Week 8 Thursday Night NFL Preview and Pick

Game: Chiefs +8.5 at Chargers, O/U 42.5, 8:20pm on 11-1

Analysis: The Chiefs may be the worst team in the NFL with no QB, a lousy coach, and a lack of playmakers.  They lost by 17 to San Diego at home in September and have not exactly made progress, but in a short week may benefit from sticking to the basics, running the ball, rushing the passer, and tackling, each of which I would argue they have the advantage against the Chargers, who are also terrible with a lousy coach.  San Diego was held to 6 points by the Browns last week and you can't just blame the weather, now losing 4 of 5 and looking to spiral to the point where Norv Turner is finally fired.  If the Chiefs keep things simple they can easily escape with a win, so I like them to at least cover.

Line Movement: Opened -8.5 and 65% of Public Bets San Diego with Small Sharp $ on KC

Bet Trends: Chiefs are 5-2 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. the AFC.  Chargers are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, but 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. AFC teams. 

The Pick: Chiefs +8.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Chargers 23 / Chiefs 17

College Football Week 10 Picks

Game: Texas A&M -6.5/7 at Miss. St, O/U 59, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis:  The Aggies are 6-2 and 3rd in the country averaging 45.5 points per game with the Johnny Manziel show.  Mississippi St. is at home with a 7-1 record and coming off its first loss, 38-7 to Alabama, just overmatched.  The Bulldogs lack quality wins so it is right to question if they are for real, but Russell has shown he is an up and coming QB.  A&M has been prone to turnovers this season and the Bulldogs are 6th in the Nation with a +13 turnover margin. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Jumped Quickly to 6; 54% Public Bets A&M

Bet Trends: Aggies are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games and 2-7 ATS last 9 following a win.  Aggies are 1-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.  Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 at home and 10-3 ATS last 13 on grass.

The Pick: Miss. St +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Miss. St. 30 / Texas A&M 27

Game: Oklahoma -11 at Iowa St, O/U 52.5, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oklahoma will look to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Notre Dame last weekend with consistency being a problem this season.  Iowa St. will be looking for an upset and plays well at home in big games, nearly knocking off Kansas St. earlier this season.  The defense should be able to contain Landry Jones' offense, but Iowa St. may struggle to score.  Iowa St. will also be without Jake Knott on Defense, a leading tackler which is a major loss.

Line Movement: Steady; 65% Public Bets Sooners

Bet Trends: Sooners are 10-1 ATS last 11 after scoring < 20 points and 21-7 ATS last 28 following a loss.  Cyclones are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 Big 12 games.  Sooners are 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Oklahoma -11 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 34 / Iowa St. 17

Game: Tulsa +7.5 at Arkansas, O/U 64, 12:20pm on 11-3

Analysis: Arkansas has started to bounce back from a disappointing season, but lost last week to Ole Miss.  The Hogs have plenty of talent on offense with Wilson and Johnson, but have struggled stopping high scoring offenses.  Tulsa comes in from the Conf. USA with a 7-1 record and averaging nearly 250 yards/game rushing.  They have not played anyone of Arkansas' caliber, but opened the season with a 15 point loss to Iowa St.  Tulsa leads the nation in sacks with 35 and  could force some turnovers to keep this one close, but does rank 95th against the pass, so NFL prospect Wilson should be in for a good day if he finds time.  Tulsa has all the momentum coming in to try and steal a huge upset win, and if there was any year to pull it off versus Arkansas it would be this year. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and "Steam to -7.5"; 72% Public Bets Arkansas

Bet Trends: Tulsa is 11-4 ATS last 15 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 non-conf. games.  Arkansas is 21-7 ATS last 28 at home but 2-5 ATS last 7 overall. 

The Pick: Tulsa +7.5 @ 1 Unit (Money-Line Worth a Shot)

Predicted Score: Tulsa 34 / Arkansas 38

Game: TCU +6.5 at West Virginia, O/U 68, 3pm on 11-3

Analysis: TCU is 5-3 and yet to have a quality win, and although Boykin has filled in at QB admirably, the team only put up 14 on the Oklahoma St. weak defense last week.  West Virginia has dropped two straight and has been blown out, over-matched by Big 12 teams with solid defenses, but is coming off a bye.  WVU still has plenty of weapons, but Geno Smith has struggled when facing a D ranked in the top 80. 

Line Movement: Opened -7, Not Much Movement; 63% Public Bets TCU

Bet Trends: Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS last 9 after a loss but 1-5 ATS last 6 Big 12 games.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs. teams with winning road records.

The Pick: West Virginia -6.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: West Virginia 48 / TCU 37

Game: Ole Miss +14 at Georgia, O/U 63, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Ole Miss is a solid 5-3 team that hung in there against both Alabama and Texas A&M in losses and a very talented offense with Wallace, Scott, and Moncrief.  Georgia is coming off of a huge win vs. Florida and stands 7-1 with a team full of NFL prospects.  Jarvis Jones on D for the Bulldogs is a game-changer.  Georgia has not exactly pulled away from teams this year, so a cover is likely, but a Georgia win.

Line Movement: Opened -14 and Steady; 55% Public Bets Ole Miss

Bet Trends: Rebels are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall but 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. winning record teams.  Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS last 8 at home.  Road Team is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings and Ole Miss 2-5 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick: Ole Miss +14 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Georgia 23 / Ole Miss 13

Game: Pitt +16.5 at Notre Dame, O/U 46, 3:30pm on 11-3; 52% Public Bet Notre Dame

Analysis: Pitt has won 4 of 6 and is a different team than when it opened the season, but will face its toughest test this weekend.  The Fighting Irish are 8-0 and have beaten 4 ranked teams, and winning close games with its Defense.  Notre Dame has to be careful not to let off the gas now that it enters the weaker part of its schedule because Pitt can play.  Pitt has enough offensive weapons to spread the ball around and play a low scoring, grind it out game, which favors a cover in a spread this wide.

Line Movement: Opened -17.5, Fairly Steady

Bet Trends: Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 overall and 3-1-1 ATS last 5 road games, and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs. winning record teams.  Fighting Irish are 4-10 ATS last 14 after allowing 280+ passing yards and 2-5 ATS last 7 after an ATS win.  Road Team is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 meetings and Underdog is 6-0-1 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Pitt +17 @ 2 Units (Bovada)

Predicted Score: Pitt 13 / Notre Dame 24

Game: Nebraska -1.5 at Michigan St, O/U 44.5, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Nebraska is 6-2 and has won 5 of its last 6 with the one loss at Ohio St.  Michigan St. has dropped 3 of 5 and ranks 11th in scoring offense but 10th on defense.  Nebraska has struggled on the road this season, and the Spartans are coming off a big upset against Wisconsin.  I have little faith in Maxwell at QB for Mich. St and a bit more in Martinez for Nebraska, and the Corn Huskers kicker had a huge game last week and that likely comes back into play this weekend.

Line Movement: Opened as a Pick-Em with Nebraska clearly attracting some money; 66% Public Bets Nebraska

Bet Trends: Nebraska is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 Conf. games and 0-5-1 ATS last 6 road games.  Spartans are 5-1 ATS last 6 after an ATS win but 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and favorite is 4-0 ATS.

The Pick: Nebraska -1.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Nebraska 20 / Michigan St. 13

Game: Texas +7 at Texas Tech, O/U 67, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Texas has bounced back from losses vs. Oklahoma and West Virginia and beat Baylor by 6 and Kansas by 4, not all too impressive.  Texas has proven it cannot stop the pass and this week has to face a powerful passing offense ranked 3rd in the country at 357 yards/game.  The Red Raiders have wins vs. West Virginia and TCU and losses to Oklahoma and K. St.  The Defense is much improved and overall Tech has the advantage in this game. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and Jumped with 75% Public Bets on Texas Tech

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Red Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 after an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS last 8 overall.  Home Team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Texas Tech -7 @ 2 Units (Prefer < 7 for 4 Units)

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 45 / Texas 34

Game: Oregon -7.5 at USC, O/U 70, 7pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oregon as run away in every game this season, but really has yet to face a top tier team, and USC can be top tier in terms of talent, but needs to bring the effort to have a chance.  Oregon has let up in a lot of games after jumping out to big leads, but likely will keep the throttle on in this one to impress the polls.  USC lost on the road to Arizona and has struggled with opponents nowhere near Oregon's caliber, so this could turn into a blowout, although USC's D has played fairly well this season.

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 84% of Public Bets Oregon (Squares?) with some Sharp $ on USC at +7

Bet Trends: Ducks are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, and 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs. winning record teams.  Trojans are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home but just 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Favorite is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: Oregon -7.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon 38 / USC 27

Game: Alabama -9.5 at LSU, O/U 42, 8pm on 11-3

Analysis: Alabama has yet to allow more than 14 points in a game this season and is averaging 40.6 on offense, and faces a LSU team that has a very simple offense to stop, no passing game, just stop the run.  LSU does play D well and held an explosive Texas A&M offense to 19 points and Florida to 14, so the 9.5 point spread seems a bit large considering its likely to be a low scoring game.  However, LSU does not deserve to even be in the Top 10 and it will show this weekend when 'Bama comes in and dominates.

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 67% of Public Bets Alabama and Smart $ as Well

Bet Trends: Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS last 7 SEC games and 7-3 ATS last 10 overall.  Tigers are 1-4 ATS last 5 SEC games.  Road Team is 13-3-1 ATS last 17 meetings and Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS.

The Pick: Alabama -9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Alabama 23 / LSU 6

Game: Oklahoma St. +9.5 at Kansas St, O/U 66, 8pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oklahoma St. has ripped off 3 straight wins and it does not seem to matter who is playing QB, but has not beaten any quality opponents.  They will face the toughest defense year to date this week and are likely to struggle.  Wes Lunt will be back at QB and the Freshman may struggle in a hostile environment with turnovers, similar to how he opened the season.  K. St is on a roll with Heisman hopeful Klein at QB and looks set to run the table.  They play great opportunistic D and a balanced offensive attack. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 and Moved Up Quick to 9.5/10 with 83% of Public on Kansas St.

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games and 21-9 ATS last 30 overall.  Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 21-6-1 ATS in Big 12 games.  Cowboys are 2-6 ATS last 8 meetings but Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: K. St -9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 45 / Oklahoma St. 31

Game: Arizona +3.5 at UCLA, O/U 71, 9:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Arizona is coming off a big upset vs. USC but has struggled on the road this season at 0-2.  Scott is a playmaker at QB but also makes a lot of mistakes and the D let up 49 to Oregon quickly and 54 to Stanford.  UCLA is 6-2 and beat a good Arizona St team last week and Utah the week before.  Hundley and Franklin are getting the job done with a balanced attack, but the D has been an issue.  UCLA is 6th in sacks with 3.35 per game and in a likely shootout it will come down to turnovers and 3rd down stops, and UCLA has the advantage at home.

Line Movement: Opened at 1.5 and Jumped to 3.5 with 54% of Public Bets on Arizona, so Sharp $ Clearly on UCLA Early

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall but 3-7 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Bruins are 5-2 ATS last 7 at home but 4-10 ATS last 14 after a win.  Wildcats are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings with Home Team 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings.

The Pick: UCLA -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: UCLA 52 / Arizona 45

Game: San Diego St. +14 at Boise St, O/U 50.5, 10:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Aztecs come in at 6-3 with 4 straight wins and averaging 223 rushing yards per game, good for 18th nationally.  Boise St. is not the team it once was and struggles to score, but the D is only allowing 13.6 points per game, 5th in the country.  Aztecs are also without starting QB Katz, but mainly rely on the ground game. 

Line Movement: Opened -15 and Some Books as Low as 13.5 with 87% of Public on Boise St.

Bet Trends: Aztecs are 3-8 ATS last 11 after a win.  Broncos are 3-8 ATS last 11 home games. 

The Pick:  San Diego St +14 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: San Diego St. 13 / Boise St 24

Game: Arizona St. +4.5 at Oregon St., O/U 54.5, 10:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: The Sun Devils are 5-3 with 2 straight losses to Oregon and UCLA and head back on the road this week.  Oregon St. was unable to stay undefeated and suffered its first defeat last week to the Huskies, but even the wins have come in close games all season long.  Cody Vaz will start again at QB for the Beavers and has been efficient. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Steady with 69% of Public Bets on Oregon St.

Bet Trends: Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS last 6 after a loss.  Beavers are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 overall and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 vs. winning record teams.  Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Arizona St +4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oregon St. 27 / Arizona St. 24

Game: Syracuse +5 at Cincinnati, O/U 56, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis: Syracuse is 4-4 and has been in every game it's played this year, now on a 2 game win streak with the 16th ranked passing game in the country.  Cincy has dropped 2 straight after a 5-0 start and needs to take back control of the Big East, and has a great D and an exciting QB in Legaux, but is losing top pass rusher for the season. 

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 85% of Public on Cincy, so Sharps Clearly on Syracuse Pushing Line to -4

Bet Trends: Orange are 3-9-1 ATS last 13 overall and 2-8 ATS last 10 after a win, also just 1-7 ATS last 8 road games.  Bearcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 13-6-1 ATS last 20 after a loss.  Road Team is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Cincy -4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cincy 31 / Syracuse 24

College Football Week 9 Picks

Short version this week due to vacation and playing early week lines:

Cincy at Louisville	Louisville -3.5		2
Ole Miss at Arkansas	Ole Miss +5		2
USC ar Arizona	Arizona +7		1
Florida at Georgia	Georgia +7		1
TCU at Oklahoma St	TCU +8		3
Texas Tech at Kansas St	K-St. -7.5		3
Ohio St at Penn St	Penn St +1		2
Texas A&M at Auburn	Texas A&M -10		3
Baylor at Iowa St	Iowa St -2.5		1
Michigan at Nebraska	Michigan +2.5		1
Notre Dame at Oklahoma	Oklahoma +10.5		2
Miss. St at Alabama	Miss. St +24		2
Oregon St at Washington	Oregon St. -4.5		1

NFL Week 8 Picks

I will be out on vacation later this week, so making picks based on opening lines and may update during the week if I get a chance, but no full analysis this week:

Bucs +7.5 at Vikings @ 2 Units

Rams +7.5 vs. Pats @ 2 Units

Titans -3 vs. Colts @ 1 Unit

Jags at Packers - No Line

Chargers -2.5 at Browns @ 3 Units

Falcons +2.5 at Eagles @ 3 Units

Seahawks +3 at Lions @ 1 Unit

Jets -1.5 vs. Dolphins @ 1 Unit

Panthers +10 at Bears @ 2 Units

Redskins +5 at Steelers @ 2 Units

Raiders +2 at Chiefs @ 2 Units

Giants +1.5 at Cowboys @ 1 Unit

Saints +7.5 at Broncos @ 2 Units

49ers -6.5 at Cardinals @ 1 Unit

NFL Week 7 Preview and Picks

Game: Titans +3 at Bills, O/U 46.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The 2-4 Titans that rank last in the league in rushing and near the bottom at stopping teams is coming off a Thursday night win vs. Pittsburgh, some momentum.  The Bills are 3-3 and sit tied for first in the AFC East and went to Arizona and won last week.  Buffalo ranks 5th in rushing with Jackson/Spiller combo, but is allowing more rushing yards per game than any team.  Needless to say neither defense is very good in this game.  The Titans rank 31st in time of possession.  Fitzpatrick should finally put in a good game this week targeting Stevie Johnson and get the Bills over 0.500. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 68% of Public Bets Bills, Steady Line, No Sharp Action

Bet Trends: Titans are 2-7-1 ATS last 10 overall and 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games.  Bills are 4-9 ATS last 13 vs. the NFC and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 following an ATS win.  Titans are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. Buffalo and the underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Bills -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bills 31 / Titans 24

Game: Cardinals +6 at Vikings, O/U 40, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Cardinals are coming off a loss in Overtime and the 4-0 start is starting to fall apart now with QB Kolb injured and out and no real running game either, so teams can just focus on stopping Fitzgerald and this week they face a Vikings team that is very strong defensively.  The Vikings also lost last week but are 3-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 11 points.  Ponder is an impressive young QB and Harvin is a great playmaker, but some concern with AP's ankle into this game.  The Vikings special teams have been difference makers all year long too really helping field position.  Arizona's D may be able to keep it close but I do not see where they manufacture points.  Underdogs in the NFC have an incredible record of covering this year.

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Steamed to -7 with 60% of Public on Vikings and Smart $ Grabbed -5 and lower (Cardinal QB situation)

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs. NFC opponents, but 7-17 ATS last 24 games on turf.  Vikings are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 times these two teams met. 

The Pick:  Cardinals +7.5 @ 2 Units (Offered at 5Dimes)

Predicted Score: Vikings 20 / Cardinals 13

Game: Browns +3 at Colts, O/U 45, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Browns got their first win of the season against the Bengals last week forcing turnovers, but still just 1-5 and ranked near the bottom of the league on Defense.  The Colts followed up a dramatic win at home vs. the Packers with a terrible performance at the Jets.  Andrew Luck has the Colts 9th in the league in passing and the D is 3rd against the pass, but 29th against the run, although Richardson's health in question for the Browns.  The game ultimately comes down to the better QB play, and Luck at home as the major advantage despite the Browns impressive record of covering spreads.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Offered -1, -2, -3 at Different Books with 62% of Public on Colts Showing the Hands of some Sharp $ on Browns

Bet Trends: Browns are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road game and 7-2-1 ATS last 10 overall.  Colts are 2-8 ATS last 10 home games vs. teams with a losing road record and 3-13 ATS last 16 overall vs. teams with a losing record.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 meetings between these teams.

The Pick: Colts -2 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 27 / Browns 20

Game: Ravens +7.5 at Texans, O/U 48.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Ravens escaped with a victory last week to go 5-1 but not without a cost, losing Ray Lewis and Webb for the season to injury, and Nagata also hurt.  Baltimore has a balanced offense, but ranks in the bottom third in pass/run defense, and that before the injuries.  Houston was embarrassed in the national spotlight last week with its first loss of the season and the Ravens will look to exploit a very beatable defense.  Houston still ranks highly in most offensive and defensive categories, but really played an easy schedule to start the season and is over-rated.  The betting market looks to be over-reacting to the injuries as well.  Oher did a great job containing Ware last week and will try to  repeat that effort against Watt, but tougher task on the road.  The Texans lead the league in time of possession and the Ravens are 29th, so look for Houston to wear-down the Ravens injury-riddled D. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and Steamed to -6.5/7 with Raven Injuries and 61% of Public Bets Houston

Bet Trends: Ravens are 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. AFC opponents and 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Texans are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 vs. the AFC and 12-4-2 ATS last 17 overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS last 6 times these teams have met.

The Pick: Ravens +7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texans 27 / Ravens 23

Game: Packers -5 at Rams, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Packers bounced back last week to go to 3-3 with an impressive performance, scoring at will on a top D.  The Rams are coming off a loss but are 3-0 at home this season and excel at getting pressure on the QB, ranked 5th in pass D and may contain the Packers offense.  The Rams have issues on offense without WR Amendola, but expect a heavy dose of Jackson/Richardson to keep Rodgers off the field, and have a weapon in their kicker. 

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Fairly Steady with 85% of Public on Road Favored Packers (Squares?)

Bet Trends: Packers are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 following an ATS win.  Rams are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS last 7 overall.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS last 7 times these teams have met. 

The Pick: Rams +6 @ 2 Units (Bovada)

Predicted Score: Packers 27 / Rams 23

Game: Cowboys -2 at Panthers, O/U 45.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Cowboys lost a tough one last week and stand 2-3 without star RB Murray for this game.  The Dallas D has been great under Rob Ryan and ranks 2nd against the pass and 13th against the run.  Carolina is coming off a bye week after losing 3 straight and will try to turn things around this week.  Newton will look to bust out of his Sophomore slump, but Ware/Spencer will be hunting him down all day.  Dallas may also be without Dez Bryant on offense, but the Panthers are going to likely be without 2 key defensive players as well and lost starting center Kalil for the season as well.  This is the toughest game of the week to pick because we never know what Cowboy team will show up and the public is heavy on a road favorite against a team coming off a bye.

Line Movement: Opened -2 and Steady with 80% of Public Bets on Cowboys

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS last 29 vs. the NFC and 3-9 ATS last 12 overall.  Panthers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games at home, but 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. teams with losing records. 

The Pick:  Panthers +2 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cowboys 28 / Panthers 27

Game: Redskins +6 at Giants, O/U 50, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Skins moved to 3-3 last week with a wild performance by RG3 who keeps them in every game and rank 2nd in rushing in the league but 32nd on defense against the pass.  The Giants went to San Francisco and dominated last week and return home with the league's 5th best passing offense, but ranked 21 against the pass.  Eli has all his targets back and should have no issue dicing the Skins D.  The Giants have quickness on D and did a great job containing Cam Newton earlier this year, a similar style QB to RG3.  The Giants are 0-2 vs. the NFC East this year and have struggled at home all season.  The Redskins rank 30th in penalties and cannot make dumb mistakes in this one, and the other risk is RG3's health, who needs to not take big hits if the Skins are to have a chance. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 but Offered -7.5 at 5Dimes with 56% of Public Betting Giants but Line Came Down to 5.5 Early in Week with Sharp $ on Skins.  Public is now 51% on Skins with a late week shift.

Bet Trends: Redskins are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. NFC East opponents, but 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a win.  Giants are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 following a win and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs. NFC teams.  Skins are 2-5-1 ATS last 8 games against the Giants in NY.

The Pick: Giants -6 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Giants 34 / Skins 27

Game: Saints -3 at Bucs, O/U 50, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Saints are coming off a bye week and their first win of the season, but still stand 1-4 with the league's top ranked pass offense, but near last in rushing and both rushing/passing on D.  Tampa dominated last week but against the lowly Chiefs and although 3rd against the run they are 31st against the pass, exposed by Romo, Eli Manning, and RG3 this season.  Josh Freeman should have success in this game with Jackson and Williams on the outside making plays and turning into a strong tandem. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Offered -2, -1 at Some Books with 75% of Public on Saints (Squares) and Heavy Sharp $ Activity on the Bucs

Bet Trends: Saints are 8-1 ATS last 9 following a win and 9-3 ATS last 12 vs. the NFC.  Bucs are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 8-22 ATS last 30 at home.  The road team is 13-5 ATS last 18 meetings between these teams. 

The Pick: Bucs +3 @ 3 Units - System Play - Need to Force 3 Turnovers

Predicted Score: Bucs 31 / Saints 30

Game: Jets +11 at Pats, O/U 47, 4:25pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Jets are coming off a big 35-9 victory against the Colts and at 3-3 are right in the thick of the playoff race despite how bad the season has seemed due to media attention.  Offensively the running game finally got going last week while the passing game continues to struggle.  Jets rank 8th on defense against the pass and 28th against the run.  The Pats lost is Seattle last week and have looked shaky all season.  The new running game with Bolden/Ridley should be effective against the Jets weak run D.  The Jets are really going to miss Revis in this one, but the key will be the safeties locking up New England's tight-ends. 

Line Movement: Opened -11 and Steady with 54% of Public Bets on Pats, No Signs of Sharp $ and Offered in -10.5 to -12 Range at Books

Bet Trends: Jets are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games.  Pats are 28-10-1 ATS last 39 following a loss and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the AFC.  Home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings and Jets 6-13-1 ATS last 20 vs. the Pats.

The Pick: Pats -10.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Pats 31 / Jets 20

Game: Jags +4 at Raiders, O/U 43, 4:25pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Jags are 1-4 and coming off a bye week after being dismantled by Chicago.  They rank last in passing offense, 22nd in rushing, and 30th against the run.  The Raiders are also 1-4 and almost knocked off the Falcons last week on the road.  Oakland's weakness is defending the pass, but should fare well this week vs. Gabbert and get pressure on the QB.  Oakland also needs to get McFadden more touches and he could be set for a big game after looking impressive last week.  MJD always seems to find success against the Raiders and will carry a heavy load this week.  The Raiders schedule sets up for them to make a run and this game could very well be the turning point in the season, so I expect a strong effort.

Line Movement: Opened -5 with 72% of Public Bets on Raiders so Slight Sharp $ on Jags

Bet Trends: Jags are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 road games, but 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games after allowing 350+ yards the prior game.  Raiders are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. the AFC, but 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games following a loss.

The Pick: Raiders -4 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Raiders 30 / Jaguars 20

Game: Steelers -2.5 at Bengals, O/U 45.5, 8:20pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Steelers are 2-3 and had a long week to prepare, but are not the Steelers of old ranked 31st in running the ball and still facing plenty of injuries on both sides of the ball.  The Bengals are 3-3 and can look forward to a bye week next week, and will look to basically put an end to the Steelers season.  The Bengals lost to the Browns last week in a turnover filled game and have dropped two straight.  AJ Green should draw Ike Taylor most of the game, one of the better cover corners in the league, so Dalton will need to make good decisions.  Dalton has been sacked 17 times already and the Steelers will look to bring pressure in this one early and often.  The Steelers O-Line is banged up and should allow for pressure on Big Ben, although he is dangerous outside the pocket. 

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 and 66% of Public Bets on Road Steelers

Bet Trends: Steelers are 9-1 ATS last 10 after a loss, but 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. AFC teams and 0-7 ATS last 7 road games.  Bengals are 3-9-3 ATS last 15 overall and 1-5-1 ATS last 7 home games, also just 1-9-2 ATS last 12 vs. the AFC.  Bengals are 0-6-2 ATS last 8 vs. AFC North teams.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 meetings in Cincinnati. 

The Pick: Bengals +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:

Game: Lions +6.5 at Bears, O/U 47.5, 8:30pm on 10-22

Analysis: The Lions are 2-3 and have managed to get behind early in games but come charging back and all 3 losses have been by 8 or less points with the 2nd ranked pass offense and 11th against the run on D.  The Bears have looked like the NFL's best team and sometimes the worst team, but come off a bye week healthy and at home winning their last 3 by 81 points.  The defense is scoring a lot of points off turnovers and they only allow 66 yards per game on the ground, and Jennings and Tillman are two solid cover corners. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and Offered -6, -6.5 and -7 at Books with 63% of Public Bets on Bears and Line Dropped Early in Week to -4.5 and Steamed Higher

Bet Trends: Lions are 1-8 ATS last 9 vs. NFC teams and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Bears are 5-1 ATS last 6 MNF games and 5-2 ATS last 5 games at home. 

The Pick: Bears -6.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bears 34 / Lions 24

College Football Week 8 Preview and Picks

Game: South Carolina +3.5 at Florida, O/U 42, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: South Carolina is coming off its first loss of the year that hurts its chanced to play in the National Championship game.  Star RB Lattimore is questionable for the game with a hip injury that could be a big loss.  Florida is 6-0 and beat the LSU team that South Carolina lost to, although at home.  The other element in play here is that Spurrier returns to Florida.  Florida has a great D ranked 20th in the nation and will look to force Shaw to beat them through the air.  The Gators will look to get Gillislee the ball after LSU had some success running the ball on the Gamecocks last week and the Gators have a better QB than LSU and should be able to move the ball through the air as well.  Special Teams could play a major factor with Ace Sanders returning kicks for South Caroline, but Florida has a great Kicker for a game that could see a lot of FG attempts.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 51% of Public Bets Florida

Bet Trends: Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS last 10 road games and 6-0 ATS last 6 overall.  Gators are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games, but just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games.  Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. Florida and the home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 matchups.  Florida is 4-12 ATS last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.

The Pick:  Florida -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Florida 23 / South Carolina 17

Game: Michigan St. +9.5 at Michigan, O/U 43, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis:  Michigan St. has lost 2 of its last 3 and despite having a strong D and great RB the QB play has been too inconsistent.  Michigan will be looking to take out some revenge this week with the Spartans owning the recent series.  The Wolverines have lost to Alabama and Notre Dame this season, two of the better teams, and dominated recent opponents.  Denard Robinson is a dual threat and should give the Spartans fits.  I think Michigan St really struggles to move the ball and Michigan makes a few explosive plays.

Line Movement: Opened at -11.5 and 64% of Public Bets Michigan St. Pushing Line Down to 9.5 but would not surprise me to see Sharps bid this back up. 

Bet Trends: Spartans are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, but 3-8 ATS last 11 after scoring less than 20 points in the prior game.  Wolverines are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games, but 9-24 ATS last 33 conference games.  Spartans are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings, but the favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 matchups.

The Pick:  Michigan -9 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Michigan 27 / Michigan St. 13

Game: LSU -3.5 at Texas A&M, O/U 52.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis: LSU won a big home game last week but has struggled on the road this season and 0-4 at College Station over the last few years.  The offense is limited because of poor QB play, but a trio of RB's that grind and wear on teams late in games.  A&M has the best offense in the SEC in terms of piling up yards and points, but has allowed a ton of points the last 2 games as well.  Manziel is an exciting player on offense and his quickness could keep plays alive for A&M to find some holes in the LSU D that ranks 3rd in the Nation on pass D.  A&M will be pumped for this game to show they belong in the SEC's elite, and LSU may lack the energy to stay with A&M. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 70% of Public Bets LSU Pushing Spread to 3.5 with A&M Seeing Some Sharp $ Activity

Bet Trends: Tigers are 6-2 ATS last 8 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 conference games.  Aggies are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 conference games and 1-10 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams. 

The Pick:  Texas A&M +3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: LSU 24 / Texas A&M 27

Game: Baylor +8 at Texas, O/U 81, 8pm on 10-20

Analysis:  Baylor takes its' top ranked passing offense on the road to face a team that has been unable to stop anyone, although Baylor is allowing 41.6 points per game as well.  Texas has lost two straight, although to West Virginia and Oklahoma, two powerhouse teams.  The Texas offense should have little issue moving the ball, but it will come down to being able to make a few stops.  Texas lost its best defensive player in Jeffcoat for the season which is a big blow.  Baylor turned the ball over 6 times last week and can't afford to do that this week if they want to win 3 straight vs. Texas for the first time.  Texas will have no answer for Terrance Williams at WR and Baylor could easily pull the upset in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and Pushed Down to -8.5 with 56% of Public on Baylor and Some Sharp $ as Well to Move the Line that Hard

Bet Trends: Bears are 1-6 ATS last 7 road games and 8-20 ATS last 28 following a double-digit loss at home.  Longhorns are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 home games and 2-13-1 ATS last 16 after rushing for less than 100 yards in its prior game.  Baylor is 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Texas and road team in 10-04 ATS last 14 matchups. 

The Pick: Baylor +8 @ 2 Units (+11 Available Early in Week a Much Better Play)

Predicted Score: Texas 45 / Baylor 42

Game: Texas Tech -2 at TCU, O/U 55, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The 5-1 Red Raiders are coming off a 49-14 thrashing of WVU and getting zero respect from the lines-makers this week.  Texas Tech has a much improved D that held the Nation's most explosive offense to 14 points, and an offense led by Seth Doege who can throw as well as anyone.  TCU is also 5-1 and life without WB Pachall has not been bad, beating Baylor 49-21 last week with the D forcing turnovers.  TCU has forced 20 turnovers and Doege threw 5 INT's combined in two games versus Iowa St and Oklahoma.  Texas Tech should provide a challenge for new Freshman QB Boykin this week. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 66% of Public Bets Texas Tech, Steady Line but Feels Like Sharps are Keeping this Below 3

Bet Trends: Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall and 6-2 ATS last 8 road games.  TCU is 2-5 ATS last 7 conference games. 

The Pick:  TCU +2.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: TCU 24 / Texas Tech 20

Game: Rutgers -5.5 at Temple, O/U 41.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis: Rutgers is 6-0 and now ranked 15th in the Nation but yet to face much competition.  Temple has won 2 straight close ones vs. South Florida and UCONN and relies on running the ball, but Rutgers excels at stopping the run.  Temple's D gets pressure on the QB, ranked 10th in sacks, but Rutgers has only allowed 3 sacks all season.  Rutgers seems to match strengths with Temple and has the better D.  Jamison should be able to run the ball effectively for Rutgers with Temple struggling to stop the run most of the year. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and -4.5 to -6 Range at Books and 77% of Public Bets Rutgers, the Road Favorite but Early Sharp $ Signals on Temple

Bet Trends: Scarlet Knights are 15-7-1 ATS last 23 on the road and 5-1 ATS last 6 Big East games.  Owls are 13-3 ATS last 16 Big East games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams. 

The Pick: Rutgers -5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Rutgers 24 / Temple 17

Game: Kansas St. +2.5 at West Virginia, O/U 73.5, 7pm on 10-20

Analysis: Kansas St is 6-0 and now ranked 4th nationally but really should have lost last week vs. Iowa St.  Klein is a winner and makes plays at the right time and the Defense always shows up to play, but will face its toughest test of the season this week, and so far K-St has played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  West Virginia is coming off a terrible loss at Texas Tech but should respond this week at home and bounce back.  However, Geno Smith struggled against a ranked D and only has performed well against defenses ranked 100+ and his Heisman hopes may rely on this game.  K-St's D is very similar to Texas Tech in that it does not allow big plays that WVU thrives on. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Sharp $ Hit K-St. Hard Down to 2.5/3 with K-St also seeing 55% of Public Bets.  The Under is popular with sharp betters.

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 road games and 19-6-1 ATS last 26 conference games.  Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 2-11 ATS last 13 home games against teams with winning road records.   

The Pick:  Kansas St +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 30 / WVU 27

Game: Virginia Tech +8 at Clemson, O/U 61.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis:  V-Tech came back and beat Duke 41-20 after losing 3 of 4 and has really looked bad most of the season and just lost the starting center for the season.  Clemson is coming off a bye week well rested and at home with a great offense, but defensive struggles.  Clemson tore up the Hokies D last year and this year Clemson's offense is better and the Hokies D is worse.  V-Tech's only hope is to control the clock and did get the ground attack finally going last week.

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and 72% of Public Bets Clemson and Small Sharp Action on VT

Bet Trends: Hokies are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall and 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road.  Tigers are 4-0 ATS last 4 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Hokies are 5-2 ATS last 7 matchups with Clemson and underdog is 4-0 ATS. 

The Pick: Clemson -8 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Clemson 52 / Virginia Tech 31

Game: Stanford -2.5 at Cal, O/U 48.5, 3pm on 10-20

Analysis: Stanford is coming off a game where they feel they were robbed at Notre Dame.  The D continues to play well but they are 0-2 on the road, and QB Nunes is too inconsistent, but Taylor the offensive focal point running the ball.  Cal is 3-4 and has been up and down all season, but has played ranked teams well.  Stanford could come out flat after last week's loss and is beaten up after a physical game, and Cal needs to make some big plays through the air, also with an inconsistent QB in Maynard, but a top WR in the nation in Keenan Allen.  Nunes has yet to throw a TD on the road this season. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and Steady but 83% of Public Bets Stanford and Cal Seeing a ton of Smart $ Activity

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 13-2-1 ATS last 16 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 games following a loss.  Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 after a win.  Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs. Cal and road team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Cal +3 @ 3 Units (Money-Line Attractive)

Predicted Score: Cal 20 / Stanford 17

Game: NC St. -3.5 at Maryland, O/U 45, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: NC State is 4-2 and coming off a bye after upsetting FSU at home.  With Glennon at QB the Wolfpack have a NFL-caliber QB and the Defense is also stout with star CB Amerson.  Maryland is also 4-2 and 2-0 in the ACC and a team that I have been impressed with, especially on defense.  Maryland "held" West Virginia to 31 points on the road and should limit NC St. offensively ranked 18th nationally against the pass.  Maryland has little running game and has a Freshman QB that has to face a very good secondary. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 53% of Public Bets NC St. but Line Down to 3/3.5 Shows Smart $ on Maryland

Bet Trends: Wolfpack are 0-3-1 ATS last 4 road games.  Terrapins are 3-10 ATS last 13 overall and 0-9 ATS last 9 home games.  Home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.  

The Pick:  NC St. -3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: NC St. 24 / Maryland 17

Game: Cincinnati -7.5 at Toledo, O/U 64.5, 7pm on 10-20

Analysis:  The 5-0 Bearcats interrupt their Big East schedule to play to 6-1 Rockets of the MAC.  The Bearcats have looked good, a great aggressive D, and Legaux a playmaker at QB with a strong running game with Winn as well, but the strength of schedule is just not there and has to be careful not to overlook this game with a key matchup vs. Louisville next week.  Toledo has a dangerous passing attack that will stretch the Bearcats D, and the Rockets have won 6 straight with the loss starting the year on the road at Arizona and coming in Overtime.  Toledo has fared well against ranked teams at home in the past and this game as upset potential. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 with Public Split 50/50 and Line -6.5/-7 at Books so Shop Around Depending on What Side You Want

Bet Trends: Bearcats are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the MAC.  Rockets are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big East opponents and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall. 

The Pick:  Toledo +7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cincinnati 45 / Toledo 38

Game: Penn St. +3 at Iowa, O/U 42.5, 8pm on 10-20

Analysis: Penn St has won 4 in a row and coming off a bye week after beating ranked Northwestern.  McGloin looks good at QB and the D ranks 15th in point against.  Iowa is coming off a big OT win at Michigan St. and also stands at 4-2 with defense leading the way.  Iowa's running game is hurting with injuries leaving it to Freshman Garmon.  This should be a very low scoring game although Penn St has the QB advantage I think the solid kicking game of Iowa plays a big part, while Penn St. can barely make extra points let alone FG's.

Line Movement: Opened +2 and 68% of Public Bets Penn St but Line Up to 3 so Sharps on Iowa. 

Bet Trends: Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall, but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 vs. teams with winning records.  Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS last 8 following a win.  Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and Penn St. is just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. Iowa.

The Pick:  Iowa -2.5 @ 3 Units (wait for Line to Drop) or Penn St. +3.5

Predicted Score: Iowa 16 / Penn St. 10

Game: San Diego St. +6.5 at Nevada, O/U 66.5, 10:35pm on 10-20

Analysis: A Mountain-West matchup with the 4-2 Aztecs visiting the 6-1 Wolfpack.  SD St. has lost games to Washington, San Jose St, and Fresno St and wins are against low quality teams, but average 225 yards a game rushing.  Nevada averages 285 yards per game rushing, 6th in the country and led by dual threat QB Fajardo (back from injury) and one of the better RB's Jefferson.  San Diego St. has some NFL talent with Tight End Escobar and Cornerback McFadden. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Steady with 56% of Public Betting Nevada

Bet Trends: Aztecs are 1-10 ATS last 11 following a game of rushing for 200+ yards and 4-9 ATS last 13 after an ATS win.  Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games, but 1-6 ATS last 7 home games and 1-8-1 ATS last 10 following a win.

The Pick: Nevada -6.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Nevada 41 / San Diego St. 27

Game: South Florida +6 at Louisville, O/U 52.5, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The Bulls have lost 4 straight and are coming off a bye week trying to turn things around with a very capable QB in Daniels.  Louisville is 6-0 and ranked 14th in the nation lead by Teddy Bridgewater at QB, but 4 straight tight games against low quality teams.  South Florida is last against the run in the Big East and Louisville RB Perry scored 4 TD's last wek vs. a much better Pitt D. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 and 75% of Public Bets Louisville but Line Down to 6 with Sharp $ Active

Bet Trends: Bulls are 8-20 ATS last 28 conference games and 3-12 ATS last 15 overall.  Cardinals are 8-1 ATS last 9 conference games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. teams with losing records. 

The Pick:  Louisville -6 @ 2 Units (It's a Square Play and Against the Smart $, but Louisville a Much Better Team)

Predicted Score: Louisville 45 / South Florida 27

Game: Nebraska -7 at Northwestern, O/U 61, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The 4-2 Cornhuskers are coming off a bye week after Ohio St put 63 on them and off to a rough start to the season.  Nebraska averages nearly 300 yards a game rushing with Abdullah, Martinez, and Burkhead.  Northwestern is 18th in the country running the ball but its toughest test this year at Penn St ended in an 11 point loss. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Steady with 57% of Public Betting Nebraska with Smart $ Grabbing Line at -4 and Pushing to -6.5 and if gets to 7 expect buybacks

Bet Trends: Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS last 7 after allowing 40+ points in a game but 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games.  Wildcats are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home, 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, but 6-13 ATS last 19 conference games. 

The Pick: Northwestern +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Northwestern 31 / Nebraska 27