College Football Week 8 Preview and Picks

Game: South Carolina +3.5 at Florida, O/U 42, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: South Carolina is coming off its first loss of the year that hurts its chanced to play in the National Championship game.  Star RB Lattimore is questionable for the game with a hip injury that could be a big loss.  Florida is 6-0 and beat the LSU team that South Carolina lost to, although at home.  The other element in play here is that Spurrier returns to Florida.  Florida has a great D ranked 20th in the nation and will look to force Shaw to beat them through the air.  The Gators will look to get Gillislee the ball after LSU had some success running the ball on the Gamecocks last week and the Gators have a better QB than LSU and should be able to move the ball through the air as well.  Special Teams could play a major factor with Ace Sanders returning kicks for South Caroline, but Florida has a great Kicker for a game that could see a lot of FG attempts.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 51% of Public Bets Florida

Bet Trends: Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS last 10 road games and 6-0 ATS last 6 overall.  Gators are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games, but just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games.  Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. Florida and the home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 matchups.  Florida is 4-12 ATS last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.

The Pick:  Florida -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Florida 23 / South Carolina 17

Game: Michigan St. +9.5 at Michigan, O/U 43, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis:  Michigan St. has lost 2 of its last 3 and despite having a strong D and great RB the QB play has been too inconsistent.  Michigan will be looking to take out some revenge this week with the Spartans owning the recent series.  The Wolverines have lost to Alabama and Notre Dame this season, two of the better teams, and dominated recent opponents.  Denard Robinson is a dual threat and should give the Spartans fits.  I think Michigan St really struggles to move the ball and Michigan makes a few explosive plays.

Line Movement: Opened at -11.5 and 64% of Public Bets Michigan St. Pushing Line Down to 9.5 but would not surprise me to see Sharps bid this back up. 

Bet Trends: Spartans are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, but 3-8 ATS last 11 after scoring less than 20 points in the prior game.  Wolverines are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games, but 9-24 ATS last 33 conference games.  Spartans are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings, but the favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 matchups.

The Pick:  Michigan -9 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Michigan 27 / Michigan St. 13

Game: LSU -3.5 at Texas A&M, O/U 52.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis: LSU won a big home game last week but has struggled on the road this season and 0-4 at College Station over the last few years.  The offense is limited because of poor QB play, but a trio of RB's that grind and wear on teams late in games.  A&M has the best offense in the SEC in terms of piling up yards and points, but has allowed a ton of points the last 2 games as well.  Manziel is an exciting player on offense and his quickness could keep plays alive for A&M to find some holes in the LSU D that ranks 3rd in the Nation on pass D.  A&M will be pumped for this game to show they belong in the SEC's elite, and LSU may lack the energy to stay with A&M. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 70% of Public Bets LSU Pushing Spread to 3.5 with A&M Seeing Some Sharp $ Activity

Bet Trends: Tigers are 6-2 ATS last 8 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 conference games.  Aggies are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 conference games and 1-10 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams. 

The Pick:  Texas A&M +3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: LSU 24 / Texas A&M 27

Game: Baylor +8 at Texas, O/U 81, 8pm on 10-20

Analysis:  Baylor takes its' top ranked passing offense on the road to face a team that has been unable to stop anyone, although Baylor is allowing 41.6 points per game as well.  Texas has lost two straight, although to West Virginia and Oklahoma, two powerhouse teams.  The Texas offense should have little issue moving the ball, but it will come down to being able to make a few stops.  Texas lost its best defensive player in Jeffcoat for the season which is a big blow.  Baylor turned the ball over 6 times last week and can't afford to do that this week if they want to win 3 straight vs. Texas for the first time.  Texas will have no answer for Terrance Williams at WR and Baylor could easily pull the upset in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and Pushed Down to -8.5 with 56% of Public on Baylor and Some Sharp $ as Well to Move the Line that Hard

Bet Trends: Bears are 1-6 ATS last 7 road games and 8-20 ATS last 28 following a double-digit loss at home.  Longhorns are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 home games and 2-13-1 ATS last 16 after rushing for less than 100 yards in its prior game.  Baylor is 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Texas and road team in 10-04 ATS last 14 matchups. 

The Pick: Baylor +8 @ 2 Units (+11 Available Early in Week a Much Better Play)

Predicted Score: Texas 45 / Baylor 42

Game: Texas Tech -2 at TCU, O/U 55, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The 5-1 Red Raiders are coming off a 49-14 thrashing of WVU and getting zero respect from the lines-makers this week.  Texas Tech has a much improved D that held the Nation's most explosive offense to 14 points, and an offense led by Seth Doege who can throw as well as anyone.  TCU is also 5-1 and life without WB Pachall has not been bad, beating Baylor 49-21 last week with the D forcing turnovers.  TCU has forced 20 turnovers and Doege threw 5 INT's combined in two games versus Iowa St and Oklahoma.  Texas Tech should provide a challenge for new Freshman QB Boykin this week. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 66% of Public Bets Texas Tech, Steady Line but Feels Like Sharps are Keeping this Below 3

Bet Trends: Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall and 6-2 ATS last 8 road games.  TCU is 2-5 ATS last 7 conference games. 

The Pick:  TCU +2.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: TCU 24 / Texas Tech 20

Game: Rutgers -5.5 at Temple, O/U 41.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis: Rutgers is 6-0 and now ranked 15th in the Nation but yet to face much competition.  Temple has won 2 straight close ones vs. South Florida and UCONN and relies on running the ball, but Rutgers excels at stopping the run.  Temple's D gets pressure on the QB, ranked 10th in sacks, but Rutgers has only allowed 3 sacks all season.  Rutgers seems to match strengths with Temple and has the better D.  Jamison should be able to run the ball effectively for Rutgers with Temple struggling to stop the run most of the year. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and -4.5 to -6 Range at Books and 77% of Public Bets Rutgers, the Road Favorite but Early Sharp $ Signals on Temple

Bet Trends: Scarlet Knights are 15-7-1 ATS last 23 on the road and 5-1 ATS last 6 Big East games.  Owls are 13-3 ATS last 16 Big East games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams. 

The Pick: Rutgers -5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Rutgers 24 / Temple 17

Game: Kansas St. +2.5 at West Virginia, O/U 73.5, 7pm on 10-20

Analysis: Kansas St is 6-0 and now ranked 4th nationally but really should have lost last week vs. Iowa St.  Klein is a winner and makes plays at the right time and the Defense always shows up to play, but will face its toughest test of the season this week, and so far K-St has played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  West Virginia is coming off a terrible loss at Texas Tech but should respond this week at home and bounce back.  However, Geno Smith struggled against a ranked D and only has performed well against defenses ranked 100+ and his Heisman hopes may rely on this game.  K-St's D is very similar to Texas Tech in that it does not allow big plays that WVU thrives on. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Sharp $ Hit K-St. Hard Down to 2.5/3 with K-St also seeing 55% of Public Bets.  The Under is popular with sharp betters.

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 road games and 19-6-1 ATS last 26 conference games.  Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 2-11 ATS last 13 home games against teams with winning road records.   

The Pick:  Kansas St +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 30 / WVU 27

Game: Virginia Tech +8 at Clemson, O/U 61.5, 12pm on 10-20

Analysis:  V-Tech came back and beat Duke 41-20 after losing 3 of 4 and has really looked bad most of the season and just lost the starting center for the season.  Clemson is coming off a bye week well rested and at home with a great offense, but defensive struggles.  Clemson tore up the Hokies D last year and this year Clemson's offense is better and the Hokies D is worse.  V-Tech's only hope is to control the clock and did get the ground attack finally going last week.

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and 72% of Public Bets Clemson and Small Sharp Action on VT

Bet Trends: Hokies are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall and 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road.  Tigers are 4-0 ATS last 4 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Hokies are 5-2 ATS last 7 matchups with Clemson and underdog is 4-0 ATS. 

The Pick: Clemson -8 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Clemson 52 / Virginia Tech 31

Game: Stanford -2.5 at Cal, O/U 48.5, 3pm on 10-20

Analysis: Stanford is coming off a game where they feel they were robbed at Notre Dame.  The D continues to play well but they are 0-2 on the road, and QB Nunes is too inconsistent, but Taylor the offensive focal point running the ball.  Cal is 3-4 and has been up and down all season, but has played ranked teams well.  Stanford could come out flat after last week's loss and is beaten up after a physical game, and Cal needs to make some big plays through the air, also with an inconsistent QB in Maynard, but a top WR in the nation in Keenan Allen.  Nunes has yet to throw a TD on the road this season. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and Steady but 83% of Public Bets Stanford and Cal Seeing a ton of Smart $ Activity

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 13-2-1 ATS last 16 road games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 games following a loss.  Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 after a win.  Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs. Cal and road team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Cal +3 @ 3 Units (Money-Line Attractive)

Predicted Score: Cal 20 / Stanford 17

Game: NC St. -3.5 at Maryland, O/U 45, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: NC State is 4-2 and coming off a bye after upsetting FSU at home.  With Glennon at QB the Wolfpack have a NFL-caliber QB and the Defense is also stout with star CB Amerson.  Maryland is also 4-2 and 2-0 in the ACC and a team that I have been impressed with, especially on defense.  Maryland "held" West Virginia to 31 points on the road and should limit NC St. offensively ranked 18th nationally against the pass.  Maryland has little running game and has a Freshman QB that has to face a very good secondary. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 53% of Public Bets NC St. but Line Down to 3/3.5 Shows Smart $ on Maryland

Bet Trends: Wolfpack are 0-3-1 ATS last 4 road games.  Terrapins are 3-10 ATS last 13 overall and 0-9 ATS last 9 home games.  Home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.  

The Pick:  NC St. -3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: NC St. 24 / Maryland 17

Game: Cincinnati -7.5 at Toledo, O/U 64.5, 7pm on 10-20

Analysis:  The 5-0 Bearcats interrupt their Big East schedule to play to 6-1 Rockets of the MAC.  The Bearcats have looked good, a great aggressive D, and Legaux a playmaker at QB with a strong running game with Winn as well, but the strength of schedule is just not there and has to be careful not to overlook this game with a key matchup vs. Louisville next week.  Toledo has a dangerous passing attack that will stretch the Bearcats D, and the Rockets have won 6 straight with the loss starting the year on the road at Arizona and coming in Overtime.  Toledo has fared well against ranked teams at home in the past and this game as upset potential. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 with Public Split 50/50 and Line -6.5/-7 at Books so Shop Around Depending on What Side You Want

Bet Trends: Bearcats are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the MAC.  Rockets are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big East opponents and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall. 

The Pick:  Toledo +7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cincinnati 45 / Toledo 38

Game: Penn St. +3 at Iowa, O/U 42.5, 8pm on 10-20

Analysis: Penn St has won 4 in a row and coming off a bye week after beating ranked Northwestern.  McGloin looks good at QB and the D ranks 15th in point against.  Iowa is coming off a big OT win at Michigan St. and also stands at 4-2 with defense leading the way.  Iowa's running game is hurting with injuries leaving it to Freshman Garmon.  This should be a very low scoring game although Penn St has the QB advantage I think the solid kicking game of Iowa plays a big part, while Penn St. can barely make extra points let alone FG's.

Line Movement: Opened +2 and 68% of Public Bets Penn St but Line Up to 3 so Sharps on Iowa. 

Bet Trends: Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall, but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 vs. teams with winning records.  Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS last 8 following a win.  Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and Penn St. is just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. Iowa.

The Pick:  Iowa -2.5 @ 3 Units (wait for Line to Drop) or Penn St. +3.5

Predicted Score: Iowa 16 / Penn St. 10

Game: San Diego St. +6.5 at Nevada, O/U 66.5, 10:35pm on 10-20

Analysis: A Mountain-West matchup with the 4-2 Aztecs visiting the 6-1 Wolfpack.  SD St. has lost games to Washington, San Jose St, and Fresno St and wins are against low quality teams, but average 225 yards a game rushing.  Nevada averages 285 yards per game rushing, 6th in the country and led by dual threat QB Fajardo (back from injury) and one of the better RB's Jefferson.  San Diego St. has some NFL talent with Tight End Escobar and Cornerback McFadden. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Steady with 56% of Public Betting Nevada

Bet Trends: Aztecs are 1-10 ATS last 11 following a game of rushing for 200+ yards and 4-9 ATS last 13 after an ATS win.  Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games, but 1-6 ATS last 7 home games and 1-8-1 ATS last 10 following a win.

The Pick: Nevada -6.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Nevada 41 / San Diego St. 27

Game: South Florida +6 at Louisville, O/U 52.5, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The Bulls have lost 4 straight and are coming off a bye week trying to turn things around with a very capable QB in Daniels.  Louisville is 6-0 and ranked 14th in the nation lead by Teddy Bridgewater at QB, but 4 straight tight games against low quality teams.  South Florida is last against the run in the Big East and Louisville RB Perry scored 4 TD's last wek vs. a much better Pitt D. 

Line Movement: Opened -8 and 75% of Public Bets Louisville but Line Down to 6 with Sharp $ Active

Bet Trends: Bulls are 8-20 ATS last 28 conference games and 3-12 ATS last 15 overall.  Cardinals are 8-1 ATS last 9 conference games, but 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. teams with losing records. 

The Pick:  Louisville -6 @ 2 Units (It's a Square Play and Against the Smart $, but Louisville a Much Better Team)

Predicted Score: Louisville 45 / South Florida 27

Game: Nebraska -7 at Northwestern, O/U 61, 3:30pm on 10-20

Analysis: The 4-2 Cornhuskers are coming off a bye week after Ohio St put 63 on them and off to a rough start to the season.  Nebraska averages nearly 300 yards a game rushing with Abdullah, Martinez, and Burkhead.  Northwestern is 18th in the country running the ball but its toughest test this year at Penn St ended in an 11 point loss. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Steady with 57% of Public Betting Nebraska with Smart $ Grabbing Line at -4 and Pushing to -6.5 and if gets to 7 expect buybacks

Bet Trends: Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS last 7 after allowing 40+ points in a game but 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games.  Wildcats are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home, 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, but 6-13 ATS last 19 conference games. 

The Pick: Northwestern +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Northwestern 31 / Nebraska 27