Game: TCU (#15) -21 at Kansas, O/U 59.5, 12pm
9-15-12
Analysis: TCU is coming off a
56-0 win versus Grambling State while Kansas lost a heartbreaker to Rice
25-24. TCU is making its Big 12 debut so
facing a bit better competition although Kansas near the bottom of the pack in
the Big 12. Kansas' secondary has
struggled in its first two games and TCU's QB Casey Pachall is very good. The Jayhawks have forced 8 turnovers in its
first two games so potential to make some plays and keep this close. Tony Pierson has been excellent at RB for
Kansas to start the season with 6.3 yards per carry and TCU's defense only
returns 5 starters.
Line Movement: Steady with Smart $ on Kansas at +21; 81% Public on TCU
Bet Trends: Kansas s 4-8 ATS last 12
overall. TCU is 1-7 ATS last 8 following
a ATS win.
The Pick: Kansas +21 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: TCU 41 / Kansas 24
(Over 59.5)
Game: Wake Forest +28 at Florida State (#6), O/U
54, 12pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Wake Forest comes in a major underdog
but pulled off a nice win over UNC last week and QB Tanner Price looks
good. FSU has an aggressive defense that
will look to capitalize off turnovers.
FSU has dominated its first two games, but against inferior opponents of
Murray St and Savannah St. and may be looking ahead to the big game with
Clemson the following week and not see their best effort. Wake Forest has a deep secondary and should
be able to slow down FSU, but the big concern is how will Wake Forest score
points with 4 new starters on the O-Line against a dominant FSU defense.
Line Movement: On 9/10 at -24 and pushing higher to -28 w/ Public 54%
on FSU and No Signs of Smart $
Bet Trends: Wake Forest is 6-13-1 ATS last 20
road games and 4-12 straight up vs. FSU last 16. FSU is 2-6 ATS when playing Wake Forest. Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS last 7 games overall,
while FSU is 7-19-1 ATS last 27 games after a win of 20+.
The Pick: Wake Forest +28 @ 1 Unit - Demon Deacons have actually
beaten FSU 4 of the last 6
Predicted Score: FSU 34 / Wake Forest 17 (Under 54)
Game: UNC +3 at Louisville (#20), O/U 56,
3:30pm 9-15-12
Analysis: UNC is coming off a loss to Wake Forest
on the road and heads to Louisville to face a team that has beaten Kentucky and
Missouri State to start 2-0. The
Cardinals QB is an impressive 49/60 for 576 yards in the first two games. UNC may get back RB Giovani Bernard for this
game which would be a big lift. The
Cardinals return all 4 starters in its secondary and should be able to keep UNC
contained.
Line Movement: -4.5 on 9/10 Moving Down to -3 with 71% Public on
Louisville
Bet Trends: UNC is 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road
and Louisville is 5-12 the last 17 at home.
Louisville is 12-2 ATS last 14 vs. ACC opponents and 8-3 ATS last 11
overall.
The Pick: Louisville - 3 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Louisville 27 / UNC 20
(Under 56)
Game: Virginia +10 at Georgia Tech, O/U 53,
3:30pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Virginia heads to Georgia Tech as a 10
point underdog on the road despite a 2-0 start with a 1 point win last week
against Penn State. G-Tech lost its
first game of the year against V-Tech but looked impressive. Virginia's strength on defense is its
linebackers which is good against an option team like G-Tech, while offensively
the Cavaliers have plenty of playmakers.
Tevin Washington is the key to the Yellow Jackets as a dual threat and
the offensive line is experiences and strong.
Line Movement: Fluctuating from -9.5 to -10.5 with 62% of Public on
Georgia Tech
Bet Trends: Virginia is 4-1 ATS last 5
conference games. Georgia Tech is 3-7-1
ATS last 11 overall and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Georgia Tech is 3-6 ATS last 9 vs. Virginia.
The Pick: Virginia +10 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 30 / Virginia 21 (Under 53)
Game: Alabama (#1) -20 at Arkansas (#21), O/U
53.5, 3:30pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Arkansas coming off an embarrassing
loss last week against Louisiana-Monroe and QB Tyler Wilson doubtful for this
game. Alabama kicked off the year with a
dominating 41-14 win vs. Michigan.
McCarron is a solid QB and Yeldon at RB is as impressive as any I've
seen, while Alabama's defense always shows up to play. Arkansas is also without its starting CB in
what is already a weak secondary.
Line Movement: Range of 19 to 21.5 with 75% of Public on Alabama; Smart
Money at Multiple Books Played Arkansas +21
Bet Trends: Alabama is 5-1 ATS last 6 road
games and 11-5 ATS last 16 overall.
Razorbacks are 20-6 ATS last 26 at home and 14-5 ATS last 19 conference
games.
The Pick: Alabama -20 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Alabama 37 / Arkansas 13 (Under 53.5)
Game: Florida (#17) +3 at Tennessee (#23), O/U 47.5,
6pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Tennessee faces its toughest test of
the year and has an exciting offense to watch with Bray at QB and a couple NFL
ready WR's. Florida is also 2-0 and
defeated a good Texas A&M team last week but still looked shaky on
offense. Florida has Gillislee who has
looked great running the ball, and definitely has the superior defense in this
game and are yet to allow a passing TD this year.
Line Movement: On 9/10 line was -2 and moved as high as -3.5; 63% of
Public Betting Tennessee
Bet Trends: Gators are 2-9 ATS last 11 games overall and
1-6 ATS last 7 conference games.
Volunteers are 3-7 ATS last 10 overall and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 conference
games. Florida is 2-2-2 ATS last 6 vs.
Tenn.
The Pick: Florida +3 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Florida 23 / Tenn. 20
(Under 47.5)
Game: Arizona St. +6 at Missouri, O/U 63, 7pm
on 9-15-12
Analysis: Missouri was welcomed to the SEC last
week with a 41-20 defeat at the hands of Georgia. ASU has opened the season 2-0 with a blowout
last week of Illinois 45-14, although the team was without its QB. ASU's WR/TE Coyle caught 10 balls for 130
yards last week. This game sets up to be
a shootout.
Line Movement: On 9/10 Opened -7.5 and Down to -6 with Public Betting Missouri 58%; Only Smart $
Play was on the Under
Bet Trends: Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS last 7
overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 on the road.
Missouri is 22-5 ATS last 27 after giving up 40 points or more in the
prior game.
The Pick: Arizona St +6 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Missouri 34 / Arizona
St 31 (Over 63)
Game: USC (#3) -8 at Stanford (#16), O/U 57,
7:30pm 9-15-12
Analysis: One of the best games on the schedule
this weekend and Stanford has opened 2-0 without Andrew Luck with wins against
San Jose St. and Duke with Taylor leading the ground game. USC looked unimpressive last week as heavy
favorites against Syracuse but with Barkley, Redd, Woods and Lee one of the
most talented offenses in the country.
Stanford's secondary is definitely going to struggle in this one. A concern for USC is they may be without
starting Center.
Line Movement: Range of 10 (Open) to 7.5; 81% of Public Betting USC
(Squares) with Stanford drawing Smart $ bets at multiple books including
Heritage
Bet Trends: Trojans are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs.
teams with winning records.
Stanford is 8-2 ATS last vs.
teams with winning records, and 21-8 ATS last 29 home games. USC is 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Stanford.
The Pick: Stanford +8 @ 2 Units - System Play (Smart $)
Predicted Score: USC 41 / Stanford 35
(Over 57)
Game: Utah St. +14 at Wisconsin (#22), O/U
51, 8pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Wisconsin has looked dreadful this year
barely beating Northern Iowa and losing to Oregon St, struggling to move the
ball. If they get back to the ground
attack with Ball they should be able to find their identity. Utah St. has started 2-0 and coming off a big
win against rival Utah and Keeton has looked spectacular at QB.
Line Movement: Range of -13 to -14; Public Betting 65% Wisconsin with
1 Smart $ Play on Utah St at +14
Bet Trends: The Aggies are 1-4 ATS last 5 road
games and 3-10 ATS last 13 after an ATS win.
Badgers are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home but 1-5 ATS last 6 against teams
with winning records.
The Pick: Utah St +14 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Wisconsin 27 / Utah St. 20 (Under 51)
Game: Notre Dame (#19) +6 at Michigan St. (#10), O/U
44; 8pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Notre Dame is 2-0 with a 50-10 win vs.
Navy and 20-17 vs. Purdue on go on the road for its first real test. Michigan St. opened the season with a big win
vs. Boise St. in a game where I felt the QB is a worrisome spot, but RB Bell is
as good as any in college. Mich. St also
has one of the nation's best Defenses against a Notre Dame team shaky at
QB. Maxwell's poor decision making
concerns me for the Spartans and should keep the game close.
Line Movement: Opened -3.5 on 9/10 and rose as high as -6 with Public
71% on Michigan St, so Notre Dame offers some value if it goes to +7
Bet Trends: Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS last 7 road
games and 3-10 ATS last 13 games in September.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 5-2 ATS last 7 at home. Notre Dame is 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games vs.
Michigan St, but Mich. St is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 home games vs. Notre Dame.
The Pick: Notre Dame +6 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 16 / Mich. St 13
Game: Texas (#12) -10 at Mississippi, O/U 51,
9:15pm 9-15-12
Analysis: Texas comes in 2-0 after a win vs.
Wyoming and New Mexico and faces an Ole Miss team that is also 2-0 and beat
UTEP last week. Ole Miss' QB Bo Wallace
leads the team not only in passing, but also in rushing and Texas has a
talented front 7. Texas' QB David Ash is
off to a strong start, but against inferior competition. Ole Miss definitely has the offensive talent
to stick with Texas.
Line Movement: Opened Closer to -12 and Low at -9.5; 68% of Public
Betting Texas; Mississippi is Attracting A Lot of Smart $ Bets at Multiple
Books
Bet Trends: Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in last 16
games following a win and 7-15 ATS last 22 vs. teams with a winning
record. The Rebels are 13-3 ATS last 16
non-conf. games but 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. teams with
winning records, and 4-8 ATS last 12 at home.
The Pick: Ole Miss +10 at 3 Units - Potential Upset in the
Making as Well
Predicted Score: Texas 27 / Ole Miss 21
(Under 51)
Game: Houston +17 at UCLA (#23), O/U 75.5,
10:30pm 9-15-12
Analysis: UCLA is off to a strong start after
beating Nebraska last week and I really like the RB Franklin, and Hundley has
looked solid at QB. Houston comes in
winless with losses to Texas St. and Louisiana Tech, so this non-conf. game
could get ugly for a team no longer having Case Keenum at the helm.
Line Movement: Range of 16.5 to 18 with Public 81% Betting UCLA; 1
Smart $ Bet on UCLA at -17
Bet Trends: UCLA is 4-0 ATS last 4 at home but
2-8 ATS last 10 games following a win.
Cougars are 8-3 ATS last 11 overall but 3-7 ATS last 10 non-conference
games.
The Pick: UCLA -17 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: UCLA 48 / Houston 30 (Over 75.5)
Bonus Games:
Contrarian Play: SMU +13.5 vs. Texas A&M
@ 1 Unit (Smart $ on SMU in Size)
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