NFL Week 6 Betting Preview/Picks

Game: Bengals -2 at Browns, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: The 0-5 Browns will look to get their first win and lost in Week 2 34-27 in Cincinnati, but have looked better the last two weeks with a strong start against the Giants and tough game against the Ravens.  Weeden has not played all that badly, a few rookie mistakes, but the WR's have dropped a ton of important passes, while Richardson is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but making some nice plays.  The Browns D has been the problem and ranks 25th vs. the pass and 27th vs. the run, but will get star corner Joe Haden back this week.  The Bengals lost at home vs. the Dolphins last week after a 3 game win streak, but yet to beat a good team.  The running game took a hit with Scott done for the year, but Dalton to Green combo remains one of the league's best, although AJ hobbled this week at practice with a knee injury and Haden has shut him down in previous matchups. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 but Dropped Early and -1, -2 and -3 Offered at Some Books with 74% of Public Betting Bengals and Most of the Sharp $ on the Browns

Bet Trends: Bengals are 8-3-2 ATS last 13 road games but 1-8-2 ATS last 11 games vs. AFC opponents and 0-5-2 ATS in the division.  Browns are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 in the division and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 overall, but 3-9-2 ATS last 14 home games.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings.

The Pick: Browns +3 @ 1 Unit (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Bengals 28 / Browns 27

Game: Colts +3 at NY Jets, O/U 43, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis:  The Colts are coming off a big upset win against the Packers and head to New York for just their 2nd road game of the season, the first being a 41-21 loss to the Bears.  Andrew Luck and the Colts have the 6th ranked passing offense and also 13th against the pass on D, but struggling to stop the run.  The Jets are 2-3 and need this game badly, coming off a short week and a loss to the Texans, and getting back two weapons for Sanchez with Keller and Stephen Hill, but really must establish a running game.  The Jets D ranks 5th against the pass and 31st against the run, so the Colts should try a new game plan, but will be without starting RB Brown and in steps the rookie Ballard.  Rex Ryan should have a plan to confuse the rookie QB and try and rely on the D to get the team back to .500. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 57% of Public Betting Colts

Bet Trends:  Colts are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games and 0-12 ATS vs. teams with losing records.  Jets are 12-4-1 ATS last 17 Sunday games following a game on Monday night.  Colts are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. Jets and 1-4-1 ATS last in New York.

The Pick:  Jets -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:  Jets 20 / Colts 16

Game: Chiefs +4 at Buccaneers, O/U 40, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: The 1-4 Chiefs head on the road with backup QB Brady Quinn taking the helm, and what was lost in last week's 9-6 loss to one of the NFL's top teams, the Ravens, was how well the team ran the ball and played Defense, with much of the focus on how the classless KC fans reacted to the Cassel injury.  KC will definitely be relying on the ground attack this week on the road and defensively ranks 8th against the pass.  Tampa is 1-3 and coming off a bye week, and has played quality teams like the Giants and Cowboys down to the wire.  Offensively the Bucs have yet to get things going, 29th passing and 23rd rushing.  The D has a strength vs. strength matchup with Tampa 4th best against the run, but dead last against the pass.  Tampa is +3 in turnover differential and the Chiefs are the league's worst at -15. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Pushed to -4.5 Highs with Sharps on the Bucs and 65% of the Public on the Bucs

Bet Trends: Chiefs are 6-2 ATS last 8 games following a loss.  Bucs are 5-1 ATS last 6 following a bye week, but just 4-10 ATS last 14 overall and 7-22 ATS last 29 home games.  Chiefs are 8-2 ATS last 10 non-conference games.

The Pick: Chiefs +4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bucs 17 / Chiefs 16

Game: Raiders +9 at Falcons, O/U 48.5, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: The Raiders are 1-3 and coming off a bye week after an embarrassing performance against the Broncos where the injuries to the secondary really hurt, but the offense was a mess as well.  The Raiders get back Heyward-Bey at WR and need to get McFadden going, ranked 32nd in the league in rushing with the best RB in the NFL is unacceptable as the team tries to learn this zone blocking scheme.  Atlanta is rolling at 5-0 but has been in 3 games decided by 7 or less points, ranked 8th on passing offense and 7th against the pass, but 28th against the run should give the Raiders an opportunity to control the clock.  I see no way that the Raiders can cover Jones, White, and Gonzalez, and expect the Falcons to put up 30+ points.  The Raiders have lost their first two home games by a combined 51 points. 

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and Steady with 78% Public Betting Falcons

Bet Trends: Raiders are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings between these teams.

The Pick: Falcons -9 @ 2 Units (The Over Looks Attractive)

Predicted Score: Falcons 34 / Raiders 20

Game: Cowboys +3.5/4 at Ravens, O/U 44, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: Dallas is 2-2 and coming off a bye and looked bad in their last outing at home against the Bears, and really have looked bad all season.  They do rank 1st against the pass, and 4th on passing offense, but 30th running the ball and need to focus on getting Murray the ball early and often to win games.  Baltimore has not looked great recently either with squeaker wins vs. the Browns and Chiefs, two of the NFL's worst teams.  Romo has already thrown 8 interceptions and continues to draw deserved criticism.  The Cowboys do come in much healthier with Ratliff and Spencer returning to the D. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and 60% of Public Bets Ravens

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 1-5 ATS last 6 overall and 2-5 ATS last 7 road games.  Ravens are 1-5 ATS last 6 home games, but 11-5 ATS last 16 after scoring less than 15 points in a game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Baltimore is 4-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Pick:  Ravens -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 27 / Cowboys 20

Game: Lions +3.5 at Eagles, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: The 1-3 Lions are seeing a lot of attention with this line move as people are expecting them to "right this ship."  Detroit's offense relies on the pass, ranked 2nd, and defensively have actually fared well, although yet to face any real offensive powerhouses.  The 3-2 Eagles lost a tough one to Pittsburgh last week and Vick's turnover issues remain at center stage.  The Eagles need to change-up the play calls and get McCoy more involved.  The Eagles have plenty off pass-rushers and if the Lions are pass-happy they will lose.  The Eagles like to play man coverage, which is a bad idea against Calvin Johnson.  I think Vick corrects his issues and puts the nail in the Lions coffin for the season, although the Eagles 3 wins have all come by 2 point or less margins. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and Money Pushed Line Lower with 57% of Public on Detroit; Offered from -3 to -4 at Books

Bet Trends: Lions are 3-12-1 ATS last 16 overall and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 road games.  Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS last 13 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick:  Eagles -3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Eagles 27 / Lions 23

Game: Rams +4.5 at Dolphins, O/U 38, 1pm on 10-14

Analysis: The 3-2 Rams had some extra rest after playing last Thursday and the Defense looked dominating with a great pass rush  The offense still is in trouble, ranking 30th passing and now without best WR Amendola, and Rams are 0-2 on the road this season.  Dolphins are 2-3, but a better team than the record indicates with two OT losses due to kicking issues.  The Dolphins ranks 1st defensively against the run and have Cameron Wake on the outside generating a pass rush.  The Dolphins offense has looked sharp at times as well and Reggie Bush is running with purpose, while Tannehill has impressed as a rookie QB.  The Rams will struggle to score against this Dolphins D, but do have a great rookie kicker.

Line Movement: Opened -3 but Miami $ Pushes to -4.5 and -5 at Some Books Although 51% of Public Bets Rams

Bet Trends: Rams are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but just 2-10 ATS last 12 road games.  Dolphins are 12-3 ATS last 15 games overall and 9-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records.  The home team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.  Rams are 7-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 

The Pick: Miami -4.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Miami 20 / St. Louis 12

Game: Patriots -3.5 at Seahawks, O/U 45, 4:05pm on 10-14

Analysis: The Pats head on the road to a tough environment with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 8th against the run on defense.  The Pats have offense has looked fairly unstoppable the last 3 weeks and Hernandez getting back involved will make it even better.  Seattle comes in 3-2 and has already upset the Packers and Cowboys at home this season.  The defense is top 5 against the run and pass and has plenty of athleticism to contain the Pats and also get Brady off his spot, and he is a QB that is easily rattled by pressure.  The issue with the Seahawks is scoring points on offense, heavily reliant on running the ball with Lynch and that is the Pats D strength, stopping the run.  Seattle's D should keep them in this game and Wilson will have his best opportunity to shine against a 30th ranked New England pass D.

Line Movement: Opened -4 and 76% of Public Bets New England with Sharp $ on Seattle Bringing Line to -3.5 and -3 at Books

Bet Trends: Pats are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall.  Seahawks are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home, but 7-15 ATS last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.  Seahawks are 6-0 ATS at home where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.

The Pick:  Seahawks +4 @ 3 Units (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Pats 23 / Seahawks 20

Game: Bills +4 at Cardinals, O/U 43, 4:05pm on 10-14

Analysis: The Bills are 2-3 but have lost 2 straight by a total of 66 points and have not fared well on the road, let alone a trip back to the West Coast.  Buffalo is successful when running the ball, ranked 5th, and Fitzpatrick has to avoid the mistakes.  Buffalo's D ranks 30th against the run and 24th against the pass.  Arizona had a long week to recover from its first loss and is 3-0 at home.  The offense has struggled but against a porous Bills D should have chances to get the ball to Fitzgerald.  Defensively the Cardinals have a great D-Line and playmakers in the secondary and also the superior Special Teams.  The Bills only advantage is the D-Line against a Cards O-Line that allowed Kolb to get demolished last week.  The Cards are now also 1-dimensional losing both of its starting RB's to injury.

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 61% of Public Bets Arizona

Bet Trends: Bills are 4-10 ATS last 14 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Cardinals are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games and 5-0 ATS following a loss.  Bills are 17-7 ATS against NFC West opponents since 1992.

The Pick:  Cardinals -4 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cardinals 27 / Bills 17

Game: Vikings +1 at Redskins, O/U, 4:25pm on 10-14

Analysis: The 4-1 Vikings continue to impress with a balanced offense featuring one of the NFL's brightest young stars in Percy Harvin, and a defense that has been shutting teams down.  The Skins are 31st against the pass so Ponder should continue to play well.  The Skins have a great running game with Alfred Morris, but may struggle this week especially if RG3 is hurting and the Vikings can key on the run.  Washington has been in every game this season and easily could be 5-0, so a great matchup if RG3 plays. 

Line Movement: No Line Due to RG3's Injury, but Expect Him to Play

Bet Trends: Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS last 5 road games but just 4-10 ATS last 14 following a win.  Skins are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS and road team 4-0 ATS when these two teams meet.

The Pick:  Vikings +1 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Vikings 30 / Redskins 27

Game: Giants +6.5 at SF 49ers, O/U 45.5, 4:25pm on 10-14

Analysis: Giants are 3-2 and have to avoid a slow start in this one, because unlike the Browns, the 49ers will not allow them to comeback.  The Giants may get Nicks back and rank 3rd in passing offense, but defensively have struggled at times, and the West Coast trip factor in play here.  The 49ers have responded to their first loss with 34-0 and 45-3 wins, although against the Jets and Bills.  The 49ers rank 1st in rushing O and 2nd in passing D, and will make it difficult for Eli Manning, who has been prone to making mistakes early in games.  Alex Smith's finger injury could threaten the passing game and Giants likely try to take away the run stacking the box. 

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Steady at -6.5 Now with a Few Books at -7 and 57% of Public on Giants

Bet Trends: Giants are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 overall and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 vs. winning record teams.  49ers are 16-4-1 ATS last 21 games on grass and 21-7-3 ATS last 31 at home, but 4-11-2 ATS last 17 after a 14+ point win.  49ers are 11-3 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite. 

The Pick: 49ers -6.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: 49ers 30 / Giants 20

Game: Packers +3.5 at Texans, O/U 47.5, 8:20pm on 10-14

Analysis: The Packers come in 2-3 and really need a win to get back into the AFC North mix, and the 3 losses have come by 8, 2, and 3 points, and Rodgers tends to play better during Night games.  Green Bay is middle of the road on offensive and defensive categories this season and now without Benson at RB.  Houston is 5-0 and coming off a short week after a bit of a scare against the Jets, and also lost key defensive leader Cushing for the season.  The Texans will look to establish the run and should have little problem against the Packers D, while the Texans D ranks 3rd against the pass and JJ Watt will look to disrupt Rodgers. 

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 63% of Public $ on Packers Pushing Line to -3/-3.5

Bet Trends: Packers are 10-2 ATS last 12 following an ATS loss, but 0-4 ATS last 4 road games.  Texans are 3-0-1 ATS last 4 at home and 12-3-2 ATS last 17 overall.  Packers are 5-1 ATS the last 3 years as an underdog, rarely an underdog. 

The Pick: Packers +3.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Packers 27 / Texans 23

Game: Broncos +1 at Chargers, O/U 49.5, 8:30am on 10-15

Analysis: Denver is 2-3 and really needs a Win this week, but losses this year to Atlanta, Houston and the Pats, a brutal schedule.  Denver is efficient and ranks 5th in passing, but also a good ground attack, while defensively 11th against the pass with a good aggressive D.  Chargers are 3-2 with zero quality wins and rank 20th against the pass, while the Offense has looked unimpressive.  The Broncos D has struggled getting off the field on 3rd down and San Diego ranks in the top 1/3 of the NFL on 3rd down efficiency.  San Diego's large Offensive Tackles likely will struggle against the Broncos quick Defensive Ends Dumervil and Miller. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Sharp $ and Public $ Bet this Line Down to Even at Some Books, 74% of Public Bets Broncos

Bet Trends: Broncos are 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 0-4 ATS on Monday Night Football, also 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road.  Chargers are 7-0 ATS last 7 vs. the AFC and 7-3 ATS last 10 overall.  Favorite is 7-2-2 ATS last 11 meetings and Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS last 12 matchups.

The Pick:  Broncos +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Broncos 27 / Chargers 24