Game: Falcons -3 at Redskins, O/U 51.5, 1pm
on 10-7
Analysis: The Falcons needed a comeback
victory to stay undefeated last week and on the road this week to face the
Redskins who also pulled off a late game victory last week at Tampa. The Falcons offense is firing on all
cylinders and unlikely the Skins can do much to stop them, so the key to this
game is how the Falcons handle RG3.
Atlanta is allowing 146 rushing yards per game and the Skins lead the
league with 171 yards per game rushing and RG3 very similar to Can Newton who
the Falcons struggled against last week.
On the other hand the Redskins are last against the pass so Matt Ryan is
due for another big game.
Line Movement: Opened -3 and 64% Public Bets Falcons; Steady Line with
Limited Sharp $ Activity
Bet Trends: Falcons are 21-8-1 ATS last 30 games following an ATS
loss. Redskins are 2-6 ATS last 8 at
home and 1-4 ATS last 5 following a win.
Skins are 2-4 ATS last 6 versus the Falcons.
The Pick: Falcons -3 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Falcons 34 / Redskins 27
Game: Eagles +3 at Steelers, O/U 43, 1pm on
10-7
Analysis: The Steelers should be well rested
into this game and hungry to get back to .500, ranked 3rd in the league in pass
defense, but on offense very 1-dimensional this season without a ground
attack. The Steelers will get back
Mendenhall, Harrison, and Polamalu for this game, so that is a huge boost. This is also bad news for Michael Vick who
the Eagles have been unable to protect.
The Eagles somehow sit 3-1 despite all of their struggles and have a
balanced offense/defense, ranked near the league's top 10 in all
categories. The 3 Eagle wins have come
by a combined 4 points.
Line Movement: Opened -3 and 68% of Public Bets Steelers; Steady Line
with No Sharp $ Activity
Bet Trends: Eagles are 0-3-1 ATS last 4 overall and 2-6 ATS versus
teams with a losing record. Steelers are
9-0 ATS last 9 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS last 6 coming off a bye week,
and 9-3 ATS last 12 at home. Steelers
are 2-4 ATS last 6 games against the Eagles.
The last 10 games the Steelers were a favorite of 4 or less points, all
have resulted in the Over.
The Pick: Steelers -3 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Steelers 27 / Eagles
20
Game: Packers -7 at Colts, O/U 4, 1pm on 10-7
Analysis: The Colts are coming off a bye
week and have a bit more to play for this week with the recent news that they
will be without their head coach for awhile.
The Colts started the season with a 20 point loss at home to the Bears,
a team the Packers handled easily 23-10.
Andrew Luck had a bye week to look over his first few performances and
is improving each week. The Packers have
not looked as dominant as many expected, but not a team to take lightly. The Colts defense is riddles with injuries
without Davis, King, Angerer and possibly Mathis/Freeney and it is unlikely
they can keep up with the Packers offensive output.
Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 80% of Public Bets Packers; Sharp $
Activity on Colts
Bet Trends: Packers are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 10-1 ATS last 11
following an ATS loss. Colts are 4-1 ATS
last 5 after a bye week, but 5-11 ATS last 16 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings
between these teams. Green Bay is 2-5
ATS last 7 games at Indy.
The Pick: Packers -7 @ 2 Units (prefer to
grab -6.5, offered at CRIS)
Predicted Score: Packers 34 / Colts 23
Game: Browns +9.5 at Giants, O/U 44, 1pm on
10-7
Analysis: The Browns were able to stick with
the Ravens last week to cover and had extra time to prepare and rest for this
week's game, but the team still ranks near the bottom in the league both
offensively and defensively. They have
lost by 1, 7, and 7 to the Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens, so the schedule has
been tough and stays that way this week.
The Giants will be without Nicks again this week, but should not play a
major factor against the Browns D, but some injuries on the O-Line are a
concern. Weeden is averaging 42 passing
attempts a game and if the Browns WR's would hold onto the ball his numbers
would be in line with the other rookies, and the Giants secondary is
exploitable. The Giants also gave up 5.3
yards per attempt rushing last week so Richardson could establish the Browns
offense.
Line Movement: Opened -10.5 with 62% of Public Bets Giants; Line has
Moved Lower with some Sharp $ Activity
Bet Trends: Browns are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 road games and 10-2 ATS
last 12 after throwing for 250+ yards in prior game, and also 6-1-1 ATS last 8
as an underdog. Giants are 7-2-1 ATS
last 10 overall but just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home versus teams with losing road
records, and 3-6-1 ATS last 10 at home overall.
The Pick: Browns +9.5 @ 1 Unit (Prefer +10,
Shop Around and Up to 2 Units)
Predicted Score: Giants 30 / Browns 23
Game: Dolphins +3.5 at Bengals, O/U 45, 1pm
on 10-7
Analysis: Miami is 1-3 with 2 straight
overtime losses and not a team to take lightly.
The rookie QB is coming along and Bush is always a threat running the
ball. The defense is #1 versus the run
and 30th versus the pass, but did a great job last week of getting pressure on
the QB. The Bengals happen to have an
elite passing game, but defensively have struggled to stop the run, but have
won 3 straight against subpar opponents.
The Bengals pass D should improve with the return of Clements and Hall
at CB and play a factor.
Line Movement: Opened -5.5 with 73% of Public Betting Bengals but Line
Down Says Smart $ Bets Dolphins
Bet Trends: Dolphins are 8-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
and 11-3 ATS last 14 overall, also 23-9-1 ATS last 33 road games. Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 home games, but
6-1-2 ATS last 9 vs. teams with a losing record. Road team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and
Bengals are 2-7 ATS last 9 games against Miami.
The Pick: Dolphin +3.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 / Bengals
21
Game: Ravens -6.5 at Chiefs, O/U 47, 1pm on
10-7
Analysis: Chiefs are coming off an ugly
performance against San Diego where they turned the ball over way too often and
sit at 1-3 with the best rushing offense in the NFL. Baltimore is well rested for this game and
has turned into an air attack with the 4th ranked passing offense and Flacco enjoying
all of his weapons. Baltimore has an opportunistic
defense and the Chiefs have a propensity for turnovers so this game could get
out of hand with the Ravens better at every position breakdown.
Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Dipped to -4 and then Smart $ Took It
to -6.5 with 81% of Public Betting Ravens as Road Favorites
Bet Trends: Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5
road games and 13-6-1 ATS last 20 following an ATS loss. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games. Favorite is 5-2 ATS and Road Team 5-1 ATS in
recent meetings.
The Pick: Ravens -6.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Ravens 37 / Chiefs 20
Game: Seahawks +3 at Panthers, O/U 43, 4:05pm
on 10-7
Analysis: Seattle continues to struggle on
the road and could be set to make a QB change with a non-existent offense other
than Lynch and his power running. The
defense is capable of winning games single-handedly and needs to step up big
this way and its speed and athleticism should help contain Cam Newton. The Panthers are 26th against the run so the
first concern is that Lynch will have a big week. Carolina lost a tough one last week and
played an elite team down to the wire, so the potential is there if the defense
can step it up. Chris Gamble and Jon
Beason have missed practice and could be a blow to the Panthers defense. Russell Wilson is under a lot of scrutiny and
I feel he is a player that responds well, so look for a bounce back and give
the Hawks a chance to win this one.
Line Movement: Opened -3 and 57% of Public Bets Carolina with No Major
Line Moves and No Real Sharp $ Activity
Bet Trends: Seahawks are 17-37-2 ATS last 56 road games. Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 following a
loss. Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5
meetings.
The Pick: Seahawks +3 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Seahawks 23 / Panthers
20
Game: Bears -5.5 at Jaguars, O/U 41, 4:05 pm
on 10-7
Analysis: Bears come in 3-1 but still with plenty
of questions and after playing a Monday night game in Dallas have to go back on
the road, so could show some fatigue.
The Bears are 3rd against the rush which happens to be the Jags
offensive strong point, and the matchup likely sees the Jaguars struggle to
score. Jacksonville is 30th against the
run so a heavy dose of Bush/Forte should help the Bears take pressure off
Cutler and his dumb mistakes.
Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and 85% of Public Betting Bears; Line as
Lows as -3.5
Bet Trends: Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 6-2 ATS last 8
following a win. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS
last 5 games following a loss and 5-16-1 ATS last 22 against winning record
teams. Home Team is 5-0 ATS last 5
meetings.
The Pick: Bears -5.5 @ 4 Units
Predicted Score: Bears 27 / Jaguars 13
Game: Broncos +7.5 at Patriots, O/U 52,
4:25pm on 10-7
Analysis: Denver is 2-2 and the 2 losses
were against the NFL's best teams in the Texans and Falcons, and 6 point losses
in each. Broncos are a balanced run/pass
team and rank 9th against the run and 13th against the pass. Pats have struggled at times this season and
if they get down against Denver early they will not have an easy time coming
back. Dumervil and Von Miller are the
key to stopping the Pats and need to get pressure on Brady, and speed rushers
have had success against New England.
Three is a 60% chance of rain at this game.
Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 52% of Public Bets Patriots; Lien
Offered in -6.5 to -7.5 Range at Different Books
Bet Trends: Broncos are 3-7 ATS last 10 overall and 8-23-1 ATS last
32 games after scoring more than 30 in the prior game. Pats are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. the AFC but just
2-5 ATS last 7 home games. Broncos are
5-2 ATS last 7 games in New England, but the Home Team and Favorite are 5-2 ATS
last 7 meetings.
The Pick: Denver +7.5 @ 1 Unit
Predicted Score: Pats 31 / Broncos 27
Game: Titans +5.5 at Vikings, O/U 44, 4:25pm
on 10-7
Analysis: The Titans come in 1-3 and have
lost by more than 20 points in each of those games, and come into this game on
the road without Jake Locker, but the Veteran Hasselbeck could add a spark and
Chris Johnson finally got going last week.
Titans D has been a weakness ranked 27th against the pass and run. The last time the Vikings were at home they
dominated the 49ers and rank 14th against the pass and 7th against the
run. Ponder is doing a great job of
managing games, nothing spectacular, but this week has a favorable matchup to
make some plays. The special teams
accounted for 2 TD's last week and the Titans have a strong special teams unit
as well. The Titans have allowed 39
catches and 396 yards to Tight Ends and have a mis-match this week with pass-catching
specialist Rudolph on the Vikings.
Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 65% of Public Betting the Vikings;
Tennessee has Drawn a Few Smart $ Plays and Line Lower than It Opened
Bet Trends: Titans are 1-7 ATS last 8 games and 1-4-1 ATS last 6 on
the road. Vikings are 4-7-1 ATS last 12
and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home. Titans are
20-7 ATS last 27 after scoring less than 15 points in prior game. Vikings are 4-10 ATS last 14 after an ATS
win.
The Pick: Vikings -5.5 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Vikings 23 / Titans 16
Game: Bills +9.5 a San Francisco, O/U 45,
4:25pm on 10-7
Analysis: The 49ers answered their first
loss of the year with a 34-0 beat down of the Jets, a team that beat the Bills
by 20 to open the season. 49ers D is 5th
against the pass and 6th against the run and will likely force Fitzpatrick to
try and beat them, and he has been inconsistent and giving the ball away to
defenses. The Bills have a strong
rushing attack with Jackson and Spiller but this will be the first test against
an elite D. On Defense the Bills are
28th against the run and 23rd against the pass.
The 49ers are not the type of team to blow teams out, but should have
little problem running away with this game.
Line Movement: Opened -10 and 72% of Public Bets
49ers; Line Offered -9.5 to -11.5 at Different Books
Bet Trends: Bills are 4-9 ATS last 13 overall and 2-6-1 ATS last 9
road games. 49ers are 15-5-1 ATS last 21
games on grass, 20-7-3 ATS last 30 at home and 18-7-1 ATS last 26 overall. 49ers are 8-24-4 ATS last 36 games following
a win of 14+.
The Pick: 49ers -9.5 @ Bills @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: 49ers 30 / Bills 17
Game: Chargers +3.5 at Saints, O/U 52.5,
8:20pm on 10-7
Analysis: It is unusual to see a team as a
3.5 point favorite at 0-4, but the public loves the Saints still although the
team has looked terrible last week provided some signs of improvement. Saints rank last against the run and 24th
against the pass and also rank 26th rushing the ball on offense. Saints will be without Lance Moore in this
one who makes a lot of plays for them.
Chargers are 3-1 with the only loss coming against the Falcons, so no
slow start this year. The Chargers like
to take shots down field and the Saints have giving up a ton of big plays this
season.
Line Movement: Opened -4 and 64% of Public Betting Saints; No Line
Movement, -3 to -4 Range and No Sharp $ Action
Bet Trends: Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6 against losing record teams
and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Saints
are 11-2 ATS last 13 games on turf and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home, but 1-4 ATS
last 5 games overall. Saints are 2-4 ATS
last 6 games vs. Chargers.
The Pick: Chargers +3.5 @ 3 Units
Predicted Score: Chargers 34 / Saints
31
Game: Texans -9 at Jets, O/U 41, 8:30pm on
10-8
Analysis: The Jets are in shambles and rank
near last in the league at stopping the run with Arian Foster and Ben Tate
coming to town. The offense has been
unable to do anything and we could see more Tebow this week. The Texans have handled their business this
season although the schedule could be questioned. They are 2nd against the pass and the Jets
lost Santonio Holmes last week and have no threats on the outside. The Texans have not seen a lot of national
media attention the last few years and will look to make a statement on Monday Night
Football. Andre Johnson should have an
advantage with Revis out for the Jets and New York has been unable to get off
the field on 3rd downs. Although it is
tough to bet against a big home underdog on MNF the Texans are simply too good
for the Jets and this could get ugly fast.
Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 81% of Public Bets Texans and Now
Steady at -9 with -10 offered at Some Books; Jets are Drawing Some Action but
from Underperforming Books after Smart $ was Burnt by the Jets last Week
Bet Trends: Texans are 10-1-1 ATS last 12 after a win and 7-1 ATS
last 8 on the road, but 0-7 ATS last 7 games in Week 5. Jets are 3-7 ATS last 10 after a double-digit
loss at home and 2-5 ATS last 7 overall.
Texans are 1-4 ATS last 5 against the Jets.
The Pick: Texans -9 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Texans 34 / Jets 13
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