College Football Week 10 Picks

Game: Texas A&M -6.5/7 at Miss. St, O/U 59, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis:  The Aggies are 6-2 and 3rd in the country averaging 45.5 points per game with the Johnny Manziel show.  Mississippi St. is at home with a 7-1 record and coming off its first loss, 38-7 to Alabama, just overmatched.  The Bulldogs lack quality wins so it is right to question if they are for real, but Russell has shown he is an up and coming QB.  A&M has been prone to turnovers this season and the Bulldogs are 6th in the Nation with a +13 turnover margin. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Jumped Quickly to 6; 54% Public Bets A&M

Bet Trends: Aggies are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games and 2-7 ATS last 9 following a win.  Aggies are 1-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.  Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 at home and 10-3 ATS last 13 on grass.

The Pick: Miss. St +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Miss. St. 30 / Texas A&M 27

Game: Oklahoma -11 at Iowa St, O/U 52.5, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oklahoma will look to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Notre Dame last weekend with consistency being a problem this season.  Iowa St. will be looking for an upset and plays well at home in big games, nearly knocking off Kansas St. earlier this season.  The defense should be able to contain Landry Jones' offense, but Iowa St. may struggle to score.  Iowa St. will also be without Jake Knott on Defense, a leading tackler which is a major loss.

Line Movement: Steady; 65% Public Bets Sooners

Bet Trends: Sooners are 10-1 ATS last 11 after scoring < 20 points and 21-7 ATS last 28 following a loss.  Cyclones are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 Big 12 games.  Sooners are 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Oklahoma -11 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 34 / Iowa St. 17

Game: Tulsa +7.5 at Arkansas, O/U 64, 12:20pm on 11-3

Analysis: Arkansas has started to bounce back from a disappointing season, but lost last week to Ole Miss.  The Hogs have plenty of talent on offense with Wilson and Johnson, but have struggled stopping high scoring offenses.  Tulsa comes in from the Conf. USA with a 7-1 record and averaging nearly 250 yards/game rushing.  They have not played anyone of Arkansas' caliber, but opened the season with a 15 point loss to Iowa St.  Tulsa leads the nation in sacks with 35 and  could force some turnovers to keep this one close, but does rank 95th against the pass, so NFL prospect Wilson should be in for a good day if he finds time.  Tulsa has all the momentum coming in to try and steal a huge upset win, and if there was any year to pull it off versus Arkansas it would be this year. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and "Steam to -7.5"; 72% Public Bets Arkansas

Bet Trends: Tulsa is 11-4 ATS last 15 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 non-conf. games.  Arkansas is 21-7 ATS last 28 at home but 2-5 ATS last 7 overall. 

The Pick: Tulsa +7.5 @ 1 Unit (Money-Line Worth a Shot)

Predicted Score: Tulsa 34 / Arkansas 38

Game: TCU +6.5 at West Virginia, O/U 68, 3pm on 11-3

Analysis: TCU is 5-3 and yet to have a quality win, and although Boykin has filled in at QB admirably, the team only put up 14 on the Oklahoma St. weak defense last week.  West Virginia has dropped two straight and has been blown out, over-matched by Big 12 teams with solid defenses, but is coming off a bye.  WVU still has plenty of weapons, but Geno Smith has struggled when facing a D ranked in the top 80. 

Line Movement: Opened -7, Not Much Movement; 63% Public Bets TCU

Bet Trends: Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS last 9 after a loss but 1-5 ATS last 6 Big 12 games.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs. teams with winning road records.

The Pick: West Virginia -6.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: West Virginia 48 / TCU 37

Game: Ole Miss +14 at Georgia, O/U 63, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Ole Miss is a solid 5-3 team that hung in there against both Alabama and Texas A&M in losses and a very talented offense with Wallace, Scott, and Moncrief.  Georgia is coming off of a huge win vs. Florida and stands 7-1 with a team full of NFL prospects.  Jarvis Jones on D for the Bulldogs is a game-changer.  Georgia has not exactly pulled away from teams this year, so a cover is likely, but a Georgia win.

Line Movement: Opened -14 and Steady; 55% Public Bets Ole Miss

Bet Trends: Rebels are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall but 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. winning record teams.  Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS last 8 at home.  Road Team is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings and Ole Miss 2-5 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick: Ole Miss +14 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Georgia 23 / Ole Miss 13

Game: Pitt +16.5 at Notre Dame, O/U 46, 3:30pm on 11-3; 52% Public Bet Notre Dame

Analysis: Pitt has won 4 of 6 and is a different team than when it opened the season, but will face its toughest test this weekend.  The Fighting Irish are 8-0 and have beaten 4 ranked teams, and winning close games with its Defense.  Notre Dame has to be careful not to let off the gas now that it enters the weaker part of its schedule because Pitt can play.  Pitt has enough offensive weapons to spread the ball around and play a low scoring, grind it out game, which favors a cover in a spread this wide.

Line Movement: Opened -17.5, Fairly Steady

Bet Trends: Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 overall and 3-1-1 ATS last 5 road games, and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs. winning record teams.  Fighting Irish are 4-10 ATS last 14 after allowing 280+ passing yards and 2-5 ATS last 7 after an ATS win.  Road Team is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 meetings and Underdog is 6-0-1 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Pitt +17 @ 2 Units (Bovada)

Predicted Score: Pitt 13 / Notre Dame 24

Game: Nebraska -1.5 at Michigan St, O/U 44.5, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Nebraska is 6-2 and has won 5 of its last 6 with the one loss at Ohio St.  Michigan St. has dropped 3 of 5 and ranks 11th in scoring offense but 10th on defense.  Nebraska has struggled on the road this season, and the Spartans are coming off a big upset against Wisconsin.  I have little faith in Maxwell at QB for Mich. St and a bit more in Martinez for Nebraska, and the Corn Huskers kicker had a huge game last week and that likely comes back into play this weekend.

Line Movement: Opened as a Pick-Em with Nebraska clearly attracting some money; 66% Public Bets Nebraska

Bet Trends: Nebraska is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 Conf. games and 0-5-1 ATS last 6 road games.  Spartans are 5-1 ATS last 6 after an ATS win but 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and favorite is 4-0 ATS.

The Pick: Nebraska -1.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Nebraska 20 / Michigan St. 13

Game: Texas +7 at Texas Tech, O/U 67, 3:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Texas has bounced back from losses vs. Oklahoma and West Virginia and beat Baylor by 6 and Kansas by 4, not all too impressive.  Texas has proven it cannot stop the pass and this week has to face a powerful passing offense ranked 3rd in the country at 357 yards/game.  The Red Raiders have wins vs. West Virginia and TCU and losses to Oklahoma and K. St.  The Defense is much improved and overall Tech has the advantage in this game. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and Jumped with 75% Public Bets on Texas Tech

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Red Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 after an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS last 8 overall.  Home Team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Texas Tech -7 @ 2 Units (Prefer < 7 for 4 Units)

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 45 / Texas 34

Game: Oregon -7.5 at USC, O/U 70, 7pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oregon as run away in every game this season, but really has yet to face a top tier team, and USC can be top tier in terms of talent, but needs to bring the effort to have a chance.  Oregon has let up in a lot of games after jumping out to big leads, but likely will keep the throttle on in this one to impress the polls.  USC lost on the road to Arizona and has struggled with opponents nowhere near Oregon's caliber, so this could turn into a blowout, although USC's D has played fairly well this season.

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 84% of Public Bets Oregon (Squares?) with some Sharp $ on USC at +7

Bet Trends: Ducks are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, and 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs. winning record teams.  Trojans are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home but just 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Favorite is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: Oregon -7.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon 38 / USC 27

Game: Alabama -9.5 at LSU, O/U 42, 8pm on 11-3

Analysis: Alabama has yet to allow more than 14 points in a game this season and is averaging 40.6 on offense, and faces a LSU team that has a very simple offense to stop, no passing game, just stop the run.  LSU does play D well and held an explosive Texas A&M offense to 19 points and Florida to 14, so the 9.5 point spread seems a bit large considering its likely to be a low scoring game.  However, LSU does not deserve to even be in the Top 10 and it will show this weekend when 'Bama comes in and dominates.

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 67% of Public Bets Alabama and Smart $ as Well

Bet Trends: Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS last 7 SEC games and 7-3 ATS last 10 overall.  Tigers are 1-4 ATS last 5 SEC games.  Road Team is 13-3-1 ATS last 17 meetings and Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS.

The Pick: Alabama -9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Alabama 23 / LSU 6

Game: Oklahoma St. +9.5 at Kansas St, O/U 66, 8pm on 11-3

Analysis: Oklahoma St. has ripped off 3 straight wins and it does not seem to matter who is playing QB, but has not beaten any quality opponents.  They will face the toughest defense year to date this week and are likely to struggle.  Wes Lunt will be back at QB and the Freshman may struggle in a hostile environment with turnovers, similar to how he opened the season.  K. St is on a roll with Heisman hopeful Klein at QB and looks set to run the table.  They play great opportunistic D and a balanced offensive attack. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 and Moved Up Quick to 9.5/10 with 83% of Public on Kansas St.

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games and 21-9 ATS last 30 overall.  Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 21-6-1 ATS in Big 12 games.  Cowboys are 2-6 ATS last 8 meetings but Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: K. St -9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 45 / Oklahoma St. 31

Game: Arizona +3.5 at UCLA, O/U 71, 9:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Arizona is coming off a big upset vs. USC but has struggled on the road this season at 0-2.  Scott is a playmaker at QB but also makes a lot of mistakes and the D let up 49 to Oregon quickly and 54 to Stanford.  UCLA is 6-2 and beat a good Arizona St team last week and Utah the week before.  Hundley and Franklin are getting the job done with a balanced attack, but the D has been an issue.  UCLA is 6th in sacks with 3.35 per game and in a likely shootout it will come down to turnovers and 3rd down stops, and UCLA has the advantage at home.

Line Movement: Opened at 1.5 and Jumped to 3.5 with 54% of Public Bets on Arizona, so Sharp $ Clearly on UCLA Early

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall but 3-7 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Bruins are 5-2 ATS last 7 at home but 4-10 ATS last 14 after a win.  Wildcats are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings with Home Team 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings.

The Pick: UCLA -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: UCLA 52 / Arizona 45

Game: San Diego St. +14 at Boise St, O/U 50.5, 10:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: Aztecs come in at 6-3 with 4 straight wins and averaging 223 rushing yards per game, good for 18th nationally.  Boise St. is not the team it once was and struggles to score, but the D is only allowing 13.6 points per game, 5th in the country.  Aztecs are also without starting QB Katz, but mainly rely on the ground game. 

Line Movement: Opened -15 and Some Books as Low as 13.5 with 87% of Public on Boise St.

Bet Trends: Aztecs are 3-8 ATS last 11 after a win.  Broncos are 3-8 ATS last 11 home games. 

The Pick:  San Diego St +14 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: San Diego St. 13 / Boise St 24

Game: Arizona St. +4.5 at Oregon St., O/U 54.5, 10:30pm on 11-3

Analysis: The Sun Devils are 5-3 with 2 straight losses to Oregon and UCLA and head back on the road this week.  Oregon St. was unable to stay undefeated and suffered its first defeat last week to the Huskies, but even the wins have come in close games all season long.  Cody Vaz will start again at QB for the Beavers and has been efficient. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Steady with 69% of Public Bets on Oregon St.

Bet Trends: Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS last 6 after a loss.  Beavers are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 overall and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 vs. winning record teams.  Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Arizona St +4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oregon St. 27 / Arizona St. 24

Game: Syracuse +5 at Cincinnati, O/U 56, 12pm on 11-3

Analysis: Syracuse is 4-4 and has been in every game it's played this year, now on a 2 game win streak with the 16th ranked passing game in the country.  Cincy has dropped 2 straight after a 5-0 start and needs to take back control of the Big East, and has a great D and an exciting QB in Legaux, but is losing top pass rusher for the season. 

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 85% of Public on Cincy, so Sharps Clearly on Syracuse Pushing Line to -4

Bet Trends: Orange are 3-9-1 ATS last 13 overall and 2-8 ATS last 10 after a win, also just 1-7 ATS last 8 road games.  Bearcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 13-6-1 ATS last 20 after a loss.  Road Team is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Cincy -4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cincy 31 / Syracuse 24