Thursday/Friday College Football Game Analysis - Bets

Game: Pitt +6 at Cincinnati, O/U 48.5, 8pm 9-6-12

Analysis:  Pitt is coming off an embarrassing loss to Youngstown St. and heads to Cincinnati for a key Big East game.  However, Pitt will get back 6 suspended players for this game and the Bearcats are playing their first game, and missing last year's starting QB and RB.  Pitt has one of the better RB's in the NCAA with Graham and will focus on the run.  Cincinnati has won 3 of the last 4 meetings.  Pitt is stout at D-Tackle and in the secondary and the Bearcats likely struggle to move the ball in this one, and should be a low scoring grind it out game.

Line Movement: Line has Moved from +3 to +4 to +6, 77% of Public Betting Cincinnati

Bet Trends:  Pitt is 20-7 ATS last 27 in conference games and 16-5 ATS following a loss.  Bearcats are 5-12 ATS last 17 in conference games and Pitt is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings between these two teams. 

The Pick:  Pitt +6 @ 2 Units - Fading the Public and Look for Pitt to Bounce Back with ATS Trends in Its Favor

Predicted Score: Pitt 20 / Cincinnati 17 (Under 48.5)

Game: Utah -7.5 at Utah State, O/U 52.5, 8pm 9-7-12

Analysis:  Utah coming off a 41-0 shutout of Northern Colorado has an in-state rivalry with Utah St. who beat Southern Utah 34-3 last week.  Utah has a top RB with White and the question with the team is if Wynn can live up to his talent.  Utah defensively has a strong secondary and one of the best D-Line's in the Pac-12.  Utah State comes in with a fast, exciting offensive unit led by Chuckie Keeton at QB and Matt Austin at WR.  The Aggies should be able to score, but likely struggle to stop White from running up 150+ yards.  Utah has won each of the last 4 matchups with 16 points the closest finish.
 

Line Movement: Consistent in 7.5/8 Range - 72% Public Betting Utah -7.5

Bet Trends:  The Utes are 2-5 ATS vs. WAC opponents and 2-9 ATS in games following a win.  The Aggies are 10-3 ATS last 13 non-conference games, but just 1-7 ATS last 8 following a win. 

The Pick:  Utah -7.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Utah 31 / Utah St. 20 (Under 52.5)