College Football Week 7 Preview and Picks

Game: Louisville -3 at Pitt, O/U 49, 11am on 10/13

Analysis: Louisville looks to defend its 5-0 record on the road and coming off a bye week with Teddy Bridgewater leading the way and trying to overcome the 1-6 record for the Cardinals in Big East openers.  Pitt opened the season 0-2 and looked terrible, but the last 3 games has looked better, but lost last week to Syracuse 14-13 when it was unable to get the ground game going and allowed 5 sacks, although the Defense held its own not allowing a point the last 3 quarters.  Louisville has a Freshman QB, so a tough road game to get a win, but will get back leading WR Harris this week. 

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 and Public Bets 66% with Louisville; Early Smart $ on Louisville but Pitt Seeing Action at +3 as a Home Dog

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games, 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, but appear to play down to competition being 1-5 ATS last 6 versus teams with losing records.  Panthers are 14-3-1 ATS last 18 after passing for 280+ yards in game prior and 16-5 ATS last 21 following a loss, also 19-7-1 ATS last 27 conference games.  Louisville is 0-5 ATS last 5 vs. Pitt, but the favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick:  Pitt +3 @ 2 Units - The Under Also Attractive

Predicted Score: Pitt 20 / Louisville 17

Game: Kansas St. -7 at Iowa St, O/U 50, 12pm on 10-13

Analysis: Klein and the Wildcats jumped to a 6th spot in the national ranking with the 5-0 start, which includes a win at Oklahoma, and Klein/Hubert running the ball has been the key to success along with a stingy D.  Iowa St. would love to pull the upset and has two star LB's that may be able to slowdown the Wildcat rushing attack.  Iowa St. is 4-1 with its biggest victory at TCU last week, although that was a team without its starting QB. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Public 74% on Kansas St.; Iowa St. Seeing A Lot Sharp $ Action

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 6-1 ATS last 7 road games and 20-7 ATS last 27 conference games.  Cyclones are 4-1 ATS last 5 conference games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick: Iowa St +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St 24 / Iowa St 20

Game: Texas +3 at Oklahoma, O/U 61, 12pm on 10-13 (Neutral Location)

Analysis:  Texas is 4-1 and coming off of a 48-45 loss to West Virginia, a team that exposed its Defense just as Oklahoma St. and Ole Miss had in weeks prior.  Offensively Ash is a suitable QB and the running attack is strong, also a great Special Teams, but a liability on D, and this will be the toughest D it has faced this year.  Oklahoma got its swagger back last week on the road at Texas Tech with a dominating effort a week after losing to Kansas St.  Landry Jones has had success against Texas in the past and should continue against this D.  Texas could see a boost if RB Malcom Brown returns this week.  The Oklahoma offensive line has been inconsistent and Texas has a couple D-Linemen that can really pressure the QB.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 with 55% Public Bets Oklahoma; Steady Line

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 games at a Neutral site.  Sooners are 4-1 ATS last 5 Neutral site games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 games following a win. 

The Pick: Oklahoma -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31 / Texas 27

Game: Auburn +6 at Ole Miss, O/U 49, 12:20pm on 10-13

Analysis: Auburn fell to 1-4 last week and a team I have been down on all year with lousy QB play, and really shows how over-rated LSU is this year.  Auburn is allowing over 400 yards per game and Ole Miss will look to snap a streak of 16 straight SEC losses.  Auburn has yet to name its starting QB this week but with the O-Line allowing 8 sacks last week the issues are much deeper.  Ole Miss is 3-3 and suffered a heart-breaking 30-27 loss to Texas A&M last week.  Bo Wallace, Jeff Scott and Moncrief make this Rebels teams dangerous offensively and should put up big numbers Saturday.  Auburn has the 9th best kick return average in the nation which could help shift field position.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 74% Public Bets Ole Miss Pushing Line to -6 High with 1 Smart $ Bet on Auburn at +5

Bet Trends: Tigers are 11-5 ATS last 16 following a loss and 4-0 ATS last 4 following a double digit loss at home, so they respond well, but 0-4 ATS last 4 road games.  Rebels are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 2-8 ATS last 10 versus teams with losing records and 4-11 ATS in the SEC last 15.  Auburn is 6-2 ATS last 8 games at Ole Miss and 9-4 ATS overall, while the Home Team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Auburn +6 @ 2 Units - Feel the Public is Too Heavy on an Ole Miss team that has lost 16 straight SEC games

Predicted Score: Ole Miss 23 / Auburn 20

Game: Utah +10 at UCLA, O/U 53.5, 3pm on 10-13

Analysis: Utah is 2-3 and coming off their best performance of the season when they had USC on the ropes last Thursday but let it slip away, but has struggled on the road this year.  White at RB is Utah's only real bright spot on offense, while on Defense the D-Line and Linebackers make up one of the better front 7's in the Pac 12.  UCLA was terrible in a 31-6 loss at Cal last week and will look to get back on track after Freshman QB Hundley threw 4 interceptions and the team was in disarray, but the talent still there with RB Franklin averaging 7.5 yards per carry.  Utah's defense should be able to cause some turnovers that could make the difference in this game.

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and 71% Public Bets UCLA, Big Line Move to +10 Now

Bet Trends: Utah is 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a loss.  Bruins are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games, but 7-16 ATS last 23 PAC12 games. 

The Pick: Utah +10 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: UCLA 30 / Utah 24

Game: Fresno St. +7.5 at Boise St, O/U 57, 3:30pm on 10-13

Analysis: Fresno St. is 4-2 this season and its most impressive performance may have came in a loss, 42-25 to Oregon.  Fresno averages 315.5 yards passing per game and Carr at QB has 18 TDs in 6 games, while the RB Rouse is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.  Boise St. is 4-1 but really has struggled offensively with Kellen Moore and Doug Martin now playing on Sundays.  Fresno St. leads the country with 12 interceptions and also averaging 3.3 sacks per game, while the Broncos also have been opportunistic forcing 17 turnovers.  Boise St. has owned this series, but this is Fresno St's best chance to steal a win and solidify its top spot in the conference. 

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 64% of Public Bets Boise St Yet Line Moves Toward Fresno St., so Smart $ In Play

Bet Trends: Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS last 5 road games and 10-1 ATS last 11 games on turf.  Broncos are 2-7 ATS last 9 home games and 0-7 ATS last 7 conference games.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS last 12 meetings, and Fresno St. 1-10 ATS last 11 meetings. 

The Pick: Fresno St +7.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Fresno St. 34/ Boise St 31

Game: Stanford +7 at Notre Dame, O/U 44.5, 3:30pm on 10-13

Analysis: Stanford is 4-1 but its 1 loss came in its only road game.  The offense struggles at times which will be difficult against Notre Dame's great defense.  Stanford is solid on the defensive side of the ball too, so should see a low scoring game.  Notre Dame is 5-0 and handed it to Miami last week.  Stanford has won 3 straight vs. Notre Dame.  Stanford's run defense has started to look vulnerable and Notre Dame is finally getting its rushing attack going with Cierre Wood.  The QB's are both teams weak spot and likely comes down to who manages the game better.

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and 52% Public Bets Notre Dame; Line Dropping but No Sharp $ Action with Public Action Shifting to Stanford Late Week (was 72% Notre Dame)

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 9-1 ATS last 10 non-conf. games and 12-3-1 ATS last 16 road games.  Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall, but 0-5 ATS last 5 games following scoring 40+ points. 

The Pick: Notre Dame -7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Notre Dame 23 / Stanford 13

Game: West Virginia -4 at Texas Tech, O/U 77.5, 3:30pm on 10-13

Analysis: West Virginia cracked the Top 5 ranking and coming off a big win at Texas and now back on the road to play Texas Tech, a team that struggled last week against Oklahoma but can not be taken lightly.  Heisman-hopeful Geno Smith leads the Mountaineers awesome up-tempo offense that found a RB last week in Buie.  Texas Tech is 4-1, although its competition was questionable, but does have an explosive offense and much improved D.  Texas Tech matches up with WVU similar to Baylor who gave them a scare, and this game on the road for WVU. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 60% of Public Bets West Virginia and Now 85% of Public on West Virginia with Texas Tech Seeing Record Sharp $ Action and Line Down to -3.5 at Some Books

Bet Trends:  West Virginia is 5-1 ATS last 6 road games.  Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall, but 0-7 ATS last 7 home games vs. teams with a winning road record. 

The Pick:  Texas Tech +4 @ 1 Unit (System Play - Public (Squares) Heavy on WVU and Sharp $ on Texas Tech)

Predicted Score: West Virginia 52 / Texas tech 49

Game: Utah St. +3 at San Jose St., O/U 46.5, 4pm on 10-13

Analysis: One of the first times really looking at a WAC matchup and Utah St. is 4-2 and has beaten Utah and played Wisconsin tough, but looked miserable last week losing to BYU 6-3.  The Spartans are 4-1 and opened the season with a 3 point loss to Stanford.  San Jose St. sports a very fierce front 4 that should pressure the QB.  QB was the question for the Spartans into this season but Junior College transfer Fales has performed well and has the most talented group of WR's in the WAC as a supporting cast. 

Line Movement: Opened at 0 and 54% Public Bets Utah St

Bet Trends: Utah St. is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 overall.  San Jose St. is 13-3 ATS last 16 overall, but 8-20 ATS last 28 conference games and 3-13-1 ATS last 17 after a bye week. 

The Pick: San Jose St -3 @ 4 Units (Will Wait to See if Line Hits -2.5 Again)

Predicted Score: San Jose St. 20 / Utah St 13

Game: Florida -10 at Vanderbilt, O/U 40, 6pm on 10-13

Analysis: The Gators are rolling and coming off a huge win vs. LSU, but now on the road in what looks to be a potential trap game with South Carolina looming the following week and then Georgia.  Florida does not put up big offensive numbers but Gillislee is one of the best RBs in the nation and Driskel makes plays when needed and allows the D to shut down opposing offenses.  Vandy had high expectations into this season and beat Missouri last week, but Georgia dominated them 48-3, although they held their own opening the season at home with a 4 point loss to South Carolina.  Both teams have great kickers. 

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 85% of Public Bets Florida - Limited Line Moves

Bet Trends: Gators are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 following a game scoring less than 20 points.  Commodores are 9-1 ATS last 10 games at home and 9-4 ATS last 13 overall.  Gators are 5-2 ATS last 7 games in Vandy and road team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings. 

The Pick: Vandy +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Florida 20 / Vanderbilt 13

Game: TCU +7 at Baylor, O/U 68, 7pm on 10-13

Analysis: TCU took its first loss last week with QB Pachall leaving the team, a big loss being their top playmaker.  Baylor is coming off a bye week well-rested following its shootout against West Virginia where Florence looked impressive at QB and the Baylor offense continues to be fairly unstoppable. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 72% of Public Bets Baylor; Line as High as -9.5 and Slammed Back to -7

Bet Trends: Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS last 6 Big 12 games, but 24-9 ATS last 33 games after a ATS loss.  Bears are 9-1 ATS last 10 games at home and 6-2 ATS last 8 overall, but just 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a bye week.  TCU is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings vs. Baylor.

The Pick: Baylor -7 @ 3 Units (Would Love to See at 6.5 or Lower)

Predicted Score: Baylor 41 / TCU 27

Game: USC -13 at Washington, O/U 55.5, 7pm on 10-13

Analysis: The clear question into this one is will USC continue to struggle on the road and against a Huskies team that defeated Stanford at home.  USC has all the talent with Barley, Redd, Lee and Woods on offense, but often does not play up the their potential.  Washington allowed 500 yards and 52 points to Oregon last week and USC has similar weapons.  The Huskies O-Line has played poorly and USC has 3 players in the Top 12 for sacks in the Pac 12. 

Line Movement: Opened -13.5 and 54% of Public Bets Washington; Line Dipped to -11 Mid-Week and Pushed Right Back Up

Bet Trends: Trojans are 9-20 ATS last 29 games in October and 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 after allowing 40+ points in prior game and 7-2 ATS last 9 games at home, but just 1-6 ATS last 7 against teams with winning records.  Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 matchups, Underdog is 5-2 ATS last 7, and USC is 2-5 ATS last 7 meetings in Washington.

The Pick: Washington +13 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: USC 34 / Washington 27

Game: South Carolina +3 at LSU, O/U 39, 8pm on 10-13

Analysis: The Gamecocks looked like the best team in the country with a 35-7 win vs. Georgia and now must prove themselves on the road.  Shaw is making great plays at QB and Lattimore at RB, but the defense is stock full of NFL talent especially on the D-Line.  LSU's offense has struggled against Florida and Auburn and I see no reason why that will not continue.  LSU's defense will keep the game close, but South Carolina should come out on top with LSU's D having trouble stopping the run the past two games.  LSU has only lost 1 game in the Les Miles era at home on night games. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and 66% of Public Bets South Carolina

Bet Trends: Gamecocks are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall and 7-0 ATS last 7 games following a win.  Tigers are 7-3 ATS last 10 SEC games and 10-2 ATS last 12 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in previous game. 

The Pick:  South Carolina +3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: South Carolina 20 / LSU 13

Game: Tennessee +3 at Miss. St, O/U 57.5, 9pm on 10-13

Analysis: The Vols are coming off a bye week after a tough loss to Georgia where they were in the game the whole way.  Tennessee has a lot of offensive firepower with Bray, Neal, Hunter and Patterson, so the key will be how well the Bulldogs can contain them.  Miss. St. is quietly off to a 5-0 start but yet to get into the teeth of its SEC schedule, but ranks 11th in the Nation with just 13 points allowed per game led by a great secondary.  The Bulldogs +11 turnover margin this season likely comes into play in this one against a team where turnovers ruined the chance to upset Georgia. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 60% of Public Bets Miss. St.

Bet Trends: Vols are 4-9 ATS last 13 overall and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 vs. teams with winning records.  Miss. St. is 6-1 ATS last 7 SEC games and 6-2 ATS last 8 at home.  The Vols are 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. Miss. St. 

The Pick: Miss. St -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Miss. St 31 / Tenn. 27

Game: Oregon St. +6 at BYU, O/U 37.5, 3:30pm on 10-13

Analysis: This line initially makes no sense with Oregon St. ranked 10th in the country with some big wins under its belt, but QB Sean Mannion is out for this game so the Beavers will have to rely on their strong D.  The offense will be an issue with its passing attack ranked 8th in the Nation and just 120 yards per game on the ground ranked 106th.  BYU has home field advantage and ranks 3rd in the country in scoring D allowing 8.8 points per game and held Utah St to 3 last week and Boise St. to 7 two weeks prior, so the Under is a screaming play in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 75% of Public Bets Oregon St.

Bet Trends: Beavers are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 overall and 17-6-1 ATS last 24 road games.  Cougars are 10-3 ATS last 13 overall, 6-2 ATS at home, and 9-3 ATS last 12 non-conference games. 

The Pick:  Oregon St +6 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon St. 16 / BYU 13

Game: Iowa +10 at Michigan St., O/U 40.5, 12pm on 10-13

Analysis: Michigan St. has been improving offensively but I still am not a believer in the QB Maxwell, but Bell is a great RB.  They almost lost to Indiana and Eastern Michigan in the last 3 weeks but played Ohio St and Notre Dame well in loses.  This game should feature a lot of punting and will be unwatchable.  Iowa is just 3-2 but its two losses by a combined 4 points only allowing 17 points per game. 

Line Movement: Opened -11.5 and 58% of Public Bets Michigan St.

Bet Trends: Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall, 1-9 ATS last 10 road games and 1-11 ATS last 12 following a win.  Spartans are 0-4 ATS last 4 games at home, but 8-3 ATS last 11 games following a win.  Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Michigan St.

The Pick: Iowa +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Michigan St 20 / Iowa 17

Game: New Mexico -3 at Hawaii, O/U 53.5, 11:59pm on 10-13

Analysis: New Mexico is 3-3 and averaging 270 rushing yards per game and only lost by 3 to a ranked Boise St. team.  Hawaii is 1-4 and was shut out by BYU 2 weeks ago and only scored 14 vs. SD St. last week.  Hawaii's offense that use to be known for putting up points does not even rank in the Top 100 this year in any offensive category.  This experienced Lobos team with 22 Seniors should handle business on the road.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 66% of Public Bets New Mexico; Steady Line

Bet Trends: Lobos are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall.  Warriors are 1-6 ATS last 7 overall and 0-6 ATS last 6 home games. 

The Pick: New Mexico -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: New Mexico 37 / Hawaii 23

Other Games of Note: (Unlikely to Play Unless Favorable Line Move)

Wisconsin +2.5 at Purdue

Temple +5.5 at UCONN

UNC +7.5 at Miami

Maryland +1 at Virginia

Air Force -3 at Wyoming

Kentucky +17.5 at Arkansas

Texas A&M -8 at Louisiana Tech

Duke +10 at Virginia Tech