against Bowling Green, while this will be
A&M's first game after last week's was postponed. A big debut in the SEC for Texas A&M and
both teams starting young inexperienced QB's.
Mike Gillislee is the focal point for the Gators offense and defensively
they are stacked in the secondary with talent.
UF has one of the better defenses in the SEC and A&M has an
inexperienced QB, while on the other side of the ball A&M has holes
defensively and are running a new scheme this season.
Line Movement:
Line Moving towards Florida, Started -2.5 A&M and Now -1 Florida w/ Steam; Public
Bets Texas A&M 55%;
Bet Trends: Florida is 1-9 ATS last 10 games overall and 1-4
ATS last 5 road games. Aggies are 3-9
ATS last 12 overall and 1-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Pick:
Florida -1 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Florida 23 / Texas A&M 17 (Under
50)
Game: South Florida Pick-Em at Nevada, O/U 56,
3:35pm 9-8-12
Analysis: Nevada is coming off a 31-24 win at
Cal and Jefferson ran for 145 yards and 3 TD's. USF is a team built on speed and has 7
returning starters on offense and defense with Linebackers being the team's
strength, while QB BJ Daniels is a dual threat.
Nevada lacks experience in its front 7 and South Florida has a long
history of beating out of conference teams outside the state of Florida.
Line Movement:
Range from Pick to Nevada -2.5; Public Betting Nevada 58%
Bet Trends:
South Florida is just 4-11 ATS last 15 games following a win and 0-4 ATS last 4
overall. The Wolf Pack are 3-8-1 ATS
last 12 non conference games.
The Pick:
South Florida @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: South Florida 23 / Nevada 21 (Under 56)
Game: Rice +10 at Kansas, O/U 61.5, 3:30pm 9-8-12
Analysis: Rice was hammered 49-24 by UCLA last
week and Kansas won 31-17 versus South Dakota St. This game will feature a Kansas running
attack against a Rice team that player terrible on defense last week, but is
also likely to put up points on Kansas.
Line Movement:
Range of -9 to -10.5; 71% of Public Bets Kansas
Bet Trends:
Owls are 8-22 ATS last 30 non conference games and 2-9 ATS last 11 on the
road. Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS versus teams
with losing records and 13-5 ATS last 18 non conference games.
The Pick:
Rice +10 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Kansas 45 / Rice 38 (Over 61.5)
Game: UNC -10.5 at Wake Forest, O/U 54.5, 3pm
9-8-12
Analysis: Wake Forest topped Liberty 20-17
last week and UNC trampled Elon 62-0. UNC
has a new coach in Fedora and an offense that is a complete unit with 1,000
yard rusher Bernard and Bryn Renner at QB.
Wake Forest returns just 4 starters on offense with the O-Line very
inexperienced.
Line Movement:
Wake +7.5 on 9/30 Moved to +10.5 on 9/6; 63% of Public Bet UNC;
Bet Trends:
Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a win. Demon Deacons are 3-7 ATS last 10 against
winning record teams.
The Pick:
UNC -10.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: UNC 27 / Wake Forest 13 (Under 54.5)
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