Thursday Night NFL and College Previews/Picks

Game: Browns +12 at Ravens, O/U 43.5, 8:20pm on 9-27

Analysis: A tough game to analyze with the Ravens coming off a very emotional win and could have a bit of a let-down against the lowly Browns on a short-week in a game with a wide spread.  The Browns simply are not good enough offensively to content with no WR's, a sub-par rookie QB, and a RB in Richardson that was very over-rated out of college.  The Brown's D has some talent and has been able to keep them in games, but field position has been a killer with the team second to last in the league for first downs and so has the suspension of Joe Haden.  The Ravens offense is playing better than the defense for the first time in years and Flacco should have a big game with all of his weapons and Ray Rice as good as they come at RB.  Coach Harbaugh should be able to avoid the emotional let-down and have his team ready to run away with this one.  The Ravens do need to get a pass-rush going as it was non-existent the first half last week and they were picked apart. 

Line Movement: Opened -12 and some "Steam" Pushed to -13; 71% of Public Betting Ravens; Tuesday Smart $ Pushing It Back Down to -12

Bet Trends:  Browns are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 road games, and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games following a loss.  Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 AFC North games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Browns are 2-6 ATS last 8 games against the Ravens.  There are also strong statistical trends that the Under will be a winner.

The Pick: Ravens -12 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 30 / Browns 13 (6 Point Teaser for Ravens -6.5 and Under 49.5 a Way to Play)

Game: Stanford -6.5 at Washington, O/U 47.5, 9pm on 9-27

Analysis: Stanford is coming off a bye week after beating USC in an upset and going 3-0 on the season with the Defense playing really well.  The Huskies are also coming off a bye week and although talented were beaten 41-3 by LSU in the only game versus a competitive opponent.  The Huskies allowed LSU more than 240 rushing yards which is a strength of Stanford's offense, and the O-Line has allowed 8 sacks.  The Huskies are still a bit of a mystery at this point in the season and QB Price is solid while Kasen Williams is one of the top WR's in the country, but Stanford recently shut down Barkley and Woods/Lee.  Stanford's front 7 is one of the best in the country and against a struggling O-Line it could be a long night for the Huskies.

Line Movement: Steady at -6.5 to -7 with 65% of Public Betting Stanford but Wise-Guys Taking Washington at +7

Bet Trends:  Stanford is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 conference games and 12-3-1 ATS last 16 road games.  Stanford is also 5-2 ATS last 7 following a road game.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS last 5 following a bye week and 6-2 ATS last 8 home games.  Huskies are 0-5 ATS last 5 games when facing a team with a winning record.  Stanford is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings with Washington and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS, while the Under is 6-2 in the last 8.

The Pick:  Stanford -6.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Stanford 31 / Washington 20