Game: Arkansas +8 at Auburn, O/U
54.5, 12pm on 10-6
Analysis: Arkansas is 1-4 and a complete disaster of a season
with 4 straight losses including a 58-10 thrashing last week to Texas
A&M. Tyler Wilson, Knile Davis, and
Cobi Hamilton are a talented QB-RB-WR threat but the team is just making too
many mistakes. Auburn is 1-3 and
although a solid effort last week against LSU in a 12-10 defeat, the team is
inept offensively with Frazier a lousy QB.
Auburn is coming off of a bye week which helps and will also have the
home field advantage, and if any defense can cure a sick offense, it is this
year's Razorbacks. The way Auburn's D
played against LSU they should have confidence coming into this one and enough
to beat up a team that is not playing for their new coach.
Line
Movement: Opened -10.5
and Pushed Down to -8 at a Few Books with 62% of Public Betting Auburn
Bet
Trends: Arkansas is
0-7 ATS last 7 road games and 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a bye week. Auburn is 14-6 ATS last 20 SEC games but 5-12
ATS last 17 games following a loss. Auburn is 2-5 ATS last 7 home games against
Arkansas.
The
Pick: Auburn -8 @ 2
Units
Predicted
Score: Auburn 34 / Arkansas 24
Game: Northwestern +2 at Penn
State, O/U 48, 12pm on 10-6
Analysis: The 24th ranked Wildcats go on the road for a big
match-up after starting the season 5-0.
Northwestern has a strong running attack with 2 RB's averaging more than
5 yards per carry and combining for 900+ yards.
Penn St. Matt McGloin has had a lot of success against Northwestern in
the past and the Wildcats secondary remains a weakness. Penn St.'s run defense is much improved and
will look to control the 9th best rushing team in the country. If the game comes down to the kicking game
Northwestern has a major advantage. Penn
St. has won 3 straight and seems to have put the offseason distractions behind
them, and it will be a whiteout at Beaver Stadium.
Line
Movement: Opened -4 and
Falling with 69% of Public Betting Northwestern
Bet
Trends: Northwestern is 5-0
ATS last 5 games overall but just 5-12 ATS last 17 conference games. Penn St. is 4-0 ATS last 4 overall, but 3-7-1
ATS last 11 home games. The favorite is
4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and home team is 9-4 ATS last 13. Northwestern is 1-5 ATS last 6 games at Penn
St.
The
Pick: Penn St -2 @ 1
Unit
Predicted
Score: Penn St 24 / Northwestern 20
Game: Arizona +9 at Stanford, O/U
54.5, 3pm on 10-6
Analysis: Stanford is coming off of an upset loss to Washington
on the road and returns home 3-1.
Arizona played a tough Oregon St. team last week and lost only by 3
although it controlled much of the game, a strong answer to the beating it took
the week prior at Oregon, so on the road this team looks different. Stanford has a Defense that will cause
problems for the Wildcats but needs to come up with some offense with QB Nunes
really struggling to fill the shoes of Andrew Luck. Stanford is a much more physical team while
the Wildcats have more speed than size. Nunes
should be able to find some success against a poor Arizona pass D, and look for
Stephan Taylor to lead the Cardinals to victory with the running game.
Line
Movement: Opened -12.5
and Pushed Down with 52% of Public Betting Stanford; Smart $ Bets Mixed with
Top Book Betting Stanford -9.5
Bet
Trends: Arizona is 3-7 ATS
last 10 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.
Stanford is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 Pac 12 games and 22-8 ATS last 30 games
at home. Arizona is 1-4 ATS last 5 games
against Stanford.
The
Pick: Stanford -9 @
2 Units
Predicted
Score: Stanford 31 / Arizona 17
Game: Northern Illinois -3 at
Ball State, 3pm on 10-6
Analysis: Ball St. has an explosive offense but also can't stop
anyone, which is the norm in the MAC.
Ball St. is 3-2 and lost to Kent. St by 2 on the road last week. Northern Illinois is 4-1 and even had a
victory against a Big 12 school Kansas.
Northern Illinois has the best D in the MAC and can also put up points
while Ball St. is over-reliant on its offense to stay in games. Ball St. did however beat a South Florida
team that hung with Florida St last week.
Line
Movement: Opened at -1.5
and High of -3, Settled at -2.5 with 75% of Public Betting Northern Illinois;
Ball St. is seeing the Smart $ with Public Seen as Squares
Bet
Trends: Northern Illinois is
4-1-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 2-5 ATS last 7 road games. Ball St. is 9-2 ATS last 11 overall but just
5-15 ATS last 20 home games. Huskies are
5-2 ATS last 7 meetings at Ball St and road team is 5-2 ATS last games in this
matchup.
The
Pick: Ball St. +3 @ 2
Units
Predicted
Score: Northern Illinois 38 / Ball St. 41
Game: LSU -3 at Florida, O/U
42.5, 3:30pm on 10-6
Analysis: LSU struggled against Towson last week and looked
unimpressive at Auburn the week prior, but can win games with its defense. Florida looks to remain undefeated and at
Home for their biggest test of the season.
Florida has beaten quality teams in Texas A&M and Tennessee and is
coming off a bye week. Driskel has been
impressive at QB and Gillislee has been one of the better RB's in the country
this season. LSU's strength into this
game will be running the ball with Spencer Ware and its D-Line against an often
shaky Gator's O-Line. LSU could have
easily lost last week if Auburn had a capable QB, so look for Florida to pull
out the big victory.
Line
Movement: Opened -4 and
Pushed Down to -2.5/3 Range with Public 50/50 Split
Bet
Trends: LSU is 6-1 ATS
last 7 road games. Florida is 1-5-1 ATS
last 7 home games but 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall. LSU is 2-5 ATS last 7 meetings and road team
is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings.
The
Pick: Florida +3 @ 3
Units
Predicted
Score: Florida 20 / LSU 17
Game: Wake Forest +6 at Maryland,
O/U 50, 3:30pm on 10-6
Analysis: Maryland is 2-2 and coming off a bye week and I was
real impressed with the 10 point loss at West Virginia with the defense and
especially the young QB. Obviously the
team has been inconsistent as it also lost to UCONN the week prior by 3. Wake Forest is 3-2 with a weak schedule, its
only test FSU was a 52-0 loss. Wake
Forest's defense has not played well and they are missing top WR
Campanero. Maryland's D is ranked 8th
nationally and really looks to have a major advantage in this one.
Line
Movement: Opened -4 and
Pushed to -6 with 77% of Public Betting Maryland;
Bet
Trends: Wake Forest is
5-0 ATS last 5 after a loss, but 6-15 ATS last 21 road games. Maryland is 0-8 ATS last 8 games at home and
2-9 ATS last 11 overall. The favorite is
4-1 ATS last 5 meetings, home team is 4-1 ATS, and Wake Forest is 3-10 ATS last
13 meetings.
The
Pick: Maryland -6 @ 5
Units
Predicted
Score: Maryland 31 / Wake Forest 17
Game: Oklahoma -5 at Texas Tech,
O/U 58, 3:30pm on 10-6
Analysis: Oklahoma is coming off a bye after losing at home to
Kansas St. The Sooners have talent with
Landry Jones and Kenny Stills, but just do not seem to play with the intensity
needed to win games. Texas Tech is 4-0
although yet to face a team of Oklahoma's caliber with Seth Doege leading the
passing attack. The Sooners are 1 of two
teams yet to force a turnover this season.
Texas Tech also sports their best defensive unit in years due to new
coordinator Art Kaufman and Landry Jones is playing without confidence and can
easily get rattled.
Line
Movement: Oklahoma opened
-7 and Line Dropping with 60% Public on Texas Tech and Sharp Money Also on the
Red Raiders
Bet
Trends: Oklahoma is
20-7 ATS last 27 games following a loss, but just 1-4 ATS last 5 road
games. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS last 6 home
games against teams with a winning road record 5-1 ATS last 6 after a win. Home team si 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings between
these two teams.
The
Pick: Texas Tech +5 @
2 Units
Predicted
Score: Texas Tech 27 / Oklahoma 24
Game: Texas A&M -12 at
Mississippi, O/U 64.5, 7pm on 10-6
Analysis: Texas A&M romped Arkansas 58-10 last week and
this Manziel at QB is one of the most exciting players in football right now,
always making plays. Ole Miss is 3-2
with low-quality wins but only lost to Alabama by 19 last week with Bo Wallace
an exciting QB as well, so this should at least be a fun game to watch. A&M has the best 3rd down D in the SEC and
will look to get its powerful offense back on the field and pull away in this
one. Ole Miss has a lot of weapons with
Jeff Scott at RB and Moncrief at WR, so the potential is there to keep it
close. A Freshman QB for A&M heading
into hostile territory for its first SEC road game adds some pressure. A&M has holes in its secondary that Bo
Wallace should be able to exploit.
Line
Movement: Opened -8.5 and
71% of Public Betting A&M; Line has Seen as High as -13; Early Action Saw
Smart $ Steam the Line Higher, and Now some Miss $ Locking in the Spread
Bet
Trends: Texas A&M
is 4-1 ATS last 5 overall, 3-7 ATS last 10 games following a win, and 2-6 ATS
last 8 road games, also 1-8-1 ATS last 10 conference games. Rebels are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall, 4-9 ATS last
13 at home and 2-8 ATS last 10 conference games.
The
Pick: Texas A&M
-12 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Texas A&M 45 / Ole Miss 31
Game: West Virginia +6.5 at
Texas, O/U 74.5, 7pm on 10-6
Analysis: Two of the 10 best teams in the country come in at
4-0 and should be the game of the week.
West Virginia has yet to face top tier competition and squeezed out a
70-63 win vs. Baylor last week and opened the season with 4 straight home
games. Geno Smith is the top QB in the
country and Tavon Austin is a great WR along with Bailey, but the team may be
too 1-dimensional. Texas stole a victory
from Oklahoma St. last week on a horrid call, and the Defense has given up big
plays to OSU and Ole Miss, so West Virginia should have no issue scoring
points. This is the toughest test for
WVU since facing Maryland's D who did contain them. Texas has the best pass rush in the Big 12
and we have yet to see how Geno Smith performs under duress.
Line
Movement: Steady at -7
with 66% of Public Betting West Virginia
Bet
Trends: West Virginia
is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games but 2-6 ATS last 8 games after a win. Texas is 4-1 ATS last 5 overall, but 1-6 ATS
last 7 home games versus teams with winning road records.
The
Pick: Texas -6.5 @ 2
Units (Shop Around, A Few Books Offering 6.5)
Predicted
Score: Texas 38 / West Virginia 31
Game: Miami (OH) +19.5 vs.
Cincinnati, O/U 58.5, 7pm on 106
Analysis: The Bearcats are unbeaten at 3-0 and coming off a big
win against V-Tech with an aggressive defense and a play-making offense. This week they host a MAC team, the Redhawks
who are 3-2 with the losses 56-10 to Ohio St. and 39-12 to Boise St. The Bearcats may not be the type of team to
blow teams out, only beat Delaware St. 23-7 earlier this season. Zac Dysert is a QB that can make plays for
Miami (OH) and this is the oldest nonconference rivalry in the nation, the 117th
meeting. Bearcats have won the last 3 by
a total of 109-16 and this year's team may be their best.
Line
Movement: Opened -20.5
and 59% of Public Betting Cincinnati; Smart $ has Driven Line Lower when It
Exceeds 20
Bet
Trends: Redhawks are
7-2 ATS last 9 games following a win, but 2-6 ATS last 8 games versus Big East
opponents. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS last 5
non-conference games, 5-0 ATS last 5 overall and 6-2 ATS last 8 games at
home.
The
Pick: Cincy -19.5 @
2 Units
Predicted
Score: Cincy 38 / Miami (OH) 13
Game: Georgia +1 at South
Carolina, O/U 54, 7pm on 10-6
Analysis: Georgia and South Carolina are each 5-0 and this is
a huge game in the SEC. Georgia is
scoring 48 points per game but struggled to beat Tennessee last week, while
South Carolina had some issues against Kentucky in the first half, but neither
team has played the meat of their schedule yet.
Vandy and Missouri are common opponents and Georgia was the more
impressive team against each of those two.
South Carolina has been stout against the run and look to stop the
Bulldog Freshman duo averaging more than 8 yards per carry. Last week 4 of the TD's Georgia allowed were
defensive/special teams, so a bit of a fluke when looking at the score.
Line
Movement: Opened -2.5 and
58% of Public Betting Georgia; Line Been as Low as 0 and then Rebounds to -2;
Georgia Sees Some Steam when Line Hits 2
Bet
Trends: Georgia is 4-1
ATS last 5 road games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 games overall. South Carolina is 5-0 ATS last 5 home games,
6-0 ATS in games following a win, and 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a 20+
point win. Road teams are 5-1-1 ATS last
7 in this meeting, and Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.
The
Pick: South Carolina
-1 @ 1 Unit (ATS Trends Pick)
Predicted
Score: South Carolina 27 / Georgia 24
Game: Miami +14 at Notre Dame,
O/U 51.5, 7:30pm on 10-6
Analysis: Miami is 4-1and comes in with momentum after wins vs.
Georgia Tech and NC State and doing so with a vertical passing game, but Notre
Dame ranks 3rd nationally in scoring D.
Miami lost 52-13 against its only quality team, Kansas St. Notre Dame is a legitimate threat this year
and already beat two ranked teams, although the Big 10 stinks, with Michigan
and Michigan St and has Oklahoma and Stanford in the next 3 weeks. The game will be played at Soldier Field and
the weather could play a factor, likely in favor of Notre Dame. Notre Dame does not really have the type of
offense to cover a 14 point spread, but Miami's D has allowed 33 points per
game.
Line
Movement: Opened -11.5
and 58% Betting Miami; The Line Moving to Notre Dame but Public on Miami Tells
Me Smart $ on Notre Dame in -11 to -13 Range
Bet
Trends: Miami is 9-4
ATS last 13 games overall but 2-5 ATS last 7 non-conference games. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS last 10 after scoring
less than 20 points in prior game.
The
Pick: Miami +14 @ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Notre Dame 27 / Miami 17
Game: Nebraska +3.5 at Ohio St.,
O/U 57.5, 8pm on 10-6
Analysis: Ohio St is 5-0 but has not looked very impressive its
last 3 games, and relies completely on Braxton Miller to make play after
play. Nebraska got out to a big lead
against Wisconsin last week and almost let it slip away, but is 4-1 with its
most quality opponent UCLA a 36-30 loss.
This matchup is all about the QB's that are both dual threats with
Miller vs. Martinez. OSU held a great RB
in Bell from Mich. St last week and will need to play that kind of D again this
week against Burkhead.
Line
Movement: Opened -4 and
57% of Public Betting Ohio St.; Line at -3 to -3.5 at Books
Bet
Trends: Cornhuskers are
1-5 ATS last 6 games following a win and 1-3-1 ATS last 5 conference
games. Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS last 10
overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 home games.
The
Pick: Nebraska +3.5 @
2 Units
Predicted
Score: Nebraska 20 / Ohio St. 17
Game: UCLA -3 at Cal, O/U 55,
10pm on 10-6
Analysis: UCLA is 4-1 and ranks #25 but some of the early season
buzz seems to have come off after a loss to Oregon St. Cal is 1-4 but really has been in every game
it's played this year. UCLA has lost 6
straight games at Cal by an average of 16 points. Cal's defense is allowing a ton of yards and
more than 30 points per game and UCLA has plenty of offensive firepower.
Line
Movement: Opened -1.5 and
84% of Public Bet UCLA; Cal is Seeing Multiple Smart $ Bets
Bet
Trends: UCLA is 4-1 ATS
last 5 overall, 7-15 ATS last 22 conference games and 4-10 ATS last 14 road
games. Cal is 1-5 ATS last 6 games
overall but 8-3 ATS last 11 home games against teams with winning road
records. Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5
meetings and underdog is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 meetings. UCLA is 2-5 ATS last 7 games at Cal.
The
Pick: Cal +3 @ 1 Unit
(System Play with Smart $ and ATS Trends)
Predicted
Score: UCLA 28 / Cal 27
Game: Washington +24 at Oregon,
10:30pm on 10-6
Analysis: Oregon
is 5-0 and after a slow start is heating up although a Washington St team not
considered to be very good gave them a game last week until Oregon pulled
away. The Huskies are 3-1 and coming off
a major upset versus Stanford and Price is a solid QB and they have Williams at
WR who is one of the best in the country.
Washington has a lot
of issues on the O-Line and Oregon had 7 sacks last week.
Line
Movement: Opened -24 and
64% of Public Betting Oregon, Steady Line, Little Movement
Bet
Trends: Huskies are
12-4-1 ATS last 17 games on turf and 9-4-1 ATS last 14 Pac 12 games but 0-5 ATS
last 5 road games. Oregon is just 2-6-2
ATS last 10 home games. The favorite is
10-1-1 ATS last 12 meetings between these teams, road team is 3-1-1 ATS, and
Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS last 8 meetings.
The
Pick: Washington +24
@ 1 Unit
Predicted
Score: Oregon 48 / Washington 27
Other Notable Games
Georgia Tech
+10.5 at Clemson - G-Tech is 4-9-1 ATS last 14. Clemson is 10-3 ATS last 13 ACC
games but 1-4 ATS last 5 at home. G-Tech
has played terrible last two weeks but Clemson is not lived up to
abilities. I think Clemson covers the
-10.5 in this one.
Mississippi
St. -10 at Kentucky - Kentucky played S. Carolina well last week and drawing
some Sharp betting action. Wildcats 5-2
ATS last 7 after a loss. Bulldogs are
1-5 ATS last 6 road games. Miss. St is
un-tested but the QB is impressive. 86%
of Public Betting Miss. St, a bit one-sided. A home dog with smart $ action against an
un-tested team, I like Kentucky +10.
Michigan -3
at Purdue - Michigan is 1-4-1 ATS last 6 overall and playing poorly. Boilermakers are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 overall and
6-2 ATS last 8 at home. Purdue is
seeing the most Smart $ bets this week at +3.
Purdue only lost to Notre Dame by 3 and Michigan lost by 7. I like Purdue +3.
Kent St. -3
at Eastern Michigan - Eastern Michigan is seeing a ton of Sharp $ bets, tied
with Purdue for most sharp action.
Eastern Michigan is 7-20 ATS last 27 at home and Kent St. is 6-1 ATS
last 7 conference games. The favorite is
5-1 ATS last 6 meetings between these two teams. Eastern Michigan is 0-4 but they way it
played last week against Michigan St. clearly got some attention from smart $
while 79% of public bets Kent St.
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